List of 4K products that became "cheap" faster than expected. - AVS Forum
Forum Jump: 
 
Thread Tools
post #1 of 20 Old 04-26-2013, 11:45 AM - Thread Starter
AVS Special Member
 
Mark Rejhon's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 1999
Location: North America
Posts: 8,124
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 2 Post(s)
Liked: 96
The hints/writing is on the wall:
4K is about to suddenly become much cheaper in the next two years

1. Some consumer cameras such as GoPro Hero3 Black can now do 4K (albiet at 15fps)
Early 4K Camera Price: under $500

2. The Seiki 4K HDTV just came out. (TigerDirect)
Early 4K TV Price: under $1500

3. Research on Alibaba and other B2B sites show we can now purchase 4K parts in factory quantities for about $430 per 39" 4K panel. (electronics / casing excluded).
Early 4K Glass (39") in Factory Quantity: under $500

4. Receivers now exist that can do 4K including upconversion. (e.g. Denon AVR-2113CI)
Early 4K Receiver Price: under $700

The hint is out now. Mark my words: Consumer 4K is about to hit seismically at far more mainstream, affordable prices, in a tsunami wave over the next two years.

Thanks,
Mark Rejhon

www.BlurBusters.com

BlurBusters Blog -- Eliminating Motion Blur by 90%+ on LCD for games and computers

Rooting for upcoming low-persistence rolling-scan OLEDs too!

Mark Rejhon is offline  
Sponsored Links
Advertisement
 
post #2 of 20 Old 04-26-2013, 12:35 PM
AVS Special Member
 
Otto Pylot's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: San Jose, CA
Posts: 7,089
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 96 Post(s)
Liked: 228
Will source material become as readily available in the same time frame or will 8k be just around the corner by that time as well, making 4k obsolete in a short time?
Otto Pylot is offline  
post #3 of 20 Old 04-26-2013, 01:02 PM
AVS Special Member
 
coolscan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 1,788
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 7 Post(s)
Liked: 101
Quote:
Originally Posted by Otto Pylot View Post

Will source material become as readily available in the same time frame or will 8k be just around the corner by that time as well, making 4k obsolete in a short time?
Nobody are or can produce 8K material except NHK's "8K" test material that are produced with "semi 8K" cameras.
Real big sensor movie quality cameras doesn't exist yet.
coolscan is offline  
post #4 of 20 Old 04-26-2013, 03:12 PM
AVS Addicted Member
 
rogo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 1999
Location: Sequoia, CA
Posts: 30,065
Mentioned: 1 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 35 Post(s)
Liked: 382
That #3 is very exciting indeed.

There is no difference in HDMI cables. If you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working.
rogo is online now  
post #5 of 20 Old 04-26-2013, 09:34 PM
AVS Special Member
 
irkuck's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: cyberspace
Posts: 3,476
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 16 Post(s)
Liked: 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by Otto Pylot View Post

Will source material become as readily available in the same time frame or will 8k be just around the corner by that time as well, making 4k obsolete in a short time?

8K is in the closet, it depends on the NHK when to put it on stage. Technically there is no problem with affordable 8K displays: 4K@50" is available in the 1k$ range and thus 8K@100" could be in the range of 10K$. Just as in the case of 4K, the 8K sources may come later.

irkuck
irkuck is offline  
post #6 of 20 Old 04-27-2013, 02:26 AM
AVS Special Member
 
Artwood's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Hoover, Alabama
Posts: 4,817
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 19 Post(s)
Liked: 197
Have the satellite people come up with the down-rezzing/compressors yet?

What will down-rezzed 4K look like?
Artwood is offline  
post #7 of 20 Old 04-27-2013, 02:52 AM
AVS Special Member
 
irkuck's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: cyberspace
Posts: 3,476
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 16 Post(s)
Liked: 60
Prices down does not change the fact 4K world is messy. More exactly it is brain-damaged at this time and now some prostethics is promised. It is really a messy world this one of ours....rolleyes.gif

irkuck
irkuck is offline  
post #8 of 20 Old 04-27-2013, 06:27 AM
AVS Special Member
 
blee0120's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Merillville, IN 46410
Posts: 3,528
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 11 Post(s)
Liked: 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by irkuck View Post

8K is in the closet, it depends on the NHK when to put it on stage. Technically there is no problem with affordable 8K displays: 4K@50" is available in the 1k$ range and thus 8K@100" could be in the range of 10K$. Just as in the case of 4K, the 8K sources may come later.
I'm guessing that we won't see an 8K at 100" for $10k for about 10 years
blee0120 is offline  
post #9 of 20 Old 04-27-2013, 09:03 AM
AVS Special Member
 
irkuck's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: cyberspace
Posts: 3,476
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 16 Post(s)
Liked: 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by blee0120 View Post

I'm guessing that we won't see an 8K at 100" for $10k for about 10 years

People were saying 4K sets will be very expensive and now bang, there is 4K 50 incher for 1.2 k$. Now you see, if there
is 4K 50 incher, a mosaic of 4 such panels makes a 100" set. There is absolutely no technical problem in making such sets
and the price could be 4x 50" + solid overhead = 10 k$.

irkuck
irkuck is offline  
post #10 of 20 Old 04-27-2013, 09:25 AM - Thread Starter
AVS Special Member
 
Mark Rejhon's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 1999
Location: North America
Posts: 8,124
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 2 Post(s)
Liked: 96
Quote:
Originally Posted by Otto Pylot View Post

Will source material become as readily available in the same time frame or will 8k be just around the corner by that time as well, making 4k obsolete in a short time?
See #1. Cameras doing 4K is going to fall FAST.
  • YouTube already supports 4K since 2011
  • The first cheap consumer 4K cameras finally arrived; and more in pipeline this year.
  • Some cell phone chips already support 4K. The new Omnivison OV16820 chip, for example, supports 4K at 60 frames per second. That's merely a chip for cell phones! Some upcoming phones will have this chip.
  • It costs under 10 dollars extra to add 4K playback support to an AppleTV. The 4K-capable playback chips aren't expensive anymore.
  • Many chipsets can now playback 4K content. The Intel HD Graphics 4000 in your new cheap mid-range laptop does it.

The 4K capable camera sensors are already arriving. It's not the weak link in the 4K equation. In fact, the chip in some cellphones today already actually has enough processing power for 4K but the cellphone makers does not enable this feature and save just two or three dollars of components because it's not worth it yet.

4K content is just waiting for chicken-and-egg.
Sensor pricing isn't going to be the bottleneck.
Just wait and see.

As for 8K, I think 4K has a decade or two before 8K gives way. The MUSE HD experiments in the 80's gave way to the early digital ATSC in the 90's, and only became popular in the 2000's. Consumer 8K will probably not be till the 2020's, and popular 8K probably not for sometime beyond (2030's, 2040's) due to the very incremental improvement it offers, but 8K will be done anyway once an 8K costs only $50 more than a 4K display (that's same price or cheaper than 1080p because manufacturers stopped manufacturing 1080p when 4K becomes ubiquitous/commonplace/essentially free feature. Just like manufacturers today have almost stopped making 720p). For now, this decade is still focussed on erasing price differential between 1080p and 4K. The 4K price collapse behind the scenes is slowly starting now -- and possibly a little earlier than Sony wanted. Even when 8K arrives, 4K won't become obsolete quickly. 1080p is going to become obsolete only very slowly, 4K even more slowly so.

Yes, the law of diminishing returns apply here, but there's definitely still a quite noticeable benefit for 4K at 10 feet away from a 60" TV when you play low-bitrate streams (remember: macroblock compression artifacts are MUCH bigger than a single pixel) -- the talk of 4K useless beyond a certain distance does not take into account of improvement to appearance of compression artifacts, at least 4K will force content makers to use higher bitrates which is nearly Always A Good Thing (e.g. even 4K @ 20Mbps looks better than 1080p @ 10Mbps for same screen size and view distance. More bitrate per angular vision, baby!). The manufacturers are still going to force 4K on the market, whether we like it or not. I'm happy as long as it helps produce an upwards trend in bitrate (the chief determinator of image quality)

Thanks,
Mark Rejhon

www.BlurBusters.com

BlurBusters Blog -- Eliminating Motion Blur by 90%+ on LCD for games and computers

Rooting for upcoming low-persistence rolling-scan OLEDs too!

Mark Rejhon is offline  
post #11 of 20 Old 04-27-2013, 10:33 PM
AVS Special Member
 
irkuck's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: cyberspace
Posts: 3,476
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 16 Post(s)
Liked: 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mark Rejhon View Post

....e.g. even 4K @ 20Mbps looks better than 1080p @ 10Mbps for same screen size and view distance. More bitrate per angular vision, baby!

OK, how about fair comparison of 4K @ 20 Mbps vs. 1080p @ 20 Mbps?

irkuck
irkuck is offline  
post #12 of 20 Old 04-27-2013, 10:58 PM - Thread Starter
AVS Special Member
 
Mark Rejhon's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 1999
Location: North America
Posts: 8,124
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 2 Post(s)
Liked: 96
Quote:
Originally Posted by irkuck View Post

OK, how about fair comparison of 4K @ 20 Mbps vs. 1080p @ 20 Mbps?
Equal-bitrate quality discussion is beyond the scope of this thread, IMHO.

I'm more interested in seeing a doubling or quadrupling of bitrates, which the transition to 4K will force. That's Always A Good Thing. Both you and me know that Netflix and many other streaming providers has no plans to blast Blu-Ray-league bitrates at us, unless they do it as 4K. This won't help projector videophiles who still want 100 Mbps 4K, but it will be a big improvement for those 60" HDTV's in living rooms (compared to today's 5 Mbps 1080p) -- 4K at 20Mbps is no-contest-better than 1080p at 5Mbps -- no argument there even when viewing a 60" HDTV from 10 feet away. Cheap 4K equipment will speed up the transition to higher bitrates.

Thanks,
Mark Rejhon

www.BlurBusters.com

BlurBusters Blog -- Eliminating Motion Blur by 90%+ on LCD for games and computers

Rooting for upcoming low-persistence rolling-scan OLEDs too!

Mark Rejhon is offline  
post #13 of 20 Old 04-27-2013, 11:58 PM
AVS Special Member
 
borf's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 1,172
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 14
Saw the Sony 4k sets tonight. Pretty nice but I still think 8k would be pushing it.
The Blackmagic production camera will do 4k for $4k when released in a few months.
Pretty exciting times.
borf is offline  
post #14 of 20 Old 04-28-2013, 12:11 AM
AVS Special Member
 
blee0120's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Merillville, IN 46410
Posts: 3,528
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 11 Post(s)
Liked: 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by irkuck View Post

People were saying 4K sets will be very expensive and now bang, there is 4K 50 incher for 1.2 k$. Now you see, if there
is 4K 50 incher, a mosaic of 4 such panels makes a 100" set. There is absolutely no technical problem in making such sets
and the price could be 4x 50" + solid overhead = 10 k$.
If 8K can come quicker and cheaper, I'm all for it. I'm just not getting my hopes up. But the new 4K tvs are coming down in price very quick. Even if we don't have sources for it, it will improve what we have now
blee0120 is offline  
post #15 of 20 Old 04-30-2013, 05:56 AM
AVS Special Member
 
[Irishman]'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,375
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 3 Post(s)
Liked: 47
Quote:
Originally Posted by Otto Pylot View Post

Will source material become as readily available in the same time frame or will 8k be just around the corner by that time as well, making 4k obsolete in a short time?

There will ALWAYS be a "Next Big Thing". 8K seems like a logical next step. It is encouraging that the introduction of 4K products for consumers is happening at lower price points than just the traditional bleeding-edge early adopters.

This bodes well 4K content being introduced sooner rather than later. The only medium that likely won't see 4K? Broadcast, over the air.

If I were to speculate about widespread 4K adoption, I'd say probably 5-6 years before 4K TVs and content become commoditized.

[Irishman] is offline  
post #16 of 20 Old 04-30-2013, 12:05 PM
AVS Addicted Member
 
rogo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 1999
Location: Sequoia, CA
Posts: 30,065
Mentioned: 1 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 35 Post(s)
Liked: 382
There will always be a "next big thing", I agree. Whether there will be a next actual thing in television remains to be seen. The market is shrinking. HD saturation has reached much of the developed world, many people are now spending most of their viewing hours watching non-HD sources (or very lightly HD) on smaller and smaller screens.

There is no difference in HDMI cables. If you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working.
rogo is online now  
post #17 of 20 Old 04-30-2013, 12:44 PM
AVS Special Member
 
KidHorn's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Derwood, Maryland
Posts: 2,775
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 105 Post(s)
Liked: 177
I don't care about crappy 4k lcd displays. I'm waiting for panasonic or samsung to produce a good 4K plasma. Hopefully Panasonic will make some before shutting down plasma production for good.
KidHorn is offline  
post #18 of 20 Old 04-30-2013, 01:05 PM
AVS Special Member
 
8mile13's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 3,716
Mentioned: 2 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 103 Post(s)
Liked: 191
Quote:
Originally Posted by KidHorn 
I don't care about crappy 4k lcd displays. I'm waiting for panasonic or samsung to produce a good 4K plasma. Hopefully Panasonic will make some before shutting down plasma production for good.

There is actually only one 4K Plasma, the 2010 TH-152UX1. Price $500.000
http://www.panasonic.com/business/Plasma/3D/3D-Plasma-TH-152UX1.asp


Zero chance we will see another 4K Plasma.
8mile13 is offline  
post #19 of 20 Old 05-12-2013, 08:56 AM
 
Auditor55's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Silicon Valley, CA.
Posts: 8,795
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 20
Auditor55 is offline  
post #20 of 20 Old 05-13-2013, 01:45 AM
KOF
Advanced Member
 
KOF's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 721
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 9 Post(s)
Liked: 88
4K LCDs still has its place among gamers at the very least. Of course, not that I'd actually buy a Seiki, I sure as hell wouldn't want to play my games at 30hz.
KOF is offline  
Reply Flat Panels General and OLED Technology

Tags
Denon Avr 2113ci Receiver
Gear in this thread

User Tag List

Thread Tools
Show Printable Version Show Printable Version
Email this Page Email this Page


Forum Jump: 

Posting Rules  
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off