OLED TVs: Technology Advancements Thread - Page 271 - AVS Forum
Forum Jump: 
 41Likes
Reply
 
Thread Tools
post #8101 of 10439 Old 01-11-2014, 12:00 PM
 
vinnie97's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Nunya
Posts: 11,657
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 213 Post(s)
Liked: 1000
^What if it's both? Will your head explode? wink.gif
Quote:
Originally Posted by 8mile13 View Post


Few years from now all of them will use inkjet printing because that will bring down production costs. Till then OLED TVs remains expensive..

oled-display.net ''we think the solution is InkJet Printing''

- (16-12-2013) Merck is now involved in talks with LG Display to jointly develop a printing method for the production of OLED

- Kateeva (YIELDJet, inkjet printer) also plans to work with some Korean giant ->Samsung<-

- Sony and Panasonic plan to use inkjet printing technology
Well, at least the Koreans have finally reached the conclusion of the Japanese, but the latter giants found it was still too costly and disbanded their R&D relationship...and are building nothing but prototypes at best.
vinnie97 is offline  
Sponsored Links
Advertisement
 
post #8102 of 10439 Old 01-11-2014, 12:19 PM
AVS Special Member
 
RichB's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 1999
Location: Massachusetts
Posts: 8,554
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 74 Post(s)
Liked: 209
Quote:
Originally Posted by 8mile13 View Post

^^ Kim speaks about OLED manufacturing costs a it stands now (that includes LG smile.gif)
So..this year Kim said ''three to four years away''. A year ago he said ''two to three years away''. Wonder what he will say next year rolleyes.gif 2015 ''I'm terribly sorry to say this, but it will take more time. I believe it will take around four to five years'' tongue.gif

http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/2014/01/09/reviewed-ces-hs-kim/4400101/

He is likely to say: Oh, sh*t, LG and the Chinese are way ahead of us.
Time ot borrow the technology and sort it out later in the courts tongue.gif

- Rich

Oppo Beta Group

Oppo BDP-105D | Oppo HA-1 | Oppo PM-1 | Parasound A51 | Revel Salon, Voice, Studio | Velodyne HGS-15
RichB is online now  
post #8103 of 10439 Old 01-11-2014, 12:23 PM
AVS Special Member
 
irkuck's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: cyberspace
Posts: 3,475
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 16 Post(s)
Liked: 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by vinnie97 View Post

Samsung isn't even using the same manufacturing method...how would he know the manufacturing costs incurred by LG? If yields are as high as 70% (big IF) in the case of WOLED, his assessment can't be construed as universal. I doubt they've become amicable to the point of sharing balance sheets.

It is logical to assume that Kim is on the very optimistic side of things, otherwise his vice-president position would be in danger. Realistically then it is 5+ ys to see if OLED ever matures to be ready for market share battle. Now, in 5 ys time the good ole' LCD tech will make yet another significant jump as it is always doing squeezing even more. OLED thus looks a niche at best. Flexibility of LCD is suich that even bending is not OLED exclusive anymore.

irkuck
irkuck is offline  
post #8104 of 10439 Old 01-11-2014, 12:27 PM
 
vinnie97's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Nunya
Posts: 11,657
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 213 Post(s)
Liked: 1000
So you think LCD has limitless room for improvement? I hope it doesn't overstay its welcome like the old tubes. Next to resolution improvements, I just see a brick wall. There is a promise of improvement with projects like the Dolby initiative (and maybe even this Quantum Dots malarkey), but the actual performance of consumer models still leaves a lot to be desired. Why any videophile would be content with such a state of things, I have no idea.
vinnie97 is offline  
post #8105 of 10439 Old 01-11-2014, 12:55 PM
AVS Special Member
 
tgm1024's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 5,814
Mentioned: 1 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 89 Post(s)
Liked: 549
Quote:
Originally Posted by Audio Karma View Post
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by vinnie97 View Post

When did the Samsung vice president speak for LG? I remain cautiously optimistic.
I'm not seeing a versus as much as I'm seeing a synergy being promoted.

We will find out in the coming years what technology wins out here....QD or OLED smile.gif

 

Are we talking about the same thing here?  I still think you're missing that the QD as used in (say) the X900A are still only providing the light to go through an LCD array.  It's *still* not an emissive display.  It's not the pie-in-the-sky hope of a fully QD display where each QD is a subpixel as with OLED/plasma.


Well Vinnie97, one of the kindest and most helpful and respected members here, got one of these. I wonder how much longer before I get such a message...
You have been banned for the following reason: No reason was specified.
Date the ban will be lifted: Never
tgm1024 is online now  
post #8106 of 10439 Old 01-11-2014, 02:17 PM
Member
 
ynotgoal's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 101
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 9 Post(s)
Liked: 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo View Post

The history of TV price declines, for what it's worth, is that 30% compounded reductions are about the best you will ever see.

Using that and starting with $13,000.....
2014: $9100
2015: $6370
2016: $4450
2017: $3121

(Using $10,000 as a baseline, you get $7000, $4900, $3430, $2400 incidentally. Of course, 4 years of compounded 30% reductions is a lot of "ifs" turning into reality.)

That, of course, is nowhere near price parity as in 2013, a flagship 55-inch LCD launches at $2500 and falls lower later in the model year. It's hard to imagine a flagship LCD will be anymore than that in 2017, but it's easy to imagine it will be <$2000.

Fortunately, I was using cost, not price, so I wouldn't be surprised to see OLED reach price parity sometime around 2017. Of course, I wouldn't be floored by the opposite either. The cost reductions are driven by the learning curve and volumes. At this point, volumes are so infinitesimal -- and will remain so through all of next year -- we realistically won't see much in the way of cost reductions until 2015, despite the graph you see above.

The Samsung quote was in reference to price. So how does 3-4 years compare to the predictions here? As noted, Rogo's prediction for 2017 is that OLED would still be more expensive than LCD. So this is noteworthy but not surprising. We've already known Samsung wasn't going to have a production facility built even by the end of 2015. By the way, at $8500 in 2013 they are ahead of the predicted price curve. Also, at CES LG confirmed the first full OLED gen 8 mass production facility is on track for q4 and are planning on releasing three 4K OLED sets by the end of the year. According to the video below, [Hisense] company officials say they plan to bring their OLED TV to the market by Q4 2014 which also confirms LG's production ramp expectation.
http://www.oled-info.com/hisense-aims-bring-their-oled-tv-market-q4-2013

Samsung will continue to have OLEDs on the market as they do now. Samsung is exploring many production methods. We'll see how long they cede the largest part of the OLED TV market to LG and Chinese manufacturers.
Quote:
Originally Posted by 8mile13 View Post

Few years from now all of them will use inkjet printing because that will bring down production costs. Till then OLED TVs remains expensive..

oled-display.net ''we think the solution is InkJet Printing''

- (16-12-2013) Merck is now involved in talks with LG Display to jointly develop a printing method for the production of OLED

- Kateeva (YIELDJet, inkjet printer) also plans to work with some Korean giant ->Samsung<-

- Sony and Panasonic plan to use inkjet printing technology

There are also other methods being pursued at gen 8 sizes. Aixtron and Manz will have a gen 8 organic vapor phase deposition (OVPD) machine in the next few months which also promises lower costs and faster production time.

http://www.ledsmagazine.com/ugc/2014/01/08/aixtron-and-manz-ag-partner-to-develop-deposition-system-for-oled-manufacturing.html

The new system will be assembled in the coming months in a clean room at AIXTRON. As well as demonstrating the proprietary OVPD® process and its scalability for large substrates, a key focus will be the qualification of new components. Alongside reduced manufacturing costs, increased output is the prerequisite for achieving greater market penetration for OLED technology. This in turn requires the launch of more efficient production processes in conjunction with the use of large-format substrates.
ynotgoal is offline  
post #8107 of 10439 Old 01-11-2014, 02:35 PM
Senior Member
 
rmongiovi's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 478
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 26
Quote:
Originally Posted by vinnie97 View Post

Why any videophile would be content with such a state of things, I have no idea.

And why would any audiophile be content with MP3? Hence the "sky is falling" reaction to the OLED failure to launch and the withdrawal of Panasonic from the plasma market.

Unfortunately, our commodity focused economy is the enemy of the enthusiast. It's especially disappointing when technological advances could deliver so much more.
Bikerduck likes this.
rmongiovi is offline  
post #8108 of 10439 Old 01-11-2014, 02:48 PM
 
vinnie97's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Nunya
Posts: 11,657
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 213 Post(s)
Liked: 1000
True...though concerning the audiophile analogy, lossless audio can still be had for consumption. Perhaps a more apt analogy would be the demise of SACD and DVD-A (though, thankfully, there are also high-resolution audio downloads available). Sorry for the aside...
vinnie97 is offline  
post #8109 of 10439 Old 01-11-2014, 05:17 PM
AVS Addicted Member
 
rogo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 1999
Location: Sequoia, CA
Posts: 30,055
Mentioned: 1 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 20 Post(s)
Liked: 375
Quote:
Originally Posted by irkuck View Post

It is logical to assume that Kim is on the very optimistic side of things, otherwise his vice-president position would be in danger. Realistically then it is 5+ ys to see if OLED ever matures to be ready for market share battle. Now, in 5 ys time the good ole' LCD tech will make yet another significant jump as it is always doing squeezing even more. OLED thus looks a niche at best. Flexibility of LCD is suich that even bending is not OLED exclusive anymore.

Yes, we are, again, back to 5 years for the battle. This tech has always been 5 years from truly doing battle.
Quote:
Originally Posted by 8mile13 View Post

^^ Kim speaks about OLED manufacturing costs a it stands now (that includes LG smile.gif)
So..this year Kim said ''three to four years away''. A year ago he said ''two to three years away''. Wonder what he will say next year rolleyes.gif 2015 ''I'm terribly sorry to say this, but it will take more time. I believe it will take around four to five years'' tongue.gif

http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/2014/01/09/reviewed-ces-hs-kim/4400101/

Like fusion, it's always ever more slightly out of our grasp....

There is no difference in HDMI cables. If you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working.
rogo is offline  
post #8110 of 10439 Old 01-11-2014, 06:46 PM
Advanced Member
 
slacker711's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 603
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 33 Post(s)
Liked: 109
Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo View Post

Yes, we are, again, back to 5 years for the battle. This tech has always been 5 years from truly doing battle.

That depends on the battle. It is completely unknown whether OLED's will be able to replace LCD's. That is at least five years out and anything in tech that is five years out is a matter of if, not when. I agree that printing is the only likely solution here and while Kateeva's solution sounds good, I will need more evidence that they are a near-term possibility.

The battle for competitive pricing on the high-end of the television market is a very different battle. That is what matters to most on this thread so I think conflating the two issues does little good. A few years ago, I questioned whether LG's WRGB approach would have some performance issues that would mean it was unsuitable for production. The reviews from last year put that issue to rest. The question then becomes whether LG can manufacture the sets at a competitive price. Samsung has mastered vapour deposition using RGB, so that part of the manufacturing process is simply a matter of time. Sharp has done well enough with IGZO on LCD's to bring the technology to market but the OLED version of IGZO is slightly different. It is an open question whether LG will be able to master the technology but I doubt that they spend the money for the Gen 8 fab unless they have a roadmap that indicates that it is possible. As you have pointed out, IGZO with competitive yields will have pricing that is not substantially more than a-si.

I have pointed this out before but the fact that Samsung's mobile RGB LTPS OLED's are competitively priced with LTPS LCD's is a pretty good indicator that material costs are not a significant barrier to the ultimate pricing. If LG gets decent yields with their OLED's, they will grab a substantial chunk of the high-end television market.
vinnie97, agkss and Beelinator like this.
slacker711 is offline  
post #8111 of 10439 Old 01-12-2014, 02:07 AM
AVS Addicted Member
 
rogo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 1999
Location: Sequoia, CA
Posts: 30,055
Mentioned: 1 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 20 Post(s)
Liked: 375
Quote:
Originally Posted by slacker711 View Post

That depends on the battle. It is completely unknown whether OLED's will be able to replace LCD's. That is at least five years out and anything in tech that is five years out is a matter of if, not when. I agree that printing is the only likely solution here and while Kateeva's solution sounds good, I will need more evidence that they are a near-term possibility.

Right, "if" not "when". And, yes, Kateeva is a maybe.
Quote:
The battle for competitive pricing on the high-end of the television market is a very different battle. That is what matters to most on this thread so I think conflating the two issues does little good. A few years ago, I questioned whether LG's WRGB approach would have some performance issues that would mean it was unsuitable for production. The reviews from last year put that issue to rest. The question then becomes whether LG can manufacture the sets at a competitive price. Samsung has mastered vapour deposition using RGB, so that part of the manufacturing process is simply a matter of time. Sharp has done well enough with IGZO on LCD's to bring the technology to market but the OLED version of IGZO is slightly different. It is an open question whether LG will be able to master the technology but I doubt that they spend the money for the Gen 8 fab unless they have a roadmap that indicates that it is possible. As you have pointed out, IGZO with competitive yields will have pricing that is not substantially more than a-si.

The problem with all this is that we are talking about competing on price with high-end TVs despite much smaller volumes. Achieving that may mean choosing to forgo profits in the hope of achieving LCD replacement down the road. Otherwise. it seems implausible you can just will OLED to $2500 for a 55-inch screen despite having low-ish volumes to back it. The entire high-end TV market is currently only about 10-20% of the 50-inch-and-up market. The latter of those is a maybe 30 million unit market in the near term. So OLED is competing in a space that is ~3-5 million units total per year. That's tough to get serious volume out of.
Quote:
I have pointed this out before but the fact that Samsung's mobile RGB LTPS OLED's are competitively priced with LTPS LCD's is a pretty good indicator that material costs are not a significant barrier to the ultimate pricing. If LG gets decent yields with their OLED's, they will grab a substantial chunk of the high-end television market.

So at $3000-5000, I'd say they could get maybe 20% of the market, assuming they (a) offer multiple sizes and (b) make them flat. You are looking at <1 million units per year in that scenario. It's worth noting -- again -- that $2500 is the most expensive 2K LCD in the U.S. right now. And Vizio is attempting to blow up the high end of the market with their P series. While the goal is to decimate Sharp, Panasonic, Toshiba and Sony, if they are successful, OLED becomes collateral damage.

None of this is to say the problem isn't soluble, but it is to say the landscape has gotten meaningfully worse -- again -- for OLED in the past 12 months. Samsung has essentially put its plans on hold while it searches for a production method (SMS is not it, whether the OLED material is deposited as a liquid or vapor). LG effectively delayed by an entire year. China got another year to move LCD production forward. Vizio got a chance to look at the U.S. market and decide that with some high-end product priced well, it could blow everyone up.

OLED is fighting uphill at every turn.

There is no difference in HDMI cables. If you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working.
rogo is offline  
post #8112 of 10439 Old 01-12-2014, 02:26 AM
AVS Special Member
 
irkuck's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: cyberspace
Posts: 3,475
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 16 Post(s)
Liked: 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by vinnie97 View Post

So you think LCD has limitless room for improvement? I hope it doesn't overstay its welcome like the old tubes. Next to resolution improvements, I just see a brick wall. There is a promise of improvement with projects like the Dolby initiative (and maybe even this Quantum Dots malarkey), but the actual performance of consumer models still leaves a lot to be desired. Why any videophile would be content with such a state of things, I have no idea.

If you look at the LCD development from historical perspective it is amazingly shocking. My favorite is the claim "LCD will never get to big size which will be exclusive domain of plasma". This of course does not imply the same development pace in the future but there are many signs of it: breaking the size (with 110" and 120") and resolution barrier (ultra dense mobile panels).
Quote:
Originally Posted by slacker711 View Post

That depends on the battle. It is completely unknown whether OLED's will be able to replace LCD's. That is at least five years out and anything in tech that is five years out is a matter of if, not when. I agree that printing is the only likely solution here and while Kateeva's solution sounds good, I will need more evidence that they are a near-term possibility.

Yeah, talking now about replacement of LCD is sci-fi/fantasy. Even the Kim Dzong Un of displays, the vice-president of Samsung display H S Kim gives 5+ ys time frame to see what comes of OLED.
Quote:
Originally Posted by slacker711 View Post

I have pointed this out before but the fact that Samsung's mobile RGB LTPS OLED's are competitively priced with LTPS LCD's is a pretty good indicator that material costs are not a significant barrier to the ultimate pricing.

Competitive pricing of Samsung mobile OLED's might be due to hidden subsidies or not accounting for full costs of development. This is OK if there is perspective of OLED spreading out and mobile area is now the benchmark: if there are signs OLED displays showing in 2014 in more smartphones, in some phablets/tablets - even in an ultra high-end segment - that would be positive. Otherwise prospects are dim especially that comparisons show no clear advantage of mobile OLED over best mobile LCD displays.

irkuck
irkuck is offline  
post #8113 of 10439 Old 01-12-2014, 06:10 AM
Advanced Member
 
David_B's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: delete me
Posts: 983
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 26
4k has derailed OLED there's no doubt about it.

Both seem to be the next 3D TV though.

Unless..

Apple does either.

If I where Samsung or LG I'd be trying to convince Apple to make a 30 inch Retina OLED.
gus738 likes this.

buytme
David_B is offline  
post #8114 of 10439 Old 01-12-2014, 06:53 AM
Advanced Member
 
slacker711's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 603
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 33 Post(s)
Liked: 109
Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo View Post

The problem with all this is that we are talking about competing on price with high-end TVs despite much smaller volumes. Achieving that may mean choosing to forgo profits in the hope of achieving LCD replacement down the road. Otherwise. it seems implausible you can just will OLED to $2500 for a 55-inch screen despite having low-ish volumes to back it. The entire high-end TV market is currently only about 10-20% of the 50-inch-and-up market. The latter of those is a maybe 30 million unit market in the near term. So OLED is competing in a space that is ~3-5 million units total per year. That's tough to get serious volume out of.
So at $3000-5000, I'd say they could get maybe 20% of the market, assuming they (a) offer multiple sizes and (b) make them flat. You are looking at <1 million units per year in that scenario. It's worth noting -- again -- that $2500 is the most expensive 2K LCD in the U.S. right now. And Vizio is attempting to blow up the high end of the market with their P series. While the goal is to decimate Sharp, Panasonic, Toshiba and Sony, if they are successful, OLED becomes collateral damage.

The capex associated with LG converting an a-si LCD fab to the world's first commercial Gen 8 IGZO OLED fab is ~$660 million. That buys you a total capacity of 1.87 million 55" televisions a year.

That is cheap from a capex perspective and that is with the added burden of being the first to buy some of the equipment. That number should only go down if LG pursues further Gen 8 fabs.

From a bill of materials perspective, nearly all of the development/volumes from mobile OLED's can be leveraged into their television efforts. There may be slightly different versions of the materials but they arent reinventing the wheel when it comes to the various layers that make up a WRGB OLED stack. Also, while unit volumes are low, LG's first fab is going to have a total area capacity that is already half of all of Samsung's mobile capacity. The economics of the materials should not be significantly different than mobile except for any increase in the number of layers or thickness to increase longevity.

LG will also need a custom RGB filter for their OLED's versus a LCD. The glass encapsulation should be similar to mobile. I imagine that the driver IC will be different than LCD's and will be more expensive but this is a small component of the total bill of materials. OTOH, eliminating the backlight is a big material savings in the high-end television market.

So what exactly do you see being cost prohibitive due to the low volumes? I continue to see this being primarily a yield story. Get the yields, and the rest can fall into place...at least when we are talking about the high-end of the market.
slacker711 is offline  
post #8115 of 10439 Old 01-12-2014, 07:49 AM
AVS Special Member
 
coolscan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 1,786
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 6 Post(s)
Liked: 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by David_B View Post

4k has derailed OLED there's no doubt about it.
Rubbish!
4K hasn't derailed something nobody manage to manufacture to a reasonable price.
Quote:
Both seem to be the next 3D TV though.
Only in the sense that 8K is the next step regardless of technology.
Quote:
Unless..

Apple does either.

If I where Samsung or LG I'd be trying to convince Apple to make a 30 inch Retina OLED.
Apple isn't a company that magically solve technical problems other companies have problems with.

They are a design, repacking and marketing company, that is wholly dependent on what other companies manage to manufacture for them.
If Apple could solve the OLED manufacturing problems we would have seen Apple OLED monitors already.
coolscan is offline  
post #8116 of 10439 Old 01-12-2014, 08:02 AM
AVS Special Member
 
tgm1024's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 5,814
Mentioned: 1 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 89 Post(s)
Liked: 549
Quote:
Originally Posted by coolscan View Post
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by David_B View Post

4k has derailed OLED there's no doubt about it.
Rubbish!
4K hasn't derailed something nobody manage to manufacture to a reasonable price.

 

Not "derailed", but to say that the coinciding higher resolution didn't complicate the emergence of a newly productized technology isn't fair either.  Even 4K LCD's are tougher to make than 2K LCD's.


Well Vinnie97, one of the kindest and most helpful and respected members here, got one of these. I wonder how much longer before I get such a message...
You have been banned for the following reason: No reason was specified.
Date the ban will be lifted: Never
tgm1024 is online now  
post #8117 of 10439 Old 01-12-2014, 09:41 AM
AVS Special Member
 
andy sullivan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: sun city west AZ
Posts: 3,040
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 34 Post(s)
Liked: 131
I think that if Vizio is successful with the new P Series (big sales) they will not sit on their laurels. What Vizio follows up the P Series with will force the development of OLED from Samsung, LG, or other Chinese Manufactures. The time frame will small and it will be sink or swim for OLED.
andy sullivan is online now  
post #8118 of 10439 Old 01-12-2014, 10:25 AM
AVS Special Member
 
coolscan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 1,786
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 6 Post(s)
Liked: 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by tgm1024 View Post

Not "derailed", but to say that the coinciding higher resolution didn't complicate the emergence of a newly productized technology isn't fair either. 

How do you get that argument to hang together?
They can't even mass-produce OLED TV size in any significant number, ............period.
That's the real and only problem for OLED.

How does the launch of 4K LCD influence that?

If OLED screens was available below fantasy prices, even in just HD resolution, they could compete with 4K LCD.
Quote:
Even 4K LCD's are tougher to make than 2K LCD's.
Seriously....No. The difference isn't even significant.

4K LCD has been manufactured and available since around 2001.

There is nothing new and unknown in the manufacturing of 4K LCD like it is for OLED.
Quote:
The IBM T220 was introduced in June 2001 and was the first monitor to natively support a resolution of 3840×2400.

IBM T221 started out as an experimental technology from the flat panel display group at IBM Thomas J. Watson Research Center. In 2000, a prototype 22.2 in TFTLCD, code-named "Bertha", was made in a joint effort between IBM Research and IBM Japan. This display had a pixel format of 3840×2400 (QUXGA-W) with 204 ppi. On 10 November 2000, IBM announced the shipment of the prototype monitors to U.S. Department of Energy's Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California. Later in 27 June 2001, IBM announced the production version of the monitor, known as T220. Later in November 2001, IBM announced its replacement, IBM T221. On 19 March 2002, IBM announced lowering the price of IBM T221 from US$17,999 to US$8,399. Later in 2 September 2003, IBM announced the availability of the 9503-DG5 model.
IBM and Chi Mei Group of Taiwan formed a joint venture called IDTech[5][6] in 2001 to manufacture the T221 in Japan.

WIKI
Original Press release; ARMONK, N.Y. - 27 Jun 2001:
coolscan is offline  
post #8119 of 10439 Old 01-12-2014, 10:28 AM
AVS Special Member
 
RichB's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 1999
Location: Massachusetts
Posts: 8,554
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 74 Post(s)
Liked: 209
Quote:
Originally Posted by andy sullivan View Post

I think that if Vizio is successful with the new P Series (big sales) they will not sit on their laurels. What Vizio follows up the P Series with will force the development of OLED from Samsung, LG, or other Chinese Manufactures. The time frame will small and it will be sink or swim for OLED.

Other manufacturers cannot compete using OLED since it cannot be price competitve.
If for some reason, other manufacturers need to respond to Vizio (LCD) it would likely be with their own LCD products.



- Rich

Oppo Beta Group

Oppo BDP-105D | Oppo HA-1 | Oppo PM-1 | Parasound A51 | Revel Salon, Voice, Studio | Velodyne HGS-15
RichB is online now  
post #8120 of 10439 Old 01-12-2014, 10:56 AM
AVS Special Member
 
tgm1024's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 5,814
Mentioned: 1 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 89 Post(s)
Liked: 549
Quote:
Quote:
Originally Posted by coolscan View Post
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by tgm1024 View Post

Not "derailed", but to say that the coinciding higher resolution didn't complicate the emergence of a newly productized technology isn't fair either. 

How do you get that argument to hang together?
They can't even mass-produce OLED TV size in any significant number, ............period.
That's the real and only problem for OLED.

 

You're going to have to clarify this one.  So OLEDs of any resolution are equivalently easy to make?  Is that your position?


Well Vinnie97, one of the kindest and most helpful and respected members here, got one of these. I wonder how much longer before I get such a message...
You have been banned for the following reason: No reason was specified.
Date the ban will be lifted: Never
tgm1024 is online now  
post #8121 of 10439 Old 01-12-2014, 11:40 AM
AVS Special Member
 
coolscan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 1,786
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 6 Post(s)
Liked: 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by tgm1024 View Post

You're going to have to clarify this one.  So OLEDs of any resolution are equivalently easy to make?  Is that your position?
How did you manage to extract that interpretation out of what I wrote? confused.gif

The whole argument here is (and that's what I originally responded to) the launch of 4K TVs has no impact on the release, marketing or manufacturing problems of OLED.

Why is it that it seems to me that some people here don't get that OLED TVs can-not (for the time being) be manufactured (in any reasonable numbers or prices) and-that-is-the-only- (and very significant) -problem with OLED. confused.gif
coolscan is offline  
post #8122 of 10439 Old 01-12-2014, 11:55 AM
AVS Special Member
 
andy sullivan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: sun city west AZ
Posts: 3,040
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 34 Post(s)
Liked: 131
Quote:
Originally Posted by RichB View Post

Other manufacturers cannot compete using OLED since it cannot be price competitve.
If for some reason, other manufacturers need to respond to Vizio (LCD) it would likely be with their own LCD products.



- Rich
I agree completely. I'm just guessing that Vizio may take a front runner position in whatever we consider the cutting edge of LCD display technology going into 2015. The P series offers a lot on paper but we'll have to see how it stacks up PQ wise with the competition. If the "After P series" product can provide even better dimming technology as well as reducing the off axis viewing problem then OLED better be readily available in stores at an affordable price or it will be left in the "What could have been" dust bin.
andy sullivan is online now  
post #8123 of 10439 Old 01-12-2014, 12:35 PM
AVS Special Member
 
tgm1024's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 5,814
Mentioned: 1 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 89 Post(s)
Liked: 549
Quote:
Originally Posted by coolscan View Post
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by tgm1024 View Post

You're going to have to clarify this one.  So OLEDs of any resolution are equivalently easy to make?  Is that your position?
How did you manage to extract that interpretation out of what I wrote? confused.gif

The whole argument here is (and that's what I originally responded to) the launch of 4K TVs has no impact on the release, marketing or manufacturing problems of OLED.

 

The advent of 4K LCD means that the public is aware of 4K.  It's the new technology.  This meant that the 2K OLED's, being of premium price, were already DOA as a concept.  This means that the nut to crack was in creating 4K OLED's at volume.  We've discussed this at length elsewhere.  David_B said it derailed OLED.  I don't think it derailed it---but I do think it complicated it.

 

You seem to think that assembling/depositing 6 million subpixels is the same as 24 million subpixels of 1/4th the size (along with all the additional circuitry needed to address them).  That is just not the case, particularly for a brand new technology.  They're already struggling with yields and then suddenly they had to deal with a radically tighter set of tolerances.  I'm sorry, but manufacturing just doesn't wave that stuff aside.


Well Vinnie97, one of the kindest and most helpful and respected members here, got one of these. I wonder how much longer before I get such a message...
You have been banned for the following reason: No reason was specified.
Date the ban will be lifted: Never
tgm1024 is online now  
post #8124 of 10439 Old 01-12-2014, 03:03 PM
AVS Addicted Member
 
rogo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 1999
Location: Sequoia, CA
Posts: 30,055
Mentioned: 1 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 20 Post(s)
Liked: 375
Quote:
Originally Posted by irkuck View Post

Yeah, talking now about replacement of LCD is sci-fi/fantasy. Even the Kim Dzong Un of displays, the vice-president of Samsung display H S Kim gives 5+ ys time frame to see what comes of OLED.

Yep.
Quote:
Competitive pricing of Samsung mobile OLED's might be due to hidden subsidies or not accounting for full costs of development. This is OK if there is perspective of OLED spreading out and mobile area is now the benchmark: if there are signs OLED displays showing in 2014 in more smartphones, in some phablets/tablets - even in an ultra high-end segment - that would be positive. Otherwise prospects are dim especially that comparisons show no clear advantage of mobile OLED over best mobile LCD displays.

There are rumors Samsung is having yield issues with the full HD OLED panels for the Galaxy line and is going to go to part LTPS for the next generation to limit the number they need (presumably broken up by model, since Samsung does so many different models.
Quote:
Originally Posted by David_B View Post

4k has derailed OLED there's no doubt about it.

I think this is true from a marketing point of view and the people that are disagreeing with you are missing that.
Quote:
If I where Samsung or LG I'd be trying to convince Apple to make a 30 inch Retina OLED.

Burn-in risk makes OLED a pretty bad computer monitor at this time. On smartphones (which shut off the screen all the time) and TVs sold in tiny volumes, the risk is manageable. It's less clear it is so on PCs.
Quote:
Originally Posted by slacker711 View Post

The capex associated with LG converting an a-si LCD fab to the world's first commercial Gen 8 IGZO OLED fab is ~$660 million. That buys you a total capacity of 1.87 million 55" televisions a year.

That is cheap from a capex perspective and that is with the added burden of being the first to buy some of the equipment. That number should only go down if LG pursues further Gen 8 fabs.

OK, that's good info.
Quote:
So what exactly do you see being cost prohibitive due to the low volumes? I continue to see this being primarily a yield story. Get the yields, and the rest can fall into place...at least when we are talking about the high-end of the market.

I see low yield creating an anti-virtuous/vicious cycle. You improve yields with volume and then improve costs with yields and so on. With low production, you are not likely to improve yields very quickly and therefore not likely to improve costs very quickly.
Quote:
Originally Posted by coolscan View Post

4K hasn't derailed something nobody manage to manufacture to a reasonable price.

Except to the extent that the public's very limited attention span is now being directed to pixels.
Quote:
They are a design, repacking and marketing company, that is wholly dependent on what other companies manage to manufacture for them.
If Apple could solve the OLED manufacturing problems we would have seen Apple OLED monitors already.

Apple is awfully good at putting together pieces in ways others have dismissed/not contemplated to make products everyone thinks are ridiculous but then become hugely successful. None of this applies to OLED, per se, but it does suggest an Apple television is still a remote possibility.
Quote:
Originally Posted by tgm1024 View Post

Not "derailed", but to say that the coinciding higher resolution didn't complicate the emergence of a newly productized technology isn't fair either.  Even 4K LCD's are tougher to make than 2K LCD's.

4K LCDs are lower resolution and use larger pixels than a 3-year-old iPhone. They are, quite honestly, trivial to make.
Quote:
Originally Posted by andy sullivan View Post

I think that if Vizio is successful with the new P Series (big sales) they will not sit on their laurels. What Vizio follows up the P Series with will force the development of OLED from Samsung, LG, or other Chinese Manufactures. The time frame will small and it will be sink or swim for OLED.

I think it's a mistake to link anything here. Vizio's R&D budget is doubtless tiny. If they make a great LCD, everyone else can make a great LCD.
Quote:
Originally Posted by coolscan View Post

How do you get that argument to hang together?
They can't even mass-produce OLED TV size in any significant number, ............period.
That's the real and only problem for OLED.

There's another very real problem: Consumers don't care. You can't sell "it's much better quality" for more than a small price premium. Consumers have spoken loudly on this topic over and over.
Quote:
Originally Posted by RichB View Post

Other manufacturers cannot compete using OLED since it cannot be price competitve.
If for some reason, other manufacturers need to respond to Vizio (LCD) it would likely be with their own LCD products.

Yep.
Quote:
Originally Posted by coolscan View Post

Why is it that it seems to me that some people here don't get that OLED TVs can-not (for the time being) be manufactured (in any reasonable numbers or prices) and-that-is-the-only- (and very significant) -problem with OLED. confused.gif

Again, it's more complex than that. If OLED was at price parity, it would still take time to actually win. Think about that for a second. At any price premium, the path to success is slow because of lack of consumer interest.
Quote:
Originally Posted by tgm1024 View Post

The advent of 4K LCD means that the public is aware of 4K.  It's the new technology.  This meant that the 2K OLED's, being of premium price, were already DOA as a concept. 

100% correct. We discussed this a year ago.
Quote:
You seem to think that assembling/depositing 6 million subpixels is the same as 24 million subpixels of 1/4th the size (along with all the additional circuitry needed to address them).  That is just not the case, particularly for a brand new technology.  They're already struggling with yields and then suddenly they had to deal with a radically tighter set of tolerances.  I'm sorry, but manufacturing just doesn't wave that stuff aside.

Yes, this is true for OLED. It's just not true for LCD, where the volumes of smartphones already dramatically exceed that of TVs and many of those smartphones even have full HD resolution. They pack all that amazing circuitry into much, much smaller form factors. Making a 55-inch 4K LCD is beyond trivial.

There is no difference in HDMI cables. If you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working.
rogo is offline  
post #8125 of 10439 Old 01-12-2014, 03:55 PM
AVS Special Member
 
RichB's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 1999
Location: Massachusetts
Posts: 8,554
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 74 Post(s)
Liked: 209
Actually, 4K prematurely derailed Panasonic plasma, and probably Samsung and LG too (next year).
Panasonic decided that 4K Plasma could not be produced price competitive and within EU power usage requirements.


- Rich

Oppo Beta Group

Oppo BDP-105D | Oppo HA-1 | Oppo PM-1 | Parasound A51 | Revel Salon, Voice, Studio | Velodyne HGS-15
RichB is online now  
post #8126 of 10439 Old 01-12-2014, 04:07 PM
AVS Special Member
 
Esox50's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: IL
Posts: 1,473
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 12
All I know after CES is that:
1.)OLED faces a massive uphill battle, and I have adjusted my expectations to 2017/2018 before OLED will see the light of day in my theater...if ever.

2.)Buying a TV right now is a "scary" proposition. Tremendous change is afoot in the industry, both from a product AND company financial situation standpoint. I think Panasonic will exit the TV business within 2-3 years. Sharp is in trouble. Sony came out big with UHD...but is it smoke and mirrors or one last ditch effort?

3.)Not one UHD TV from CES screams "buy me" right now. Whether its lack of 3D (Vizio), active 3D (WTF is with this? To me one of the huge benefits of potentially going 4K was for passive 3D), ridiculous side speakers (Sony 900 series), lack of 10 bit panels...the list goes on and on.

4.)4K Blu Ray is a no show. Seems we are destined for crappy streaming of 4K content.

So, what am I going to do? Absolutely nothing...I'm going to enjoy my current 2 year old 60" TV and hope maybe 2015 will be different. Good luck to all, including all the companies who can't seem to "get it right" for the videophiles among us.
Esox50 is offline  
post #8127 of 10439 Old 01-12-2014, 04:23 PM
AVS Special Member
 
andy sullivan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: sun city west AZ
Posts: 3,040
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 34 Post(s)
Liked: 131
I agree that if Vizio can make a great LCD then anybody can make a great LCD. But from what I've seen, even though the technology is available to make a close to great LCD, Like the Elite from Sharp and Sony's Full Local Dimming, they can't make it cheap enough to offer an affordable end product. This is where Vizio may be headed. So far they seem to have adopted several new LCD improvements like at least some kind of local dimming and now 4K technology, which of course is now available to any manufacture wanting to buy it. Vizio has shown a penchant for combining any number of components to create a marketable product. I assume that all of the components that Vizio uses are also available to everyone else yet they manage to do it either more efficiently or at a lower acceptable profit margin. I do not own any Vizio products but I remember when they first burst on the market, many, including me, figured they would fall by the wayside quickly in a market controlled by a few Japanese giants and a couple of fast growing Korean companies. Think if Vizio comes out with an Elite quality display in 4K and incorporates a IGZO screen and then offers a 70" for under $3,000. What would that do to the future of OLED
andy sullivan is online now  
post #8128 of 10439 Old 01-12-2014, 05:14 PM
 
vinnie97's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Nunya
Posts: 11,657
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 213 Post(s)
Liked: 1000
Drive a stake through its heart?
vinnie97 is offline  
post #8129 of 10439 Old 01-12-2014, 05:52 PM
Senior Member
 
Mad Norseman's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Land of 10,000 Taxes!
Posts: 472
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 100
Quote:
Originally Posted by RichB View Post

Actually, 4K prematurely derailed Panasonic plasma, and probably Samsung and LG too (next year).
Panasonic decided that 4K Plasma could not be produced price competitive and within EU power usage requirements.
- Rich

Screw the EU's stupid 'power usage requirements' then I say! wink.gif

The Insane Pink Care Bear's Home Theater Set Up:

Marantz AV 8801 Processor, Emotiva XPR-5 Amplifier, Panasonic 65" ST30 Plasma, Yamaha BD-S2900 Blu-ray, Yamaha CDC-697 CD Player, Yamaha TT-500U Turntable, w/Signet TK5e, JBL ES100 Fronts, JBL LC2 Center, JBL ES30 Surrounds & 2 JBL ES250P Subwoofers
Mad Norseman is offline  
post #8130 of 10439 Old 01-12-2014, 06:46 PM
Advanced Member
 
slacker711's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 603
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 33 Post(s)
Liked: 109
Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo View Post

I see low yield creating an anti-virtuous/vicious cycle. You improve yields with volume and then improve costs with yields and so on. With low production, you are not likely to improve yields very quickly and therefore not likely to improve costs very quickly.

You've lost me here. I might disagree with many of your arguments but I understand the logic, but I'm missing something on this one.

You really think it is impossible to develop the methods to get decent yields with a 26,000 substrate a month fab? Why?
slacker711 is offline  
Reply Flat Panels General and OLED Technology

Tags
Led Hdtv , Lcd Hdtv , Plasma Hdtv , Oled Tv , Lg , Samsung

User Tag List

Thread Tools
Show Printable Version Show Printable Version
Email this Page Email this Page


Forum Jump: 

Posting Rules  
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off