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Join Date: Dec 1999
Location: Stop making curved screens
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So, when I went on record as proclaiming with certainty that LCD would dominate the display industry in 2020, that was met mostly with derision.
Now, we have DisplaySearch suggesting that by 2020, even smartphones will be mostly LCD and only minority (30%) OLED at decade's end.
Tablets are certainly going to be lower, it seems (10-20%?). Notebooks lower still (0-10%?). TVs optimistically are headed for about 10%, 20% if everything magically falls into place.
Add 5 years to that and things can certainly change. The economics of LTPS are suboptimal, though by then Oxide/IGZO might have solved all its problems and matched enough of the performance of LTPS to get where it needs to be. Of course, whatever backplane is cheapest benefits OLED, too.
Where OLED really shines is on power, which seemingly matters most in mobile phones, though. Tablets already have pretty good battery life (they work all day) and notebooks too (mine can run 14-16 hours often). And the leading industry watcher no longer sees OLED taking over the phone business. Of course, if LEDs improve, power improves on LCDs.
I don't think OLED has much chance of going away as things are currently constituted. But if "printable" OLED doesn't become real by decade's end, perhaps by 2025 the industry will have grown bored with it and moved on to something else. Manufacturers are ridiculously good at making TFT-LCDs. And TFT-LCDs are ridiculously good at most of the display characteristics people care about. Yes, contrast and viewing angles are not easy to combine (VA vs. IPS). Yes, mura / uniformity remains a perpetual issue. But time may fix these and if LCD gets seen as inevitable, fixing them gets more interesting.
So I dunno.... But I wouldn't necessarily get all pessimistic just yet.
There's a saying about "everything in moderation". If only it was applied to well, you know...