Originally Posted by rogo
vtms, I'll take the bet on VR vs. AR in the 2020s. I doubt there will be much -- if any -- home virtual reality. It's a non-priority in next-gen consoles, a non-priority among leading tech companies (CE included) and makes staring at your smartphone social by comparison -- never mind the hideous equipment.
I'll happily take that VR over AR bet in the 2020s. Well, VR and AR are actually going to be housed in a single device anyway, so I'm not sure how I'd prove that I won. :-)
Again, discontinuous stuff does happen, just not often. Ask yourself when the last important consumer electronics product came out that was built from a non-industry incumbent that wasn't already a really rich company. To be honest, I'm not sure of the answer, but I suspect it might be Apple II or Atari 2600, both of which were from 1977.
Well, I know the answer and not just one. First, were you familiar with the state of digital film back in 2007? Well, the film still was the only game in town and cameras would cost into hundreds of thousands. Then comes Red out of nowhere and, in 2012, you could make a real-deal motion picture with a 4K camera for $10K. Also, remember what the smartphones pre-2007 looked like. Then came iPhone and revolutionized the industry. And, it's clear to me that Oculus Rift might be even more revolutionary than iPhone.
Additionally, realize that Oculus Rift is not going to be a single VR device for the next decade. Sony continues to work on it, there are other smaller companies too, but you just know Apple is going to get in this game very soon as they are now deep in the gaming business as well as TV and Movie business. Yes, I can't wait to see what Apple does with this technology, because they always jump in after others have made 1st gen. mistakes. They will do it, just watch. They have no choice, actually, and neither does Microsoft, btw.
2013 could really be major for these paradigm-shifting devices in CE world. Highlights:
1. Oculus Rift, ushering VR that's the real deal, not just hype. Finally, 3D done the right way, little latency already, sufficient FOV, potentially OLED panel.
2. Leap Motion, redefining the whole idea of interfacing with electronics. (could be combined with Oculus Rift)
3. Apple known to be working on some device that will revolutionize TV space. (combine all 3 together, Apple-style)
Next year should be very interesting.