Shockingly bad news for the future of affordable large format OLED displays - AVS Forum
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Old 12-17-2012, 11:11 PM - Thread Starter
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Pilot production indicates that 55” AMOLED TV panel straight yield (without repair) is in single digits due to instability in the large backplanes (using LTPS or oxide TFT). Total yield (after repair) is estimated to be less than 30%. Finally, frit encapsulation is too fragile for large area TV, and is resulting in reduced panel life.

If these reports are true, the upcoming OLED vs. 4K war may be over before it even started.



http://www.displaysearchblog.com/2012/12/korean-panel-makers-change-tv-priorities-oled-vs-4kx2k/
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Old 12-18-2012, 12:32 AM
 
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Artwood was right. The horror show is just beginning.
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Old 12-18-2012, 04:34 AM
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I have four words for this.....

There is no difference in HDMI cables. If you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working. (Oh, and plasma didn't die because of logistics problems, nor does OLED ship in big boxes because it comes from Korea.)
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Old 12-18-2012, 05:56 AM
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Originally Posted by rogo View Post

I have four words for this.....

"OLED bites the dust"

"SED all over again"

"Resolution beats quality again"

"Buy a plasma NOW"

"I told you so" wink.gif

Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows.
-George Orwell, Nineteen Eighty-Four
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Old 12-18-2012, 06:26 AM
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Originally Posted by Grubert View Post

"OLED bites the dust"
"SED all over again"
"Resolution beats quality again"
"Buy a plasma NOW"
"I told you so" wink.gif

"Maybe Sony was right."

Java developers, when I saw what has been placed into Java 8 I was immediately reminded of how I've spent so much of my life trying to protect engineers from themselves. Lambda expressions are a horrible idea. Gentlemen: the goal isn't to make code readable for a competent mid-level engineer. The goal is to make code readable for a competent mid-level engineer exhausted and hopped up on caffeine at 3 am. What a disaster Java 8 is!
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Old 12-18-2012, 07:35 AM
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Thank god i love my 55 8500.Looks like it will be with me for a number of years.

Matt
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Old 12-18-2012, 08:09 AM
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what a shock...and no one saw this coming....

please take the high road in every post
if you see a problematic post, please do not quote it or respond to it: report it to the mods to handle
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Old 12-18-2012, 08:23 AM - Thread Starter
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True, most people thought they would have trouble, but there were rumors that they were getting close to 50% or more on the yields as they talked about release dates. The shocking parts is the yields are still in the single digits on the pilot line and still less than 30% with repairs. I was willing to put cold hard cash behind my assessment that OLED would remain vaporware for 2012 back in January. If this report is true it is very bad news for OLED. LG might release a few thousand units next year to sell for the high end niche market like movie studios and visual design, but the odds of affordable large format OLED for the consumer market are in serious question. The emergence of 4K marketing train will also not help.
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Old 12-18-2012, 10:10 AM
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Originally Posted by sytech View Post

True, most people thought they would have trouble, but there were rumors that they were getting close to 50% or more on the yields as they talked about release dates. The shocking parts is the yields are still in the single digits on the pilot line and still less than 30% with repairs. I was willing to put cold hard cash behind my assessment that OLED would remain vaporware for 2012 back in January. If this report is true it is very bad news for OLED. LG might release a few thousand units next year to sell for the high end niche market like movie studios and visual design, but the odds of affordable large format OLED for the consumer market are in serious question. The emergence of 4K marketing train will also not help.

Yes, it's absolutely the case that resolution will clobber quality here.

Java developers, when I saw what has been placed into Java 8 I was immediately reminded of how I've spent so much of my life trying to protect engineers from themselves. Lambda expressions are a horrible idea. Gentlemen: the goal isn't to make code readable for a competent mid-level engineer. The goal is to make code readable for a competent mid-level engineer exhausted and hopped up on caffeine at 3 am. What a disaster Java 8 is!
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Old 12-18-2012, 10:39 AM
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Does this make Sony's Crystal LED more attractive, or do the same issues apply?

As suggested before, a huge, cinematic 4K or 8K panel is awfully attractive, even if it uses medieval technology. biggrin.gif
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Old 12-18-2012, 10:53 AM
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Originally Posted by taichi4 View Post

Does this make Sony's Crystal LED more attractive, or do the same issues apply?
As suggested before, a huge, cinematic 4K or 8K panel is awfully attractive, even if it uses medieval technology. biggrin.gif

I don't find a huge, *ANY* resolution panel using medieval technology attractive.

Simile: This is like people who run to ever increasing mega-pixels as a determinant in buying a camera. You can have a 26 MP camera, and if the image quality is terrible, you'll have 26 million fuzzy or otherwise crappy pixels.

So no, I'm not in your camp at all.

Java developers, when I saw what has been placed into Java 8 I was immediately reminded of how I've spent so much of my life trying to protect engineers from themselves. Lambda expressions are a horrible idea. Gentlemen: the goal isn't to make code readable for a competent mid-level engineer. The goal is to make code readable for a competent mid-level engineer exhausted and hopped up on caffeine at 3 am. What a disaster Java 8 is!
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Old 12-18-2012, 12:25 PM
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Well, no reason to get so intense about it. The smiling face icon is an indication of tongue in cheek.

I hope for something sophisticated like Crystal LED, nor am I so depressed by the OLED backplane news, given that engineers typically don't give up when a problem is encountered.

Still, a 100 inch 4K or 8K built on some LCD tech (what I jokingly referred to as medieval) might be a good transition into the future, and though I'm no great fan of LCD, improvements to the technology are occurring.

But the thrust of my question was whether Crystal LED would be affected by the difficulties with large backplane production...it was not an argument for large, low quality displays. cool.gif
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Old 12-18-2012, 12:46 PM
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Originally Posted by taichi4 View Post

Well, no reason to get so intense about it. The smiling face icon is an indication of tongue in cheek.

It looks as if the smiling face is for the word "medieval". That the 4K, etc., displays are attractive seemed sincere. Yes, I get a little too intense because in general the public is so unthinkingly pixel-drunk.

Quote:
I hope for something sophisticated like Crystal LED, nor am I so depressed by the OLED backplane news, given that engineers typically don't give up when a problem is encountered.
Still, a 100 inch 4K or 8K built on some LCD tech (what I jokingly referred to as medieval) might be a good transition into the future,

No, it's more than likely going to hamper the future, not (in my opinion) facilitate a transition to anything. If this increase in res goes outta control, then it makes the transfer to better display technologies all the harder.

Quote:
and though I'm no great fan of LCD, improvements to the technology are occurring.
But the thrust of my question was whether Crystal LED would be affected by the difficulties with large backplane production...it was not an argument for large, low quality displays. cool.gif

I've been wondering this too. Sony has been very tight-lipped about how these things are supposed to be made, so I don't know if anyone can tell for sure.

Java developers, when I saw what has been placed into Java 8 I was immediately reminded of how I've spent so much of my life trying to protect engineers from themselves. Lambda expressions are a horrible idea. Gentlemen: the goal isn't to make code readable for a competent mid-level engineer. The goal is to make code readable for a competent mid-level engineer exhausted and hopped up on caffeine at 3 am. What a disaster Java 8 is!
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Old 12-18-2012, 12:46 PM
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It pains me to say it but--I told you so!

What will be the procession of the last rites down the downward spiral of gloom to sub Wal-mart quality LCD?

LG, Samsung, and Panasonic Plasma, and Sharp elite LCD.

What will be the order of the DEATHS?

If Sony also DIES--what would be the least AWFUL LCD left on planet Earth?!

If whatever displays you now currently have one day simply die and ALL that would be left would be LCD that SUX--would you break down crying into a black cave and try PROJECTION?

Never has video quality in he future looked bleaker than it does now!
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Old 12-18-2012, 12:53 PM
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Originally Posted by Artwood View Post

It pains me to say it but--I told you so!

No it doesn't. smile.gif LOL, J/K, J/K. It's your right too. Along with Rogo's for sure.

Quote:
What will be the procession of the last rites down the downward spiral of gloom to sub Wal-mart quality LCD?
LG, Samsung, and Panasonic Plasma, and Sharp elite LCD.
What will be the order of the DEATHS?
If Sony also DIES--what would be the least AWFUL LCD left on planet Earth?!
If whatever displays you now currently have one day simply die and ALL that would be left would be LCD that SUX--would you break down crying into a black cave and try PROJECTION?
Never has video quality in he future looked bleaker than it does now!

It's just not that bad. (Author looks for Kool-Aid...)

Java developers, when I saw what has been placed into Java 8 I was immediately reminded of how I've spent so much of my life trying to protect engineers from themselves. Lambda expressions are a horrible idea. Gentlemen: the goal isn't to make code readable for a competent mid-level engineer. The goal is to make code readable for a competent mid-level engineer exhausted and hopped up on caffeine at 3 am. What a disaster Java 8 is!
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Old 12-18-2012, 01:01 PM
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Originally Posted by tgm1024 View Post

It looks as if the smiling face is for the word "medieval"...
...I've been wondering this too. Sony has been very tight-lipped about how these things are supposed to be made, so I don't know if anyone can tell for sure.

No...that was a wide dispersion smiling face, broadly applicable, and good even off axis.

Sony Crystal LED is the tech that interests me the most, and I'd love to see a large panel version of that.
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Old 12-18-2012, 01:06 PM
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Is Sony Crystal LED just LCD with sparkles on the bezel?
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Old 12-18-2012, 01:06 PM
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Try looking at the graphic at the bottom of that page before you post doom and gloom please?

buytme
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Old 12-18-2012, 01:40 PM - Thread Starter
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Try looking at the graphic at the bottom of that page before you post doom and gloom please?

Don't shoot the messenger. I was hoping LG and Samsung would figure out where Sony had failed and be finally able to release affordable OLED sets. If the reports are correct and they really are throwing away almost 75% of the panels, there is no way that is going to happen any time soon. Plus it is now beginning reported that the larger size are having reduced panel life. With the market heading into the the large format area of 4K 60"-110" displays, it does not bode well.
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Old 12-18-2012, 02:04 PM
 
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Eh, I have doubts the market will support more than a few measly percentage points for sets exceeding 70" (I think that percentage is currently under 1%).
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Old 12-18-2012, 02:14 PM
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I nominate Rogo for the "I told you so" of the year award! wink.gif
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Old 12-18-2012, 02:17 PM - Thread Starter
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Eh, I have doubts the market will support more than a few measly percentage points for sets exceeding 70" (I think that percentage is currently under 1%).

But isn't that percentage more a function of pricing than actual demand? I mean before the direct view large format Sharp's last year, 60" and above sets were extremely expensive. Now we have 60" Sharp and Vizio retailing under $1K and by late next year probably $1500 70" and $3000 80" sets. If I remember correctly, the large format segment is the only segment that is actually adding sales volume.
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Old 12-18-2012, 02:45 PM
 
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I suppose we shall see...because aesthetics start to become a concern at these sizes. If the price is low enough, I'm sure it will win over aesthetics in more scenarios.
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Old 12-18-2012, 02:48 PM
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Originally Posted by sytech View Post

But isn't that percentage more a function of pricing than actual demand? I mean before the direct view large format Sharp's last year, 60" and above sets were extremely expensive. Now we have 60" Sharp and Vizio retailing under $1K and by late next year probably $1500 70" and $3000 80" sets. If I remember correctly, the large format segment is the only segment that is actually adding sales volume.

It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

Even at reduced pricing, how many people have the room for a 70" or larger panel?

What about the logistics of transportation, delivery & installation? (Will it fit through the door? Up - or down - the stairs?)

Then we have reports that some of the very large LCDs cannot hold PQ across their width, even for a viewer sitting at center-screen, and at the current Average Viewing Distance.

..........

Given the (past & current) low sales percentage of 60" and Up Panels, and the (past) virtual absence of panels above 65" (discounting DLPs), the Large Format Segment almost HAS to be adding sales volume.
But if we are talking 0.05% to 1% (numbers pulled out of the air....), that is still not a significant market force, even if it represents a "100% Sales Increase!"

Last related news recall hearing was that Sub-50" panels were by far the largest selling market segment - - ???
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Old 12-18-2012, 02:56 PM
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Wait a minute. In that article, where is that guy getting his information? Every datum he throws out is completely unattributed. There been a series of press releases under the radar?

Java developers, when I saw what has been placed into Java 8 I was immediately reminded of how I've spent so much of my life trying to protect engineers from themselves. Lambda expressions are a horrible idea. Gentlemen: the goal isn't to make code readable for a competent mid-level engineer. The goal is to make code readable for a competent mid-level engineer exhausted and hopped up on caffeine at 3 am. What a disaster Java 8 is!
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Old 12-18-2012, 02:57 PM
 
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Originally Posted by Dierkdr View Post

It will be interesting to see how this plays out.
Even at reduced pricing, how many people have the room for a 70" or larger panel?
What about the logistics of transportation, delivery & installation? (Will it fit through the door? Up - or down - the stairs?)
Then we have reports that some of the very large LCDs cannot hold PQ across their width, even for a viewer sitting at center-screen, and at the current Average Viewing Distance.
..........
Given the (past & current) low sales percentage of 60" and Up Panels, and the (past) virtual absence of panels above 65" (discounting DLPs), the Large Format Segment almost HAS to be adding sales volume.
But if we are talking 0.05% to 1% (numbers pulled out of the air....), that is still not a significant market force, even if it represents a "100% Sales Increase!"
Last related news recall hearing was that Sub-50" panels were by far the largest selling market segment - - ???
Well said (beyond the aesthetics concerns).
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Originally Posted by David_B View Post

Try looking at the graphic at the bottom of that page before you post doom and gloom please?
Try being less cryptic please. What makes this article less reliable than the one you're currently parroting about Panasonic? Just imagine how bad off we are (cue Artwood!) if they're BOTH true and coming to fruition. wink.gif
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Old 12-18-2012, 03:40 PM
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well if this article is accurate, oled isn't dead yet, just in very serious condition.

next year should tell whether sammy of lg are able to address these issues.
so there remains some hope.

but if oled doesn't pan out and my only choice for a new set is a 2k or 4k lcd, well
i might just be buying a panny plasma next year even though i don't currently need a set.

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Old 12-18-2012, 04:32 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grubert View Post

"OLED bites the dust"
"SED all over again"
"Resolution beats quality again"
"Buy a plasma NOW"
"I told you so" wink.gif

They're all good.. I think you correctly surmised where I was going.
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Originally Posted by markrubin View Post

what a shock...and no one saw this coming....

[ sarc]
Absolutely none of us saw this coming.
[ /sarc]
Quote:
Originally Posted by tgm1024 View Post

I don't find a huge, *ANY* resolution panel using medieval technology attractive.
Simile: This is like people who run to ever increasing mega-pixels as a determinant in buying a camera. You can have a 26 MP camera, and if the image quality is terrible, you'll have 26 million fuzzy or otherwise crappy pixels.
So no, I'm not in your camp at all.

I used to hang with Laneclot. He had a pretty good LCD until the slaves stopped twisting the crystals.... Anyway, on a serious night, while resolution and megapixels on camera are not in fact the best determinant of quality (I too have beaten that drum for a decade), the good news is that high resolution cameras are rarely awful. I suspect most of the 4K displays are also going to be very good displays.
Quote:
Originally Posted by tgm1024 View Post

No it doesn't. smile.gif LOL, J/K, J/K. It's your right too. Along with Rogo's for sure.
It's just not that bad. (Author looks for Kool-Aid...)

I'm actually not even remotely happy about this news. If anyone thinks I am, they don't know me at all.
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Originally Posted by mr. wally View Post

well if this article is accurate, oled isn't dead yet, just in very serious condition.
next year should tell whether sammy of lg are able to address these issues.
so there remains some hope.
but if oled doesn't pan out and my only choice for a new set is a 2k or 4k lcd, well
i might just be buying a panny plasma next year even though i don't currently need a set.

I don't think OLED is dead by any means. There was a moment in the LCD TV birthing phase where the sputtering operation for the LC material was taking far, far too long. It was a dealbreaker and without a solution, LCD TVs were never going to be affordably manufactured. This came after LCD monitors were already catching on; the problem was unique to larger LCDs. Then someone figured it out and within a year, the revolution was underway.

The OLED problems might be more intractable or somewhat less so. Either way, it will take years before the TVs are affordable. But I'm still of the belief the problems will be solved.

Oh, and one more thing... If we're to believe DisplaySearch there, the only 2K OLED TVs ever will be these early sets. The rest will be 4K -- something many of us said (myself included) should have been part and parcel of the switch to OLED. If you buy one in the next year, you're really buying early-adopter tech: pay more to get less. And it's a lot more for a lot less.

There is no difference in HDMI cables. If you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working. (Oh, and plasma didn't die because of logistics problems, nor does OLED ship in big boxes because it comes from Korea.)
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Old 12-18-2012, 05:07 PM
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Originally Posted by rogo View Post

They're all good.. I think you correctly surmised where I was going.
[ sarc]
Absolutely none of us saw this coming.
[ /sarc]
I used to hang with Laneclot. He had a pretty good LCD until the slaves stopped twisting the crystals.... Anyway, on a serious night, while resolution and megapixels on camera are not in fact the best determinant of quality (I too have beaten that drum for a decade), the good news is that high resolution cameras are rarely awful. I suspect most of the 4K displays are also going to be very good displays.
I'm actually not even remotely happy about this news. If anyone thinks I am, they don't know me at all.
I don't think OLED is dead by any means. There was a moment in the LCD TV birthing phase where the sputtering operation for the LC material was taking far, far too long. It was a dealbreaker and without a solution, LCD TVs were never going to be affordably manufactured. This came after LCD monitors were already catching on; the problem was unique to larger LCDs. Then someone figured it out and within a year, the revolution was underway.
The OLED problems might be more intractable or somewhat less so. Either way, it will take years before the TVs are affordable. But I'm still of the belief the problems will be solved.
Oh, and one more thing... If we're to believe DisplaySearch there, the only 2K OLED TVs ever will be these early sets. The rest will be 4K -- something many of us said (myself included) should have been part and parcel of the switch to OLED. If you buy one in the next year, you're really buying early-adopter tech: pay more to get less. And it's a lot more for a lot less.


i had a friend working for a local tech firm that has some businees with the display manufacturers, and i remember him telling me of problems producing large lcd displays.
at that time, not knowing better, i was bugging him about why there weren't any large panel lcd displays for home use.

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Old 12-18-2012, 05:31 PM
 
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I'm not too sussed that these 55" sets won't possess 4K resolution given the required distance to fully perceive the benefits (not to mention the absolute lack of content). Not a dealbreaker for me (the projected price on the other hand....).
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