Originally Posted by specuvestor
I can assure people that what you say is irrelevant because :
1) OLED is unlikely to be in huge sizes (or even 4k) in the next 3 years... so you can use 4k as a strawman for OLED's demise the next 3 years as well
There is a reason why manufacturers sell 55" at $8000 rather than 32" at $4000. Please don't consistently assume top people who put billions into capex and nurturing an entire supply chain are idiots.
Your thinking is contradictory: Indeed it is unlikely there will be huge (and 4K) OLEDs in the next 3 ys. On the other hand, manufs must bring to the market in the beginning biggest OLEDs in the main line (=55") in order to establish shining presence and attract hig-end buyers. But here is the problem: with the current and coming big size LCDs, OLED is not so shiny anymore. High-end buyers will be distracted by the relative smallness of OLED sets even if the PQ is brilliant. There is similar effect at the very high-end of LCD: people having choice between the Sharp Elite 60-70" Übersets and the plain simple 80" often select the 80" since its PQ is good enough, price is way lower, and size is so much more impressive. While such considerations do not imply OLED demise, they mean OLED will be hard pressed from every side by the LCD and result of this far is from the mantra "OLED will prevail no matter what".
Originally Posted by specuvestor
2) Obviously you are not aware that when we say "small" in the industry we mean phones & CE, and medium size we mean anything smaller than 10" (Notice how iPad and netbooks are <10"?) I assume your "small" means desktops. When OLED mobile devices are mature, you can be sure desktops will be the next new frontier.
In fact my small excludes desktops. But this does not matter: OLED devices are gestating ever longer. At present it looks unlikely they can make big inroads even in the smartphone segment - what is available is mainly due to Samsung which most likely heavily subsidizes it. OLED tablets, laptops and desktops are fantasy talk. Facing this and knowing the TV market is even more competitive, the future of OLED looks bleak. BTW, a nice illustration of the current status of LCD vs. OLED are comparisons between the displays of fresh smartphones: HTC One X LCD and Samsung Galaxy III OLED. Both are said to be fantastic to the point the display technology does not play role in the selection, and this means OLED has lost its definitive PQ advantage.
Originally Posted by S. Hiller
What advance? Are you referring to picture quality? Fundamentally it seems like it's stuck and has nowhere to go. We need emissive tech. (Beautiful new iPad screen and the Elite notwithstanding...)
Yeah, we need technology for technology's sake
. Now such 'we' is limited to nerds and junkies, consumers vote with money buying things which are good-enough.
Originally Posted by mattg3
Stupid is a bit harsh.Im talking about the future which could be five years from now.New technology will move things forward no matter what the economic state is when they first show up.When i bought my first pioneer plasma in 2003 for 4 grand people thought i was nuts but everyone wanted to see it.Nothing existed like it before and flat screens in a big box tv had just started to show up with the Sony Wega models.Look what happen.
Flat displays were a huge step up. By comparison, the step from the LCD to OLED is small at best in the present circumstances., maybe even nonexisting taking the advancements in the LCD. I mean this in the above sense, e.g. OLED PQ is bit better but size not so attractive to justify the expense. BTW, there is every reason to believe that in 5ys time LCD tech will be much improved.