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Old 11-30-2014, 05:57 PM
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.[/QUOTE]
Got this painfully to know since my wife started her love with the iPad mini Retina . Now I am finding her in the living room on the sofa recliner with iPad on her knees watching TV reruns. IN FRONT of our 65" Sony sadly dark screen! According to her the big TV does not feel sexy anymore while iPad mini TV is cute, personal, and PQ is excellent :eek.: The future is high-density displays but of personal size.[/QUOTE]

I have been telling people this for a couple of years now....they all look at me like i am an idiot.
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Old 11-30-2014, 08:10 PM
 
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Originally Posted by steve1971 View Post
Damn right rogo the math does speak for itself, loud and clear and something Sony continues to ignor while losing money. I dont want to see them quit the tv manufacturering buisness because I think they have made some of the finest tv's around but they keep putting all their eggs in one basket (4K) hoping things will change and guess what? It aint and they are continueing to lose money. Sony needs a complete overhaul from the top on down if it wants to save itself. New management, new everything. Will that happen? I doubt it.
Pioneer, Sharp, and Panasonic have all contributed TVs in the "finest" dept., but they have all taken tumbles as well. They also all manufacture(d) their own TVs, so unfortunately that's no guarantee of dominance or even sustenance.
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Old 11-30-2014, 08:33 PM
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Originally Posted by NODES View Post
Got this painfully to know since my wife started her love with the iPad mini Retina . Now I am finding her in the living room on the sofa recliner with iPad on her knees watching TV reruns. IN FRONT of our 65" Sony sadly dark screen! According to her the big TV does not feel sexy anymore while iPad mini TV is cute, personal, and PQ is excellent :eek.: The future is high-density displays but of personal size.

I have been telling people this for a couple of years now....they all look at me like i am an idiot.
Let's hope you're wrong. Here people were having nightmares thinking about an all LCD world and now we have to worry about watching movies on an 8" screen. That will be the end of this hobby.

Calling Art Wood.

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Old 12-01-2014, 04:50 AM
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It's certainly true that merely making panels doesn't guarantee profits. But outside of Vizio, which runs a very unique model that I'd argue (a) no one can replicate easily and (b) is very low profit anyway, you certainly can't be a volume TV maker while buying other people's panels either. No one has come close to thriving with that model. There isn't enough value to add to TVs. I suspect this is a lot of why you don't see an Apple-branded one yet (ever?).

As for the movement to tablet watching, it's very real and a huge part of why I've been bearish on bigger screens. Younger people are watching most of their video on 5-7" screens right now -- globally. Step up sizes for them are big iPads and laptops, not 60-inch TVs. This doesn't mean TVs are going away, but they seem destined to become like PCs: Something people replace when the time comes, but something with no apparent catalysts for growth, and arguably something that might be in a permanent, slow decline.
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There is no difference in HDMI cables. If you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working. (Oh, and plasma didn't die because of logistics problems, nor does OLED ship in big boxes because it comes from Korea.)
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Old 12-01-2014, 05:18 AM
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Mark, although I agree younger people are watching more video on small tablets, there is one factor that might change that. Marriage. What happens to their viewing habits once they're married and have kids? It wouldn't surprise me in the least if they then 'graduate' to a large screen TV, so that a family experience could be shared.

Just a thought.
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Old 12-01-2014, 05:41 PM
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Originally Posted by Ken Ross View Post
Mark, although I agree younger people are watching more video on small tablets, there is one factor that might change that. Marriage. What happens to their viewing habits once they're married and have kids? It wouldn't surprise me in the least if they then 'graduate' to a large screen TV, so that a family experience could be shared.

Just a thought.
That's a pretty good thought Ken. Taking it a step further, they will have become used to very very high qualty PQ while watching those tablets so hopefully they will be fairly demanding when it comes to TV PQ.
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Old 12-01-2014, 11:53 PM
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Originally Posted by Ken Ross View Post
Mark, although I agree younger people are watching more video on small tablets, there is one factor that might change that. Marriage. What happens to their viewing habits once they're married and have kids? It wouldn't surprise me in the least if they then 'graduate' to a large screen TV, so that a family experience could be shared.

Just a thought.
Ken, two pieces to this:

1) The only reason TV sales will continue to exist at all is that, yes, most families tend to keep a larger screen for family viewing. Whether that's a couple or the couple + kids, the idea of gathering around to watch a movie, the game, etc. means that some sort of larger screen is required. The fundamental change here is that a generation is growing up on smaller screens than ever. They associate video watching with small screens. The reflexive move to big screens that many of us took for granted is less automatic in younger demos.

2) I've now experienced more than few anecdotes in my world / through friends where "so-and-so sits on the couch watching the iPad, with the TV off". And so-and-so is often the wife, son, husband. The reality is that this behavior is happening, it allows for people to pick their own content, the UX of finding stuff is an order of magnitude better than most TVs/cable boxes/etc. These people might well agree with you and I that a big-screen experience is better. They also might simply not spend much time finding out. They just get used to watching small and they mostly watch small. That means fewer Black Fridays spent searching for a new big TV. Fewer upgrades. Etc. etc.

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That's a pretty good thought Ken. Taking it a step further, they will have become used to very very high qualty PQ while watching those tablets so hopefully they will be fairly demanding when it comes to TV PQ.
Don't bet on a return to quality. Sorry. I think the trends are for a very, very narrow demand for quality. In audio, the number of households with high-quality sound is vanishingly small -- low single digits (probably 1-2%). There was a Facebook post today by Robert Scoble about how much he loved the Pono audio player's sound and how much he realized it was hopeless to expect that quality on smartphones (cost and high-quality encodes). Most people will never hear a great digital sound stream through a great DAC.

Realistically, most people will never see a super-high quality video stream on a videophile-quality display in a mostly dark room either.

There is no difference in HDMI cables. If you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working. (Oh, and plasma didn't die because of logistics problems, nor does OLED ship in big boxes because it comes from Korea.)
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Old 12-02-2014, 07:11 AM
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Originally Posted by rogo View Post
Ken, two pieces to this:

1) The only reason TV sales will continue to exist at all is that, yes, most families tend to keep a larger screen for family viewing. Whether that's a couple or the couple + kids, the idea of gathering around to watch a movie, the game, etc. means that some sort of larger screen is required. The fundamental change here is that a generation is growing up on smaller screens than ever. They associate video watching with small screens. The reflexive move to big screens that many of us took for granted is less automatic in younger demos.

2) I've now experienced more than few anecdotes in my world / through friends where "so-and-so sits on the couch watching the iPad, with the TV off". And so-and-so is often the wife, son, husband. The reality is that this behavior is happening, it allows for people to pick their own content, the UX of finding stuff is an order of magnitude better than most TVs/cable boxes/etc. These people might well agree with you and I that a big-screen experience is better. They also might simply not spend much time finding out. They just get used to watching small and they mostly watch small. That means fewer Black Fridays spent searching for a new big TV. Fewer upgrades. Etc. etc.
I think the point is that the trend to small, personal viewing devices, will be tempered by the family structure. Yes, the small devices will still be there and yes, they will still be used in the same room as the large screen TV, but I still believe many/most of these soon-to-be families will buy the larger screen TVs.

With that said, I do agree that the market for the high quality large screen TVs will be very small. Your analogy to audio is very sound (pun intended). I see in my own area that people are buying sound bars almost exclusively, not high quality receivers. Hell, many just go with the TV's onboard audio. In fact, I may be the only one I know that actually still uses a receiver and a 5.1 speaker array. It's really kind of sad. The overwhelming majority of people seem to ascribe to the 'good enough' approach to these things.
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Old 12-02-2014, 08:00 AM
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From what I see and am told by customers today, the move away from stand alone receiver driven sound systems to sound bars are two fold. "If I hang my TV where am I going to put all of my equipment" wired or wireless? Secondly, the quality sound being produced by the better sound bars is pretty impressive. Being prejudiced towards 5.1 systems for the last 20 years or so, I must admit that some of these sound bars provide an amazing sound field.
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Old 12-02-2014, 08:01 AM
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I think the point is that the trend to small, personal viewing devices, will be tempered by the family structure. Yes, the small devices will still be there and yes, they will still be used in the same room as the large screen TV, but I still believe many/most of these soon-to-be families will buy the larger screen TVs.

With that said, I do agree that the market for the high quality large screen TVs will be very small. Your analogy to audio is very sound (pun intended). I see in my own area that people are buying sound bars almost exclusively, not high quality receivers. Hell, many just go with the TV's onboard audio. In fact, I may be the only one I know that actually still uses a receiver and a 5.1 speaker array. It's really kind of sad. The overwhelming majority of people seem to ascribe to the 'good enough' approach to these things.
Unless we have holographic tvs, everyone would want to have one.
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Old 12-02-2014, 08:52 AM
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From what I see and am told by customers today, the move away from stand alone receiver driven sound systems to sound bars are two fold. "If I hang my TV where am I going to put all of my equipment" wired or wireless? Secondly, the quality sound being produced by the better sound bars is pretty impressive. Being prejudiced towards 5.1 systems for the last 20 years or so, I must admit that some of these sound bars provide an amazing sound field.
Andy, I just recently heard a Sonos system that a friend bought. I don't recall all the components, but I know he paid about $2,000. To be honest, it sounded good, but I felt that any midrange 5.1 system could easily beat it.

The only reason he didn't go with a standard receiver/5.1 system, was...you guessed it, his wife. The standard fare got a very low WAF, but the Sonos system got high marks from her.
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Old 12-02-2014, 09:09 AM
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Andy, I just recently heard a Sonos system that a friend bought. I don't recall all the components, but I know he paid about $2,000. To be honest, it sounded good, but I felt that any midrange 5.1 system could easily beat it.

The only reason he didn't go with a standard receiver/5.1 system, was...you guessed it, his wife. The standard fare got a very low WAF, but the Sonos system got high marks from her.
Ahh! The WAF. Now there is a force of nature that cannot be over emphasized. On a second note. Your 5.1 system as well as most 5.1/7.1 systems here at AVS most likely would dominate the top 10% of soundbars. But compare a $500 soundbar to a $1,000 HTIB and the decesion becomes much harder. Throw in the WAF factor and the "till death do us part" comes in to play.
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Old 12-02-2014, 10:21 AM
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While I agree that younger adults prefer to use their tablets and phones over TVs as others have mentioned, I consistently see one big exception: when it's time for the big football game or any big sports event, the guys at least congregate to the big TVs. I believe that itself (sports) will trigger significant TV sales going forward. But what I see diminishing is the 2nd or 3rd TV in the bedroom, basement, or whatever. So while I see overall sales numbers diminishing, I don't see large TV sales dropping significantly other than for reasons of market saturation.
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Old 12-05-2014, 04:28 AM
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So, again, Rich/Ken, I don't see big-screen sales drying up to zero. Instead, it seems like we are sort of hitting what we've seen in PCs. They are in most places they will be. With retirement/death/downsizing offset by family growth, there is a reasonable likelihood of sales continuing to exist at something near current levels for years to come.

That said, a generation is growing up with video as a different experience much as the previous one had with audio. It does feel like those extra-room TVs are almost purposeless. I see the iPad as the near perfect bedroom TV: there when you want it, gone when you don't. Of course, any room where TV is watched all the time as a dedicated activity is a pretty reasonable home for a TV. But it seems like most of those TVs will be replaced every 7-10 years, when they were out -- not sooner.

For a long time, the TV business could rely on a very large volume of purchasing due to HD replacement, growth into other spaces, emerging markets, etc. We're moving into another phase where tablet-as-TV and a lack of compelling (any?) reasons to upgrade are pushing cycles out and dampening hopes of market growth. If / when markets start to shrink, the resources that support the high end get a bit smaller with them. We just have to hope they aren't too small.

The good news is that in audio they haven't been. But audio manufacturing doesn't have the same kinds of scale requirements as display.

There is no difference in HDMI cables. If you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working. (Oh, and plasma didn't die because of logistics problems, nor does OLED ship in big boxes because it comes from Korea.)
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Old 12-05-2014, 05:29 AM
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They are just simplifying. Sony has too many skus and they put too much effort into dumb things like speakers on the high end. I hope they come out with just a few models featuring Android TV and no speakers next year.

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Old 12-07-2014, 12:11 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo View Post
Ken, two pieces to this:

1) The only reason TV sales will continue to exist at all is that, yes, most families tend to keep a larger screen for family viewing. Whether that's a couple or the couple + kids, the idea of gathering around to watch a movie, the game, etc. means that some sort of larger screen is required. The fundamental change here is that a generation is growing up on smaller screens than ever. They associate video watching with small screens. The reflexive move to big screens that many of us took for granted is less automatic in younger demos.

2) I've now experienced more than few anecdotes in my world / through friends where "so-and-so sits on the couch watching the iPad, with the TV off". And so-and-so is often the wife, son, husband. The reality is that this behavior is happening, it allows for people to pick their own content, the UX of finding stuff is an order of magnitude better than most TVs/cable boxes/etc. These people might well agree with you and I that a big-screen experience is better. They also might simply not spend much time finding out. They just get used to watching small and they mostly watch small. That means fewer Black Fridays spent searching for a new big TV. Fewer upgrades. Etc. etc.
Great post as usual, rogo. Until I got to this part and cringed a little...

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......... There was a Facebook post today by Robert Scoble about how much he loved the Pono audio player's sound and how much he realized it was hopeless to expect that quality on smartphones (cost and high-quality encodes). Most people will never hear a great digital sound stream through a great DAC.
*snicker*

Another expectation bias victim. Either that or there was something else wrong with his setup. Nothing to do with Pono really, which is a smoke 'n mirrors playback device, playing into the conceits of delusional audiophiles. Great DAC performance can be had for very cheap and that's been the case for quite a while now. Heck, the iphone 6 has outstanding measured audio performance which equals and often surpasses boutique audio DACs costing multi-hundreds or thousands of dollars.

I strongly suspect the quality of the source material (mix and/or mastering) used for comparison between his iPhone 6 Spotify streaming at "best quality" vs. the content played via Pono player was the true cause for audible difference here, with at least a smidgeon of expectation bias thrown in to seal the deal. Little to do with the Pono player itself or the (on paper only) better technical specification of hi-res music files, if those are what were used for playback comparison in the Pono.

Scroble seems caught up in the same realm of folks who also insist their premium hdmi cable gives them truer colors, a clearer picture and better sound. "But.. but.. it's 'night and day' better!", "even my wife can tell and she doesn't even care about these things!", etc.
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Old 12-07-2014, 04:56 PM
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I'm of course now one of the old fogies who bemoans the trend toward tiny-screen viewing. Which doesn't mean it's not a clear-as-day trend of course. It reminds me that, when I decided to do a projection-based set up and spent a lot of time in the dedicated home theater building forum, it was right when the trend toward smaller screen viewing was becoming more clear. But you still had lots of guys designing their home theater with lots of additional theater seating with the expectation that they would fill those seats with eager guests wanting to enjoy content on the bigger screen. While that was the case for some, others found out that this was rarely the case. Threads come up now and again where you see that these dedicated home theaters are often only used by one or two people in the family, usually the person who built it, because frankly their friends are happy enough watching their TV shows etc at their own place, in ultimate convenience, on much smaller screens.

That's one reason why I didn't go the dedicated purpose-built room route, and while I put in a large enough sofa to accomidate as many as I could, and as much as I enjoy watching with company, the room simply had to satisfy my own viewing desires.

My wife cares nothing about video size or quality. My sons, 13 and 16, appreciate the big screen quite a bit, but do most of their viewing on smaller screens, iPad/laptops etc. Same as their friends.

The one thing that HAS surprised me in this context of the new generation acclimating to small screens, is the actual enthusiasm shown among my son's friends for watching content at our house on the big screen. My 13 year old's pals are always organizing themselves to watch Star Trek movie etc on the big screen and my 16 year old's friends insist on coming here to watch both movies and, more fervently, sports, despite that they all have screens to watch on at home. I frankly would have figured they wouldn't care, but they still seem to get something out of the bigger screen experience.

And, heck, people are still going to movie theaters amazingly enough.

But back to the tablet/laptop viewing phenomena, I can see it as the ultimate WAF. When I met her, my wife's idea of the perfect TV was, like, a 13 inch set, mostly hidden behind the potted plant in the corner of the room. Flat screens were a great help in making it more acceptable to have the TV in view, but with tablets you don't even have to set a TV up anymore, don't even have to deal with how to decorate around it. You can just use a tablet and put it down or away, out of site, with no impact to the decor.
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Old 12-07-2014, 04:59 PM
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Hmm
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Old 12-07-2014, 11:15 PM
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Great post as usual, rogo. Until I got to this part and cringed a little...
Thanks
Quote:
Another expectation bias victim. Either that or there was something else wrong with his setup. Nothing to do with Pono really, which is a smoke 'n mirrors playback device, playing into the conceits of delusional audiophiles. Great DAC performance can be had for very cheap and that's been the case for quite a while now. Heck, the iphone 6 has outstanding measured audio performance which equals and often surpasses boutique audio DACs costing multi-hundreds or thousands of dollars.

I strongly suspect the quality of the source material (mix and/or mastering) used for comparison between his iPhone 6 Spotify streaming at "best quality" vs. the content played via Pono player was the true cause for audible difference here, with at least a smidgeon of expectation bias thrown in to seal the deal. Little to do with the Pono player itself or the (on paper only) better technical specification of hi-res music files, if those are what were used for playback comparison in the Pono.

Scroble seems caught up in the same realm of folks who also insist their premium hdmi cable gives them truer colors, a clearer picture and better sound. "But.. but.. it's 'night and day' better!", "even my wife can tell and she doesn't even care about these things!", etc.
So you may be right here. I'm no DAC expert and I've never heard a Pono. Allow me some artistic license in using the anecdote?

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I'm of course now one of the old fogies who bemoans the trend toward tiny-screen viewing. Which doesn't mean it's not a clear-as-day trend of course. It reminds me that, when I decided to do a projection-based set up and spent a lot of time in the dedicated home theater building forum, it was right when the trend toward smaller screen viewing was becoming more clear. But you still had lots of guys designing their home theater with lots of additional theater seating with the expectation that they would fill those seats with eager guests wanting to enjoy content on the bigger screen. While that was the case for some, others found out that this was rarely the case. Threads come up now and again where you see that these dedicated home theaters are often only used by one or two people in the family, usually the person who built it, because frankly their friends are happy enough watching their TV shows etc at their own place, in ultimate convenience, on much smaller screens.
I've seen the same thing over and over.
Quote:
That's one reason why I didn't go the dedicated purpose-built room route, and while I put in a large enough sofa to accomidate as many as I could, and as much as I enjoy watching with company, the room simply had to satisfy my own viewing desires.

My wife cares nothing about video size or quality. My sons, 13 and 16, appreciate the big screen quite a bit, but do most of their viewing on smaller screens, iPad/laptops etc. Same as their friends.
That's a good way of putting it. The fundamental difference I believe is this: You and I grew up with one way to watch. Period. Your kids and that whole generation has grown up with another way to watch. That other way is better in almost every regard save screen size and video quality (in some setups). It's instant gratification, it's touch-and-view, it's personal, etc. etc.

So people who grow up that way and experience video that way may well enjoy bigger screens, but it seems improbable they'll ever crave them the way our generation has. That doesn't mean no one will, it just means it's likely to be a low-dollar purchase for most, and not an aspirational one.
Quote:
The one thing that HAS surprised me in this context of the new generation acclimating to small screens, is the actual enthusiasm shown among my son's friends for watching content at our house on the big screen. My 13 year old's pals are always organizing themselves to watch Star Trek movie etc on the big screen and my 16 year old's friends insist on coming here to watch both movies and, more fervently, sports, despite that they all have screens to watch on at home. I frankly would have figured they wouldn't care, but they still seem to get something out of the bigger screen experience.
\

Well, I mean it's better in the ways it's better, right? So is a BMW vs. a Prius.
Quote:
And, heck, people are still going to movie theaters amazingly enough.
Yes, but the total audience shrinks slowly... The remaining "goers" are asked to pay a bit more... There's no discernible growth in moviegoing. That's not a good analogue for big-screen home video.
Quote:
But back to the tablet/laptop viewing phenomena, I can see it as the ultimate WAF. When I met her, my wife's idea of the perfect TV was, like, a 13 inch set, mostly hidden behind the potted plant in the corner of the room. Flat screens were a great help in making it more acceptable to have the TV in view, but with tablets you don't even have to set a TV up anymore, don't even have to deal with how to decorate around it. You can just use a tablet and put it down or away, out of site, with no impact to the decor.
Yep. And I kind of wonder what happens when Oculus-type devices let you have a "man cave" that can also disappear out of sight. Is the typical wife going to acquiesce to a giant video screen? Or will she tell you to "go buy one of those" instead?

There is no difference in HDMI cables. If you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working. (Oh, and plasma didn't die because of logistics problems, nor does OLED ship in big boxes because it comes from Korea.)
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