Originally Posted by sytech
I usually agree with most of your stuff on 4K, but this one I have to disagree. Unless my calculations are wrong, a 110" is only 4.5 feet high and can easily fit through all front doors in the 120 million US households.
It would be about 8 foot wide, and could fit on most walls.
Hmm, I tend to agree that I may have been overly negative about fitting it through the door. I'm more concerned about interior doors and the fact these things can't be bent. But even boxed, they are only a foot thick or so..... Seems mostly doable.
That said, I live in a house that is "average sized" by U.S. standards and larger than average for the market in which I live. It has no place whatsoever for a 110-inch TV. We visited a lot of houses in our real-estate search and have a number of friends who live in urban areas and virtually none of them would accommodate a 110-inch TV. I'm talking affluent America here.
I do believe a good number of U.S. homes could
fit a 110-inch TV. (Will they? In my opinion never for the vast majority). But even in the U.S., I believe you are talking about no more than 10-30% of homes with a bare wall in a spot that is opposite where people would choose to watch TV that is large enough for a TV this big. I admit that there are many different layouts for family rooms and surely some smaller rooms have bigger bare walls to us. What's noteworthy is how few
homes of people we know, however, would allow for these TVs to go anywhere.
In someplace like Japan or Europe, few people have the kind of square footage to justify anything like this -- living spaces are just too small. Spec likes to bring up the giant and growing Chinese luxury market (and it's huge). But it doesn't include millions of colossal residences because, again, there isn't room for them.
Look, there's a market here. Hell, some low-six-figure total of home-theater projectors are sold annually in the U.S. And, yes, the market will enlarge over time. But when we are looking out say 10-20 years and defining the market we're interested in "those people who buy flat panel TVs", the market share of 110-inch models still is going to struggle to reach the low-single-digits percentage-wise. And if it's 5 million annually 10 years from now, I'd be quite surprised.
A standard of comparison is that the entire market for 70-inch-and-up panels last year, globally, was significantly
under 1 million... and, in fact, closer to 100,000 than a million.
I generally have a sense, also, that within a decade, the richer part of the world is going to be rejecting LCD for OLED on the theory that LCD is the cheap stuff sold to the developed world. "We've moved past that stuff". So the actions of a Chinese company focused on LCD might be limited to a smaller portion of the world if it seems like they're peddling inferior tech from the prior generation.