Originally Posted by fafrd
There are another couple important differences between 'then' and now:
1/ HDTVs cost much more than 480p TVs, while 4K/UHD TVs cost essentially the same to make as 1080p/HDTVs, so the 'upgrade' cost is near zero this time around.
2/ LED/LCD has basically achieved the same economies of scale once enjoyed by only CRT, so while shifting from 480p to HDTV back then basically involved moving from a late-stage mature technology (CRT) to an early-stage immature technology (plasma or LCD), moving from HDTV to UHD essentially means getting each pixel/subpixel cut in quarters with no overall risk associated with less mature manufacturing.
And one important aspect of back then that is common with right now is that 'new' 4K/UHD TVs look better on the showroom floor than 'old' 1080p/HDTV. Last time around, the improvement in picture quality was sufficient to overcome the barriers of increased cost, while this time around, there is no real barrier of increased cost, so it's a done deal.
The train has left the station and I agree with Ken's comment - by this time next year, the only TVs promoting premium picture quality will be 4K. It doesn't matter how 'close' you need to sit to see the improvements from increased resolution.
1.whether they cost the same to make ..or not
its a moot point since you can't buy a 1080P midlevel( or lower) Tv for hundreds less than a UHD TV
BTW...I assume you are employed by one of the TV manufacturers to know that it doesn't cost more to manufacture a UHD Tv than a 1080P?
if so..your statement is still hard to believe. I cant imagine they have been able to recover their costs in R&D and new manufacturing of UHD over HD TV yet..or the savings from the economies of scale of producing a significant amount more of HD than UHD units
but do tell?
and remember...science could readily prove superiority oh HD over SD with 20/20 vision
This cant be done with any where near close to the parameters of HD vs UHD
2. Your point is somewhat invalid
as there was a significant market of projection TV's for several years that filled a price point void while the direct view TV's came down in price
SD OTA was also around for many years
3. You point of UHD looking "better" is not shared by all
read quotes from David Katzmier etc
There is an increased cost until the 3rd tier manufacturers start to crank out 4K TV's
When Walmart starts stocking the shelves with 4K Tv's that is when I think the mass market will have accepted this as something they actually want
The market for 4K Tv's right now..I would assume...is extremely small...until I see mass market acceptance
So...based on some of your comments you work for one of the TV manufacturers
will we see 4K at Walmart now?