Will low cost LED projectors displace LCD and plasmas?? - Page 7 - AVS Forum
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OLED Technology and Flat Panels General > Will low cost LED projectors displace LCD and plasmas??
rogo's Avatar rogo 02:00 AM 12-05-2012
Greenland, no one is sure. That said, video viewing is moving to smaller and smaller screens at this point, not larger ones.

A better thread here is:

"Will smartphones and tablets displace LCDs and plasmas?"

The answer is, of course, yes... The interesting discussion would be, "how far will that trend get and what does it mean for the selling of televisions"?

Artwood's Avatar Artwood 02:52 PM 12-09-2012
What is the brightest projector in the history of the universe?

I've always wondered which would be brighter--a Panasonic 85-inch plasma or the brightest projector in the history of the universe projecting onto the brighhtest 85-inch screen in the history of the universe?

If price is no object--would that projetcor/screen combo be brighter?

If not then I think that projection belongs in real movie theaters and caves!
Airion's Avatar Airion 05:16 PM 12-09-2012
I don't know how bright the brightest projector in the universe is, but I'm sure it would be brighter than a plasma. How bright is a bright 85" plasma? Let's say 80 foot lamberts.

(For reference, 16 foot lamberts is considered the industry standard for a projected image in a dark room, though I think brighter than that is better. A calibrated flat panel in a dark room would normally be around 30 foot lamberts.)

I did a quick Google search for "brightest home theater projector" and came up with the Panasonic AR100U, a 1080p budget projector, somewhere around 2500 lumens at it's brightest. Using coderguy's calculator, putting in max zoom and a 85" screen, you get a maximum of 130 foot lamberts. Granted, in best picture mode you'd get "only" 52 fL, but then, the plasma wouldn't be looking its best at 80 foot lamberts either.

And you also said the brightest screen, so let's calculate it with a typical high gain 85" screen and assume a gain of 2.0 at the viewing position. Now we get 260 fL at it's brightest and 104 fL in best picture mode.

So the brightness gap between a flat panels and projectors is not what you might think.
rogo's Avatar rogo 07:02 PM 12-09-2012
The "illuminated room" brightness gap is absolutely what you'd think.

Not a single consumer projector on the market will put out a bright image on even an 85" conventional screen (I'd define a 2.0 high-gain as "conventional" for this purpose).

A huge portion of the reason is that the screen will reflect light in the room. There is no way around this with a conventional screen.

The result is a washed out, nearly unwatchable image.
Airion's Avatar Airion 08:48 PM 12-09-2012
The fact is people do have projector setups which allow for ambient light. Not bright rooms of course, but a reasonable amount of light. With the right projector and the right screen (such as a gray screen), you can get a very watchable image. There's necessarily some degree of washing out, but it's a question of how much and if it's noticeable.

Also the question was about brightness, not black levels or contrast. Was 80 foot lamberts not a good assumption for a bright plasma?
rogo's Avatar rogo 01:04 AM 12-10-2012
The fact is you can't watch any projector with ambient light with any acceptable amount of contrast unless you have a specialized screen. I'm sorry, but you can't.
Airion's Avatar Airion 02:27 AM 12-10-2012
Funny how I answer a question about brightness, using solid numbers and measurements to back it up, and now it's all about contrast. The goal posts move as ever.

The fact is acceptable contrast is going to depend on the brightness of the projector, the size of the image, the type of or absence of a screen, and the amount of ambient light. These are highly variant and it's not the case that any projector given any ambient light won't have acceptable contrast. Maybe never acceptable to you, and it probably wouldn't be acceptable to me for critical viewing, but not all viewing is critical viewing. Often projectors in ambient light are used for sports, where you don't need deep blacks or a high contrast ratio.

By the way I do occasionally use my brighter projector in it's brightest mode while letting in some daylight to watch TV. I wouldn't do this for a Blu-ray, but I find the picture nonetheless looks good. You can declare this is impossible, but I'm speaking from experience.
Airion's Avatar Airion 03:11 AM 12-10-2012
Originally Posted by rogo View Post

unless you have a specialized screen.

Also, let's not lose the context of what I was responding to in the post you objected to:
Originally Posted by Artwood View Post

If price is no object--would that projetcor/screen combo be brighter?

Artwood's Avatar Artwood 11:12 PM 12-10-2012
The reason I asked the question was years ago when they first came out with the Mitsubishi 80-inch DLP rear projection set I asked the people at the low priced projection forum which was brighter--that set or any front projection set ups. I think nobody would actually say that front projection was brighter.

Which tended to make me think that yes--projection set ups really belong in the REAL dark--like a movie theater or a cave!

You ever see those spot lights out in mall parking lots that illuminate the clouds in the sky? What if you had a projector like that?

I've heard that the defense department has a spotlight that could be used on the battlefield that is so bright it would blind people but they can't use it because it would be inhumane!

I guess what I'm really wondering is why is it so impossible to make a really bright projector? I mean automobile headlights seems pretty bright to me and they don't cost an astronomical amount of money?

My paranoid side says that yes--it really wouldn't be impossible to have a very bright projector that would work at home but that WOULD put real movie theaters out of business which is why you don't see them! Kinda like the vaccine against cavities that you never see because it would put dentists out of business!

All I know is all the rear projection sets I've ever seen suck--but I've never seen them in a pitch black room--maybe they look good there.

I hate LCD so much I would watch any non LCD projection in the dark before I'd buy flat screen LCD.

Does anybody remember what this thread is about?
rogo's Avatar rogo 11:46 PM 12-10-2012
Yeah, I keep moving the goalposts rolleyes.gifrolleyes.gifrolleyes.gifrolleyes.gifrolleyes.gifrolleyes.gifrolleyes.gifrolleyes.gifrolleyes.gifrolleyes.gifrolleyes.gifrolleyes.gifrolleyes.gifrolleyes.gifrolleyes.gifrolleyes.gif

Because clearly low-cost projectors that produce a totally unwatchable image will be replacing LCDs and plasmas even though in 10 years of affordable projectors they have actually lost share every single year to LCDs and plasmas.
Airion's Avatar Airion 07:04 AM 12-11-2012
Alright, so what this thread is about:

A year ago we saw the introduction of low cost LED projectors. With an LED lamp, the traditional projector disadvantage of lamp life is erased. You can turn it on and off as much as you want. In addition, they're small, some even small enough to be put into a handheld device. This is all nice, but the problem with these projectors is that they're dimmer than their traditional bulb based siblings. On the other hand, LED is a developing technology and is going to get better year after year. Development will eventually hit a wall, but so far the technology has continued to advance since the first LED was developed in 1962. It's come a long way in 50 years, and with the threat of global warming, it should continue to get attention, development, and economic interest in the years to come.

How far can LED technology go in 10, 20, 30 years from now? I don't know, you don't know. What this thread is about is, if LED projectors can become significantly brighter, might some people choose an LED projector, whether as a stand alone device or as a function of a smartphone, in lieu of a flat panel TV? I think so, but predicated on a very big IF. I don't want to bet either on or against future technology. There would have been very little reason to predict the LED home theater projectors of today in the 1960s, and yet any prediction against them have proven wrong in time. I'm not interested in dealing only in certainty or predictions, I'm quite comfortable dealing with uncertainty and various degrees of probability.

Rather than that discussion, others just want to limit any discussion of the future to their ego driven predictions, and only deal with projectors as they exist today and in the past. Nonetheless I appreciate the discussion rogo. wink.gif
greenland's Avatar greenland 07:55 AM 12-11-2012
There is a projector discussion forum. This is not it.

Notice all those people who shunned flat panels on Black Friday, but instead waiting in the cold for hours just to get a shot at getting one of those great discount projectors.wink.gif
Airion's Avatar Airion 02:43 PM 12-11-2012
Though I didn't start the thread, I think it's fine here as it specifically relates to projectors in competition with flat panels. If you're not interested in the thread or you just don't like it, don't read it.
rogo's Avatar rogo 03:08 PM 12-11-2012
LEDs have already hit a wall. They aren't getting brighter, certainly not very much. The gap between the Philips 60w equivalent bulb (12.5w) original and the L-Prize one (10w) is tiny. And that pretty much reflects the state of things in LEDs. Sorry. (Part of the reasons is that LEDs in the lab are quite literally approaching the theoretical limit of efficiency, as in, you will never be able to do any better because you are doing as well as is possible under the laws of this universe. The theoretical limit is around 263 lm/W, products in the marketplace are at about half that. You will never see products that are precisely at the theoretical limit.)[1]

And in projectors it's worse, because etendue doesn't go away. This means you can only place so many LEDs together to form a point source of light in a small space. Sorry, again, can't repeal physics.

None of this fixes screens either. Screens that are cheap reflect room light. Sony tried a non-room-reflecting screen a few years ago. Commercial failure and high cost. There was a Scandanavian screen that was gorgeous. High cost, too. You will not be able to make a cheap screen that reflects only your LED projector's light but not room light. Therefore, you will not have a high-contrast image and what makes LCDs so freaking great is that they offer a high-contrast image on a sunny afternoon, with the lights up, whenever.

Incidentally, projectors are continuing to sell pretty much not at all to U.S. consumers, even though sales have bumped up a bit on the low-end vs. the dismal 2nd quarter. Here's a graph denominated in dollars.

While the cratering of Q2 is over, sales are still below where they were in 2011! Oh, and we are talking about this size of a market: Last year was about $330 million, this year is on track to be smaller. This is for all projectors, including the $30,000 models. So let's just take a ridiculous optimistic set of numbers and assume we are talking an ASP of $1500 (it's probably higher since if you think about it, even one $10,000 projector would pull up the average quite a bit). That's a total of about 220,000 units in the U.S. on the high end (again, it's probably more like half that). That's against 37+ million flat-panel sales for the U.S.

So this bogus trend is accounting for under 1/2 of one perecent of TV sales and has managed this kind of number for the better part of a decade. It hasn't accelerated because of low-brightness, crap-quality LED projectors. Instead, 70" flat panels have broken the $2000 barrier in 2012 -- not terribly far from what it would cost to buy a projector and a screen and have them installed in such a way to make them behave like a television.

As we deepen this thread, we continue to answer the question the same way we started it:

Will low-cost LED projectors displace LCD and plasmas???

Resoundingly no.

Tags: Projectors , Displays , Plasma Hdtv , Lcd Hdtv , Vivitek
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