OLED TVs: Technology Advancements Thread - Page 79 - AVS Forum
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post #2341 of 10452 Old 07-28-2011, 06:42 AM
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The point was yes, OLED tech can crumble for reasons other than visuals. Personally in displays I do think SED is the best example. It was wowing people at demos, and had announced dates, it did have lawsuit setback but that was short lived and decided in Canons favor. In the end the tech was just too expensive.

OLED seems to have similarly wowed in Demos has some announced dates an will likely be extremely expensive (and have durability issues).

IMO OLED won't fail because there are multiple players to keep it going. If someone drops the ball, someone else will pick it up. OLED also holds the promise of being very inexpensive (someday), that will spur on development.

I am very dubious of LGs 2012 55" claim. What will that cost $10K? How long before it shows burn in?

I am thinking OLED is inevitable, but it might be 2017 before it hits mainstream TV pricing/availability.

Edit: AUO VP says 2014 the earliest:
http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20110728PD207.html
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post #2342 of 10452 Old 07-28-2011, 04:11 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by htwaits View Post

The Sony SXRD is not a good example for your point. SXRD had a lot of customers, including a bunch for it's $10K super version. It's failure initially was a failure of the SXRD technology, then the market moved on to big flat panels. There are still a lot of RPTV sets out there, but Sony has been exchanging most of their SXRD displays for flat panels. I've seen reports of those exchanges going on even this year. They're not doing that because the market moved in another direction.

sony' sxrd sets fell out of the marketplace because they failed after 2-3 years of use. the pq was better than any lcd/led i've seen, but when your display
starts presenting everything with a green or magenta tint or blob, consumers
obviously found it to be unacceptable

i know the ex700 i got for my defective sxrd is not in the same league in terms
of pq and color accuracy.

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post #2343 of 10452 Old 07-28-2011, 05:08 PM
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JVC got their LCoS RPTV working well. Mine is still going strong, lo these 6 years or so. They beat out Sony, in this technology. I'd love to buy a 70" LCoS RPTV. But they just aren't there anymore. You're right, the masses have moved to "hang it on the wall."

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post #2344 of 10452 Old 07-28-2011, 05:25 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mr. wally View Post

sony' sxrd sets fell out of the marketplace because they failed after 2-3 years of use. the pq was better than any lcd/led i've seen, but when your display
starts presenting everything with a green or magenta tint or blob, consumers
obviously found it to be unacceptable

i know the ex700 i got for my defective sxrd is not in the same league in terms
of pq and color accuracy.

Well, no one here seems to remember that the SXRD1 was at the time, the first tv able to display 1080p. Never mind that we still didn't have anything 1080p commercially available.

I don't know about yours, but my 60EX700 show a vastly superior pq over my XBR1.
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post #2345 of 10452 Old 07-31-2011, 11:26 AM
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Would that be the 34" CRT XBR1 from the late '90's?
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post #2346 of 10452 Old 07-31-2011, 12:46 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by guidryp View Post

The point was yes, OLED tech can crumble for reasons other than visuals. Personally in displays I do think SED is the best example. It was wowing people at demos, and had announced dates, it did have lawsuit setback but that was short lived and decided in Canons favor. In the end the tech was just too expensive.

OLED seems to have similarly wowed in Demos has some announced dates an will likely be extremely expensive (and have durability issues).

I am struggling to remember the last time (the first time?) where a large OLED was shown off and the objective picture quality was wow-factor material. I do recall everyone camped around the Sony 11" display. But then I recall proving that unless you jammed your face up against it, it wasn't really much more impressive than the Sony laptop displays across the Sony pavilion area.

I mean, it was better and it was remarkable for its thinness, but it was 11 inches. The Samsung Galaxy has a great 4" screen, too. But we hardly sit around going, "Wow, I can't wait to have that cell phone in my home theater."

The SED demo -- and it was basically fiction in that they were never close to building SED TVs, it was nothing more than a prototype -- was at least a 50-something display (I forget the precise size). People were in awe of a mainstream size display which was that good. It's like the way we felt when we first walked into the Kuro display where there was pitch darkness next to what was obviously a TV. Then it came on. Then you realized that the black floor had been dropped to zero on the TV you hadn't even realized was there before.

That's a "WOW!" demo.

If anyone visited LG at CES -- the only one showing an OLED of any meaningful size -- and came away with a reaction of "Wow!" I missed that. I saw what that had and it looked alright. It didn't look amazing. It didn't look like some kind of revolutionary TV in the making.

I'm not suggesting OLED TVs can't or won't be revolutionary; but so far I'm not sure they are going to be "all that". If you compare on cell phones the Galaxy's display to iPhone 4, for example, they are awfully close in "goodness". Neither is world's better than the other.

There are so many problems with OLED right now as "the next big thing" that I'm not of the opinion any price premium is clearly warranted. But certainly a huge price premium is not warranted at all. The chicken/egg problem is going to come home to roost here. "They are too expensive until they make more. But they can't make more until they sell more. But they can't sell more because they are too expensive."

No offense, but it's hard to believe LG of the astronomically priced 72" LCD is going to be the one to change this equation by pricing their OLED aggressively to stimulate demand and work their way down the learning curve* to lower costs.

I'm not much of the opinion that AUO is that company either.

* check Wikipedia or Google for more

There is no difference in HDMI cables. If you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working.
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post #2347 of 10452 Old 07-31-2011, 05:58 PM
 
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Just came here to drop this off Article from 2008

http://gear.ign.com/articles/895/895002p1.html

" Today, the Associated Press reports that Japanese outlet Nikkei Daily reported that Panasonic (Matsushita) is leading the OLED pack and may beat competitors to market with large-screen OLED displays. Thanks to the rapid construction of a $2.8-billion manufacturing plant, Panasonic expects to have 40-inch OLED panels coming off the production line in 2010, with full commercialization by 2011. Such a plan would put Panasonic in the lead against Sony and Sharp, companies that so far have cited 2012 or later for the launch of similarly sized OLED displays. "

What a joke. Were in the same position right now 4 years later.
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post #2348 of 10452 Old 08-01-2011, 01:49 AM
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Similar to my opinion on LG, I wouldn't hold my breath for Sony either. They don't have the funds to develop OLED for greater purposes.

" Aug. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Howard Stringer, who has overseen a 50 percent decline in Sony Corp.'s value, may cost shareholders a 70 percent gain by clinging to its television business.
Japan's largest exporter of electronics slashed its profit forecast after saying last week its TV division will lose money for an eighth straight year. Once worth more than $100 billion,
Sony has lost half its market capitalization since Stringer became its first non-Japanese chief executive officer in 2005. The Tokyo-based company is now valued at $25 billion, less than
a quarter the size of South Korea's Samsung Electronics Co.
While analysts say Sony may climb 36 percent as sales of its PlayStation game consoles and Cyber-shot digital cameras bolster profit this year, stripping out losses at the TV
business from the rest of the company would boost its equity to $43 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. By selling the TV division, Sony would exit a business that is forecast to lose almost a billion dollars this year as consumers unwilling to pay for its Bravia flat-screen TVs turn to cheaper brands."
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post #2349 of 10452 Old 08-01-2011, 07:12 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo View Post

I am struggling to remember the last time (the first time?) where a large OLED was shown off and the objective picture quality was wow-factor material.

Perhaps you have just become extremely jaded. I have said it before, if you aren't wowed by OLED, you simply can't be wowed by display technology anymore. It essentially has ideal picture characteristics, this is nothing left to improve after OLED. There are no more wows coming from flat panels.

The biggest problem with wowing people with showmanship is you only get one crack at that and OLEDs have been appearing for years as prototypes so they have no surprises left for us.

Sony was showing a 27" OLED at CES in 2007 that Wowed people. Some quotes from a few members here who actually saw it at CES 2007:
http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=783761



Quote:


I saw it this afternoon, and was floored.

Imagine the best LCD panel you've ever seen. And then picture it with the blackest blacks, the whitest whites, and the highest resolution you've ever seen. That sums up this display.

The size of the display is just icing on the cake.

This may sound like hyperbole, but after seeing this display, every single plasma and LCD at the show looked like yesterday's news. I thought the picture below was particularly impressive, and I can attest that it looked far more realistic in person.


Quote:


I have to chime in here. I just got back from CES, having seen these displays. It is almost like Alien technology. These panels were simply unreal. I have never in my life seen a cleaner more real image. It was dizzying. These were in the true sense of the word: a window on the source. Not a single person with a bias to any technology, could stand in front of the display and not be floored in person. There was not a criticism to be invented when scrutinizing the picture. 1080P native 1,000,000:1 contrast. Seriously guys; this thing is beyond a dream. oh, and as thin as 2 sticks of chewing gum to boot. Holy cow!

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post #2350 of 10452 Old 08-01-2011, 12:41 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by guidryp View Post

Perhaps you have just become extremely jaded. I have said it before, if you aren't wowed by OLED, you simply can't be wowed by display technology anymore. It essentially has ideal picture characteristics, this is nothing left to improve after OLED. There are no more wows coming from flat panels.

The biggest problem with wowing people with showmanship is you only get one crack at that and OLEDs have been appearing for years as prototypes so they have no surprises left for us.

Sony was showing a 27" OLED at CES in 2007 that Wowed people. Some quotes from a few members here who actually saw it at CES 2007:
http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=783761

Guidry, you kind of make my point. I don't think I'm jaded, just perhaps forgetful. CES 2007 was four and a half years ago. It's very very possible that was the last truly wow OLED moment. I do recall that display, it was quite impressive in a way that LG's 2011 CES display wasn't. Is that because LCD has gotten so much better (and plasma too)? Or is it because LG's prototype wasn't nearly as amazing? Hard to say. But the fact is LG had something to show at CES 2011 and people didn't come back oohing and ahhing.

I'm not the only person, so I doubt it's me being "jaded".

There is no difference in HDMI cables. If you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working.
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post #2351 of 10452 Old 08-01-2011, 02:55 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by guidryp View Post

The point was yes, OLED tech can crumble for reasons other than visuals. Personally in displays I do think SED is the best example. It was wowing people at demos, and had announced dates, it did have lawsuit setback but that was short lived and decided in Canons favor. In the end the tech was just too expensive.

OLED seems to have similarly wowed in Demos has some announced dates an will likely be extremely expensive (and have durability issues).

IMO OLED won't fail because there are multiple players to keep it going. If someone drops the ball, someone else will pick it up. OLED also holds the promise of being very inexpensive (someday), that will spur on development.

I am very dubious of LGs 2012 55" claim. What will that cost $10K? How long before it shows burn in?

I am thinking OLED is inevitable, but it might be 2017 before it hits mainstream TV pricing/availability.

Edit: AUO VP says 2014 the earliest:
http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20110728PD207.html

LG's 55" HDTV will use white-color OLED and color filters. So not really an OLED display as most think of them.
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post #2352 of 10452 Old 08-01-2011, 02:58 PM
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Originally Posted by guidryp View Post

Edit: AUO VP says 2014 the earliest:
http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20110728PD207.html

AUO is referring to the timeframe that OLED is similarly-priced to LCD, I believe. Until then they'll be expensive, which is no different than every other new tech that's ever been introduced; they are always more expensive than existing technologies, if for no other reason than the expenditures of capital required to ramp them into production. Case in point: All the LCD plants have long since been paid for, but Samsung has sunk US $7 Billion into new OLED factories just in the last 18 months and will need to recoup that investment and depreciate the cost to manufacture.

Early adopters don't care whether they're expensive or not. To be able to purchase a .02 ms pixel response, 600Hz refresh rate, 1,000,000:1 contrast ratio OLED HDTV that's less than 3 mm thick is enough.
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post #2353 of 10452 Old 08-01-2011, 03:01 PM
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Originally Posted by rogo View Post

I am struggling to remember the last time (the first time?) where a large OLED was shown off and the objective picture quality was wow-factor material. I do recall everyone camped around the Sony 11" display. But then I recall proving that unless you jammed your face up against it, it wasn't really much more impressive than the Sony laptop displays across the Sony pavilion area.

I mean, it was better and it was remarkable for its thinness, but it was 11 inches. The Samsung Galaxy has a great 4" screen, too. But we hardly sit around going, "Wow, I can't wait to have that cell phone in my home theater."

The SED demo -- and it was basically fiction in that they were never close to building SED TVs, it was nothing more than a prototype -- was at least a 50-something display (I forget the precise size). People were in awe of a mainstream size display which was that good. It's like the way we felt when we first walked into the Kuro display where there was pitch darkness next to what was obviously a TV. Then it came on. Then you realized that the black floor had been dropped to zero on the TV you hadn't even realized was there before.

That's a "WOW!" demo.

You don't consider this to be a ""WOW!"demo? (watch the video halfway down)

http://www.engadget.com/2010/09/03/l...ld-lcd-hearts/
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post #2354 of 10452 Old 08-01-2011, 03:04 PM
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Originally Posted by rogo View Post

There are so many problems with OLED right now as "the next big thing" that I'm not of the opinion any price premium is clearly warranted. But certainly a huge price premium is not warranted at all. The chicken/egg problem is going to come home to roost here. "They are too expensive until they make more. But they can't make more until they sell more. But they can't sell more because they are too expensive."

I don't see this and wonder if you are aware of the fact that OLEDs are, and have been, in massive need of supply; Samsung is selling them as fast as they can make them and there's more demand than they can meet, even WITH their new gen 5.5 online now and ramping quickly to TEN-FOLD production (previously 3 million smartphone OLEDs per month, ramping to 30 million per month).

It doesn't seem there's a "chicken and egg problem" here...
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post #2355 of 10452 Old 08-01-2011, 03:05 PM
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Originally Posted by guidryp View Post

Perhaps you have just become extremely jaded. I have said it before, if you aren't wowed by OLED, you simply can't be wowed by display technology anymore. It essentially has ideal picture characteristics, this is nothing left to improve after OLED. There are no more wows coming from flat panels.

Exactly so. When you have supreme speed, perfect contrast ratio, super slimness, and flexible or transparent what else is there? OLED is the best display tech ever.
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post #2356 of 10452 Old 08-01-2011, 03:09 PM
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Originally Posted by guidryp View Post

Yes one thing they overpromised on OLED was low power usage.

OLED acutally uses more power with bright backgrounds mostly lit screen. It is only with dark, mostly unlit screens that it uses less power.

That's only because Samsung is using only Universal Display's red PHOLED (phosphorescent OLED) material so far; once they add in green, likely later this year (and eventually blue), OLEDs will be far and away more efficient than LCDs.
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post #2357 of 10452 Old 08-01-2011, 03:11 PM
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Originally Posted by specuvestor View Post

IMHO this is certainly what most people WANT from a TV. Samsung and LCD proved it. Bright and "dynamic" colors catches the consumers' eyes.

That's not what videophiles want though.

Are you assuming you can't tweak your OLED HDTV? Why would you assume that?
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post #2358 of 10452 Old 08-01-2011, 03:13 PM
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Hi Slacker OLED power consumption PATTERN will be similar to Plasma while LED backlighting is quite constant. But again with local dimming gaining acceptance, LED may not be that constant after all IIRC LED already can do 100-150 cd/A

Point is that the proof of the pudding ie Samsung S1 & S2 shows OLED is not as power efficient as we hope it will be.

Samsung uses red PHOLED and fluorescent green and blue. The green and blue are what is consuming most of the power; the red PHOLED is the efficient color. Once Samsung starts using green PHOLED, which is imminent, expect to see power consumption decline accordingly.
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post #2359 of 10452 Old 08-01-2011, 04:08 PM
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Originally Posted by pdoherty972 View Post

You don't consider this to be a ""WOW!"demo? (watch the video halfway down)

http://www.engadget.com/2010/09/03/l...ld-lcd-hearts/

I saw it live, not on some YouTube video. I sat around the LG booth for about an hour. I was underwhelmed. So was just about everyone else who came by. Most comments were on the order of "it looks pretty nice". People were impressed by the thinness (not an important attribute of picture quality).

It was a 31" TV showing animation. Honestly, from straight on, it looked like a really, really nice LCD. From the sides, the viewing angles were great.

I'm completely confounded by your comments in the other posts. Are you saying their "OLED TV" is really a 55" LCD TV with an OLED backlight? Or are you saying it has 6 million white OLED sub-pixels that are color filtered?

The latter seems bizarre. The former seems like something semi-believable, although I'd then note it's basically a full-array, locally dimmed LED-backlit LCD with potentially an awfully high number of "zones".

There is no difference in HDMI cables. If you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working.
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post #2360 of 10452 Old 08-01-2011, 06:36 PM
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Originally Posted by rogo View Post

I'll believe it when I can buy it. No offense to some South Korean mutual fund manager, but the track record of those kind of predictions is terrible.

To date, there has been absolutely no commercially available OLED TV other than an 11" Sony that cost $2500. This... speaks.. volumes...

It might speak volumes if there weren't already millions of OLED displays on smartphones, cameras and various other devices. As well as lighting coming on strong. Anyone trying to call OLED vapor is kidding themselves.
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post #2361 of 10452 Old 08-01-2011, 06:47 PM
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Originally Posted by rogo View Post

It's tangential, but TSMC just taped out samples of Apple's next gen SOC for iPads/iPhones. This suggests that Apple is deadly serious about dropping Samsung as a supplier for everything. Whether it can pull that off or not remains to be seen, but it does mean that iPad will almost certainly not be going OLED until someone not named Samsung can produce enough OLED displays. That's a 2014 at the earliest kind of situation.

Seems it's more complex than that; apple doesn't want to be stuck using LCD for the next three years. They're already feeling that pain NOW in 2011. They need OLED to remain competitive.
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post #2362 of 10452 Old 08-01-2011, 06:50 PM
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Originally Posted by mr. wally View Post

i bet not going to happen. my most optomistic prediction is that we're still 2-3 years out from oled tablet screens. and why would sammy let apple have it first if they are the only manufacturer?

Article I saw this week suggests Samsung will have an OLED tablet (7") out before the end of this year.
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post #2363 of 10452 Old 08-01-2011, 06:56 PM
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Originally Posted by mr. wally View Post

i bet not going to happen. my most optomistic prediction is that we're still 2-3 years out from oled tablet screens. and why would sammy let apple have it first if they are the only manufacturer?

I think you're way too pessimistic. This image below is from the Goldman Sachs report on Universal Display (who provides the IP and materials for Samsung's OLED production). Just look at the difference in estimates of OLED production from Q4 2009 to Q4 2011.

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post #2364 of 10452 Old 08-01-2011, 07:03 PM
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I don't. Unless they plan on not really selling tablets. You can't sort of have enough screens for your tablet but sort of not.

There ought to be about 200 mobile phone screens per 5.5g substrate. At ~100k substrates per month, you are looking at 2MM mobile phone screens per month, or 25MM annually. Samsung might be able to absorb that product on its own for Galaxy II S/Galaxy III S. And even if not, they will have no problem finding customers at HTC and ZTE, looking to demonstrate high-end models.

Where are you getting these numbers? Samsung was producing 3 million smartphone-size screens per month BEFORE the new gen 5.5 came online a few months ago. The result of that ramping is going to be a ten-fold increase to 30 million per month. They're likely around 8 million per month already.
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post #2365 of 10452 Old 08-01-2011, 07:06 PM
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Is that the same Goldman Sachs that was predicting $200 barrel of oil for this summer a couple of yrs ago???
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post #2366 of 10452 Old 08-01-2011, 07:20 PM
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Originally Posted by specuvestor View Post

They've been single sourcing from LGD and now moving to CMI and Sharp. Similarly they are trying to nurture CMI for OLED because for obvious reasons Sammy will fulfill their internal OLED demand first.

I actually think it is possible that the next iPad may be 2 screens technology, maybe retina black and OLED white iPad or iPhones.

But again depends on next 12 months how the market accept premium priced OLED devices.

How much of a price premium do you imagine is needed? The below image is from the Gabelli investment report on Universal Display from around March this year, and shows OLED to be very price competitive.

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post #2367 of 10452 Old 08-01-2011, 07:32 PM
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Originally Posted by rogo View Post

I saw it live, not on some YouTube video. I sat around the LG booth for about an hour. I was underwhelmed. So was just about everyone else who came by. Most comments were on the order of "it looks pretty nice". People were impressed by the thinness (not an important attribute of picture quality).

It was a 31" TV showing animation. Honestly, from straight on, it looked like a really, really nice LCD. From the sides, the viewing angles were great.

I'm completely confounded by your comments in the other posts. Are you saying their "OLED TV" is really a 55" LCD TV with an OLED backlight? Or are you saying it has 6 million white OLED sub-pixels that are color filtered?

The latter seems bizarre. The former seems like something semi-believable, although I'd then note it's basically a full-array, locally dimmed LED-backlit LCD with potentially an awfully high number of "zones".

http://www.oled-info.com/lgs-8-gen-l...-true-oled-tvs

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Update: It's not clear whether LGD's architecture will use a white OLED as a backlighting unit for an LCD display like the article suggests, or whether they plan to use Kodak's method of color-filtering white subpixels (LG now owns those Kodak OLED technologies).

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post #2368 of 10452 Old 08-01-2011, 07:35 PM
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Is that the same Goldman Sachs that was predicting $200 barrel of oil for this summer a couple of yrs ago???

If you don't like their opinion check any of the others including Gabelli, Oppenheimer, Canaccord, Cowen...

There's a reason Universal Display's stock is now 64% owned by institutional investors...

You might also note that the chart doesn't come from Goldman; it comes from DisplaySearch.
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post #2369 of 10452 Old 08-01-2011, 07:39 PM
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Originally Posted by pdoherty972 View Post

If you don't like their opinion check any of the others including Gabelli, Oppenheimer, Canaccord, Cowen...

There's a reason Universal Display's stock is now 64% owned by institutional investors...

Yep, their specialty, increasing the price of stock...no matter if it's a worthy product or not.
As long as they make $$$ who cares about the rest...
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post #2370 of 10452 Old 08-01-2011, 07:47 PM
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LG's 55" HDTV will use white-color OLED and color filters. So not really an OLED display as most think of them.

Those guys at OLED-Info have just revealed themselves to be idiots if they think LG is releasing and OLED backlit LCD.

WOLED with filters is true OLED. It is nothing more than a minor implementation detail that will not effect behavior. The difference is irrelevant except in terms of a small efficiency loss.

If they can't get the chemistry perfect for a specific primary a color filter on top will be common. This is especially likely to get around problems with premature blue aging. You may see OLEDs that use Red/Green unfiltered and Blue that is white or pale blue with a Darker Blue filter. Using Filters on all three might solve differential aging from a standard video signal (which is fairly average color wise). It wont' solve burn from patterns on screen, but at least the screen will be less like to change tint as it ages faster on one color. So filtered white OLED might even be the better solution.

Putting on color filters won't be anything like the multiple layers for LCDs, it is trivial in comparison and will not affect contrast/black levels/viewing angle/response time or any of the other goodness that is OLED.
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