Originally Posted by JukeBox360
2%? 2016 and you say 2%? I don't know where you are getting your numbers but they got to be wrong. 2016 is 4 years away. A TON of things will change by then. I think every number you've posted is just flat out wrong.
Seriously. Stop. I took the 1% in 2015 from iSuppli and doubled it for 5 years. Unless iSuppli is wildly wrong, my estimates are absolutely approaching some "highest of the high" possible scenario.
Here's the iSuppli press release. http://www.isuppli.com/Display-Mater...ce-at-CES.aspx
Those people make their living talking to people in the display industry. They talked to the people at Samsung and LG and they generated the figures you see. Those figures already represent exponential growth
. If you add my 5 year compounded 100% growth from there, the curve looks like a freaking vertical line. You are entitled to believe that things can grow faster than that. No industry has in the history of mankind, but you can believe it.
I don't know what's with people guessing. Tons of people guess OLED wouldn't even be out or the next 4 years. They were clearly wrong.
The presence of LG and Samsung adds massive amounts of data. With the data, the forecasts for 2015 went to 2 million units from essentially zero units prior to 2012 (and approximately 35,000 units this year per iSuppli).
Since you think these people know nothing, here's DisplaySearch's prediction from 3 years ago
"DisplaySearch forecasts that in 2015, TV will pass mobile phone main display to become the highest-revenue application at $1.92 billion."
So if we divide the current prediction of 2 million TVs in 2015 into a 3-year-old prediction, we would get an average selling price -- for the panel value, not the MSRP of the TV -- of very approximately $1000. That sounds remarkably close to accurate
. It would imply an average fully finished TV cost of ~$1500 or so and an average retail price of around $3000.
If we take this year's model at $8000 and drop the price 30% in 2013, 30% in 2014 and 30% in 2015, we get prices of $5600, $3920 and $2744. It's amazing how well this all lines up
So please, stop explaining how no one knows anything.
Tons of people state these OLED sets will be 15K. Again. Flat out wrong. Not even close in price.
What I reported is that LG promised the sets would be "under $15k". I'm using $8K in my example. It actually doesn't matter. The initial price will fall. If the price is not
below $3000 in 2015, there would be no chance of selling anywhere near 2 million units. If the sales do more than 100% compounded growth after that
it would be nothing short of miraculous. It would also require about $20 billion in fab investment and presumes that people with LCD manufacturing capability will simply let that go fallow as their market gets absorbed by a similar, yet more expensive product. Please.
As for these % 2016 2017 etc. There is no way these numbers are correct.
Actually, they are probably optimistic. But in fact there is a way they are correct. I urge you to look at the history of any capital-intensive technology. Show me more than 100% compounded growth starting in the 4th year on the market. I wish you luck.
All these guesses are just that. Guesses
. Why people are trying to past them on as factual is beyond me.
They are way better than guesses. LG hopes to do the 2013 numbers in 2012. Maybe they will, although nothing in LG's track record at all suggests this. But the point is, that would accelerate the timetable outlined by iSuppli by 1 year, not 5.
By the way, DisplaySearch has a forecast that goes out to at least 2018 and it forecasts revenues, not units (at least not without buying the full one), but it states: "OLED display revenues are estimated to exceed $4 billion in 2011 (approximately 4% of flat panel display revenues), and are forecast to reach more than $20 billion (approximately 16% of the total display industry by 2018)"
Now, that's the entire display industry, which means it includes mobile phones, laptops, etc. Given that OLED will have on the order of 50% of the smartphone market -- or more -- by then and may well dominate the tablet market, a 16% share of revenues (4x as much as today), suggests a TV market share very much around the number I put in my post, +/- a couple of points.
Digitimes also agrees: "While Plasma TV is still a technology in the flat screen TV market its time has passed. The market share is likely to drop from 7% in 2011 to 5% in 2015. A new technology is emerging though, in OLED. OLED TVs will likely join the fight in market of 40-inch and larger in second half of 2012. The market estimates the market share of OLED TVs to reach 2% in the 40-inch and larger category. "
Note, that's 2% of the 40" and up TV market. Shockingly, that's close to 1% of the total market come the 2015 timeframe. Again, their forecast was made last August.
Basically everyone agrees on magnitude and approximately on timing.
You can click my little included chart to see what doubling every year from 2.1 million in 2015 looks like. Feel free to find a chart that's more vertical. Keep in mind that OLEDs are a substitute
for an existing good in 99+% of cases. They don't create opportunities that didn't otherwise exist.