4k by 2k or Quad HD...lots of rumors? thoughts? - Page 37 - AVS Forum
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post #1081 of 3692 Old 03-28-2012, 12:51 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by walford View Post

The 3.16 PH is for a 2D display for a 4K display you can go as low as 1.5 PH. The Sony white Paper on 4K at and linked to above and supplied below is the best explanation of 4K advantages and implementation issues that I have read.

https://dealersource.sel.sony.com/ds...aper_Final.pdf

After reading the Sony White paper carefully you will realize that some of the "facts" about 4K posted in some of the above posts are wrong and therefore lead to wrong conclusions.

Note that the 3.16 PH is based on on the most optimistic assumption regarding pixel visibility of 60 pix/deg. Others proposed the level of detail which people can reliably see and got 44 pix/deg as the limit. This translates to the 4K benefit threshold of 2.5 PH which is considerably less than the 3.16 PH. Additional argument in favor of something like 2.5 PH is that the 3.16 PH-type evaluations are made for perfect sources and displays. Adding (high) compression and consumer quality equipment makes the 3.16 PH unrealistic for the home.

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post #1082 of 3692 Old 03-28-2012, 08:51 AM
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So it is looking like the PS4 will be the first native 4K blu-ray player. Supposedly coming out Christmas 2013. Looks like the start of 4K resolution might get here sooner than expected.

"The PS4's GPU in particular, we're told, will be capable of displaying Orbis games at a resolution of up to 4096x2160, which is far in excess of the needs of most current HDTV sets. It'll also be capable of playing 3D games in 1080p (the PS3 could only safely manage 3D at 720p)."

http://kotaku.com/5896996/the-next-p...re-the-details
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post #1083 of 3692 Old 03-28-2012, 01:34 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by irkuck View Post

Note that the 3.16 PH is based on on the most optimistic assumption regarding pixel visibility of 60 pix/deg. Others proposed the level of detail which people can reliably see and got 44 pix/deg as the limit. This translates to the 4K benefit threshold of 2.5 PH which is considerably less than the 3.16 PH. Additional argument in favor of something like 2.5 PH is that the 3.16 PH-type evaluations are made for perfect sources and displays. Adding (high) compression and consumer quality equipment makes the 3.16 PH unrealistic for the home.

BIG thanks for the post!
Now... what does it mean?!?!
Really???

Does it mean the additional resolution of 4K doesn't benefit 'us'?
Or, only in very limited viewing sweet spot (I'm in a very limited viewing sweet spot, ha, ha!!)?

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post #1084 of 3692 Old 03-28-2012, 04:45 PM
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No 4K is an improvement.
Read the entire Sony white paper, here is a quote from it:

"
Viewing distance. General guidelines for HD home theater projection typically suggest viewing distances of 3.0 to 3.5 PH. But 4K is an entirely new home theater experience. Sony recommends viewing distances of 1.5 to 3.5 PH. For home theater enthusiasts who currently sit further back, the VPL-VW1000ES offers the opportunity to sit closer for a new level of viewer engagement. And for those who currently sit closer than 3.0 PH, the Sony projector delivers a new level of clarity, one you can almost feel.
"
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post #1085 of 3692 Old 03-28-2012, 04:57 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by irkuck View Post

Note that the 3.16 PH is based on on the most optimistic assumption regarding pixel visibility of 60 pix/deg.

60 pixels per degree (based on the standard model for 20/20 vision) is not the highest number mentioned in the Sony 4K digital projection document. The highest number was for the NHK study mentioned in this UHDTV document in which people could tell a difference between images at 156 pixels per degree and 312 pixels per degree when viewing images through a synopter. To be fair the vast majority of the increase in perceived image quality was reached at about 100 pixels per degree which was the average eyesight of the 65 people tested.

There is also this NHK article which explains about other aspects of UHDTV (also called Super Hi-Vision) such as frame rate. For example the NHK was originally thinking of using 60 fps but based on further research they went with 120 fps. In fact the most likely reason we see a HEVC level for 4320p120 is because the NHK was involved in the development of HEVC.


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Originally Posted by irkuck View Post

Others proposed the level of detail which people can reliably see and got 44 pix/deg as the limit.

Well in my opinion it makes more sense to design a standard for people with good vision than for people with poor vision. The 44 pixels per degree number you mention was from a 2004 article by an engineer named Mark Schubin. I would mention that Mark Schubin recently did a blog post on 4K and not surprisingly he used 60 pixels per degree in it. To be exact Mark Schubin said that:

Quote:


Human visual acuity is often measured with a common Snellen eye chart, as shown at left above. On the line for normal vision (20/20 in the U.S., 6/6 in other parts of the world), each portion of the optotype character occupies one arcminute (1', a sixtieth of a degree) of retinal angle, so there are 30 cycles of black and white lines per degree.
...
HDTV should, under the same theory, be viewed from a smaller multiple of the screen height (h). For 1080 active lines, it should be 7.15 x 480/1080, or about 3.2h.
...
Another is questions about that theory of normal vision. First of all, there are lines on the Snellen eye chart (which dates back to 1862) below the normal line, meaning some viewers can see more resolution.

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post #1086 of 3692 Old 03-28-2012, 05:33 PM
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I think my bio qualifies my heavily researched article to be a bit more than an "opinion" piece, but whatever.

Not sure why the original link was to the Asian version of CNET. If you don't want to sort through the converted measurements (not done by me, btw), here's the original article:
http://reviews.cnet.com/8301-33199_7...?tag=cnetRiver

I'm enjoying the debate, even if it does seem awfully similar to the argument a few years ago about 720p and 1080p.
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post #1087 of 3692 Old 03-28-2012, 06:07 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sytech View Post

So it is looking like the PS4 will be the first native 4K blu-ray player. Supposedly coming out Christmas 2013. Looks like the start of 4K resolution might get here sooner than expected.

"The PS4's GPU in particular, we're told, will be capable of displaying Orbis games at a resolution of up to 4096x2160, which is far in excess of the needs of most current HDTV sets. It'll also be capable of playing 3D games in 1080p (the PS3 could only safely manage 3D at 720p)."

http://kotaku.com/5896996/the-next-p...re-the-details

I read that today.

Looks like i'll have a 4K BD player in my home next year.......along with millions of other people.

I didn't plan for this to happen. Oh, well.

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post #1088 of 3692 Old 03-28-2012, 10:12 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GeoffreyMorrison View Post

I think my bio qualifies my heavily researched article to be a bit more than an "opinion" piece, but whatever.

Not sure why the original link was to the Asian version of CNET. If you don't want to sort through the converted measurements (not done by me, btw), here's the original article:
http://reviews.cnet.com/8301-33199_7...?tag=cnetRiver

I'm enjoying the debate, even if it does seem awfully similar to the argument a few years ago about 720p and 1080p.

It's always great to have the original author participate in the debate More educated discussions, less misinformation

Firstly I think when you have a title like "Why 4K TVs are stupid" I think you are prepared and probably soliciting responses. Unless of course this is solely for catching readers' attention

Secondly the thing that come to my mind when I see the title is that you believe the industry is stupid. Even the money losing panel industry is not stupid. They are absolutely smart and rationale but very stressed people. They are just caught in the prisoner's dilemma, which you or me would probably also couldn't escape if we were in the same hotseat. And this dilemma has been the unspoken rule of the game.

That said they cannot push something that is unperceivable. The standard digital camera analogy comes to mind. For a short time people went chasing for MP, even 12MP for a small sensor. End of the day Canon shows processing is more important. To paraphrase Buffett: In the short run it is a voting machine, in the long run it is a weighing machine. Of course the key is how you strategise so that you will be around in the long run, because the other side of the coin is as per Keynes: "the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent". But end game is that markets and consumers in aggregate will be rationale in the long run.

They can mislead in marketing, for eg saying LED LCD has better contrast when the improvement is primarily from using glossy front glass and strong backlight. But key still is it must be perceivable by J6P. And anecdotally 4k difference is perceivable, just as OLED vs LCD, not a leap but a jump nonetheless.

It is of course similar to 720p vs 1080p argument and with the same variable at play: size and distance. Do you seriously think 720p is similar to 1080p on a Sharp 70" at 10'? People were in general not thinking of 70" back then when the debate of 720p vs 1080p was raging. To a lesser extend 4k will also be perceivable as average TV size increase, while room size doesn't ie the viewing distance does not increase or may even shrink.

Hopefully you have time to go through the discussions in this thread, not all but past 6 months for eg, so to know we are not stupid nor irrational. We have reasons to believe 4k is not unperceivable. Take a look at 1080p on the Plasma 103"... you will see artifacts not seen on a 100" projector. Hence I keep saying projector and fixed pixel direct view is probably not directly comparable.

BTW I think 8k is too much because I think 80" is about optimal for city dwellers due to logistics.
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post #1089 of 3692 Old 03-29-2012, 02:48 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GeoffreyMorrison View Post

I'm enjoying the debate, even if it does seem awfully similar to the argument a few years ago about 720p and 1080p.

I guess my memory is fuzzy. I'm pretty sure I was told I don't need 1080p. Yet it stomped 720p in the marketplace, didn't cost me more, is better.

Seems like history -- over time -- is destined to repeat itself.

There is no difference in HDMI cables. If you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working. (Oh, and plasma didn't die because of logistics problems, nor does OLED ship in big boxes because it comes from Korea.)
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post #1090 of 3692 Old 03-29-2012, 05:28 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sytech; View Post

So it is looking like the PS4 will be the first native 4K blu-ray player. Supposedly coming out Christmas 2013. Looks like the start of 4K resolution might get here sooner than expected.

"The PS4's GPU in particular, we're told, will be capable of displaying Orbis games at a resolution of up to 4096x2160, which is far in excess of the needs of most current HDTV sets. It'll also be capable of playing 3D games in 1080p (the PS3 could only safely manage 3D at 720p)."

http://kotaku.com/5896996/the-next-p...re-the-details

Christmas 2013. Isn't that gonna cost to much money? There aren't even 4K native players on the consumer market right now. So how much will a christmas 2013 4K PS4 cost?
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post #1091 of 3692 Old 03-29-2012, 09:47 AM
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Originally Posted by rogo View Post

I guess my memory is fuzzy. I'm pretty sure I was told I don't need 1080p. Yet it stomped 720p in the marketplace, didn't cost me more, is better.

Seems like history -- over time -- is destined to repeat itself.

1080p's sales dominance over 720p has vastly more to do with marketing than potential performance differences.
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post #1092 of 3692 Old 03-29-2012, 10:08 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by specuvestor View Post

Firstly I think when you have a title like "Why 4K TVs are stupid" I think you are prepared and probably soliciting responses. Unless of course this is solely for catching readers' attention

Yes

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Secondly the thing that come to my mind when I see the title is that you believe the industry is stupid.

An interesting conclusion to infer. Certainly not implied.

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That said they cannot push something that is unperceivable.

Not sure I agree with that.

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Originally Posted by specuvestor View Post

They can mislead in marketing, for eg saying LED LCD has better contrast when the improvement is primarily from using glossy front glass and strong backlight. But key still is it must be perceivable by J6P. And anecdotally 4k difference is perceivable, just as OLED vs LCD, not a leap but a jump nonetheless.

Definitely. The point of the article, one lost on all the many commentors who didn't actually read it, is not that 4K itself is stupid. In fact I say explicitly: "4K makes a lot of sense." The point is that in the screen sizes most people buy, and the distance most people sit from their TVs, the difference between 1080p and 4K is going to be imperceptible outside of the inevitable breathless marketing push.

If, as some have done, one wants to assume different numbers for average human vision, or distance to the screen, that's fine but doesn't change the overall message.

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Originally Posted by specuvestor View Post

BTW I think 8k is too much because I think 80" is about optimal for city dwellers due to logistics.

Where opinion does come in is where I think 80-inches is way optimistic for what the average person is going to put in their house/apartment. In the AVS bubble, such a screen size is probably small on average. I certainly wouldn't step down to such a tiny screen. But there's an upper limit of "acceptability" that goes far beyond physiological and hardware performance capabilities. Namely, the convincing of the spouse to get a massive TV is and always has been the largest hurdle. Average screen sizes are increasing, but currently the biggest selling models are still under 50-inches, and at that size, at the distance most people sit, 4K is stupid. I think drawing a conclusion that because average screens have been getting larger, that they'll continue to get larger, is incorrect. I think there will be a "size plateau." I don't think everyone's going to have an 80-inch+ TV even if they are $500. That is, up until the point of the Total Recall-style wall TVs.

But like I and others have said, 4K is still going to happen. For those who want it, have at it. I'm just trying to save people some money.
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post #1093 of 3692 Old 03-29-2012, 11:05 AM
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Originally Posted by specuvestor View Post

Secondly the thing that come to my mind when I see the title is that you believe the industry is stupid. Even the money losing panel industry is not stupid. They are absolutely smart and rationale but very stressed people. They are just caught in the prisoner's dilemma, which you or me would probably also couldn't escape if we were in the same hotseat. And this dilemma has been the unspoken rule of the game.

Saying the industry is stupid is just a shortcut. The problem here is of previous generation companies not being able to adapt to current realities, in this sense they are stupid. Best new example of this is Sharp which pushed questionable big TV biznes while at the same time having no money and capacity for panels where there is unsatiable demand: mobile and ipads. Speaking about the 4K there is clear market for 4K computer monitors but industry fixated on size prestige does not see it attractive.

The market for 4K TVs is really limited. 4K makes some sense for the 80+ segment and becomes necessity for 110" behemoths.
But size of this segment is so small it does not attract content producers. Content industry is going the way audio made before: quality improvement is of little importance if it is already good enough, what is important is fast download.

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post #1094 of 3692 Old 03-29-2012, 12:05 PM
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Originally Posted by sytech View Post

So it is looking like the PS4 will be the first native 4K blu-ray player. Supposedly coming out Christmas 2013. Looks like the start of 4K resolution might get here sooner than expected.

"The PS4's GPU in particular, we're told, will be capable of displaying Orbis games at a resolution of up to 4096x2160, which is far in excess of the needs of most current HDTV sets. It'll also be capable of playing 3D games in 1080p (the PS3 could only safely manage 3D at 720p)."

http://kotaku.com/5896996/the-next-p...re-the-details

Haha. Never going to happen, unless the PS4 is still five years away.

If the PS4 is due out next year, and is based on the 7000 series of cards, it has to be from the very low end of the range, because the PS4 is not going to be as expensive as the PS3 was at launchthey learned their lesson last time.

The low end is nowhere near powerful enough for 4K gaming at playable framerates. (and the high end is probably pushing it, at 30fps)
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post #1095 of 3692 Old 03-29-2012, 12:29 PM
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Originally Posted by GeoffreyMorrison View Post

I think drawing a conclusion that because average screens have been getting larger, that they'll continue to get larger, is incorrect. I think there will be a "size plateau." I don't think everyone's going to have an 80-inch+ TV even if they are $500. That is, up until the point of the Total Recall-style wall TVs.

Nearly everyone here agrees with that, except a few outliers who think their preferences somehow represent the market. If anything, current trends in LCD and the new push for OLED is going to slow the push to larger screens. But it's actually possible the TV people know how few consumers are looking for giant screens already and have segmented accordingly.

What I mean by that is Sharp owns 70" and up currently and will maintain something resembling 100% of that market for the next year or more (now that Foxconn/Hon Hai/Chi Mei owns half of Sakai, we'll see). Nothing in the world is on the drawing board to produce any meaningful quantity of 70" displays or larger. No OLED plan includes them, except in the vague, hand-waving way those mfrs. have promised and failed to delivered 70"+ LCDs.

Without volume, we won't see those lower prices anytime soon either. But given that there is absolutely a finite limit on the 70" market, let alone the 80" market, it's not shocking that most companies aren't rushing to push those sizes.

That said, there is a market in the 60-80" range that's going to benefit from 4K. And headlines implying they are stupid, well....

There is no difference in HDMI cables. If you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working. (Oh, and plasma didn't die because of logistics problems, nor does OLED ship in big boxes because it comes from Korea.)
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post #1096 of 3692 Old 03-29-2012, 12:31 PM
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PS4 will likely upscale to 4k in games at best. 4k and above gaming is possible only on high-end PCs.
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post #1097 of 3692 Old 03-29-2012, 05:38 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GeoffreyMorrison View Post

Definitely. The point of the article, one lost on all the many commentors who didn't actually read it, is not that 4K itself is stupid. In fact I say explicitly: "4K makes a lot of sense." The point is that in the screen sizes most people buy, and the distance most people sit from their TVs, the difference between 1080p and 4K is going to be imperceptible outside of the inevitable breathless marketing push.

If, as some have done, one wants to assume different numbers for average human vision, or distance to the screen, that's fine but doesn't change the overall message.

Where opinion does come in is where I think 80-inches is way optimistic for what the average person is going to put in their house/apartment. In the AVS bubble, such a screen size is probably small on average. I certainly wouldn't step down to such a tiny screen. But there's an upper limit of "acceptability" that goes far beyond physiological and hardware performance capabilities. Namely, the convincing of the spouse to get a massive TV is and always has been the largest hurdle. Average screen sizes are increasing, but currently the biggest selling models are still under 50-inches, and at that size, at the distance most people sit, 4K is stupid. I think drawing a conclusion that because average screens have been getting larger, that they'll continue to get larger, is incorrect. I think there will be a "size plateau." I don't think everyone's going to have an 80-inch+ TV even if they are $500. That is, up until the point of the Total Recall-style wall TVs.

But like I and others have said, 4K is still going to happen. For those who want it, have at it. I'm just trying to save people some money.

Point noted. I did see that statement you made. I think the difference is hence our assumption of screen size. The article sound like you're saying 4K is stupid but your implied assumption is screen size will remain sub 60" for general public. That makes sense. But what I take issue is also your focus on seeing pixels. As I posted, i think it's ridiculous honestly. Vision is more than resolution and pixel. It's like many forumers just focusing on a singular number like MLL. Does 0 MLL count for much if gamut is limited or greyscale is wrong or the video processor sucks? Despite some claims here, nobody sees pixel. It's hard enough to see dithering or SDE. If you see it you are too near to the screen or something is wrong with the source.

So it all buoys down to size, which we discussed at length in the 70"+ thread. 7 years ago when Samsung SDI IR said they are going to dominate the 60" market, I thought he's spewing crazy marketing talk. Who would even want such a big screen?

Back to the present, we see the ave TV size in China is coming 42". But if we look at details we see the top selling model is 46/7" and 32". There is a clear market segmentation here: the average has become misleading. This is coming from a market whose ave size was 32" just 3 years ago.

Perception change. WAF perception change. 70" doesn't look that big with 80" around. Look at human psychology and you'll realize most people will opt for larger if money is no problem or there is no regulatory or logistics constraint. Bigger house, bigger cars, bigger fridge, etc. Problem is of course perceptions will take time to change. Most people in my affluent country thinks 42" is "small" nowadays. Took 10 years. Developing Asia will love huge screens. Asians in general don't have issues with huge screen dominating one wall. Nonetheless been saying for a while that I think reasonable size will peak at around 80" for city dwellers for pragmatic reasons, not preference. There's physical constraint.

The difference has to be perceivable. As I posted many times, OLED will fail if it is not perceivably better than LCD, and I'm an OLED hopeful. 4k will have to demonstrate it's perceivably better, just as 50% pricier retina screens.
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post #1098 of 3692 Old 03-29-2012, 08:25 PM
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For me, 4K means "full" 1080p 3D.
Done here.


BIG thanks all!

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post #1099 of 3692 Old 03-30-2012, 01:33 AM
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Originally Posted by rogo View Post

What I mean by that is Sharp owns 70" and up currently and will maintain something resembling 100% of that market for the next year or more (now that Foxconn/Hon Hai/Chi Mei owns half of Sakai, we'll see). Nothing in the world is on the drawing board to produce any meaningful quantity of 70" displays or larger. No OLED plan includes them, except in the vague, hand-waving way those mfrs. have promised and failed to delivered 70"+ LCDs. Without volume, we won't see those lower prices anytime soon either. But given that there is absolutely a finite limit on the 70" market, let alone the 80" market, it's not shocking that most companies aren't rushing to push those sizes. That said, there is a market in the 60-80" range that's going to benefit from 4K. And headlines implying they are stupid, well....

Yes, the market is limited but on a global scale including New Asia (China/India...) there is a niche which an emerging black horse wants to conquer and is likely to do so @bargain price for 4K&monstersize. Remember, these guys are working like an ant hive which is well illustrated by this story from the New York Times March 30, 2012:

Apple executives say that going overseas, at this point, is their only option. One former executive described how the company relied upon a Chinese factory to revamp iPhone manufacturing just weeks before the device was due on shelves. Apple had redesigned the iPhone's screen at the last minute, forcing an assembly line overhaul. New screens began arriving at the plant near midnight.

A foreman immediately roused 8,000 workers inside the company's dormitories, according to the executive. Each employee was given a biscuit and a cup of tea, guided to a workstation and within half an hour started a 12-hour shift fitting glass screens into beveled frames. Within 96 hours, the plant was producing over 10,000 iPhones a day


The ant hives of China were working on assembly and low-tech, but now they are counting last minutes before launching their own high-tech.

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post #1100 of 3692 Old 03-30-2012, 09:43 AM
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As is often the case, your point has gone somewhere over my head, irkuck.

If you are suggesting TCL is going to become a major player in LCD, so be it. That's just more bad news for Japan and Korea. It's not going to change what consumers want to buy.

There is no difference in HDMI cables. If you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working. (Oh, and plasma didn't die because of logistics problems, nor does OLED ship in big boxes because it comes from Korea.)
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post #1101 of 3692 Old 03-31-2012, 07:55 AM
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As is often the case, your point has gone somewhere over my head, irkuck. If you are suggesting TCL is going to become a major player in LCD, so be it. That's just more bad news for Japan and Korea. It's not going to change what consumers want to buy.

As is often the case, you are unable to reach the depth of my thought .

I was always saying the big TV market segment is too small to be profitably sustained by any company. Especially the monster TV segment. But indeed, this was assuming companies in question are from Japan and Korea. Entering the market by China is game changer since they can operate at much lower price level. At this price level and top class product, the product will be affordable to consumers both in the West and the East, and the market is expanded. This brings volumes which can be profitable for a company. Definitely the TCL aims for this. TCL is now global company with manufacturing in every area and 60000 employees. It is beyond the reach of Korean and Japanese to offer product matching the 4K 110" LCD at price levels which TCL may offer.

BTW, the 110"@4K is killer for home theater projectors.

The only question is when the 110" is sold outside China. They will launch it first in China to iron out whatever problems may occur and go externally with perfected product.

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post #1102 of 3692 Old 03-31-2012, 08:40 AM
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BTW, the 110"@4K is killer for home theater projectors.

The only question is when the 110" is sold outside China. They will launch it first in China to iron out whatever problems may occur and go externally with perfected product.

its an edge-lit, probably sucks in a darkroom. and i have doubts about its quality since its a commie LCd.
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post #1103 of 3692 Old 03-31-2012, 11:46 AM
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As is often the case, you are unable to reach the depth of my thought .

Clearly. But if I stick something in there, I might lobotomize you.
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I was always saying the big TV market segment is too small to be profitably sustained by any company. Especially the monster TV segment. But indeed, this was assuming companies in question are from Japan and Korea. Entering the market by China is game changer since they can operate at much lower price level. At this price level and top class product, the product will be affordable to consumers both in the West and the East, and the market is expanded. This brings volumes which can be profitable for a company.

I'll agree with you on that. I don't agree that the market is currently held back by price however nor that the Chinese will radically be altering pricing. Sharp 70" TVs are already a deal as are many 60" TVs. Will the Chinese-made offerings eventually be cheaper? Of course, but we're not talking halving the then-going market rate. These products are not especially labor intensive to build, they are capital intensive. Dumping LCD TVs as they've been doing with solar panels would require overinvesting in LCD fabs, which seems less likely.

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Definitely the TCL aims for this. TCL is now global company with manufacturing in every area and 60000 employees. It is beyond the reach of Korean and Japanese to offer product matching the 4K 110" LCD at price levels which TCL may offer.

It's beyond the reach of all-but about 1-2% of the developed world's homes to fit a 110" TV in through a door and find a wall to put it on. Look, I'm excited about such a product; I just don't think it's really going to do much. Some tiny number of people would choose to buy one. Awesome.
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BTW, the 110"@4K is killer for home theater projectors.

A tiny market that nearly no one has turned a penny of profit in for more than a decade may die. R.I.P.
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The only question is when the 110" is sold outside China. They will launch it first in China to iron out whatever problems may occur and go externally with perfected product.

Call me when it's here.

There is no difference in HDMI cables. If you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working. (Oh, and plasma didn't die because of logistics problems, nor does OLED ship in big boxes because it comes from Korea.)
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post #1104 of 3692 Old 04-01-2012, 04:39 AM
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I'll agree with you on that. I don't agree that the market is currently held back by price however nor that the Chinese will radically be altering pricing. Sharp 70" TVs are already a deal as are many 60" TVs. Will the Chinese-made offerings eventually be cheaper? Of course, but we're not talking halving the then-going market rate. These products are not especially labor intensive to build, they are capital intensive. Dumping LCD TVs as they've been doing with solar panels would require overinvesting in LCD fabs, which seems less likely.

Notice the talk is about 4K TV. 4K@110" would be pricey from traditional manufacturers. Regarding the capital expense it is most likely TCL have not spent bazillions on a XXX-gen plant, they probaly use relatively small glass and make volumes by working like ant colony.

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It's beyond the reach of all-but about 1-2% of the developed world's homes to fit a 110" TV in through a door and find a wall to put it on. Look, I'm excited about such a product; I just don't think it's really going to do much. Some tiny number of people would choose to buy one. Awesome. A tiny market that nearly no one has turned a penny of profit in for more than a decade may die. R.I.P. Call me when it's here.

True, single percent of all dwellings can accommodate 110" TV. But what means developed world is another question. I indicated we have to forget about the traditional developed world. If the price level is right one has to add to the traditional developed world also a developed part of the developing world (led by China, India, Asia in general). All together this is substantial market size for profitable volumes. If affordable 4K 110" shows up it will be a killer for home projector market and people upgrading from projectors to the LCD.

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post #1105 of 3692 Old 04-01-2012, 07:53 AM
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^^ essentially what I said below, but I too am confused by the depth of your thinking: didn't you insist vehemently that 10G is the mother of cheap huge TVs? I don't think TCL actually has a 10G running.

And as far as I can remember, you think market size for huge screen is minute and 4K is infinitely small, so I guess that makes 4K huge size as sellable as B&O TV?

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Perception change. WAF perception change. 70" doesn't look that big with 80" around. Look at human psychology and you'll realize most people will opt for larger if money is no problem or there is no regulatory or logistics constraint. Bigger house, bigger cars, bigger fridge, etc. Problem is of course perceptions will take time to change. Most people in my affluent country thinks 42" is "small" nowadays. Took 10 years. Developing Asia will love huge screens. Asians in general don't have issues with huge screen dominating one wall. Nonetheless been saying for a while that I think reasonable size will peak at around 80" for city dwellers for pragmatic reasons, not preference. There's physical constraint.

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I don't agree that the market is currently held back by price

I agree mostly what rogo said but a side remark is that we always have to remember that the common definition of middle class globally is $3k income ANNUALLY. Rise of Asian middle-class has huge ramifications for consumption, from raw materials to food source to TVs.
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^^ essentially what I said below, but I too am confused by the depth of your thinking: didn't you insist vehemently that 10G is the mother of cheap huge TVs? I don't think TCL actually has a 10G running.

And as far as I can remember, you think market size for huge screen is minute and 4K is infinitely small, so I guess that makes 4K huge size as sellable as B&O TV?

How do you feel about Chinese and other non Korean/Japanese (taiwanese?) Asian flatscreens manufacturers conquering the european/north-american market, now and in the near future? Is it gonna happen?
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post #1107 of 3692 Old 04-01-2012, 10:14 AM
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Does Vizio count?

But seriously the market segmentation is pretty obvious as per the handset markets, mostly I think due to the back end processing and BLU. Quality wise not likely to happen next 3 years IMHO. I'm talking about the TV brands, not panels, which Asia ex Japan is still relatively weak, except for Koreans.

Furthermore cost of manufacturing in Asia is slowly but surely rising, and by some measure just a small discount to even US, productivity adjusted. That's the price of rising middle class. No deflation here
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post #1108 of 3692 Old 04-01-2012, 10:26 PM
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I agree mostly what rogo said but a side remark is that we always have to remember that the common definition of middle class globally is $3k income ANNUALLY. Rise of Asian middle-class has huge ramifications for consumption, from raw materials to food source to TVs.

Yes, but people making $3K a year aren't buying TVs that are even $1500... I mean, I guess someday the market for this stuff is held back a little bit by price. But, again, people making $3K a year aren't living in dwellings that will logically fir an 80" TV either...

Anyway, neither here nor there for the time being.

Like you, I believe this market grows somewhat over time.

There is no difference in HDMI cables. If you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working. (Oh, and plasma didn't die because of logistics problems, nor does OLED ship in big boxes because it comes from Korea.)
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China GDP per cap was about $3k I think 7 years ago... it is about $5k currently. 4th most populous country, Indonesia, will cross $3k this year. So yes they are currently held back by price, for now.

Point is middle class is growing steadily and demand for these goods will likely be higher than historical as the top 10% as usual will prosper more, and they are on aggregate >100m. Perceptions however will take time to change. The largest luxury market in the world is now China.
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post #1110 of 3692 Old 04-02-2012, 01:07 AM
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^^ essentially what I said below, but I too am confused by the depth of your thinking: didn't you insist vehemently that 10G is the mother of cheap huge TVs?

My thoughts were deeper than this. I was trying to find out how it was possible to offer 70"+ for a then breakthrough price. My initial thought was that they use 10G (with the investment cost deleted) to make 6-8 70" panels, which just fit on the glass, to get the economy of scale. But later when they announced 80" and started talking about 90" it became apparent that there must be another trick. This trick is apparently to use smaller glass with 1-2 panels on it and economy of scale achieved in another way (using older much cheaper lines???).


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^^
I don't think TCL actually has a 10G running. .

TCL definitely does not have 10G but I think they are playing similar trick. Maybe they even have the lines with glass size just enough for one 110" (or 4x55") but highly automated + working like ant colony 24/7 + low labor costs. This might be giving them huge cost advantage over traditional companies.

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And as far as I can remember, you think market size for huge screen is minute and 4K is infinitely small, so I guess that makes 4K huge size as sellable as B&O TV? .

To clarify this, I said that monster display market is an extreme margin of the total display market which makes impossible to make profitable manufacturing.
But this assumes traditional price levels making the products essentially for well-heeled customers in most developed markets. Sharp partially dented this assumptions in the 70" and 80" range. Now if one is talking about 110" @4K the traditional thinking starts again: such product would be too esotheric and too expensive to make profitably. But this thinking may not be true for the companiese like TCL and for the new emerging markets:


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I agree mostly what rogo said but a side remark is that we always have to remember that the common definition of middle class globally is $3k income ANNUALLY. Rise of Asian middle-class has huge ramifications for consumption, from raw materials to food source to TVs.

Such levels of income are based on averages. But Asia is now an example of extreme segmentation. If you take the upper segment of 10-20% of China they are middle class like in developed countries. Overall this is small part of society but in numbers it is 150-250 mln people, getting close to the US population. If the 110" 4K is made at the consumer price levels, by which I mean the price is thought to be justified and people just thinking more where and how to fit it, the (new) global market may be just sufficient to be profitable. One should also add to the market potential of the 110" the home theater projectors since it would be killing them.

I also said many times that 4K is stupid, supporting Jeff viewpoint. But with the110", the 4K is NOT stupid since the viewing distance would be closer to 2PH than even to the 3PH. Of more concern then would be lack of content with suitable PQ to feed such beasts.

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