Predict all the companies that will be out of the TV business in the next 5 years - AVS Forum
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post #1 of 190 Old 02-08-2014, 03:23 AM - Thread Starter
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With many Japanese companies heading towards the exits--who will be the main NON Chinese competitors in the Flat Panel business 5 years from now--any speculations welcome.
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post #2 of 190 Old 02-08-2014, 03:59 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Artwood View Post

With many Japanese companies heading towards the exits--who will be the main NON Chinese competitors in the Flat Panel business 5 years from now--any speculations welcome.
Isn't the first post asking the opposite of the thread title? The thread title asks to predict the companies that will be out of business and the first post asks for the companies that will be in business.
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post #3 of 190 Old 02-08-2014, 07:06 AM - Thread Starter
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Maybe we have people here that have the capability to answer both questions?

I'm ignorant--I don't know who is Japanese--who is Korean and who the big Chinese Flat panel producers are.

Maybe someone could enlighten me?
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post #4 of 190 Old 02-08-2014, 07:18 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Artwood 
With many Japanese companies heading towards the exits
The japanese are not out of the game ...yet.

a thread about that
http://www.avsforum.com/t/1422916/sony-panasonic-and-sharp-tv-divisions-melting-down-in-summer-2012-heat
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Originally Posted by Artwood 
who will be the main NON Chinese competitors in the Flat Panel business 5 years from now--any speculations welcome.
that is a bit of a silly question smile.gif -> Samsung, LG <-
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post #5 of 190 Old 02-09-2014, 11:00 AM
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Japan is almost out of the CE industry.

Anyone that thinks that's not happening and won't continue just needs to look at who the CE big dog was before Japan took over.

History repeats over and over, those that don't change with it are doomed.

buytme
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post #6 of 190 Old 02-11-2014, 03:00 AM - Thread Starter
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Are the new sacred cows Samsung and LG?

Have they learned anything from the Japanese companies to avoid their fate against the Chinese?
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post #7 of 190 Old 02-11-2014, 05:47 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Artwood View Post

Are the new sacred cows Samsung and LG?

Have they learned anything from the Japanese companies to avoid their fate against the Chinese?

Japan had a pretty long CE run. About 40 years.

It will be interesting to see if South Korea can last that long too.

One thing to look at is average age of a population.

Japan's his horrible, so it's not surprising the 20 plus younger South Korea is taking it's place.

China's problem is the communists running it.

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post #8 of 190 Old 02-12-2014, 03:24 AM
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Originally Posted by David_B View Post

Japan had a pretty long CE run. About 40 years.It will be interesting to see if South Korea can last that long too.One thing to look at is average age of a population.Japan's his horrible, so it's not surprising the 20 plus younger South Korea is taking it's place. China's problem is the communists running it.

Something to add here from broader perspective would be that Japan has reached its maximal population density so reducing the population will be beneficial in long term. If you say Chin's problem is the communists this is not true judging from the economic progress they made.Hard to imagine progress could be better. Population-wise comparable country is India, which while being non-communist and democratic is sliding behind China, what is their problem?
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post #9 of 190 Old 02-12-2014, 08:03 AM
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Originally Posted by irkuck View Post

"Something to add here from broader perspective would be that Japan has reached its maximal population density so reducing the population will be beneficial in long term. If you say Chin's problem is the communists this is not true judging from the economic progress they made.Hard to imagine progress could be better. Population-wise comparable country is India, which while being non-communist and democratic is sliding behind China, what is their problem?"/
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To the question of this thread first...I'd throw Toshiba up there too. Too bad because I really like the picture quality of their 50"-65" panels. They're really my favorite in that genre.

To the highlighted question...India doesn't really have a Democracy. It never has. That's a big reason why Pakistan split away from it. It's a rigid, brutal, authoritarian hodgepodge of a political structure that is oligarchic, socialist, spoils, black market capitalism, rigid religious code and limited democracy. And all of the limitations revolve around its centuries old oppressive caste system. China had the Mao revolution that purged all of that kind of corrupt, ancient cultural rigidity out of the Chinese system. It's population is much easier to focus and control. India is the opposite. I spent a lot of time in both countries in the 1990's. Think herding to understand them. China's system is like herding cows. Socialism and very limited capitalism works perfectly for them because Communism is their religion. And it is much easier to mobilize that huge population behind its communal tenets. India is like herding a mixture of horses. Thoroughbreds up front with no dissent...Lippizans next with no dissent...Clydesdales in the middle...and that is the 5% of the herd. 95% of the population of the herd are mules and donkeys...with no dissent and very little voice about what governs the herd. In the Chinese herd there is at least minimum expectation that basic rights and provisions will be handled equitably by its politboro. In India there is none. Neither of those cultures remotely resemble a "Democracy". Especially by American standards.

So the answer is they don't have a problem. We have the problem based on how we interpret their system and culture. The interaction between Chinese and Indian dynasties is a fascinating study. And much too lengthy and off topic for this thread or forum. Suffice it to say...India will never be a real threat to China's or the Asian empire's economic might. It will always be a drag on it. As its historic role suggests.
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post #10 of 190 Old 02-12-2014, 09:12 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by irkuck 

Something to add here from broader perspective would be that Japan has reached its maximal population density so reducing the population will be beneficial in long term. If you say Chin's problem is the communists this is not true judging from the economic progress they made.Hard to imagine progress could be better. Population-wise comparable country is India, which while being non-communist and democratic is sliding behind China, what is their problem?

China is going downhill..
http://www.forbes.com/sites/stratfor/2013/07/23/the-end-of-the-chinese-economic-miracle/

CREATOR: gd-jpeg v1.0 (using IJG JPEG v62), quality = 75
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post #11 of 190 Old 02-12-2014, 09:44 AM
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LG and Samsung will be around for at least another 10 years.

I doubt Japan will abandon the CE industry completely. They still make receivers, Blu-ray players, camera's etc... .

China's biggest potential obstacle is corruption. Everyone is trying to steal what they can while they can and get out of the country.

I wouldn't be surprised to see US companies make some sort of comeback. Apple, Google, Microsoft, etc.. may decide to make monitors. In a few years, production may become almost fully automated so you make them close to your consumer base and/or where electricity is cheapest. Kind of like what happened in the car industry.
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post #12 of 190 Old 02-14-2014, 11:11 AM - Thread Starter
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I am for anything in the imagination of anyone on Planet Earth that will stop LCD!

LCD Borg: I will Resist and I will not be Assimilated!
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post #13 of 190 Old 02-14-2014, 08:45 PM
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Originally Posted by fritzi93 View Post

Not to go too far OT, but without subsidies, how viable is solar really?
This is why we so urgently need Dolby Vision. When we have enough TVs with it, we simply put solar panels in front of every TV, and the system will become self-sustaining.
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post #14 of 190 Old 02-15-2014, 01:45 AM - Thread Starter
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No what we need is to stop New World Order Fascist LCDs even if it takes abandoning market principals and subsidizing OLED!

Get that?! Do you understand what I'm talkin' about?

This country was founded on ideals--not on LCD monopolies.

Give the American people a get out of LCD Jail Card!

United huddled masses--Let the Rivers Run--send LCD down the toilet once and for all!

This announcement paid for by the Committee to Elect ANYONE that hates New World Order LCDs.
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post #15 of 190 Old 02-16-2014, 07:23 PM
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Originally Posted by fritzi93 View Post

Not to go too far OT, but without subsidies, how viable is solar really? I mean generation by panels on peoples' rooftops. Sure, it's useful in many situations where you're off the grid.

So let me go off topic for a second... Solar "grid parity" has been reached in many places already... What that means is that "the total cost of making power from solar is comparable to the cost of power from the grid."

Here's a cool chart:



That's for Europe.

Here's another that doesn't really reflect the state of things (they're better because costs have fallen more), but shows how much of the world will be there by 2020:



And here's a third one:




Most solar panels made today pay for the energy it costs to make them in <18 months and last 20+ years. We put a system up 8 years ago. It has generated enough power that the value of the power alone is equal to more than 1/2 the system cost already (it's probably close to 3/4, I haven't computed it lately). The system is expected to last for 25 years or so. The cost of power has historically gone in exactly one direction. I have -- in the past -- estimated it's like getting 7-8% on my money, tax free, every year -- without risk. I'd call that viable.

There is no difference in HDMI cables. If you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working. (Oh, and plasma didn't die because of logistics problems, nor does OLED ship in big boxes because it comes from Korea.)
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post #16 of 190 Old 02-16-2014, 08:04 PM
 
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The cost per watt has indeed dropped. It's partly what spurred me to jump in headfirst last year. The grid still needs redundancy when the sun is down (especially if electric cars ever hope to make real traction), though (natural gas seems to be helping the coal offset, for now). Wind isn't going to cut it.
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post #17 of 190 Old 02-16-2014, 10:00 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 8mile13 View Post

The japanese are not out of the game ...yet.

a thread about that
http://www.avsforum.com/t/1422916/sony-panasonic-and-sharp-tv-divisions-melting-down-in-summer-2012-heat
that is a bit of a silly question smile.gif -> Samsung, LG <-
No not ignore a company like Vizio. They can buy components from anybody and assemble an unlimited range of quality. Cheap, you bet. But they also have the components available to out Elite the Elite. No manufacture stopped building full dimming because they thought it was inferior, just that it was not cost effective. If Vizio brings it back and does it well they will find plenty of buyers.
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post #18 of 190 Old 02-16-2014, 10:30 PM - Thread Starter
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I'm not one of those green wackos but I think Rogo is right about the Solar thing. Solar should be used throughout the whole world. It makes perfect sense to me but I think it works best if you couple it with windmill power.
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post #19 of 190 Old 02-16-2014, 11:06 PM
 
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You didn't get any disagreement from me on how far solar has come. Wind power efficacy, on the other hand, is a much tougher nut to crack. It makes less economic sense if the wind in your region doesn't meet a high enough threshold:


The heartland (and WY and parts of NM and MT) are obviously the most productive spots. You could be throwing a lot of money for little gain most other places.
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post #20 of 190 Old 02-17-2014, 01:53 AM
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We're really off topic.. but the key with wind is this... it works pretty well (a) when the sun is down in a lot of places (b) well collectively.... when it's not blowing here, it's probably blowing there, where there is not necessarily too far away.

As a result, wind in aggregate can make for a nice power complement to sun, natural gas, nuclear, whatever. It also means you shouldn't build wind where it doesn't blow well at all and you shouldn't build too much wind total. We currently get about 3.5% of our power from wind and there's a good chance we could get that up to about 10-20% (depending on whether we can ever put any of it offshore and whether some states with good resources engage in smart or stupid policies toward it). But wind won't likely get much farther than that ever, whereas solar could get to half our energy needs within half a century -- or possibly less -- because it can be deployed in most of the country on homes, office parks, and at utility scale. And it pairs well with small-scale storage to smooth out the bumps in output.

If we can find a way to add a small amount of new nuclear, we can probably cut 80% of our carbon footprint before 2065 easily. If we can't, it might take somewhat longer, because it's a lot of solar panels.....

There is no difference in HDMI cables. If you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working. (Oh, and plasma didn't die because of logistics problems, nor does OLED ship in big boxes because it comes from Korea.)
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post #21 of 190 Old 02-17-2014, 06:42 AM
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Wow, look at the purple spot in Wyoming! It looks to run from Laramie through Medicine Bow to Shirley Basin. When I was at Univ of Wyo (Laramie) many years ago, I thought this must be the windiest place on the planet.

Locals used to say the four seasons were differentiated by what was blowing sideways: snow, rain, dust or aspen leaves (from the Snowy Mt Range 30 miles west). tongue.gif

It's the High Plains though, well over a mile elevation and the air is pretty thin. Dunno what that may imply for windmills, I think I read somewhere that there are some experimental turbines near Medicine Bow.
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post #22 of 190 Old 02-17-2014, 11:03 AM
 
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It's prime real estate for that sort of thing, surely enough. I don't think Artwood minds the diversion. Concerning nuclear, new plants built with the purpose of using thorium for fuel would be miles better in terms of safer alternatives to what is used so commonly in today's ancient reactors.
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post #23 of 190 Old 02-17-2014, 12:32 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vinnie97 View Post

It's prime real estate for that sort of thing, surely enough. I don't think Artwood minds the diversion. Concerning nuclear, new plants built with the purpose of using thorium for fuel would be miles better in terms of safer alternatives to what is used so commonly in today's ancient reactors.

You must read Karl Denninger. Be careful not to take him too seriously if you do read him. He's a classic example of the saying 'A little bit of knowledge can be very dangerous'. Not that he's not entertaining, but he has a tendency to think he knows a lot more about things than he really does. And if you question him in any way and make him look foolish, he'll ban you from his site. And what's really funny about that is he's the type to rail against people who do that sort of thing.
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post #24 of 190 Old 02-17-2014, 01:01 PM
 
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I suspect I might have inadvertently and not realized or forgotten about him, but I recognize the name (just checked his credentials for a refresher). I am sure he's dogmatic and that he doesn't take lightly to being challenged (or made to look foolish). I found this older article on thorium that he opined about: http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?singlepost=2491667 - is this what you were intimating or were you referring to him in more broad terms?
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post #25 of 190 Old 02-17-2014, 07:23 PM
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To be honest, thorium-based plants are a nice idea, but decades from commercialization. I'm not a huge nuclear fan, but realistically it has a pretty good safety record. And if we built Gen III designs today that are state of the art, we could move nuclear from it's current 18-19% of U.S. electricity use into the 25-30% range with handfuls of plants located relatively far from densely populated areas. In the meantime, we research Gen IV designs (incl. thorium-based stuff) that comes on line around 2030-2040 and replaces the old stuff from the 1970s when it does. That addresses most of the safety/waste/proliferation concerns with nuclear and provides "baseload" carbon-free power for the next several centuries (there's lots of thorium, the uranium-based stuff helps make its own fuel, et al.). Add in the right combo of wind + solar + hydro and you can easily imagine mankind being out of the carbon business.

We can't know how valuable that is, but we can be confident it won't hurt. And given the predictability of the cost of all those energy resources once they are in place, it's incredibly valuable as energy prices stop rising... Not to mention what might happen to the oceans.

There is no difference in HDMI cables. If you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working. (Oh, and plasma didn't die because of logistics problems, nor does OLED ship in big boxes because it comes from Korea.)
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post #26 of 190 Old 02-18-2014, 01:00 AM - Thread Starter
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Could nuclear powered TVs defeat LCD?

How many companies will be put out of the TV business by the Chinese?
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post #27 of 190 Old 02-18-2014, 10:27 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vinnie97 View Post

I suspect I might have inadvertently and not realized or forgotten about him, but I recognize the name (just checked his credentials for a refresher). I am sure he's dogmatic and that he doesn't take lightly to being challenged (or made to look foolish). I found this older article on thorium that he opined about: http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?singlepost=2491667 - is this what you were intimating or were you referring to him in more broad terms?

I was just wondering because everything you espouse regarding energy and Obama, he does to.
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post #28 of 190 Old 02-18-2014, 11:53 AM
 
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Well, I think that is more indicative of the fact that more than 2 of us have similar opinions on topics, which I suppose might come as a shock in the hyper politically correct times in which we live. wink.gif Fortunately, (good) ideas still have a tendency to spread without the need to be forced. A general distrust of government edicts is not exclusive to him nor me, especially when that same govt. is spying on its citizenry with impunity and using its power to blatantly attack and muzzle its political adversaries.
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post #29 of 190 Old 02-18-2014, 03:07 PM
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Spying on the citizenry and attempting to muzzle it is has been the government's MO since forever. It was mastered by Nixon and technology has only improved it ever since.

Fortunately, a little Reynolds wrap over your cranium should protect you!

There is no difference in HDMI cables. If you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working. (Oh, and plasma didn't die because of logistics problems, nor does OLED ship in big boxes because it comes from Korea.)
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post #30 of 190 Old 02-18-2014, 03:22 PM
 
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Funny, except it's on steroids now with the recent completion of that giant complex in UT (and I know Bush Jr's Patriot Act is a catalyst for it, with support by both parties), and I'm not alone nor even in the minority in thinking so, according to a recent Pew Research Study, probably in part due to the revelations revealed by that whistleblower/tratior (depending on your perspective) living in exile, Edward Snowden.
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