Your Predictions: When will 55" emissive displays (OLED / Crystal LED / Quantum Dot) be below $3000 - AVS Forum | Home Theater Discussions And Reviews
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View Poll Results: What's your prediction for when any of (OLED/Crystal LED/Quantum Dot/Other) will be available for le
2013 0 0%
2014 2 10.00%
2015 10 50.00%
2016 5 25.00%
2017 2 10.00%
2018+ (More than 5 years out) 1 5.00%
Voters: 20. You may not vote on this poll

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post #1 of 16 Old 12-16-2012, 09:53 AM - Thread Starter
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*Regardless of resolution (2K/4K/etc)*

What's your prediction for when any of the following emissive display technologies will be less than $3000 for 55":
  • OLED
  • Crystal LED
  • Quantum Dot
  • Other*****

**** Note: To stave off the pranksters, no I'm not referring to CRT's, nor plasmas. You know what I mean.

Silly poll of course, but looking for a stake in the sand, even if ludicrous.

Thought #AOY: So as a kid I tested the causality chain of something. When my cat was angry, she put her ears back. When that happened, I decided to push them forward, and then she purred. (!) Turns out that it's not that being angry causes the cat to push its ears back, but being angry and pushing their ears back are two parts of the same exact thing. She could not be angry with her ears forward.
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post #2 of 16 Old 12-16-2012, 10:21 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tgm1024 View Post

What's your prediction for when any of the following emissive display technologies will be less than $3000 for 55":
  • OLED
  • Crystal LED
  • Quantum Dot
  • Other*****
**** Note: To stave off the pranksters, no I'm not referring to CRT's, nor plasmas. You know what I mean.
Silly poll of course, but looking for a stake in the sand, even if ludicrous.

LG claims by 2016 OLED's will be as affordable as LCD's are today. I think that's a bit soon. I think by late 2017 we'll see a sub 3k, 55" OLED. CLED is way too far off for my consideration.

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post #3 of 16 Old 12-16-2012, 11:10 AM - Thread Starter
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Originally Posted by hoozthatat View Post

LG claims by 2016 OLED's will be as affordable as LCD's are today. I think that's a bit soon. I think by late 2017 we'll see a sub 3k, 55" OLED. CLED is way too far off for my consideration.

Lots of arguments regarding LG's claims. I like Sony's workable demo too. We'll have to see who can play the fab game best because (of course) LG is claiming that their WOLED (RGBW) technology results in substantially higher yields, and Sony is claiming that using non-organic LED's will beat the price game soonest. That's why I wanted a snapshot of (often very emotional) stances on the subject.

Thought #AOY: So as a kid I tested the causality chain of something. When my cat was angry, she put her ears back. When that happened, I decided to push them forward, and then she purred. (!) Turns out that it's not that being angry causes the cat to push its ears back, but being angry and pushing their ears back are two parts of the same exact thing. She could not be angry with her ears forward.
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post #4 of 16 Old 12-16-2012, 11:39 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tgm1024 View Post

Lots of arguments regarding LG's claims. I like Sony's workable demo too. We'll have to see who can play the fab game best because (of course) LG is claiming that their WOLED (RGBW) technology results in substantially higher yields, and Sony is claiming that using non-organic LED's will beat the price game soonest. That's why I wanted a snapshot of (often very emotional) stances on the subject.

I won't get too emotional on the price game here. Whichever the answer may be let it come to fruition. If PDP's are going to be supplanted and/or disappear by 2014-2015 then we need affordable OLED by then. I'm optimistic. Though I tend to lean towards LG WOLED/RGBW application.

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post #5 of 16 Old 12-16-2012, 01:52 PM
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Sony has not even suggested there will be a product, a plant to build a product, a plant to build a plant to build a product, etc. It's at least as likely Sony will be out of the TV business as that they will be a CLED television by 2016.

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post #6 of 16 Old 12-16-2012, 02:14 PM
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People around here keep running away from a REALITY.

In 2015 all you will be able to buy that doesn't costs trillions like OLED will for a big display will be LCD that sucks!

If sharp goes out of business you won't be able to get a BIG LCD!

We are looking at a video display future that goes backward!!!

Once LCD owns ALL of the market and the Chinese make them CHEAP--how will any new technology be able to break in.

I' don't believe in OLED because I want it to be true!

It is what it is and right now it costs too much!

LCD costs less and sucks and that is what we will be left with for a couple of years!

If I am wrong about that future beyond 2015 then pleas correct me.

Tell me how big OLED will be reasonably priced.

And tell me with a straight face that LCD at that time won't suck like it always has!
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post #7 of 16 Old 12-16-2012, 02:43 PM - Thread Starter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Artwood View Post

People around here keep running away from a REALITY.
In 2015 all you will be able to buy that doesn't costs trillions like OLED will for a big display will be LCD that sucks!
If sharp goes out of business you won't be able to get a BIG LCD!
We are looking at a video display future that goes backward!!!
Once LCD owns ALL of the market and the Chinese make them CHEAP--how will any new technology be able to break in.
I' don't believe in OLED because I want it to be true!
It is what it is and right now it costs too much!
LCD costs less and sucks and that is what we will be left with for a couple of years!
If I am wrong about that future beyond 2015 then pleas correct me.
Tell me how big OLED will be reasonably priced.
And tell me with a straight face that LCD at that time won't suck like it always has!

LOL. How much of this do you have in a file ready for the instant cut-n-pastes?

Thought #AOY: So as a kid I tested the causality chain of something. When my cat was angry, she put her ears back. When that happened, I decided to push them forward, and then she purred. (!) Turns out that it's not that being angry causes the cat to push its ears back, but being angry and pushing their ears back are two parts of the same exact thing. She could not be angry with her ears forward.
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post #8 of 16 Old 12-17-2012, 04:22 AM
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By the time 55'' Oled will be under $3.000,- all of us want a 4K Oled.

When will 55'' 4K Oled be under €3.000.-? 2018+ wink.gif
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post #9 of 16 Old 12-17-2012, 06:12 AM - Thread Starter
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Originally Posted by 8mile13 View Post

By the time 55'' Oled will be under $3.000,- all of us want a 4K Oled.
When will 55'' 4K Oled be under €3.000.-? 2018+ wink.gif

I should have specified that 2K was ok, because many people will view this as a non-starting question without it. I'll edit the initial post. But I can't seem to edit the poll without squashing it, so the poll question will have to stay.

Thought #AOY: So as a kid I tested the causality chain of something. When my cat was angry, she put her ears back. When that happened, I decided to push them forward, and then she purred. (!) Turns out that it's not that being angry causes the cat to push its ears back, but being angry and pushing their ears back are two parts of the same exact thing. She could not be angry with her ears forward.
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post #10 of 16 Old 12-17-2012, 01:27 PM
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Tell me when a 65-inch OLED will cost exactly what a Panasonic VT-50 does today?

How many years till that happens?

Tell me when you can get a 70-inch OLED for that price!

It just isn't going to happen soon--buy plasma while you can--get ready for LCD that sucks--and if Sharp goes out of business forget 70-inch and above displays!
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post #11 of 16 Old 12-17-2012, 03:09 PM - Thread Starter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Artwood View Post

Tell me when a 65-inch OLED will cost exactly what a Panasonic VT-50 does today?
How many years till that happens?
Tell me when you can get a 70-inch OLED for that price!
It just isn't going to happen soon--buy plasma while you can--get ready for LCD that sucks--and if Sharp goes out of business forget 70-inch and above displays!

He never made this point (and I don't think he would), but something about Rogo's arguments regarding fabrication problems got me wondering if the 90" OLED might be radically cheaper to make than the 65" you just mentioned. (If density turns out to be an exponentially-reverse expense proposition, or less clumsy words to that effect.)

Thought #AOY: So as a kid I tested the causality chain of something. When my cat was angry, she put her ears back. When that happened, I decided to push them forward, and then she purred. (!) Turns out that it's not that being angry causes the cat to push its ears back, but being angry and pushing their ears back are two parts of the same exact thing. She could not be angry with her ears forward.
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post #12 of 16 Old 12-17-2012, 05:05 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tgm1024 View Post

He never made this point (and I don't think he would), but something about Rogo's arguments regarding fabrication problems got me wondering if the 90" OLED might be radically cheaper to make than the 65" you just mentioned. (If density turns out to be an exponentially-reverse expense proposition, or less clumsy words to that effect.)

It shouldn't be. The LG method uses substrate-wide vapor deposition of the OLED material. That would be somewhat harder on a larger substrate than a smaller one (not easier). That's not to say it's a lot harder; it is to say it's somewhat harder since a clean, even layer deposited over a larger surface is going to be harder to do. (Again, it may be only very so slightly harder so it might be unimportant either way. But radically easier is off the table.)

The other key part of the manufacturing is the backplane making, which currently seems to be hard. But whatever is making that hard, the first IGZO displays coming out are small ones, not larger ones, any suggesting there is nothing easier about going large.

Incidentally, Samsung's OLED patterning is unequivocally harder on larger displays vs. smaller ones, which is why they don't rule out going to an LG-like method. (Aside: If LG's method proves to have even comparable performance, Samsung will definitely seek to find a patent-acceptable way to switch because going forward, it's almost impossible to believe that LG is not going to find their method much easier and cheaper to scale up.)

And you may ask yourself well how did I get here?
And you may ask yourself am I right? Am I wrong?
And you may say to yourself: What have I done?!
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post #13 of 16 Old 01-02-2013, 11:42 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Artwood View Post

Tell me when a 65-inch OLED will cost exactly what a Panasonic VT-50 does today?
How many years till that happens?
Tell me when you can get a 70-inch OLED for that price!
It just isn't going to happen soon--buy plasma while you can--get ready for LCD that sucks--and if Sharp goes out of business forget 70-inch and above displays!

Imperatively, that's not the question here, or one that really matters to begin with.

Perception, especially in the "perceived quality" dept, correct or incorrect, is reality. TV's, cars, realty, clothes, etc. Doesn't matter what it is.

If some (read: a few, many, or most, lol) feel that a 65 or 70" oled is worth the 10, 20, 30, or 50% price increase over a VT50, they'll pay it...it does not need to mirror any PDP's in price to be successful, that much is for sure.

And although I'll take a good PDP over just about any good LCD, there are plenty (LCDs) out there that do not "suck" and if there's a market (that can produce a profit) for a 3-$4,000 hi/higher end 70" panel out there, it will be produced.

As for when ANY sub $3,000 55, 65, or 70" emissive display will be mass-produced, I really do not know, but I'd think if they gained any traction in the marketplace as a perceived (or real) upgrade to LCD/PDP in the coming year, it would be by 2015.


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post #14 of 16 Old 01-02-2013, 12:12 PM
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If I had to guess, I would say that by 2016, OLED will start to become "affordable" but I think you will find the prices of everything else have also dropped considerably by then.
Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo View Post

It's at least as likely Sony will be out of the TV business as that they will be a CLED television by 2016.
I hate this race to the bottom. frown.gif
Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo View Post

Incidentally, Samsung's OLED patterning is unequivocally harder on larger displays vs. smaller ones, which is why they don't rule out going to an LG-like method. (Aside: If LG's method proves to have even comparable performance, Samsung will definitely seek to find a patent-acceptable way to switch because going forward, it's almost impossible to believe that LG is not going to find their method much easier and cheaper to scale up.)
Do you really think Samsung care about patents?
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post #15 of 16 Old 01-02-2013, 12:23 PM
 
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Maybe a smidgen more than China does? wink.gif
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post #16 of 16 Old 01-02-2013, 12:47 PM
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Originally Posted by Chronoptimist View Post

If I had to guess, I would say that by 2016, OLED will start to become "affordable" but I think you will find the prices of everything else have also dropped considerably by then.
I hate this race to the bottom. frown.gif
Do you really think Samsung care about patents?

I'm not a fan of race to the bottom either, but the TV business has no Apple right now (or equivalent) selling premium/luxury in large numbers. It has a lot of premium/luxury products -- from Samsung, LG, Sony, Panasonic, Sharp -- but they aren't sold with enough volume to make much in the way of profits for anyone. Samsung and LG, at least, eke out profits by controlling their own display production.

Samsung's concern for patents is minimal. But since LG is the one that will sue them, it will be messy. And they lost a display-related suit already (to Sharp). This isn't like, "Oh, we'll just infringe on LG's tech". There will be negotiations, probably via gov't intermediaries.

And you may ask yourself well how did I get here?
And you may ask yourself am I right? Am I wrong?
And you may say to yourself: What have I done?!
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