OLED TVs: Technology Advancements Thread - Page 347 - AVS Forum
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post #10381 of 10697 Old 07-02-2014, 07:48 AM
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Originally Posted by Wizziwig View Post
Maybe Samsung decided to resume OLED TVs to fill the void after they quit Plasma production in November?
So buy plasmas before inventory runs out or hold out hope that OLED pans out?
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post #10382 of 10697 Old 07-02-2014, 11:44 AM
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Originally Posted by wco81 View Post
So buy plasmas before inventory runs out or hold out hope that OLED pans out?
If you have the $$ there will be 4K OLEDs out this year. And they will be better than any plasma ever made. I doubt you'll get much of a deal on the 2014 OLED displays until sometime in 2015.

-SiGGy
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post #10383 of 10697 Old 07-02-2014, 12:15 PM
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'Much of a deal' is relative. Once the M2 line ramps to full production, LG will need to price at a level to sell 4000 55" OLEDs a day. That price is almost certain to be lower than the lowest prices we have seem to date.

When M2 is fully ramped is the big question mark, but there is no question that pricing will need to be much lower than it is now to drive the demand needed to absorb that level of ongoing production.
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post #10384 of 10697 Old 07-02-2014, 12:46 PM
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Originally Posted by fafrd View Post
'Much of a deal' is relative. Once the M2 line ramps to full production, LG will need to price at a level to sell 4000 55" OLEDs a day. That price is almost certain to be lower than the lowest prices we have seem to date.

When M2 is fully ramped is the big question mark, but there is no question that pricing will need to be much lower than it is now to drive the demand needed to absorb that level of ongoing production.
Well, if I told you that it takes about 10 bucks worth of OLED materials ( they kinda cost 10 bucks at PPG's plant in Ohio and by the time they get to LG they may very well cost 20 bucks (they are just too many middlemen)) for 1 square inch, then how realistic is it a 4k 77" costing under 2 grand?
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post #10385 of 10697 Old 07-02-2014, 12:51 PM
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Well, if I told you that it takes about 10 bucks worth of OLED materials ( they kinda cost 10 bucks at PPG's plant in Ohio and by the time they get to LG they may very well cost 20 bucks (they are just too many middlemen)) for 1 square inch, then how realistic is it a 4k 77" costing under 2 grand?
If you told me that, I would tell you to go get a new calculator.

and nobody expects the 4K 77" model to cost under $2000.
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post #10386 of 10697 Old 07-02-2014, 01:00 PM
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If you told me that, I would tell you to go get a new calculator.

and nobody expects the 4K 77" model to cost under $2000.
Then what's the lowest price point 4k 77" can achieve?


Any guesstimate would be appreciated

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post #10387 of 10697 Old 07-02-2014, 01:25 PM
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Originally Posted by SiGGy View Post
If you have the $$ there will be 4K OLEDs out this year. And they will be better than any plasma ever made. I doubt you'll get much of a deal on the 2014 OLED displays until sometime in 2015.
But how long will they last? Paying a high price is one thing but if that set lasts just a couple of years or has burn-in problems ...
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post #10388 of 10697 Old 07-02-2014, 01:27 PM
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But how long will they last? Paying a high price is one thing but if that set lasts just a couple of years or has burn-in problems ...
30.000 hours, and afaik people here have reported temporal Image Retention and not Burn in.
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post #10389 of 10697 Old 07-02-2014, 02:24 PM
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But how long will they last? Paying a high price is one thing but if that set lasts just a couple of years or has burn-in problems ...
I totally agree with you, man. Forking over a huge chunk of hard-earned cash for something that lasts ,purportedly, 30,000 hours and burns in from letter/pillar-boxed content and also runs the risk of color shifts and sub-pixels dying one by one over time doesn't seem too appealing now, does it....



But ever since I'd rather poke my eye out with a sharpie than buy another LCD TV I reckon I have no choice, but to play the OLED lottery...

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post #10390 of 10697 Old 07-02-2014, 02:30 PM
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Originally Posted by stas3098 View Post
Then what's the lowest price point 4k 77" can achieve?


Any guesstimate would be appreciated
Any guesstimate would have a such a huge error range as to be fairly worthless.

I can say that any price projection under $2000 is not happening anytime soon and I will also say that the pricing gap between the 65" 4K (6000 pounds) and the 77" 4K (20000 pounds) means that LG is charging a gigantic premium for the privilege of owning the largest model on the market. If the MSRP is 6000 pounds on the 65" model, it shouldnt be more than 10,000 pounds for the 77" model. I expect that the price on the 77" model will fall faster than either the 55" or 65"

With respect to materials per square inch, IHS estimates that the S5 has an ASP of $63. That includes the bill of material costs, manufacturing costs, margins, depreciation etc. The material cost is well below $10 on a 11 square inch display. LGD is very inefficient with their material deposition right now, but there is no reason that they wont ultimately be able to match Samsung (though they do need a thicker material layer for WRGB).
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post #10391 of 10697 Old 07-02-2014, 03:07 PM
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Originally Posted by slacker711 View Post
Young claims that they have hit acceptable yields using SMS in that link.

I have never had your definitiveness on this issue. Samsung believed that they could do it and clearly failed in their first attempt. Could they have had a manufacturing breakthrough? We'll know if/when they start spending on a Gen 8 RGB fab.

Slacker, I don't actually doubt that the yields are acceptable.

What I doubt is that the throughput is acceptable. And I doubt strongly it ever will be acceptable.

My definitiveness goes to Operations 101. In order to produce a screen using mask scanning, you need to move a finite number of small masks over a larger substrate (1-4 seems plausible, with 2 being a likely maximum). Whatever the number, however, the process is inherently slow. You can improve the deposition of OLED through the screens, but it's still a mechanical process in two ways (1) the pushing of the OLED materials (2) the movement of the screens. The screens need to be move in perfect registration or else the panel / substrate is ruined.

You can get this kind of precision because, well, in clean-room type manufacturing, nearly any level of precision is possible. You cannot, however, have that level of precision while also having high throughput. The very movement of the masks has to be deliberate to keep the registration perfect. The OLED deposition has to be cautious to avoid errant material.

The decision to go with a full RGB design makes this even worse as you have to deposit each color separately.

Samsung gets away with this on mobile because, honestly (1) there is no mask scanning and (2) they have brute forced the production of mask-based OLED production to the point they are good at it. And they can afford to just toss out bad screens. And the screens don't have to be very high quality. Now, I don't mean they are low quality in terms of image reproduction because obviously the latest ones are just flat-out excellent. I do mean in terms of longevity, however. A smartphone screen needs to work for <10,000 in nearly all cases. If the MTBF is anywhere around there, you will have an acceptable defect rate. A tablet screen might need a slightly higher MTBF and, I suspect, they are being more cautious with tablet screens as a result, which is why you'll still see them sell far fewer OLED tablets than OLED smartphones (market size helps, but be aware of the mix, too.)

If you are talking about making 20-30 million large-format televisions annually down the road, this method won't scale. It's not at all clear it will scale to 2-3 million, but it's very clear it won't scale to the bigger numbers. The promise of OLED is embedded in reasonable build cost at high volumes. If your "Herbie" is a process step that is nearly as bad as early LC sputtering on large-format LCD TVs, it's a dealbreaker. It was for LCD until someone fixed the problem and it will be for any attempts by Samsung to hit volume production here.

Therefore, two possibilities exist:

1) They have no intention of hitting volume production. This is a long-term investment and they are just making sure they are in the game.

2) They have made an unannounced breakthrough that is game changing with respect to how they will produce these. Even if they have not done this, they will ultimately need to.

There is no difference in HDMI cables. If you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working.
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post #10392 of 10697 Old 07-02-2014, 07:03 PM
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First and foremost, Merck are gonna go with LG to make printable OLED not Samsung that's why I can't see how Samsung could've made a breakthrough.
Unfortunately, for you all guys I'm not at liberty to talk about Merck's OLED printing.


According to this report http://www.slideshare.net/MerckGroup...-oled-business on Merck (which by the looks of it have now >60% http://www.slideshare.net/MerckGroup...ntcm1612108818 and in cohorts with all the other companies that make up the rest >40 of LCD materials market and god only knows how much of OLED materials market they've cornered by now, oh wait a minute why would they need to corner anything if any one who makes OLED materials uses their processes and chemicals) the cost per square inch is 10 bucks.


From my vantage Merck seem to have OLED materials market in chokehold with their 1400 patents and licensing a lot of UDC's patents plus a burning desire to get rid of countless middlemen. We all know Merck have sunk billions of dollars into making OLED possible. First, they bought Millipore http://www.biospace.com/company_prof...panyId=1003962 to build facilities able to produce OLED materials (there were also other reasons for buying Millipore as well) . Then they got EMD Chemicals Gibbstown to get brains to make OLED materials last longer. The last was AZ Electronic Materials to make OLED printing possible. All done for OLED's sake.



If Merck say Samsung are not making OLED TVs at the moment then Samsung are not making them, period!!!!!

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post #10393 of 10697 Old 07-02-2014, 07:07 PM
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Originally Posted by slacker711 View Post
Any guesstimate would have a such a huge error range as to be fairly worthless.

I can say that any price projection under $2000 is not happening anytime soon and I will also say that the pricing gap between the 65" 4K (6000 pounds) and the 77" 4K (20000 pounds) means that LG is charging a gigantic premium for the privilege of owning the largest model on the market. If the MSRP is 6000 pounds on the 65" model, it shouldnt be more than 10,000 pounds for the 77" model. I expect that the price on the 77" model will fall faster than either the 55" or 65"

With respect to materials per square inch, IHS estimates that the S5 has an ASP of $63. That includes the bill of material costs, manufacturing costs, margins, depreciation etc. The material cost is well below $10 on a 11 square inch display. LGD is very inefficient with their material deposition right now, but there is no reason that they wont ultimately be able to match Samsung (though they do need a thicker material layer for WRGB).
20,000 pounds . Looks like I'm gonna have to go with 65'' when they go down in price a bit
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post #10394 of 10697 Old 07-02-2014, 07:17 PM
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I've again stepped into the same snakepit by saying: " if Merck say Samsung are not making OLED TVs at the moment then Samsung are not making them, period!".


Merck simply supply a lot of LCD and OLED materials to Samsung and its suppliers.


What I meant was that if Samsung were making OLED TVs Merck would be the first to know and that they'd be very happy to do all they can to help Samsung get going.


Merck and UDC would be happy to license their techniques and processes to any one who wishes to make OLED materials.


Merck would also be very happy to have more buyers for their compounds and formulas for it is beneficial for everybody. What you might call a win-win situation.

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post #10395 of 10697 Old 07-02-2014, 07:20 PM
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Originally Posted by rogo View Post
What I doubt is that the throughput is acceptable. And I doubt strongly it ever will be acceptable.

My definitiveness goes to Operations 101. In order to produce a screen using mask scanning, you need to move a finite number of small masks over a larger substrate (1-4 seems plausible, with 2 being a likely maximum). Whatever the number, however, the process is inherently slow. You can improve the deposition of OLED through the screens, but it's still a mechanical process in two ways (1) the pushing of the OLED materials (2) the movement of the screens. The screens need to be move in perfect registration or else the panel / substrate is ruined.
Interestingly, I think your take on this matches the comments in the OLED-A whitepaper. If throughput to hit a certain yield is even slower than expected, it would further increase the capex gap between IGZO and Samsung's LTPS approach. I agree that this is not going to be an approach that allows prices to support 20 million unit sales, whether it may be good enough to hit a million units is probably debatable.

The pilot fab is a sunk cost so we'll see how aggressive Samsung gets with pricing. Fundamentally, I think that LGD is forcing the industry to scramble for an OLED strategy. I dont think that there is going to be a market for a LCD sequel to the 950b at its current price.
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post #10396 of 10697 Old 07-03-2014, 12:31 AM
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Interestingly, I think your take on this matches the comments in the OLED-A whitepaper.
I don't know what that is, but I hope I'm in good company.
Quote:

If throughput to hit a certain yield is even slower than expected, it would further increase the capex gap between IGZO and Samsung's LTPS approach. I agree that this is not going to be an approach that allows prices to support 20 million unit sales, whether it may be good enough to hit a million units is probably debatable.


Well, there are at least two key differences at 1 million (vs. 20 million)

1) A terrible throughput process can still probably net 1 million panels over a year. There is slow-but-good-enough and then there is simply-too-slow-to-allow-that. For 1 million, it's possible this technique will fit the former.

2) If the true cost of a process is money losing at 1 million (or not profitable), you can eat the losses. Maybe you lose $50-500 per display, but that's sustainable to push volume/grow the business/etc. There is justification for this kind of thing and it can be affordable. Over 20 million, however, even a $50 loss per unit would likely prove untenable. It's not dramatically more than 1 million x $500, but it's a bigger lose on 20x the scale. And that would likely be unacceptable in accounting.
Quote:

The pilot fab is a sunk cost so we'll see how aggressive Samsung gets with pricing. Fundamentally, I think that LGD is forcing the industry to scramble for an OLED strategy. I dont think that there is going to be a market for a LCD sequel to the 950b at its current price.


I'm not sure there's a market for the 950b at its current price with/without OLED.

(Jeez, this quoting thing is ridiculous. Note that my bolds are intended to be further quoted sections. Fix this please AVS.)

There is no difference in HDMI cables. If you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working.
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post #10397 of 10697 Old 07-03-2014, 05:09 AM
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Originally Posted by rogo View Post
(Jeez, this quoting thing is ridiculous. Note that my bolds are intended to be further quoted sections. Fix this please AVS.)
Just use the QUOTE tag with an =name. The one with the quote=who? in this case.
Quote:
Originally Posted by who?
I didn't really post this
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post #10398 of 10697 Old 07-03-2014, 06:03 AM
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Just use the QUOTE tag with an =name. The one with the quote=who? in this case.
Still looks completely horrendous.

What's ridiculous is how every vbulletin site I've been on for over a decade has quoting down cold, yet somehow in 2014 even when you employ the "=" hack it is difficult to see clearly and has no drawn bounding box.

WARNING: You have now entered a no @#$%tard zone. Please gather your anti-vaccine propaganda nonsense and slowly back out the way you came in.
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post #10399 of 10697 Old 07-03-2014, 07:20 AM
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Originally Posted by tgm1024 View Post
Still looks completely horrendous.

What's ridiculous is how every vbulletin site I've been on for over a decade has quoting down cold, yet somehow in 2014 even when you employ the "=" hack it is difficult to see clearly and has no drawn bounding box.
I see a white drawn bounding box now.
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post #10400 of 10697 Old 07-03-2014, 07:28 AM
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I see a white drawn bounding box now.
That's a background; a bounding-box is a line drawn around the whole thing. And a white box over a pale blue background, .....and it just doesn't look clear to me where things end and where things start to me.

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post #10401 of 10697 Old 07-03-2014, 12:09 PM
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By the way here's more information on LG OLED printing. http://news.oled-display.net/lg-disp...rint-oled-tvs/


http://news.oled-display.net/merck-i...g-oled-layers/


Merck do not really believe there are any big money to be made for them in the OLED TVs business. They are hell-bent now on making hydrogen-turn free OLED materials that can last for hundreds of years on end. They first planed to use OLED printing to make lighting devices, but since they have had almost no progress in making blue OLEDs last significantly longer I guess they've just lost the hope of OLED ever living for millions of hours and are trying to get into the OLED display business while they can.
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post #10402 of 10697 Old 07-03-2014, 01:33 PM
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Well Vinnie97, one of the kindest and most helpful and respected members here, got one of these. I wonder how much longer before I get such a message...
You have been banned for the following reason:
No reason was specified.
Date the ban will be lifted: Never



I've gotta be kiddin' ,right!?


If there ever was any one who deserved a ban here it was me...
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post #10403 of 10697 Old 07-04-2014, 08:25 AM
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I totally agree with you, man. Forking over a huge chunk of hard-earned cash for something that lasts ,purportedly, 30,000 hours and burns in from letter/pillar-boxed content and also runs the risk of color shifts and sub-pixels dying one by one over time doesn't seem too appealing now, does it....



But ever since I'd rather poke my eye out with a sharpie than buy another LCD TV I reckon I have no choice, but to play the OLED lottery...
It's way premature to say stuff like this... Lots of unfounded FUD in your post. All tv's drift... Manufacturers usually account for some of it in the drive system. Plasmas change a lot over time.

OLED is new, you know this. LG's design is different than Samsung's. Early adopters always have some issues. What they are isn't clear yet... And will probably be different depending on the manufacturer.

-SiGGy

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post #10404 of 10697 Old 07-04-2014, 09:12 AM
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Some perspective, let's say you watch 5 hours a day every day for 16.43 years - that's 30,000 hours!
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post #10405 of 10697 Old 07-04-2014, 09:19 AM
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But what does that 30,000 hours represent? The point at which the pixels all die or when they start to noticeably fade?

Big difference between the two. If the brightness and saturation begins to decline at say 15,000 or even 10,000 hours?
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post #10406 of 10697 Old 07-07-2014, 08:13 AM
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Hmm
http://english.etnews.com/device/2964163_1304.html
Quote:
Samsung Display will release a new UHD resolution OLED TV panel within the year. ...making plans to reenter the market with products ranging from a 55” UHD version.

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post #10407 of 10697 Old 07-07-2014, 10:10 AM
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That article reads like it was written by LG and Samsung.
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post #10408 of 10697 Old 07-07-2014, 11:59 AM
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[QUOTE=Audio Karma;25362906]Someone has to set you all straight about > your way of thinking here.. that all HDMI cables are the same...THEY ARE NOT ALL THE SAME!! If I had another Mapleshade HDMI PLUS cable, I would pass it around here so you all could find out for yourself that all HDMI cables are not the same!!

Can't you see I'm trying to help you all out here! Don't believe everything you hear on these forums..

And NO, I'm not connected in any way with these products.

re tubtwisteer

Just a bit of friendly advise :

If someone gave me a maple s**t cable I would sell it to some fool for some grit and buy something useful instead !

Disinformation doesn't fly as well over here at AVS as some other forums just saying (fellow AK member here the difference being they are just a little more tolerant of disinfonation and nonsense without scientific proof )
Hence the name AV SCIENCE HERE ! I doubt too many here are impressed by the fact you over spend for cables .
OTOH there is much to learn here besides the usual marketing disinformation your choice .


Of course one can always waste money on maple s**t (or other)phatt cables if they choose to while I buy my ~ $5.00 -$10.00 Monoprice cables that work just the same and I will keep the change and continue to bask in my already reasonably comfortable retirement that I was able to afford at 55 and can still afford some decent cubans now and then because I didn't spend foolishly *( at least on cables anyway ☺) fast pretty women are a lot more fun than overpriced cables that don't do much beyond looking overpriced and wasting phools money anyway kinda like some women I've known still lot's more fun than cables though! ☺☺

The DOW (DJA) busted 17,000 again today (lots of short covering though ) Imagine that ? Life is good running with the bulls ! (for now) not a good time to be shorting ! OTOH there might be some decent downside opportunity !

Hires Music formats ..............."Why does it sound like a CD ?" ............. "can we make it louder "?
"The wireless music box has no commercial value. Who would pay for a message sent to nobody in particular?"
- David Sarnoff's associates at RCA the 1920's -

Last edited by tubetwister; 07-07-2014 at 05:54 PM.
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post #10409 of 10697 Old 07-07-2014, 12:43 PM
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Anyway enough my of participating in a thread hi jacking here ( I couldn't resist that one ☺ ) and back to the subject at hand ...... the reason I spun up this thread in the first place was to post this article below maybe it was already posted here but I looked back ,did not see it so if I missed it in this thread please accept my apologies .

EDIT : looks like Tobbeo beat me to it ..................I must be losing it !
we can probably all just reply to his post to keep it fair and simple

TBH his link actually is the source for the Digital Flat Panel article listed below anyway


I can't remember what I had for lunch (or was it breakfast) and I don't want to have the same thing for dinner !


SAMSUNG TO RELEASE 4K OLED TV THIS YEAR - RUMOR


Amid rumors of Samsung putting its OLED TV plans on hold, Samsung is said to release a 4K OLED TV before year’s end, according to ETNews.

IS SAMSUNG IN OR OUT?

Rumors in the industry suggest that Samsung has stopped OLED TV production, but according to ETNews Samsung is actually planning to launch a 4K OLED TV later this year.

read more :
http://www.flatpanelshd.com/news.php...207&newsletter



Seems on the surface at least to accomplish 2 things (maybe more ) at least this gives Samsung a halo product for the well heeled faithful (if they bring it to market ) and at the same time
saves them some face which is understandably in their cultural DNA it would seem this panel is apparently within their means and abilities to produce .

I haven't figured out how to print my own money quite yet (having a devilish time with getting the new 100 bills right and all you know ) So at this point I can't quite see one in my immediate future ☺☺

Now if they could just make it both flat and cheap that would be something

The DOW (DJA) busted 17,000 again today looks like the bulls figured out how to get Wall st. to print money again !

Hires Music formats ..............."Why does it sound like a CD ?" ............. "can we make it louder "?
"The wireless music box has no commercial value. Who would pay for a message sent to nobody in particular?"
- David Sarnoff's associates at RCA the 1920's -

Last edited by tubetwister; 07-07-2014 at 02:30 PM.
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post #10410 of 10697 Old 07-07-2014, 05:10 PM
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Originally Posted by ynotgoal View Post
The date is tentatively July 19-20 unless they can wait for another model they are hoping to include.
The date for the Value Electronics shootout has been pushed back to August 16-17. It will include "at least one OLED model".

http://www.bigpicturebigsound.com/20...d-UHDTVs.shtml
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Reply Flat Panels General and OLED Technology

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