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post #2431 of 10549 Old 08-18-2011, 12:50 AM
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More "daily news rehash" for anyone keen on analysis:

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Originally Posted by specuvestor View Post

The RUMORED schedule shipment is a bit puzzling this year with ipad3 and iPhone 4S / 5 both coming end of year. I would think iPhone 4S launch later this year with 4G LTE launch next year make most sense and ipad3 make a normal refresh cycle next year as well, considering supply chain constraints.

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showt...4#post20491914

"Yesterday the Apple supply chain was hit hard. J.P.Morgan checks suggest iPad 2 Pro (like i-Phone 4GS so an interim product between i-Pad2 and i-Pad3) is very likely to get delayed to 2012 (vs. original expectation of 4Q11 launch).
Apparently, iPad 2 Pro is delayed by at least one stage (3 weeks) and is still not resolved yet. Issue is apparently on the panel side from LGD and Samsung. Apparently, there is light leakage - other vendors would use metal frame but Apple does not, and then - as my analysts tell me - when it comes to retina display, the light is stronger, and there are 2 lines of light rays at the side. 4Q11 iPad orders was revised down by 5-6 mn as a result - and now pointing to be a potential down quarter for 4Q.

Previous expectations (JPM)
iPad 2 Pro - Sep/ Oct launch ,
iPhone 4S - Sep launch ,

Current expectations (JPM)
iPad 2 Pro - likely 1Q11
iPhone 4S - same Sep launch ( no change)"

" Aug. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Poor LCD display and touch panel yields, as well as performance deficiencies in microprocessor chips may have caused delay, Economic Daily News reports, citing unidentified Apple suppliers in Taiwan.
• Earlier this week, Digitimes reports Apple unexpectedly scrapped plans to launch iPad 3 in 2H, due to production bottlenecks for display-related parts
• Apple had aimed to introduce next-generation iPad for peak Christmas demand season: EDN
• Component orders for iPad 3 seem lower now vs what mkt had anticipated few mos. ago, Yuanta analyst wrote in Aug. 16 note to investors
• Display chip makers confirmed chip shipments for iPad 3 have been postponed to Oct. at earliest from Aug.; prev. shipment target was 2m-3m chips per mo. in 3Q: Yuanta "
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post #2432 of 10549 Old 08-18-2011, 07:21 AM
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Originally Posted by DAB View Post

well for a 25'' @ $6K-- it is going to be interesting. Commercial graphic artist might purchase one but not many homeowners. They are getting spoiled with 61" LED for $1600.
ymmv-
db

They're pro-level monitors for TV studios, I believe. If they're the Sony's I'm thinking of there's a 17" and a 25".

Here they are (with video):

http://www.oled-display.net/sony-sho...rison-with-lcd
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post #2433 of 10549 Old 08-18-2011, 07:58 AM
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Originally Posted by rogo View Post

Let's just pretend LG -- which has largely been exactly what guidry called them -- actually does build this fab and does, in fact, start selling OLED TVs in 2013-14. The economies of LCD and plasma manufacturing at that point will have 60" TVs running at $1000-2000 max. OLED will be simply unable to compete at anywhere near those prices. I really don't care what ridiculous responses are going to come to that statement. OLED will be unable to compete. So at best, you are looking at a premium-priced product that sells in relatively small volumes.

No one said they would be in large quantity or price competitive at that point. ALL new techs are more expensive and in short supply when they come into the market. Didn't stop LCD, plasma, or DLP from coming to market, and it won't stop OLED. In fact I wonder why it's ever even brought up as it's obvious?
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post #2434 of 10549 Old 08-18-2011, 08:16 AM
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Originally Posted by pdoherty972 View Post

No one said they would be in large quantity or price competitive at that point. ALL new techs are more expensive and in short supply when they come into the market. Didn't stop LCD, plasma, or DLP from coming to market, and it won't stop OLED. In fact I wonder why it's ever even brought up as it's obvious?

Gimme a break. As of now LG haven't been able to build even a single 55" OLED. There isn't even a prototype. How can they be in production at all next calendar year?.

And the talk of the new OLED fab puts me in mind of a similar promise -- broken of course -- by Samsung say 12-18 mo. ago IIRC. They say a new mfcturing facility is "coming next year" then they just change their minds.

"... we wonÂt be stopping plasma production any time soon. We see it going on for another ten years." -- Kevin Lee, VP, Smart TV Partnerships (Samsung), 1/7/11
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post #2435 of 10549 Old 08-18-2011, 08:37 AM
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Originally Posted by walt73 View Post

Gimme a break. As of now LG haven't been able to build even a single 55" OLED. There isn't even a prototype. How can they be in production at all next calendar year?.

And the talk of the new OLED fab puts me in mind of a similar promise -- broken of course -- by Samsung say 12-18 mo. ago IIRC. They say a new mfcturing facility is "coming next year" then they just change their minds.

Where did you hear/see that about Samsung? They promised a gen 5.5 OLED factory and it was built and online two months early. This year they committed another US $5 billion for a gen 8 OLED factory and as far as I know it's under construction. Where did they promise one and not deliver?
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post #2436 of 10549 Old 08-18-2011, 08:53 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pdoherty972 View Post

Where did you hear/see that about Samsung? They promised a gen 5.5 OLED factory and it was built and online two months early. This year they committed another US $5 billion for a gen 8 OLED factory and as far as I know it's under construction. Where did they promise one and not deliver?

We were talking about it in these forums a year or two ago ... can anyone help me out here? I don't expect anyone to take my word for it. Then again, I wouldn't take LG's word re: the new OLED capability either.

"... we wonÂt be stopping plasma production any time soon. We see it going on for another ten years." -- Kevin Lee, VP, Smart TV Partnerships (Samsung), 1/7/11
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post #2437 of 10549 Old 08-18-2011, 09:28 AM
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Originally Posted by specuvestor View Post

More "daily news rehash" for anyone keen on analysis:
Previous expectations (JPM)
iPad 2 Pro - Sep/ Oct launch ,

Current expectations (JPM)
iPad 2 Pro - likely 1Q11

More pointless rumors that have nothing to do with OLED tvs. But I will comment.

This is just BS rumors. Nothing more.

There never was any reasonable expectation of iPad3/2Pro this year. It is just something bandied about by rumor mongers. Now that the drop dead date gets close, they make up a new rumor to cover their behinds on the old rumor.

It never made sense for Apple, that can barely meet demand on iPad was going to launch a second more complex version only 6 months later in the same year. This was always nonsense. It isn't delayed because it never was planned.

Also to drive 4x the pixels it always made sense to wait for the next generation silicon A6, which was never planned to release before 2012.

There will be no new iPad until 2012, and there was never a new iPad planned before then.
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post #2438 of 10549 Old 08-18-2011, 09:50 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by walt73 View Post

We were talking about it in these forums a year or two ago ... can anyone help me out here? I don't expect anyone to take my word for it. Then again, I wouldn't take LG's word re: the new OLED capability either.

I think you are referring to this:

Quote:
Originally Posted by specuvestor View Post

"LGD has slashed 2011 capex from KRW5.5t to KRW4.5t, and is working to further reduce it to KRW4t. The new P9-8 fab will start in end-4Q11 for 9.7" tablet production for Apple, but the capacity for high-end monitors (IPS) will be pushed back. The capex cut may be an inevitable choice given LGD's cash flow and market situation, but we believe the scrapping of the OLED fab is a big setback as LGD won't have a commercial 4.5G OLED fab to accumulate valuable knowledge and experience that would help it better prepare for the planned 8G OLED fab in 2013." -BNP 25 July 2011

Sammy so far has been more or less inline with their OLED schedule. But talks now is that the 8G ramp will be delayed till 1H13 rather than 2H12 due to bad TV demand.

LGD on the other hand has been smoking pot. I doubt they have the funds to build the 8G fab, much less ramping it.

PS
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Originally Posted by guidryp View Post

There will be no new iPad until 2012, and there was never a new iPad planned before then.

I am following up on the PREVIOUS Ipad3 discussion because that was when i didn't find u obnoxious. I assume u are referring to Jul 2012 and not Jan 2012. I have also said prima facie it doesn't make sense. But I follow the chain not the mouth. I assume the analysts at JP Morgan would know the chain better to put "rumor" in black and white and incorporate it in their sales projection. We'll see.
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post #2439 of 10549 Old 08-18-2011, 11:31 AM
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@guidry, correct, the iPad3 was never, ever on this year's roadmap. Just because idiots at Digitimes and JP Morgan think it was doesn't make them right. It absolutely never was.

@spec, I'm just telling you in this case, there was no "Retina Display" iPad3 on Apple's 2011 roadmap. Ever. It wasn't happening. It'd have been so un-Apple-like, it's not even funny. And with no real competition to iPad this holiday season, more than unnecessary. No sources here in the Valley believe there was a chance this product was ever intended for 2011; I'll leave it at that.

@pdoherty, the world that plasma, LCD and DLP entered is light years removed from the world OLED entered. Plasma could intro at $25,000. LCD TVs could ship at $10,000 for the big sizes. DLP could come along with greater brightness and smaller cabinets than CRTs could ever dream of (it also sat utterly stillborn when it first came to RPTV with a foolish attempt to price it many times higher than CRT... pretty much zero sales).

The world OLED TV hopes to enter is one of $1000-2000 flat panels. Nothing left to be compelling about simply by being flat. The perceived weaknesses of LCD aren't stopping it from flat out selling to nearly everyone, everywhere. RPTV couldn't come close to doing that. This is not the same world. Basically two new TV technologies, ever, have had lasted inroads into the CRT market: LCD and PDP. It took each decades to get established and they offered world-changing features vs. CRT.

OLED still doesn't.

The fact is that if Spec is hearing chatter that Samsung is delaying 8G OLED till 2013, we can almost be 100% assured it's already delayed till 2013. Why would they be investing in a tiny, niche market for high end sets given how bad the TV market is right now to try to make this real for next year? They almost certainly wouldn't. So we're back to the point where:

* LG can't actually fund volume production of OLED TVs and therefore any claims by them are almost automatically to be ignored. An affordable 50"+ OLED from LG is still 5 years or more away.

* Samsung timetable for market entry into OLED TV is back to a minimum of 2+ years from now. Plant spent in 1H13, first sampling in 2H13... First real TVs? Late 2014? First affordable 50+" OLED TVs? Sounds like 5 years away. In 5 years, high performance 60" LCDs will routinely be available for $1000 or less. How OLED is going to compete with this is not clear.

It's when you get back into this chicken-and-egg trap that you begin to understand why OLED TV can easily never reach fruition. But even if you believe that someone will spend billions on the leap of faith, you can't really believe you are buying one for 5 years or so. And we've been saying that for close to a decade now. That should tell you something.

There is no difference in HDMI cables. If you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working.
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post #2440 of 10549 Old 08-18-2011, 12:37 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo View Post

@guidry, correct, the iPad3 was never, ever on this year's roadmap. Just because idiots at Digitimes and JP Morgan think it was doesn't make them right. It absolutely never was.

Also that didn't look anything like a quote from a JP Morgan PR anyway.

As far as digitimes, they have less credibility than the town drunk. They use bogus rumors to drive traffic, chances are none of us would have heard of them without their regular rumor appearances.

In 2010 digitimes sourced an endless variety of mini-ipad rumors usually with claims that it was from suppliers/supply chain. Clearly they are either making just stuff up or someone else is making it up and feeding it to them because they are always completely out to lunch.

Rumor from digitimes that 5" -7" Ipads are coming in early 2011, citing supplier info. (original link blocked or erased now by digitimes)
http://gizmodo.com/5512324/mini-ipad...says-digitimes

Rumor that 5.6" and 7" OLED ipads are coming in early 2011:
"The sources noted that Apple has recently placed new iPad orders to Taiwan-based component makers for the fourth quarter of 2010 and the first quarter of 2011 with 9.7-inch, 5.6-inch and 7-inch models all included."
http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20100713PD207.html

Rumor of 7" ipad with 1024x768 resolution screen in 2011:
"the company will also launch a 7-inch iPad using the Cortex-A9 processor and an IPS panel with a resolution of 1024×768, according to Digitimes Research senior analyst Mingchi Kuo."
http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20100809VL202.html

As far as I am concerned Digitimes is a complete garbage site responsible for starting most of these bogus rumors.
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post #2441 of 10549 Old 08-18-2011, 01:21 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo View Post

\\

* Samsung timetable for market entry into OLED TV is back to a minimum of 2+ years from now. Plant spent in 1H13, first sampling in 2H13... First real TVs? Late 2014? First affordable 50+" OLED TVs? Sounds like 5 years away. In 5 years, high performance 60" LCDs will routinely be available for $1000 or less. How OLED is going to compete with this is not clear.

Unless spec has something dramatically new, Samsung is still supposed to start up a pilot Gen 8 fab in 2012. The capex for that fab will be spent in the 2nd half of this year. My understanding is that this will fab will have a considerable capacity for a pilot line. This wont be like the pilot line making $3000 11" OLED's for Sony. That fab would pretty much guarantee that spec and I end up on the right side of the 30" for $5000 debate.

Assuming things go well, and that obviously isnt a given, the commercial version of the Gen 8 fab would start construction next winter. That would be the fab that would bring 50" OLED TV's to Best Buy at somewhat reasonable prices.

Slacker
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post #2442 of 10549 Old 08-18-2011, 03:46 PM
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Slacker, I'm just curious about something. And I mean this sincerely, in what universe do you think there is a market for a premium-priced 30" TV? Who is buying that and what are they doing with it?

There is no difference in HDMI cables. If you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working.
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post #2443 of 10549 Old 08-18-2011, 06:24 PM
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Unless spec has something dramatically new, Samsung is still supposed to start up a pilot Gen 8 fab in 2012. The capex for that fab will be spent in the 2nd half of this year. My understanding is that this will fab will have a considerable capacity for a pilot line. This wont be like the pilot line making $3000 11" OLED's for Sony. That fab would pretty much guarantee that spec and I end up on the right side of the 30" for $5000 debate.

Assuming things go well, and that obviously isnt a given, the commercial version of the Gen 8 fab would start construction next winter. That would be the fab that would bring 50" OLED TV's to Best Buy at somewhat reasonable prices.

Slacker

Yes the delay to 1H13 is for the RAMP. They will likely continue the investment before that, albeit at slower pace. So Rogo's timeline of 2 years delay is incorrect. Reason why ramp is important is because that is when u need to start depreciation.

31" does not depend on 8G. 5.5G more than suffice for $5k price point IF utilization is relatively high. Market for this will be the same market as Sharp Elite buyers

PS
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Originally Posted by guidryp View Post

Also that didn't look anything like a quote from a JP Morgan PR anyway.

Nope of course not. JP Morgan PR talks about JP Morgan stock.

Digitime on its own is not credible but I've heard multiple chatters. I get a dozen rumours every week and I only post one last year that sounds remotely plausible.
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post #2444 of 10549 Old 08-18-2011, 11:06 PM
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1) I'm not suggesting there is a 2-year delay. I'm suggesting that late 2014 sounds right for 50+" OLED TVs to come from a plant that they are not yet constructing. Since we both agree no 50+" TV is coming next year, we seem to be quibbling over whether it's coming in 2013 or 2014.

2) "31" does not depend on 8G. 5.5G more than suffice for $5k price point IF utilization is relatively high. Market for this will be the same market as Sharp Elite buyers "

No, Spec, they are not the same buyers. The Sharp Elite buyers are looking for big screens, 60 and 70 inchers. The only reason there is even a 60-inch Elite is the rather loud acknowledgement that some folks wouldn't consider a 70-inch but want impeccable picture quality.

A 31" display caters to no serious videophile for any space I can imagine. It's too small to even sit at the foot of a bed for most people, way too small for a family room. It'd be nice for a home-office TV (although most people don't have TVs in those rooms and can watch on their computers) which hardly tends to be videophile zone.

The 31" OLED is such a bizarre product it's hard to imagine much of anyone wanting it if the price was good. Since the price will be bad, we are again talking about a worldwide demand in the single-digit thousands. I don't see Samsung making such a thing now or ever to be completely honest. At least I can imagine a market for whatever comes out of the 8G fab. In the meantime, the existing fab can be kept plenty busy on the cellphone and tablet markets.

There is no difference in HDMI cables. If you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working.
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post #2445 of 10549 Old 08-18-2011, 11:53 PM
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The proof of the pudding is you can get 31" at $5k next Christmas if you want to ie not vaporware like LG.

Honestly like I posted before, 8G is still uncertain based primarily on 5.5G utilization and premium product demand, which is a function of global economy. So for those keen on a 50+" OLED just hope OLED tablet and handset sell well
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post #2446 of 10549 Old 08-19-2011, 05:20 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo View Post
Slacker, I'm just curious about something. And I mean this sincerely, in what universe do you think there is a market for a premium-priced 30" TV? Who is buying that and what are they doing with it?
Two points.

1) Bringing out a premium priced ~30" (or 4x") television is all part of the process of commercialization. These arent meant for volume sales but to help prove the manufacturing methods to justify further capex. Sales arent going to be large, but they will be orders of magnitude above what Sony and LG delivered.

2) I think you ignore the importance of fab size in this debate. OLED's and LCD's meant for the smartphone market are produced on the same sized substrates and the price premium is fairly small (~20%). There is simply nothing fundamental to the manufacturing of OLED's that makes them priced astronomically. It is all about the yields and the size of the fab. The prices of the LG and Sony televisions mean precisely nothing when you are talking about the ultimate prices of OLED televisions.

We are either going to see televisions next year from Samsung's commercial Gen 5.5 fab or from a pilot Gen 8 fab. Both are capable of producing 30" televisions for far below $5000. I dont expect good yields at that point from the Gen 8 fab, but assuming that they can ramp them over time, a Gen 8 fab is perfectly capable of delivering competitively priced 30" to 50" televisions.

I should reiterate though that while I am confident about the ramp in yields at the Gen 5.5, the Gen 8 fab is an unknown. They are going to be using new processes in that fab so we'll probably need to wait a while to make concrete predictions on 50" televisions.

Slacker
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post #2447 of 10549 Old 08-19-2011, 08:46 AM
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Any idea when we might at least see 15" OLED laptops? (from the major manufacturers, with a price premium of less than $1000 dollars).
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post #2448 of 10549 Old 08-19-2011, 09:31 AM
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@slacker if you've been reading the 70"+ thread, you'll see i discussed size of glass is not exactly the reason for cost down as it is not exactly a semicon process. The bigger motherglass is more expensive per sq m. It is a CONVENIENT understanding. Key is the VOLUME to drive cost down; so u can have 20G or whatever but with no volume u cannot cost down. So OLED adoption or utilization would be key.

Though I'm not so well verse with OLED process to say if the cash cost of similar LCD size OLED will only be 20% more, but as we discussed, the CAPEX is much higher.
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post #2449 of 10549 Old 08-19-2011, 01:19 PM
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@Slacker, I understand your point that it's "part of the process of commercialization". It's an incredible dead end however. And while I agree that the price premium on smartphone screens is fairly small, a significant reason for that is they've already made millions of smartphone AMOLED screens. Whatever learning curve effects, volume efficiencies, etc. that can be wrung out there have been.

While it's true that a Gen 8 fab can probably produce reasonably priced 30 to 50" televisions, it's simply not true that they'll priced like LCD televisions. There'll be a premium -- probably a multiple -- for years. And, regardless, in TV the cost of the panel can't be hidden inside a phone that gets subsidized by a carrier into a completely fake retail price (flagship phones get subsidized more by both the carrier and the phone manufacturer).

@Krik, no one seems to be planning on doing that. 2014-15 seems possible though.

@Spec, weird things are happening with motherglass vs. end products. For a while, mfrs. were in the business of claiming that really big glass was not especially useful for really small screens -- you and someone I believe showed me some link about diminishing or even negative returns from doing this. Yet, we here reports that Sharp is converting one of its newer plants (or at least a production line in one) to smartphone or tablet production which presumably is at least 8G glass.

Anyway, I'm not persuaded that there was any business case for really expensive, not especially amazing OLED TVs next year before the recent bad economic news (despite how great small OLEDs are, there is reason to believe that the first very large ones are not going to be especially bright). The case for them now is a lot less clear. I still hope you're both right and still think I'm looking at 2016 before I can even begin to contemplate buying one in a size of any interest.

There is no difference in HDMI cables. If you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working.
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post #2450 of 10549 Old 08-19-2011, 04:25 PM
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Someone else Logic is simple because smaller panels have generally lower ASP per m2

But retina display has higher ASP per m2 than even TV. That's why it make sense for Sharp in THIS environment and why LGD results has been relatively stronger than peers. I have also not posted talks that Apple will inject $1b into Sharp as not sure under what form of "capital" will that be, maybe just pre-payment like hynix? So that would be a great incentive for Sharp to make the bet.
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post #2451 of 10549 Old 08-19-2011, 05:00 PM
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It sounds like Apple is definitely doing this in some fashion as they have in the past with others (to the tune of almost $4 billion at other times). I kind of wonder if they aren't getting small ownership stakes in some of these operations.

I do hear what you're saying: Higher res, small displays are more valuable than lower rez ones making the bet more interesting. But there was some other analysis that seemed to imply that large motherglass loses its appeal as a substrate for lots and lots of little displays. Like you wouldn't make phone displays on a 10G fab, no matter what, because the economics actually turn against you at some point. Maybe that's because cutting becomes a cost/risk part of the equation eventually? Or because the small amounts of inter-panel waste start to add up when you start making 50 on a substrate? I don't know.

There is no difference in HDMI cables. If you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working.
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post #2452 of 10549 Old 08-19-2011, 05:04 PM
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The medical imaging industry and the graphic image and editing industry both use digital displays with greater then 1080p resoloution today such as the WQXGA (2560×1600) displays described in the following link:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Graphic...ay_resolutions
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post #2453 of 10549 Old 08-19-2011, 05:09 PM
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Originally Posted by specuvestor View Post

@slacker if you've been reading the 70"+ thread, you'll see i discussed size of glass is not exactly the reason for cost down as it is not exactly a semicon process. The bigger motherglass is more expensive per sq m. It is a CONVENIENT understanding. Key is the VOLUME to drive cost down; so u can have 20G or whatever but with no volume u cannot cost down. So OLED adoption or utilization would be key.

Though I'm not so well verse with OLED process to say if the cash cost of similar LCD size OLED will only be 20% more, but as we discussed, the CAPEX is much higher.

Are you talking about the actual cash cost per square meter for the mother glass? Do you have a source? I'd be interested in seeing the numbers.

Regardless, my point about moving to larger sized glass has rested on the gains in efficiencies. The move from Gen 4 to Gen 5.5 glass gave something like a 2.9x increase in glass size, but Samsung estimates a 6.3x increase in the number of 10" displays that can be cut from the glass.

My comment about the 20% premium for OLED's is based on the estimated prices that SMD is charging versus the prices for similar sized smartphone LCD's. They are profitable at that price and it should include the amortization of the enormous capex costs. My WAG would be that the cash cost for the mobile OLED's may be equivalent or even lower than the cash cost for the LCD.

The way I look at it is that SMD has proven that given equivalent glass size and reasonable yields that OLED's are capable of competing with LCD's. The Gen 5.5 fab should give us similar competition for tablet sized displays and a Gen 8 fab should get us there for televisions.

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post #2454 of 10549 Old 08-19-2011, 05:16 PM
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Originally Posted by kriktsemaj99 View Post

Any idea when we might at least see 15" OLED laptops? (from the major manufacturers, with a price premium of less than $1000 dollars).

No target date here.

The problem is two-fold. The constant white background for the vast majority of PC usage drives up the power consumption and that usage pattern also increases the possibility of burn-in. They probably arent far away from solving the energy consumption problem but I have a feeling that burn-in is going to take a while. It is a much worse problem for laptops than for handsets or televisions.

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post #2455 of 10549 Old 08-19-2011, 05:26 PM
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@rogo key is ASP and VOLUME. An 8G probably is 10 4G plant (I'm using memory here) with a one size motherglass. You need consistent volume of one size panel over relatively long product cycle to make sense. Most products' volume drop off after like 6 months. No one else has done it except Apple.

That said I think Sharp 8G should be focused on retina iPad rather than retina iPhone. The output would be huge even for iPhones and LGD is still making those.

@slacker Probably have to check Corning or Asahi on that, and I have to take some time doing the digging in midst of this turbulent stock market :P The detailed logic has been discussed many years back with analysts and panel makers. But it is heuristically easier to market the concept of bigger is better to majority when they were ramping up the 7.5/8/8.5G. As per your Sammy example, it is certainly more efficient but underlying key factor is IF the volume ie utilization is high. The horse is the volume, efficiency or cost down is the cart. People been assuming that volume is a given when it is a bet from the manufacturer's point of view.

Valid point on SMD but the 4.5G fab should be fully depreciated by now and I still don't know if 5.5G is profitable. They have been pretty opaque in this even from SDI which is disappointing.
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post #2456 of 10549 Old 08-19-2011, 05:41 PM
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@Slacker, I understand your point that it's "part of the process of commercialization". It's an incredible dead end however. And while I agree that the price premium on smartphone screens is fairly small, a significant reason for that is they've already made millions of smartphone AMOLED screens. Whatever learning curve effects, volume efficiencies, etc. that can be wrung out there have been.

I dont understand this criticism. They didnt start out making millions of units a month. I believe that SMD first started out making something like 500,000 2.2" units a month. The yields were terrible and they put them into expensive niche handsets destined for certain regions (like Korea only handsets). My guess is that SMD's cost per display on these units was ridiculously high.

As yields improved, management committed more and more capex to increase Gen 4 capacity and that opened up the mass market.

The pilot Gen 8 fab will likely be using new manufacturing methods and will likely follow the same learning curve. Get the yields up to prove out the process and then commit the capex to make it a mass market technology.

How else is this supposed to work? I really feel like I must be missing something with your criticism here.

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post #2457 of 10549 Old 08-19-2011, 11:17 PM
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Originally Posted by slacker711 View Post
I dont understand this criticism. They didnt start out making millions of units a month. I believe that SMD first started out making something like 500,000 2.2" units a month. The yields were terrible and they put them into expensive niche handsets destined for certain regions (like Korea only handsets). My guess is that SMD's cost per display on these units was ridiculously high.

As yields improved, management committed more and more capex to increase Gen 4 capacity and that opened up the mass market.

The pilot Gen 8 fab will likely be using new manufacturing methods and will likely follow the same learning curve. Get the yields up to prove out the process and then commit the capex to make it a mass market technology.

How else is this supposed to work? I really feel like I must be missing something with your criticism here.
My criticism is that the theoretical market for premium 30" TVs does not exist. They should not waste any time on it at all. If they want to make premium TVs, they might as well make them in a size that's saleable.

If they don't, it doesn't matter what the yields are. They won't sell 10,000 30" OLED TVs worldwide at $5,000.

The smartphone displays went into expensive smartphones at first and now go into "premium" smartphones. What they don't do is go into all of Samsung's smartphones. And having seen the 2012 roadmap, it's crystal clear that LCD is still cheaper than OLED. All the lower-end phones use LCD, while the higher end ones use OLED.

That's after 10s of millions of OLEDs have been made in equivalent sizes. Building some amount of 30s is purposeless if your goal is to build a robust business of 50+" premium televisions. I can imagine it for some limited amount of ramp up, but for an actual product? It'd be as useless as trying to sell smartphones with 2.2" screens is now.

There is no difference in HDMI cables. If you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working.
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post #2458 of 10549 Old 08-20-2011, 01:23 AM
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Rogo I hear your point but I also think it should be progressive. If your assessment is right then u are indirectly saying LG is right. That's why I don't believe in LGD's 3.5G to 8G dream.

For completeness, LGD still could but would only be much later (assuming they have the funds), after Sammy's 8G stabilize and mature.
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post #2459 of 10549 Old 08-20-2011, 07:41 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo View Post

My criticism is that the theoretical market for premium 30" TVs does not exist. They should not waste any time on it at all. If they want to make premium TVs, they might as well make them in a size that's saleable.

If they don't, it doesn't matter what the yields are. They won't sell 10,000 30" OLED TVs worldwide at $5,000.

First of all, you make it sound like a 30" television for $5000 has been set in stone. That was just an over/under bar that we have been using for the debate. I would expect Samsung to be able to produce a 30" television on their Gen 5.5 for less than that...and that number wont even be in the ballpark for Gen 8 production.

Second, you are paying way too much attention to potential sales for any televisions in 2012. Samsung could take the television production from their pilot Gen 8 fab next year and sell it for a million dollars a piece, give it away for free, or simply set it on fire and it wouldnt make one iota of difference to the ultimate market for OLED televisions. Anything they sell next year is ancillary to the real questions surrounding the progress in ramping production at the fab itself.

They could sell a 30" television for $1500 next year and be considered a mild success from a sales standpoint but be a failure if they hit some sort of ceiling on yields. In a way, we actually agree. I dont think that there is a market for OLED televisions that sell at 5x the price of LCD's either. My question is whether they can make enough progress in 2012 for me to believe that they are ultimately going to be in the price ballpark of LCD's....and that is all about the total capex and the yields.

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post #2460 of 10549 Old 08-20-2011, 08:52 AM
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http://pro.sony.com/bbsc/ssr/cat-mon...oduct-PVM2541/

The sony 25inch OLED monitor costs $6.100,00 so a 30inch OLED TV would at least cost ya $3.000,00 (up to $5.000,00).
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