Predict all the companies that will be out of the TV business in the next 5 years - Page 4 - AVS Forum
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post #91 of 190 Old 02-24-2014, 10:46 PM
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+something or other

Very clear.

Thanks.
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And it's a position that I've been compelled to warm up to over the last couple weeks.  Unfortunately.

None of it makes me happy either.

There is no difference in HDMI cables. If you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working.
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post #92 of 190 Old 02-25-2014, 09:45 AM - Thread Starter
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rogo: Do you think that Apple will ever get into the TV business--in other words will there ever be a TV monitor that has Apple's name on it?
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post #93 of 190 Old 02-25-2014, 08:11 PM
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So to be clear, no one has made much money selling TVs with part they don't also build in the flat-panel era. A notable exception is Vizio, which does this with the following "tricks":

1) It's a tiny company, personnel-wise
2) It pushes big volumes over small geography (it's not worldwide, sales are U.S.-centric)
3) It needs minimal R&D to do what it does
4) It can succeed on these tiny margins as a result of this tiny cost structure

LG and Samsung make profits (albeit not huge ones) because they make panels and TVs. Sony is zero-for-a-decade in profits because they have no flat-panel division. Panasonic now has no flat-panel division. It once made profits when it could run a plasma division at high enough volumes to sustain it. Once the volumes fell below a level that allowed for fab utilization to stay above the minimal profit level, the end of plasma at Panasonic was a given.

Sharp has both and, in fact, the TV side probably makes money. Unfortunately, Sharp has to run a fab so far below acceptable utilization that its TV+panel group is a killer. Also, it doesn't sell enough TVs to make near enough doing that anyway. Increasingly, Sharp's future is selling displays for smartphones, tablets and laptops. It's TV product line for 2014 is awful and reflects bizarre backward thinking that has no chance of succeeding against Vizio on one end or Sony/Samsung on the other...

People can believe that there is still time to right these ships and in Japan somehow time seems to move slowly on corporate cancers... But Panasonic nevertheless killed a perfectly working plasma factory that was amortized... And Sony has spun off its TV division... And Sharp is still skating on the edge of bankruptcy... It's naive to think the TV divisions of these companies are strong, core or likely to be survivors.




As to sharp's situation, very telling that vizio makes money selling those same panels manufactured by sharp

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post #94 of 190 Old 02-25-2014, 10:16 PM
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As to sharp's situation, very telling that vizio makes money selling those same panels manufactured by sharp

Very different channel strategy + much bigger volume.

There is no difference in HDMI cables. If you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working.
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post #95 of 190 Old 03-26-2014, 11:49 PM
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post #96 of 190 Old 03-27-2014, 06:20 AM
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In any case big TVs are on a death execution list by the millenials gang. biggrin.gif

 

But that information only means that young people aren't as interested in TVs.  There's nothing conclusive at all that they won't grow up someday, settle down, and want a large TV in the home someday.  Especially if they build a family or ever want to have friends over to watch something.

 

I see this as an age thing.  And age, by its nature, changes.  We're just seeing the initial hit because no one had tablets before.


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post #97 of 190 Old 03-27-2014, 04:56 PM
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The thing is, the UI/UX is so much better on tablets. It might someday get there on TVs, but it isn't right now.

And those young people are getting used to watching on the small screen.

I remain firmly convinced that:

(1) The big screen isn't completely dead

BUT

(2) It's going to be a lot less popular going forward

I know a lot of techie types who don't own a TV and are in their 30s and 40s. It's only anecdotal and I don't want to suggest that's going to be a mainstream approach by any means. But it's certainly happening and TV sales are certainly falling. And a shocking number of new homes I've seen are built without any good location for a television of any size.

This is what's called a "macro-trend". It's not a tsunami, it's not happening overnight. But it's happening. We considered for 5 years putting a TV in the bedroom. Every year we talked about doing it. Now, I'm unclear why I would bother. I have a 10-inch iPad, DirecTV and a Slingbox. We don't watch TV in bed and if someone gets sick... Well, there's a perfectly good solution for that problem.

My sense is that while the expert oddly see TV sales eventually pushing 250 million units a year, they'll come to recognize by decade's end that I am correct: The number will be closer to 200 million -- and falling.

It's really important to understand that video watching is more popular than ever as TV sales decline. The divergence of those two trends is not the kind of thing that reverses as "some people get older."

There are ~130 million HHs in the U.S but a bunch have no TV (Neilsen says 115M today have TV). Today that supports 34 million TV sales. It's pretty easy to imagine that falling to, say, 30 million even as households grow. (Rough math -- 120M HHs, 2 TVs per, 240M total... 8 yr cycle.... ) It's very easy to imagine lots of people I know never replacing their screen unless it breaks. It's hard to imagine too many people I know on a cycle that's any shorter than 4-5 years and I actually see that getting worse. Imagine if 4K actually takes... then what? The idea that anything will catalyze a spate of upgrades honestly seems absurd.

There is no difference in HDMI cables. If you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working.
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post #98 of 190 Old 03-27-2014, 11:02 PM
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well when I pass, I guess I'll have to leave testamentary instructions
to be interred with my 77" 4k oled since my milleniel kids won't be interested

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post #99 of 190 Old 03-27-2014, 11:11 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tgm1024 View Post

But that information only means that young people aren't as interested in TVs.  There's nothing conclusive at all that they won't grow up someday, settle down, and want a large TV in the home someday.  Especially if they build a family or ever want to have friends over to watch something.

I see this as an age thing.  And age, by its nature, changes.  We're just seeing the initial hit because no one had tablets before.

I agree that its cyclical, also people don't know what they want so the market is driven by ruthless seller tactics like frogging "LED TVs"
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post #100 of 190 Old 03-28-2014, 06:21 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tgm1024 View Post

But that information only means that young people aren't as interested in TVs.  There's nothing conclusive at all that they won't grow up someday, settle down, and want a large TV in the home someday.  Especially if they build a family or ever want to have friends over to watch something.

I see this as an age thing.  And age, by its nature, changes.  We're just seeing the initial hit because no one had tablets before.

I agree that its cyclical, also people don't know what they want so the market is driven by ruthless seller tactics like frogging "LED TVs"

 

I'm not convinced it's cyclical so much as I am convinced that we're overlooking an important factor.  As people age, their needs change.  And one of them is in growing families that would have several uses for large centralized TVs.  It's just as likely that we're seeing a non-cyclical new dynamic, and there's a natural hole carved out in the industry to fit it.  I don't see this as any kind of sign of some inevitable mortality of home larger display viewing.  Or less clumsy words to that effect.

 

BTW, my wife and I love looking at new construction when the opportunity shows up, and I've never seen a house without a place for a TV.  There's always a living room or family room wall or similar.  It would be suicide for a builder to design a house that weeds out those who want TVs.


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post #101 of 190 Old 03-28-2014, 10:37 PM
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Originally Posted by irkuck View Post

In any case big TVs are on a death execution list by the millenials gang. biggrin.gif
How many of that age group have their own money. Wireless devices and their service plans can get expensive quick. Tablets are a novelty.

"Bring out yer dead!".."Wait I'm not dead yet!"..(Sound Austrian here) "WRONG !!" (You know what happens next..)
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post #102 of 190 Old 03-29-2014, 04:00 AM
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Vinnie97 - I've bookmarked you when I want to take the green plunge further, I've got a closed loop GeoThermal system in my loghome 12 years now and it sure helped my heat bills this long winter compared to my neighbors.
They are now looking at installing GeoThermal system's.
Here in SE MIchigan their is a huge solar farm by I-96 & Lyon Township, around 3,000 panels!



How'd I miss this thread?
Predict " ...... "; the crystal ball, well anyone who can do that should NOT be banging away in front of a laptop but planning their wealth strategy on selling short those companies stock wink.gif

Sony and TV are long standing, yet will the Japanese pride allow them to give up and face reality?

The Japanese do realize if they shut down their in country manufacturing facilities their country is them doomed to reliance on foreign (Gaijin) for many products.
That is why each of the major auto manuf their keep their obligatory auto plants (both engine and vehicle) keep open, even though not a profit leader it is national pride.

I still see Sony in the market, hoping OLED will truly be cost competitive and of course awesome PQ.
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post #103 of 190 Old 03-29-2014, 10:52 AM
 
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^Very nice...I actually looked into geothermal last year, but I don't have enough physical space for them to get the drilling rig in! The next most efficient seems to be the heat pumps from Carrier and others. Couple that with solar and/or wind and you can also manage to stay nice and balmy. without breaking the bank wink.gif
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post #104 of 190 Old 03-29-2014, 09:58 PM - Thread Starter
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Could Black Holes stop LCD?
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post #105 of 190 Old 03-30-2014, 04:39 AM
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Originally Posted by tenthplanet View Post

How many of that age group have their own money. Wireless devices and their service plans can get expensive quick. Tablets are a novelty.

According to a survey 32 per cent of "trailing millennials" aged between 14 and 24 watch movies or TV shows on their laptop or desktop, while nine per cent use their smartphone, seven per cent use a tablet and 44 per cent watch television. The survey also found that 37 per cent of Americans are now "digital omnivores" who own a computer, smartphone and tablet, a figure which has grown by 42 per cent since previous year. The conclusion is inescapable: big display TV is entering terminal state.

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post #106 of 190 Old 03-30-2014, 05:16 AM
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"Millennials" ....are they the same as those zombies in The Walking Dead ?
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post #107 of 190 Old 03-30-2014, 08:07 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Artwood 
Could Black Holes stop LCD?

Scientists have no idea what happens when a LCd would fall into a black hole. Will that physical information disappear or will that physical information somehow be preserved? They just don't know..


They only thing that might be able to stop LCd is OLED. The more relevant question is ''who can stop the chinese?'' IMO
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post #108 of 190 Old 03-30-2014, 08:19 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by irkuck View Post
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by tenthplanet View Post

How many of that age group have their own money. Wireless devices and their service plans can get expensive quick. Tablets are a novelty.

According to a survey 32 per cent of "trailing millennials" aged between 14 and 24 watch movies or TV shows on their laptop or desktop, while nine per cent use their smartphone, seven per cent use a tablet and 44 per cent watch television. The survey also found that 37 per cent of Americans are now "digital omnivores" who own a computer, smartphone and tablet, a figure which has grown by 42 per cent since previous year. The conclusion is inescapable: big display TV is entering terminal state.

 

No, that's not the conclusion.  At least not from THAT particular set of data.

 

They're talking about people who will watch TV shows on their laptop or desktop.  Not people who will ONLY watch TV on their laptop or desktop.

 

This is just as explainable as a new viewing method showing up taking it's share.  Not the demise of the TV.  You're doing an unwarranted extrapolation of the data to leap from "X uses Y" to mean "X won't use Z at all soon".


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post #109 of 190 Old 03-30-2014, 10:20 AM
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^It seems you are rather stretching the logic by implying they are watching both on portables and big displays. There is limited time for getting with both.

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post #110 of 190 Old 03-30-2014, 10:23 AM
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^It seems you are rather stretching the logic by implying they are watching both on portables and big displays. There is limited time for getting with both.

 

That only says that less time will be spent watching TVs, not that TVs will vanish.

 

No, the stretch is in saying that adding a way of watching will completely doom another way of watching.

 

Hey, note: this might happen.  But we can't tell from that data.

 

Specifically, this line in your post:

Quote:
The conclusion is inescapable: big display TV is entering terminal state.

....is nonsense.  No such conclusion is remotely possible to make yet.

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post #111 of 190 Old 03-30-2014, 08:47 PM
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Originally Posted by 8mile13 View Post
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Artwood 
Could Black Holes stop LCD?

Scientists have no idea what happens when a LCd would fall into a black hole. Will that physical information disappear or will that physical information somehow be preserved? They just don't know..


They only thing that might be able to stop LCd is OLED. The more relevant question is ''who can stop the chinese?'' IMO


Larry F Weber and PDP technology version 3.0 patents? Quantum Dot with a Liquid Crystal frontend is the closest thing we have to analog OLED. I think new plasma technology shut down version 2.0 production. Of course, SID will reveal all on June 3rd through 6th.

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post #112 of 190 Old 03-31-2014, 03:41 AM
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Larry F Weber and PDP technology version 3.0 patents? Quantum Dot with a Liquid Crystal frontend is the closest thing we have to analog OLED. I think new plasma technology shut down version 2.0 production. Of course, SID will reveal all on June 3rd through 6th.
It does not matter any more what PDP stuff Larry F Weber is working on. PDP is on its way out. And the TV industry has very little interest in Quantum Dot stuff for the time being.
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post #113 of 190 Old 03-31-2014, 03:58 AM
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In any case big TVs are on a death execution list by the millenials gang. biggrin.gif

PC screens are getting bigger and bigger. Kids have always and will always buy what they can afford and buying big PC screens just puts off bigger screen TV purchases for them.
Big screen will be the norm as prices for them keep dropping.

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post #114 of 190 Old 03-31-2014, 05:41 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Weboh 


Larry F Weber and PDP technology version 3.0 patents? Quantum Dot with a Liquid Crystal frontend is the closest thing we have to analog OLED. I think new plasma technology shut down version 2.0 production. Of course, SID will reveal all on June 3rd through 6th.
It does not matter any more what PDP stuff Larry F Weber is working on. PDP is on its way out. And the TV industry has very little interest in Quantum Dot stuff for the time being.


Since there is a version 3.0, it is reasonable to assume everyone would have to retool, and thus Panasonic chose not to make any more plasmas. Sihaun COC Display Company seems to make important factory contributions to Korean plasmas at least is not pulling out. They don't write much, but they will be talking about it at SID, as well as Weber-- I think. If everyone were getting out, I assume they would be too. But they don't usually say much about anything, so silence or noise on their part is difficult to gauge for significance. There are many technologies mentioned at SID too, not just Plasma.

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post #115 of 190 Old 03-31-2014, 05:50 AM
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That only says that less time will be spent watching TVs, not that TVs will vanish.
No, the stretch is in saying that adding a way of watching will completely doom another way of watching.Hey, note: this might happen.  But we can't tell from that data.Specifically, this line in your post:
....is nonsense.  No such conclusion is remotely possible to make yet.

Smelling emerging trends obviously requires sharp vision and it is not an exact science. But if one sees explosive growth in tablets and how they are substituting other displays the prediction about the coming tectonic shift is sound. You also kind of make the first step for seeing this: the time spent watching TV will be less... and less, millenials will notice before long that big display is not primary necessity.
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PC screens are getting bigger and bigger. Kids have always and will always buy what they can afford and buying big PC screens just puts off bigger screen TV purchases for them.
Big screen will be the norm as prices for them keep dropping.

Eh, no. People en masse do not buy big itmes they don't use. Desktop PC's sales are crashing, big audio too. Portability is the trend.

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post #116 of 190 Old 03-31-2014, 05:57 AM
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Wow, there is nothing at the SID symposium website talking about the praticality of version 3.0 ... Keep your fingers crossed?

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post #117 of 190 Old 03-31-2014, 06:13 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tgm1024 View Post

That only says that less time will be spent watching TVs, not that TVs will vanish.
No, the stretch is in saying that adding a way of watching will completely doom another way of watching.Hey, note: this might happen.  But we can't tell from that data.Specifically, this line in your post:
....is nonsense.  No such conclusion is remotely possible to make yet.

Smelling emerging trends obviously requires sharp vision and it is not an exact science. But if one sees explosive growth in tablets and how they are substituting other displays the prediction about the coming tectonic shift is sound. You also kind of make the first step for seeing this: the time spent watching TV will be less... and less, millenials will notice before long that big display is not primary necessity.

 

Even if it establishes itself in that way: "big display is not primary necessity", it still doesn't come remotely close to your statement of:

Quote:
The conclusion is inescapable: big display TV is entering terminal state.

...which is completely unwarranted.  That's not the conclusion that can be drawn, and it sure isn't inescapable.

 

 

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post #118 of 190 Old 03-31-2014, 06:58 AM
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Since there is a version 3.0, it is reasonable to assume everyone would have to retool, and thus Panasonic chose not to make any more plasmas. Sihaun COC Display Company seems to make important factory contributions to Korean plasmas at least is not pulling out. They don't write much, but they will be talking about it at SID, as well as Weber-- I think. If everyone were getting out, I assume they would be too. But they don't usually say much about anything, so silence or noise on their part is difficult to gauge for significance. There are many technologies mentioned at SID too, not just Plasma.
Sihaun COC Display Company? Or do you mean Sichuan COC Display Devices? When your look at their site there seems to be not much going on..

When you look at 2014 LG and Samsung Plasma offering you can see that they are no longer interested in Plasma R&D. It is just a matter of time, one or two years, before they will announce that they no longer will make consumer Plasma's.

Do you have some PDP Technology version 3.0 patents links, which PDP manufacturers use it or any info at all?
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post #119 of 190 Old 03-31-2014, 11:53 AM
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I have 3 kids and they both watch TV and watch things on their apple devices and laptops/PCs. Sometimes simultaneously. I think they would prefer to use the TV but there's so much more content available online. My daughter watches movies online that are still in theaters. Her friends do the same. The kids like using a handheld device because they can go in their room and watch whatever they want and my wife and I can't monitor them like we could if they watched TV in the family room. Given the option of watching something specific on a TV or a handheld device, they always choose the TV. They mainly watch on a small screen when what they want to see isn't available on TV.

I've noticed many of the kids around my neighborhood are glued to their cell phones. Constantly checking for messages. I hate to think of what the long term consequences will be. This is one of the reasons I refuse to get my kids smart phones.
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post #120 of 190 Old 03-31-2014, 12:12 PM
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Originally Posted by 8mile13 View Post
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Weboh 


Since there is a version 3.0, it is reasonable to assume everyone would have to retool, and thus Panasonic chose not to make any more plasmas. Sihaun COC Display Company seems to make important factory contributions to Korean plasmas at least is not pulling out. They don't write much, but they will be talking about it at SID, as well as Weber-- I think. If everyone were getting out, I assume they would be too. But they don't usually say much about anything, so silence or noise on their part is difficult to gauge for significance. There are many technologies mentioned at SID too, not just Plasma.
Sihaun COC Display Company? Or do you mean Sichuan COC Display Devices? When your look at their site there seems to be not much going on..

When you look at 2014 LG and Samsung Plasma offering you can see that they are no longer interested in Plasma R&D. It is just a matter of time, one or two years, before they will announce that they no longer will make consumer Plasma's.

Do you have some PDP Technology version 3.0 patents links, which PDP manufacturers use it or any info at all?


The only thing I have memorized is this http://displayweek.org/2014/Program/50thAnniversaryofthePlasmaDisplayPanel.aspx ... There is [also] a recent 2013 Sichaun COC patent which I stumbled acrossed. It may be too early too see papers on it, and I hope there were breakthroughs, though I am skeptical of plasma on plastic.

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