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Join Date: Dec 1999
Location: Stop making curved screens
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Thanks for clarifying on the designations, slacker. The translations of the article are often incomplete.
I saw the same DisplaySearch data and I agree with you. If we use that number, 50"+ is a ~20 million category. If they can scale to, say, 3 million per year and Samsung is also in the market, OLED could capture 25% of that market -- of course, only if pricing is very, very close to LCD already. Since LCD is not evaporating, it's not as if they could capture 100% of the high-end 50+ market unless pricing was within 10-20% at the outside. Mathematically, there's a distribution of sales of TVs even within the category and high-end 50s are probably only 15-20% of that category. So even if we assume the market mix tilts to 50+ over that time, there's a math challenge here. Say the category is 25 million, and the high end of it is 6 million (this seems plausible, if a bit aggressive.)
Within that, you'd need 50% share to sell 3 million and to achieve that you'd need more or less price parity or else the bell curve gets you again. Now, what I mean there is price parity with top-end 55" TVs, which are probably a $2500 product at that point. So perhaps the OLED could run up to $3000, but not higher.
If it's still $6000, there is simply no chance of this scenario coming to pass.
There's a saying about "everything in moderation". If only it was applied to well, you know...