LG EC9800 4K OLED Pricing Speculation and Tracking Thread - AVS Forum
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post #1 of 152 Old 05-24-2014, 09:50 AM - Thread Starter
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The goal of this thread is to predict and track the pricing evolution of LG's new line of EC9800 4K WOLEDs (55", 65", 77").

Based on the recent Korean analyst report: http://translate.google.com/translat...3D12&sandbox=1

which appears to make reference to a Q3 launch of these 4K WOLED products as well as a target of 'less than 1.5X' of the corresponding LED/LCD price, I'm going to go ahead and predict pricing for these 4K WOLED products that is lower than most that I have seen predicted on the Forum:

UPDATED August 23rd - 55EC9300 released at Best Buy for $3500 and street pricing of $3000 available.


LAUNCH (July 2014)
  • 55EC9300 July 12 2014, $7000 MSRP, $4000 street price
  • 65EC9800 DATE ?, $9000 MSRP, $6250 street price
  • 77EC9800 DATE ?, $25,000 MSRP ($27,000 Canadian), street price ? (MSRP announced in Canada)

September 2014
  • 55EC9300 $3000 street price (released August 23rd)
  • 65EC9700 $6250 street price (pre-release)
  • 77EC9800 $15,000 street price

December 2014
  • 55EC9300 $3000 street price
  • 65EC9800 $6000 street price
  • 77EC9800 $10,000 street price
June 2015
  • 55EC9300 $2500 street price
  • 65EC9800 $5000 street price
  • 77EC9800 $7500 street price
December 2015
  • 55EC9300 $2000 street price
  • 65EC9800 $4000 street price
  • 77EC9800 $6000 street price



Since LG has apparently focused on WOLED price premium versus corresponding LED/LCD (and rightly so), I'm also going to track prices for LG and Samsung 2014 flagship 4K LED/LCD products:


UPDATED August 23rd - new street pricing on the Samsung UNHU9000 as well as the LG 65UB9800/9500 (eliminated Samsung 8550)


55" (Average Street price = $1900; 1.5X average = $2850)
  • LG 55UB9500: $2000 MSRP, $1800 street price
  • Samsung UN55HU9000: $4000 MSRP, $2000 street price
65" (Average Street price = $3175; 1.5X average = $4760)
  • LG 65UB9800: $6000 MSRP, $3350 street price
  • Samsung UN65HU9000: $6000 MSRP, $3000 street price
75"-79" (Average Street price = $5555; 1.5X average = $8333)
  • LG 79UB9800: $10,000 MSRP,$5480 street price
  • Samsung UN78HU9000: $8000 MSRP, $5630 street price
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Last edited by fafrd; 08-23-2014 at 02:12 PM.
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post #2 of 152 Old 05-24-2014, 09:55 AM
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Originally Posted by fafrd View Post

55" (Average Street price = $3300; 1.5X average = $5000)
  • LG 55UB8500: $2000 MSRP, $2000 street price
  • Samsung UN65HU9000: $4000 MSRP, $3300 street price
  • Samsung UN35HU8550: $3000 MSRP, $2500 street price

 

Did you get the model numbers wrong on this one?  65, 35?


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post #3 of 152 Old 05-24-2014, 09:57 AM
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Originally Posted by fafrd View Post

December 2014
  • 55EC9800 $4000 street price
  • 65EC9800 $6000 street price

 

4Ks?  Whoa!


Beware the statistical correlations that sound like they're indicative of something. Drowning deaths are tightly correlated to ice cream consumption. In fact, be wary of any statistic that is stated as if it comes with a self-evident conclusion: there is no such thing.
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post #4 of 152 Old 05-24-2014, 10:12 AM - Thread Starter
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Originally Posted by tgm1024 View Post

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Originally Posted by fafrd View Post

55" (Average Street price = $3300; 1.5X average = $5000)
  • LG 55UB8500: $2000 MSRP, $2000 street price
  • Samsung UN65HU9000: $4000 MSRP, $3300 street price
  • Samsung UN35HU8550: $3000 MSRP, $2500 street price

Did you get the model numbers wrong on this one?  65, 35?

Thanks! (fixed)
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post #5 of 152 Old 05-24-2014, 10:18 AM
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Keep in mind that for 2K, the radical price drops by LG are almost certainly hitting (or starting to hit) the flattening part of the curve already.  1. I can't image the price drops will map onto 4K's and 2. progress quite that linearly for through all of 2015.


Beware the statistical correlations that sound like they're indicative of something. Drowning deaths are tightly correlated to ice cream consumption. In fact, be wary of any statistic that is stated as if it comes with a self-evident conclusion: there is no such thing.
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post #6 of 152 Old 05-24-2014, 10:22 AM
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Very interesting, fafrd, and I have to say that these predictions chime pretty closely with how I see things unfolding, too - just perhaps not quite as quickly.

The prices you predict around December is where I see things being around April or May next year, once production is well established.

I made this prediction in another forum a little while ago, and was met with acepticism, but everything I've heard since reinforces my confidence.

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post #7 of 152 Old 05-24-2014, 10:25 AM - Thread Starter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tgm1024 View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by fafrd View Post

December 2014
  • 55EC9800 $4000 street price
  • 65EC9800 $6000 street price

4Ks?  Whoa!

The 55" 1080p WOLEDs are not exactly flying off the shelves at $4K, and while the 4K resolution for the same price may drive slightly higher sales, I don't see lines forming to get them before they disappear even at that price. I mean, how many people want a 4K 55" TV anyway, right?

LG has priced their Flagship 55" 4K LED/LCD 55UB8500 at $2000 (just recently), so if I wanted to really take the supposed statement of 1.5X LED/LCD pricing at full face value, pricing could even be lower than $4000 for the 55" 4K before the end of the year.

For the 65", 4K Flagship pricing for 65" LED/LCD is coming in pretty squarely at $4000 (both for the market overall as well as LG+Samsung). And we all know how many 65" X950Bs Sony will be selling this year at $8000 MSRP. So I believe the 65" EC9800 will be priced below the MSRP of the 65" X950B and if LG sticks to the hoped-for target of 1.5X, I think they will be at $6000 by yearend (street).

The 65" can't really be brought into production on the pilot line, so I expect it to be the biggest focus once the M2 line starts in production. For the US market, anyway, I expect LG to be most aggressive with the pricing of the 65" this year.
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post #8 of 152 Old 05-24-2014, 10:28 AM
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Originally Posted by tgm1024 View Post

4Ks?  Whoa!

The 55" 1080p WOLEDs are not exactly flying off the shelves at $4K, and while the 4K resolution for the same price may drive slightly higher sales, I don't see lines forming to get them before they disappear even at that price. I mean, how many people want a 4K 55" TV anyway, right?

 

They're not flying off the shelves now because they're $4k and 1080p.  The later generations are 4K, and the public will shift perceptions toward 4K if they're going to spend a lot of money anyway.  We've been speculating that 2K OLED was a marketing uphill battle for a while now.  And the public will not risk buyers remorse on a lower resolution anyway, despite what folks here seem to argue.  Right or wrong, it's entering the public consciousness now as the next great thing and if they're paying non-Vizio prices, they're not going to be thinking 2K.


Beware the statistical correlations that sound like they're indicative of something. Drowning deaths are tightly correlated to ice cream consumption. In fact, be wary of any statistic that is stated as if it comes with a self-evident conclusion: there is no such thing.
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post #9 of 152 Old 05-24-2014, 10:35 AM - Thread Starter
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Very interesting, fafrd, and I have to say that these predictions chime pretty closely with how I see things unfolding, too - just perhaps not quite as quickly.

The prices you predict around launch is where I things being around Christmas this year, once production is well underway, and your December figures is where I see things being around April or May next year.

I made this prediction in another forum a little while ago, and was met with acepticism, but everything I've heard since reinforces my confidence.

Desk
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Good to know I'm not alone biggrin.gif

I'm not predicting launch prices, however. The end of December prices I am predicting are predicated on the manufacturing from M2 being up and running, and it is not clear to me whether LG may launch based on high-cost low-vole manufacturing from the pilot line. The 65" or 77" WOLED they hopefully slip into this year's VE Shootout in mid-July will almost certainly be coming off of the pilot line. So unclear to me whether LG will prefer to launch with high pricing to hold back demand until M2 is running and then deeply discount yet again or if they would risk driving demand with low target pricing before they are in a position to serve that demand.

If the EC9800s launch with 'low' prices (compared to most everyone's expectations including the pre-order prices that have been posted in Australia and Europe), then it would mean to me that M2 is likely coming online quickly and smoothly. If they launch with the high prices everyone is expecting, the drop which I expect before year-end will signal that M2 has come online.
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post #10 of 152 Old 05-24-2014, 10:49 AM - Thread Starter
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Originally Posted by tgm1024 View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by fafrd View Post

 
Quote:
Originally Posted by tgm1024 View Post

4Ks?  Whoa!


The 55" 1080p WOLEDs are not exactly flying off the shelves at $4K, and while the 4K resolution for the same price may drive slightly higher sales, I don't see lines forming to get them before they disappear even at that price. I mean, how many people want a 4K 55" TV anyway, right?

They're not flying off the shelves now because they're $4k and 1080p.  The later generations are 4K, and the public will shift perceptions toward 4K if they're going to spend a lot of money anyway.  We've been speculating that 2K OLED was a marketing uphill battle for a while now.  And the public will not risk buyers remorse on a lower resolution anyway, despite what folks here seem to argue.  Right or wrong, it's entering the public consciousness now as the next great thing and if they're paying non-Vizio prices, they're not going to be thinking 2K.

Agree with everything you have said, but not sure there is much demand for 4K 55" TVs in the US market. That is why I see the 65" EC9800 as being so critical for success in the US market. Even at 80% yield for the 55" on the half-substrate pilot line, the cost for the 65" WOLED (single 65" per half-substrate) would be almost 3 times the 55".

Once the M2 full-substrate manufacturing line is running at a similar yield-level, the 65" cost (three 65" per full-substrate) drops to below 2.2X the cost of the 55".

I expect LG to be very aggressive with the 65" EC9800 to go after market share in the 'premium' (4K) 'massive' (60" and above) segment which is the fastest growing segment in the US market and where I believe the 65" WOLED will get a lot of interest if it is priced competitively (meaning against the $4K pricepoint of high-end 4K LED/LCD).
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Good to know I'm not alone biggrin.gif

I'm not predicting launch prices, however.

I know, and that was my mistake, I'm afraid. I read your post while out and about on my phone, and in my eagerness to reply I misremembered. My contention is that your December prices are more likely around this time next year, once the M2 line is well established.

My feeling is that the initial 4K pilot-line sets will be lower than is generally anticipated, but not radically. Instead, there'll be a pretty rapid and steep decline in price similar to what we've seen with the Gen 1 set, which will be a selling point to customers and reflect the gearing up of mass production.

I'm also going to predict that around spring next year we'll see the arrival of a flat, gallery-style 65" set, as LG gradually moves their OLED TV products towards the wider consumer market.

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post #12 of 152 Old 05-24-2014, 03:37 PM - Thread Starter
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Originally Posted by fafrd View Post

Good to know I'm not alone biggrin.gif

I'm not predicting launch prices, however.

I know, and that was my mistake, I'm afraid. I read your post while out and about on my phone, and in my eagerness to reply I misremembered. My contention is that your December prices are more likely around this time next year, once the M2 line is well established.

My feeling is that the initial 4K pilot-line sets will be lower than is generally anticipated, but not radically. Instead, there'll be a pretty rapid and steep decline in price similar to what we've seen with the Gen 1 set, which will be a selling point to customers and reflect the gearing up of mass production.

I'm also going to predict that around spring next year we'll see the arrival of a flat, gallery-style 65" set, as LG gradually moves their OLED TV products towards the wider consumer market.

Desk

I don't believe that there will be any real initial production of 4K sets off of the pilot line, but time will tell. Our views are very much aligned with the exception of timing for the M2 line to be 'well-established'

I think I'm seeing noises that LG expects to have the line in production before the end of Q3, which, if true, means it is likely that the only production of EC9800s will be off of the M2 line.

If it takes LG a year to get M2 running smoothly, then the schedule you have suggested (which is consistent with the 'large price-drop to affordable levels by mid-2105' that LG has already signaled) is the more likely scenario.

From the few hints that have emerged, I expect that M2 will be in production before the end of the year (and possibly starting as early as the end of Q3).

To put things into perspective, even if the M2 line is running at only 50% yield, the initial capacity of 8000 substrates per month translates into 24,000 55" WOLEDs a month that will come pouring off the line.

I believe the pricing we have seen up to now has little to do with actual production cost and everything to do with very limited production capacity, and the moment production at M2 begins, I believe we will know it from pricing drops on the EC9800 to levels in this range. LG will suddenly need to be selling close to 100 times the volume they have been selling up to now and that will not happen without dramatic cost reductions from current levels.
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post #13 of 152 Old 05-26-2014, 09:12 PM
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4K dose not make sense until you get to 65", I have seen the Sony 55900B and the 55" LG OLED has a much better picture even if the 900b is running 4k. At 65" you can start to appreciate the 4K picture quality and detail.
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4K dose not make sense until you get to 65"

 

Here we go again....


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post #15 of 152 Old 05-27-2014, 11:13 AM
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4K dose not make sense until you get to 65", I have seen the Sony 55900B and the 55" LG OLED has a much better picture even if the 900b is running 4k. At 65" you can start to appreciate the 4K picture quality and detail.


Size has nothing to do with 4k being visibility better. It all comes down to seating distance......4 feet from 55" would greatly benefit from 4k,or how about a 27" monitor from 1.5 feet. Also, you have to factor in EYESIGHT. Some people are just blind as ****, and probably wouldn't notice the difference between 480p and 4k.
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post #16 of 152 Old 05-27-2014, 11:24 AM
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Maybe your right but I have never been Impressed with the Sony 55900B and love the 65900B. I think 4k on a 55 is a complete waste, who sits 4 feet from their screen? I say but a 4k cell phone and hold it 2" from ur face.
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post #17 of 152 Old 05-27-2014, 02:09 PM
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^ I am reading your comments on a 39" Seiki 4k set from ~ 3 feet. Great improvement in resolution/readability over the 37" 1080p Samsung it replaced. Will never go back to 2k for a PC monitor.
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post #18 of 152 Old 05-27-2014, 04:01 PM - Thread Starter
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Updated Samsung 65" Flagship 65UB9000 street pricing now down to $3900.
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post #19 of 152 Old 05-28-2014, 08:34 AM
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Maybe your right but I have never been Impressed with the Sony 55900B and love the 65900B. I think 4k on a 55 is a complete waste, who sits 4 feet from their screen? I say but a 4k cell phone and hold it 2" from ur face.

My place is small and I still have my old 56" RPTV CRT HD-Ready tv and it takes about 2 feet of space from my wall. The distance between my couch and the screen is about 5 feet away. I would love to save some space to put a 55" or 65" to put on my wall because I never wanted plasma or LCD for my main display. I guess it would technically be 7 feet away if I had a flat wall-mounted display, so it still might be a waste like you said, but I'm about that close now (4-5 feet).

These prices for the LG 4K OLED are not as bad as I thought (but still might not have the funds to buy).
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Maybe your right but I have never been Impressed with the Sony 55900B and love the 65900B. I think 4k on a 55 is a complete waste, who sits 4 feet from their screen? I say but a 4k cell phone and hold it 2" from ur face.

My place is small and I still have my old 56" RPTV CRT HD-Ready tv and it takes about 2 feet of space from my wall. The distance between my couch and the screen is about 5 feet away. I would love to save some space to put a 55" or 65" to put on my wall because I never wanted plasma or LCD for my main display. I guess it would technically be 7 feet away if I had a flat wall-mounted display, so it still might be a waste like you said, but I'm about that close now (4-5 feet).

These prices for the LG 4K OLED are not as bad as I thought (but still might not have the funds to buy).

Just to be clear - these prices are pure speculation at this point - most are expecting prices to be significantly higher :-(
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Im still sceptical about the 4k 55 inch set, i dont think it will materialize this year. Sounds like their will be only 3 new sets this year, the 77ec9800, 65ec9700 and the 1080p 55ec9300. Just basing this on a recent Wall Street Journal article, and that some of the retailers that have listed the new oleds only include the 3 sets mentioned above and no mention of the 4k 55" set.
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post #22 of 152 Old 05-31-2014, 08:53 PM - Thread Starter
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Big price drops on the Samsung HU9000 and HU8550 (especially the 65" - street price now $3400 for the 2014 Samsung 65" Flagship TV).
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post #23 of 152 Old 06-01-2014, 04:43 PM
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Big price drops on the Samsung HU9000 and HU8550 (especially the 65" - street price now $3400 for the 2014 Samsung 65" Flagship TV).
According to Amazon's notations, for the HU8550, the 55" and 65" sizes were reduced by $502, but the 50" and 75" sizes went down by only $2.

And now, turning from Samsung LCDs back to LG OLED's ...

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post #24 of 152 Old 06-19-2014, 07:21 AM
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I thought the MSRP on the 77" LG would be more in the neighborhood of 25K, with a street price in the high teens. Has this changed?
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post #25 of 152 Old 06-19-2014, 10:34 AM - Thread Starter
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I thought the MSRP on the 77" LG would be more in the neighborhood of 25K, with a street price in the high teens. Has this changed?

Read the first post of the thread. LG has apparently stated that the price premium for OLED will be less that 50% beyond that of a similar-sized LED/LCD flagship TV before the end of the year. There has been nothing to indicate that statement was intended to apply only to the 55" WOLEDs, so if they intend to make good on that <150% target for the 77" as well, that ought to mean pricing in the ballpark of $10K based on current street pricing for 75-80" Flagship LED/LCDs...
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post #26 of 152 Old 06-19-2014, 11:56 AM
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Thanks. That would be great news and a great trend.
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post #27 of 152 Old 06-19-2014, 12:13 PM
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So we're about 20 days into Q3. Any mention of when these will be available? Or is this another OLED prediction that doesn't happen?
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post #28 of 152 Old 06-19-2014, 12:40 PM
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So we're about 20 days into Q3. Any mention of when these will be available? Or is this another OLED prediction that doesn't happen?
i wouldn't expect to see any until September at least. i definitely hope the predictions are right.
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post #29 of 152 Old 06-19-2014, 12:43 PM
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Originally Posted by KidHorn View Post
So we're about 20 days into Q3. Any mention of when these will be available? Or is this another OLED prediction that doesn't happen?
The 3rd quarter starts in July.
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post #30 of 152 Old 06-19-2014, 12:44 PM
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Originally Posted by fafrd View Post
Read the first post of the thread. LG has apparently stated that the price premium for OLED will be less that 50% beyond that of a similar-sized LED/LCD flagship TV before the end of the year. There has been nothing to indicate that statement was intended to apply only to the 55" WOLEDs, so if they intend to make good on that <150% target for the 77" as well, that ought to mean pricing in the ballpark of $10K based on current street pricing for 75-80" Flagship LED/LCDs...
The source of this is a translation of an analyst report. I dont see anything that indicates that LG endorsed or stated these numbers.
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