Originally Posted by rogo
1) Cleveland Plasma is probably one of the biggest OLED dealers in the world to date. Congrats.
2) IGZO's promise always included low cost. I suspect once the processes are perfected yields on IGZO backplanes will rapidly climb past 99%. You can bet a-Si backplane yields have exceeded 99% for a long, long time.
3) I hate to say "we told you so" on 77-inch pricing... The "good news" is that maybe 20000 euros will equal closer to $20,000. Of course, it might be $25,000, which is a closer match to the Canadian price at current exchange rates. If you assume that dealer margin is similar and that someone like the "one of the world's largest OLED dealers" could discount both models by 37.5% off MSRP, that yields a street price at such a discounter of $12,500 to $15,625. If someone it could go to 40% off MSRP, plug in $12,000 to $15,000. If that's impossible, and discounts only range up to 25%, well, then $15,000 to $18,750.
That yields a completely non-definitive street price range of $12,000 - $18,750
. It should almost go without saying this pricing will be $2000-4000 lower within 18 months
-- if not cheaper still. By Rogo Logic (tm), you need to really want one in that time span to pay that much for the first year of ownership (no other year will be anywhere near as expensive).
I just told a friend to buy a Samsung plasma now
instead of getting an OLED under this theory. The idea being the Samsung was "free" even if he bought the OLED (a 65") one year from now.
[The plan failed because no one would ship an F8500 to Hawaii.
But the reasoning was still sound.]
Fafrd Logic (tm) is structured in a similar way to Rogo Logic (tm) but goes a bit differently:
a/ 79" Flagship LED/LCDs currently cost $6000-8000 (non-authorized versus mainstream channels). Let's take $6000 as a nice round number for the cost of Flagship 79" LED/LCDs in mid-2015 (probably even lower by then, but this is close enough for jazz).
b/ LG has stated an objective to price their OLEDs below '1.5X' similar-class LED/LCD before mid 2015, so pretty safe to assume that the 77EG9700/77EC9800 cost $9000 of less by next June (note that this is similar to Rogo Logic (tm) but somewhat more aggressive - 9 months to $9000, not 18).
c/ At 65", the corresponding Flagship LED/LCD price is $3000-4000 (non-authorized versus mainstream channels), so if we assume a price of $3000 by next June, the 65EC9700 should be available for $4500 by then.
d/ The 65EC9700 is being introduced at street prices of $6250, or 1.6-2.1X current 65" flagship LED/LCD pricing
e/ Applying similar premium factors to the 77" class results in a price of 1.6 x $8000 = $12,800 or 2.1 x $6000 $12,600. Where Rogo Logic (tm) see $12,000 as the lower-end of the completely non-definitive street price range, Fafrd Logic (tm) see it as the upper end of the range.
f/ If LG chooses to be as aggressive with the introductory pricing of the 77EG9700/77EC9800 as they have been with the 55EC9300 and 65EC9700, they could price as low as $9500 (similar per-Gen-8-sheet revenue based on stated yields of 90%). That is the low end of the range before year-end according to Fafrd Logic (tm).
So where Rogo Logic (tm) sees an introductory street price of $12,000 - $18,750, Fafrd Logic (tm) sees an introductory street price range of $9500 - $12,000
And where Rogo Logic (tm) sees street pricing of $10,000-14,750 18 months following introduction, Fafrd Logic (tm) see street pricing of less than $9000 within 9 months
We'll know soon, and reality is probably going to unfold somewhere between these two extremes :-)