LG 77" 4k OLED - $12,000? - Page 3 - AVS Forum
Forum Jump: 
 49Likes
Reply
 
Thread Tools
post #61 of 199 Old 09-03-2014, 04:08 PM
AVS Special Member
 
fafrd's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Posts: 4,078
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 14 Post(s)
Liked: 707
Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo View Post
So, yes, they are getting new capacity. But, yes, it will take many months (maybe a year?) to ramp that capacity to full.

As for the biggest sizes, there is no history of "not soaking". I see that as the place where pricing has always started inconsistently high and I'm not sure why it wouldn't do that here. There is, incidentally, no reason to price the biggest sizes such that they drive the demand. You'd want to lower pricing on the bottom sizes first because the yield profile is inherently better there and, more importantly, you expand the population of OLED owners faster.

Only LG knows how may months they are planning to ramp before reaching 50% capacity - we'll know when we see a permanent return to the 'mistaken' MacMall price of $2K for the 55".

It's difficult to say how much of a headwind the 55EC9300 s going to run into being only 1080p - the 65EC9700 may do better than expected (on a relative basis).

The price will start high, but the question is how quickly it gets discounted down to something more realistic - remember Sharp's launch of the UQ/SQ early this year - they were discounted close to 40% off of MSRP prior to launch/availability...

Gonna be an interesting 4 months :-)
fafrd is offline  
Sponsored Links
Advertisement
 
post #62 of 199 Old 09-03-2014, 06:32 PM
AVS Special Member
 
barth2k's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 3,274
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 92 Post(s)
Liked: 119
Quote:
Originally Posted by fafrd View Post
Your statement I highlighted in Bold is just so wrong.

The M2 manufacturing line is coming online 'in Q3' (which ends in less than 4 weeks). That plant has installed capacity to pump out 26,000 Gen-8 OLED sheets per month. That translates into a virtual tsunami of OLED TVs versus the half-sheet pilot line OLED production LG has been living off of up until now.

There is no 'soaking' to be had here - LG will soon need to drive demand for their OLED higher by orders of magnitude. While estimates (probably exaggerated) are that LG sold 3000 55" OLEDs in 2013, the M2 line is capable of manufacturing 1.7 MILLION 55" OLEDs per year (or 850,000 65" OLEDs or 566,000 77" OLEDs).

That capacity amounts to less than 1% of the overall TV market, but it's close to 10% of the 'high-end large-size premium TV' market, and we'll know when production output starts to back up because prices will drop dramatically (again).

Will all of this unfold by Christmas 2014? Probably not - the production will probably start at less-than-full capacity and ramp up from there. But by June 2015, it's a near certainty that LG will need to be pricing to drive demand at levels more than 100x where they are today.


This LG OLED story has nothing to do with 'soaking' anybody and has everything to do with capitalizing on their first-mover advantage to capture as many customers as quickly as possible.
I stand corrected about LG's capacity. But what I said is true enough: they're not making more TVs than they can sell -- now. That is changing soon, soon being about six months?

Do we actually have a substantive disagreement? I thought we are speculating on how the 77" will be priced when it is introduced. Not six months after release, not how quickly price will drop, not what LG should or need to do. I'm assuming a/ this is happening pretty soon, and b/ the 77" and 65" will be introduced around the same time even though the 77" may not be available right away. Given those assumptions, I think it's not unreasonable to think the 77" will be priced roughly 2x the 65".

I think you took exception to my calling it "soaking". That's just my brain on years of internet snark. Let's call it premium pricing. Special case of price discrimination. A tax on the enthusiastic and impatient? LG needs to sell a lot of sets, but do they need to sell a lot of 77" sets? You think that a perfect storm of converging factors forces LG to be very aggressive. This has already proven to be correct. But my guess is the 77" will still be priced to move... the 65 and 55", at least initially. They'll be happy to sell a healthy number of 77" too of course.

I've been in AVSforum for a while and I've seen some insane pricing on flagship products. If this were Sony, we wouldn't even be arguing. Get out your rain gears (there I go again). LG may just surprise us and street it at $9999 on day one. (I'll take the over.) A lot depends on how soon LG can get this set out and how successful Samsung is at distracting the public with curved UHD and "quantum LED".
barth2k is offline  
post #63 of 199 Old 09-03-2014, 06:56 PM
AVS Special Member
 
fafrd's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Posts: 4,078
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 14 Post(s)
Liked: 707
Quote:
Originally Posted by barth2k View Post
I stand corrected about LG's capacity. But what I said is true enough: they're not making more TVs than they can sell -- now. That is changing soon, soon being about six months?

Do we actually have a substantive disagreement? I thought we are speculating on how the 77" will be priced when it is introduced. Not six months after release, not how quickly price will drop, not what LG should or need to do. I'm assuming a/ this is happening pretty soon, and b/ the 77" and 65" will be introduced around the same time even though the 77" may not be available right away. Given those assumptions, I think it's not unreasonable to think the 77" will be priced roughly 2x the 65".

I think you took exception to my calling it "soaking". That's just my brain on years of internet snark. Let's call it premium pricing. Special case of price discrimination. A tax on the enthusiastic and impatient? LG needs to sell a lot of sets, but do they need to sell a lot of 77" sets? You think that a perfect storm of converging factors forces LG to be very aggressive. This has already proven to be correct. But my guess is the 77" will still be priced to move... the 65 and 55", at least initially. They'll be happy to sell a healthy number of 77" too of course.

I've been in AVSforum for a while and I've seen some insane pricing on flagship products. If this were Sony, we wouldn't even be arguing. Get out your rain gears (there I go again). LG may just surprise us and street it at $9999 on day one. (I'll take the over.) A lot depends on how soon LG can get this set out and how successful Samsung is at distracting the public with curved UHD and "quantum LED".

Yeah, you and Rogo are pretty closely aligned and the main thing that I see differently is that M2 is likely to ramped up way past the current pilot line capacity in far less than 6 months. But we don't know - it's pure speculation.

My point is that where before LG OLED TV had to share a limited 8000 half-sheet capacity per month with other products, they now have dedicated capacity available that is more than 6 times that level (26,000 full sheets per month). They want to sell everything they are capable of producing for the maximum price they can get, but if they produce less to support higher prices, they will still be eating depreciation of over $10M per month. If they only produce 1000 TVs per month, than amounts to $10,000 in depreciation cost PER TV. If they produce 10,000 TVs per month, that drops to $1000 per TV, and once they are running at capacity of 1.7M TVs 55" TVs per month, the depreciation cost drops to a little over $6 per TV.

Compared to LCD fabs, where the mix between high-end flagship products and low-end products can be adjusted to keep the fab fully loaded (and to maintain high prices on limited-availability flagship models to 'soak' the 1%), in M2 LG is fully exposed to covering that facility amortization cost only on sales of 55", 65" and 77" OLED TVs. They will need to sell them as quickly as they can ramp production and they will need to sell at the price the market is willing to bear to soak up that supply.

1.5X high-end LED/LCD price by mid 2015 is a near-certainly (and LG themselves as said as much), but I believe that if M2 ramps as quickly asI am expecting, we will see 1.5X pricing much earlier than that (and possibly by this holiday season or Superbowl season) and by mid 2015, we may be at 1.1X Flagship LED/LCD pricing.

The 77" costs about 1.5X the cost of the 65", so if the 77" is priced at 2X the 65", it either means that LG is having production problems with the 77" or they have concluded that a lower will price will not drive any incremental sales volumes (only incrementally lower manufacturing margin).

So we'll need to wait and see - the 65" has certainly been priced more aggressively than most were thinking (and at about 2X the 55", which corresponds to its relative cost) - so we'll need to see where the 77" ends up getting priced when it is launched just before the holidays.

Last edited by fafrd; 09-03-2014 at 07:00 PM.
fafrd is offline  
post #64 of 199 Old 09-03-2014, 07:37 PM
Member
 
ynotgoal's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 129
Mentioned: 1 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 36 Post(s)
Liked: 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by fafrd View Post
M2 is likely to ramped up way past the current pilot line capacity in far less than 6 months. But we don't know - it's pure speculation.
What we do know is LG has the full 26K of OLED production and 8K of IGZO production in place for M2. They have been working to bring that 8K online for the past few months. We don't know when that starts real production. We also know they expect the remainder will be brought online in two installments with the final line probably in the 2nd half (maybe q3) of next year.
rogo likes this.
ynotgoal is offline  
post #65 of 199 Old 09-03-2014, 08:27 PM
AVS Special Member
 
fafrd's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Posts: 4,078
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 14 Post(s)
Liked: 707
Quote:
Originally Posted by ynotgoal View Post
What we do know is LG has the full 26K of OLED production and 8K of IGZO production in place for M2. They have been working to bring that 8K online for the past few months. We don't know when that starts real production. We also know they expect the remainder will be brought online in two installments with the final line probably in the 2nd half (maybe q3) of next year.

Thanks for the helpful detail - is there a source for that information?


Assuming the information is correct, that initial production will be at a level of 8000 Gen-8 sheets per month, that still equates to a massive increase in volume versus what they have been producing off of the half-sheet M1 pilot line.


over 40,000 55" or over 20,000 65" or over 14,000 77" OLED TVs per month....


LG has not yet sold 40,000 OLED TVs total.


And in terms of not knowing when M2 starts real production, I believe LG has stated that the 4K OLEDs will only be produced in M2, so as soon as the 65EC9700 is launched later this month, we can be reasonably certain M2 is up and running in production...
fafrd is offline  
post #66 of 199 Old 09-04-2014, 01:43 AM
AVS Addicted Member
 
rogo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 1999
Location: Stop making curved screens
Posts: 30,347
Mentioned: 2 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 284 Post(s)
Liked: 598
They aren't going to go from not selling 40,000 TVs ever to just building 40,000 TVs in a month fafrd.

They are going to ramp even that more slowly. Capacity and production are, of course, not the same thing.

Look for a meaningful ramp up over the next several months, but unless there is a plan to push the 55-inch models below $2500, I don't see how they are supporting volumes anywhere near 40,000 per month. Do you?

There is no difference in HDMI cables. If you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working. (Oh, and plasma didn't die because of logistics problems, nor does OLED ship in big boxes because it comes from Korea.)
rogo is online now  
post #67 of 199 Old 09-04-2014, 02:18 AM
AVS Special Member
 
Wizziwig's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: SoCal, USA
Posts: 1,332
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 243 Post(s)
Liked: 178
Quote:
Originally Posted by fafrd View Post
And in terms of not knowing when M2 starts real production, I believe LG has stated that the 4K OLEDs will only be produced in M2, so as soon as the 65EC9700 is launched later this month, we can be reasonably certain M2 is up and running in production...
I think I recall reading the opposite but can't find the source. Where they would switch the 55" production to M2 because it's a larger volume product and they need the extra capacity. They would keep the smaller volume larger sets on the older line. I doubt the upcoming 65" is coming from M2.
Wizziwig is offline  
post #68 of 199 Old 09-04-2014, 06:51 PM
AVS Special Member
 
fafrd's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Posts: 4,078
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 14 Post(s)
Liked: 707
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wizziwig View Post
I think I recall reading the opposite but can't find the source. Where they would switch the 55" production to M2 because it's a larger volume product and they need the extra capacity. They would keep the smaller volume larger sets on the older line. I doubt the upcoming 65" is coming from M2.

M1 is half Gen8 sheet, so that translates into 3 55" or only a single 65" or 77" per half-sheet. For prototyping, it's fine, but the inefficiencies of producing the 65" on M1 make it a near-certainly that production of the 65EC9700 will only be run on the full-sheet M2 production line (which translates into 6 55" or 3 65" or 2 77").


It's interesting that the efficiency of M1 is basically identical to M2 for 55" and 77" and that the user manual for the 55EC9300 is also the user manual for the 77EA9800 (while we have not yet seen any user manual for the 65EC9700)...
fafrd is offline  
post #69 of 199 Old 09-04-2014, 07:44 PM
AVS Special Member
 
fafrd's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Posts: 4,078
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 14 Post(s)
Liked: 707
Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo View Post
They aren't going to go from not selling 40,000 TVs ever to just building 40,000 TVs in a month fafrd.

They are going to ramp even that more slowly. Capacity and production are, of course, not the same thing.

Look for a meaningful ramp up over the next several months, but unless there is a plan to push the 55-inch models below $2500, I don't see how they are supporting volumes anywhere near 40,000 per month. Do you?

That is the point I have been trying to make - even at a production volume / WOLED tsunami of 'only' 40,000 55" TVs per month, there is no way that volume will be absorbed at current pricing.

Would that level of volume be absorbed at prices of $2500 or might it take sustainable pricing at the $2000 level of the MacMall 'mistake' / firesale, only LG has any idea.

But I believe LG will ramp their capacity as quickly as they can and will drive pricing down to the levels to absorb that capacity, whatever that ends up meaning.

Let's use the phase-1 capacity of only 8000 Gen8 sheets per months and assume optimistically that only 1/3 of the $650M that has been earmarked has actually been spent and is starting to be amortized (certainly more than that, but let's keep things simple).

So we have only $220M being amortized on 8000 sheets per month or 40,000 55" TVs per month. That's still $3.7M per month that needs to be amortized, which translates into close to $3700 per TV if they are only producing 1000 55" TVS in a month, drops to $370 once they are producing 10,000 TVs in a month, and drops to $93 per TV once they are producing a full 40,000 TVs per month.

In the effort to get a new flatpanel TV technology established, LG will be better served selling 10x the volume at 1/10th of the net manufacturing margin (before amortization), so my strong suspicion is that that is exactly what they will do (especially in the face of Samsung's marketing onslaught).

I think we'll get a sense of exactly how well LG is doing with their ramp and their yields through what we see happening with price, and I suspect that what we see in 2015 is going to make the 'unexpected price drops of 2014' look like child's play in comparison.

I trust your views on pricing more than my own, so I'd be interested in your view of what premium over high-end LED LCD will drive demand for 40,000 55" 1080p TVs per month - my gut tells me that's probably close to 10x the volume they are selling at the $3000-3500 price of today and they may need to drop current pricing by as much as 50% to drive 10x demand.

I have a better sense at 65" (where they only need to sell 20,000 65" 4K TVs per month) where currently proposed pricing of $6250-7000 is about 2X Flagship LED/LCD pricing (ignoring Sony and Panasonic :-) and where I think they will need to get below 1.33X LED/LCD to have a chance of selling that volume monthly (meaning $4000-5000).

So assuming the M2 ramp to 8000 sheets per month goes as well as is being indicated, I expect we'll see pricing for the 65EC9700 below $5000 far more quickly than anyone is expecting - possibly by the Holiday Shopping Season, probably by CES 2015/Superbowl Shopping Season - certainly by Spring-2105.

The 77" is a wildcard because a lower price may not drive additional demand for such a large TV. In that case, LG may keep the price high to generate as much margin as possible out of a fixed sales volume (no market elasticity).

How many 75-80" TV would you guess will be sold in 2015? (and how many do you think might have sold in 2014?)

Last edited by fafrd; 09-04-2014 at 07:47 PM.
fafrd is offline  
post #70 of 199 Old 09-04-2014, 08:39 PM
Advanced Member
 
slacker711's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 673
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 89 Post(s)
Liked: 143
Quote:
Originally Posted by fafrd View Post
I trust your views on pricing more than my own, so I'd be interested in your view of what premium over high-end LED LCD will drive demand for 40,000 55" 1080p TVs per month - my gut tells me that's probably close to 10x the volume they are selling at the $3000-3500 price of today and they may need to drop current pricing by as much as 50% to drive 10x demand.
The model has been on sale at a single chain in a single country for about two weeks. I dont think we have much idea about whether they will be selling at a 4000 unit a month rate after it becomes widely available.
slacker711 is online now  
post #71 of 199 Old 09-04-2014, 09:47 PM
AVS Special Member
 
fafrd's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Posts: 4,078
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 14 Post(s)
Liked: 707
Quote:
Originally Posted by slacker711 View Post
The model has been on sale at a single chain in a single country for about two weeks. I dont think we have much idea about whether they will be selling at a 4000 unit a month rate after it becomes widely available.

You wrote '4000 unit a month rate' but we are talking about 40,000 units a month. The US is the primary sales target market (followed by the EU), so most of that volume is expected to be absorbed by these two markets.

Traffic on the board indicates that interest and number and speed of buyers has increased by roughly 10x versus this spring (when The Plague bought his set :-). We already know enough to know that it has not increased by 100x since 6 months ago (and you can PM Cleveland Plasma if you want to make an additional check on that :-).

And here on the Forum we are talking about the crème-de-la-crème in terms of target buyers. LG won't get the sales they need from educated videophiles alone - they will need consumers to walk in to Best Buy, be wowed by the 55EC9300, and walk out as an owner. At this price and in the way the 55EC9300 is being promoted in Best Buy today, than ain't happening - just visit a few times and you will see what I mean.

Maybe LG was selling as 'many' as 400 units a month this spring, maybe they will increase that to 4000 units a month with the unexpectedly low introductory price of $3000-3500 on the 55EC9300 and the promotions they are driving, but I believe we have more than 'some idea' that there is no way they get to 40,000 units a month at this price range.
fafrd is offline  
post #72 of 199 Old 09-05-2014, 12:20 AM
Member
 
LeKnobber's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 82
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 6 Post(s)
Liked: 38
No need to apologize. Nothing wrong with being in the very small minority of people that care about 3D. My point is simply that 3D is no longer a selling point or focus for the industry. It failed to generate any traction. Manufacturers have moved on to 4K.

Quote:
Originally Posted by PeterS View Post
Sorry, but 3D is a very big deal to me, and the fact that the new 4k OLEDs have PASSIVE 3D is a major selling factor and why I have not bought one of the very good (and much cheaper) LCD sets so far.


Once you have seen 4k passive 3D, (almost) all of the objections to 3D as a format go away.


Why they kept pushing the piss-poor ACTIVE 3D on people when a clear 50% of the population gets a headache from the "flicker" glasses, I will never know.
LeKnobber is offline  
post #73 of 199 Old 09-05-2014, 01:59 AM
AVS Addicted Member
 
rogo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 1999
Location: Stop making curved screens
Posts: 30,347
Mentioned: 2 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 284 Post(s)
Liked: 598
So I don't have numbers handy on what's selling in what size categories for 2014, but just looking at it quickly, 40,000 units per month is a lot.

Best Buy has a Samsung 4K LCD that's $2200, one that's $2500, one that's $3300 and a Sony that's $3000. My guess is all of those together -- across all retailers -- aren't moving much above that 40K rate in the U.S. If they are, that one size -- in 4K -- would be accounting for 1.5% of U.S. TV sales. The entire global non-China 4K market was supposed to 3 million units this year. I suspect (a) a lot of that is Vizio (b) a lot of that is bigger than 55 inches, where 4K is barely discernible (c) a decent chunk is Japan and Europe.

Now, enter LG, with a 1080p set. It's slated to cost more than all of them? And basically sell as much as them all combined? This doesn't feel remotely plausible. So, yes, something will have to give there and it does seem like price is the thing.

What's a high-end LCD price when you are talking 55-inch though? Is it $1500 because it's only a 1080p? Or is it $2500? LG fails if they think they can charge 1.5x what a 4K set costs. If they go to 1.5x what a 1080p set costs and drive the price below $2500 quickly, they can start to hit the volumes they need.

And, yes, I agree with you on the 65s. They need to get below $5000 quickly. But I think I said that elsewhere, too.

There is no difference in HDMI cables. If you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working. (Oh, and plasma didn't die because of logistics problems, nor does OLED ship in big boxes because it comes from Korea.)
rogo is online now  
post #74 of 199 Old 09-05-2014, 04:34 AM
AVS Special Member
 
greenland's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 5,203
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 78 Post(s)
Liked: 189
With regard to sales numbers projections for the LG 65 inch 4K OLED model, surely the end of Plasma production by all companies will help to boost sales of the LG product? Dedicated Plasma lovers who are ready to purchase a new TV during the next twelve months will most likely want to opt for OLED. If LG can not capture that consumer niche, they will stand no chance of establishing OLED as a viable long term competitor for LCD displays.

Last edited by greenland; 09-05-2014 at 04:37 AM.
greenland is offline  
post #75 of 199 Old 09-05-2014, 11:45 AM
Member
 
crab's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Oak Harbor WA
Posts: 165
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 14 Post(s)
Liked: 14
I think another factor to consider is simply that high(er) end sets sell a little differently. Someone buying a 10k set obviously isn't buying on price so much as someone who just flat has 1k to spend and will do the best they can for their money. In other words I think a lot more TVs sold on the lower end are likely to be purchased at max spend than on the upper end. I know I will set out with a cap but if I need to spend (a little) more to get some feature that seems worth it I will spend over my cap. Obviously everyone has their limits but I hopefully I'm getting the concept across. Bottom line is I think OLED may compete better on the higher end than the lower end here at the beginning when its an uphill price battle against LCD.
crab is online now  
post #76 of 199 Old 09-05-2014, 01:56 PM
AVS Addicted Member
 
rogo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 1999
Location: Stop making curved screens
Posts: 30,347
Mentioned: 2 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 284 Post(s)
Liked: 598
Quote:
Originally Posted by greenland View Post
With regard to sales numbers projections for the LG 65 inch 4K OLED model, surely the end of Plasma production by all companies will help to boost sales of the LG product? Dedicated Plasma lovers who are ready to purchase a new TV during the next twelve months will most likely want to opt for OLED. If LG can not capture that consumer niche, they will stand no chance of establishing OLED as a viable long term competitor for LCD displays.
I don't see how the end of plasma helps. Plasmas were maxing out at $3K. The OLED is going to be twice that. There is only a tiny subset of buyers that price indifferent.

Quote:
Originally Posted by crab View Post
I think another factor to consider is simply that high(er) end sets sell a little differently. Someone buying a 10k set obviously isn't buying on price so much as someone who just flat has 1k to spend and will do the best they can for their money. In other words I think a lot more TVs sold on the lower end are likely to be purchased at max spend than on the upper end. I know I will set out with a cap but if I need to spend (a little) more to get some feature that seems worth it I will spend over my cap. Obviously everyone has their limits but I hopefully I'm getting the concept across. Bottom line is I think OLED may compete better on the higher end than the lower end here at the beginning when its an uphill price battle against LCD.
Well, yes, it will compete better on the high end. But the market for $10,000 TVs is so small and it's not like LG enters it and get 100% just by showing up with an OLED. It doesn't work that way either.

There is no difference in HDMI cables. If you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working. (Oh, and plasma didn't die because of logistics problems, nor does OLED ship in big boxes because it comes from Korea.)
rogo is online now  
post #77 of 199 Old 09-05-2014, 04:10 PM
AVS Special Member
 
greenland's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 5,203
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 78 Post(s)
Liked: 189
Rogo, simply by leaving Plasma lovers only a choice of OLED or LCD for their next purchases. There should be plenty of Plasma owners ready to purchase a new TV each year from here on out. If the vast majority of them do not purchase OLED sets, then OLED will not take off. Plasmas sold in the millions each year, through the three remaining companies that still made them. Now they are going to no longer make them, so those millions of consumers coming on line each year, have to purchase something else. For Plasma lovers, the choice should be OLED. That sales niche is essential for OLED to gain a strong sales foundation at the outset.

Last edited by greenland; 09-05-2014 at 04:15 PM.
greenland is offline  
post #78 of 199 Old 09-05-2014, 08:03 PM
AVS Special Member
 
fafrd's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Posts: 4,078
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 14 Post(s)
Liked: 707
Quote:
Originally Posted by greenland View Post
Rogo, simply by leaving Plasma lovers only a choice of OLED or LCD for their next purchases. There should be plenty of Plasma owners ready to purchase a new TV each year from here on out. If the vast majority of them do not purchase OLED sets, then OLED will not take off. Plasmas sold in the millions each year, through the three remaining companies that still made them. Now they are going to no longer make them, so those millions of consumers coming on line each year, have to purchase something else. For Plasma lovers, the choice should be OLED. That sales niche is essential for OLED to gain a strong sales foundation at the outset.
I'm not sure there are millions of consumers coming online each year that were buying plasmas.


But regardless, those consumers who might have purchased a 65" 1080p plasma will now have to settle for a 55" 1080p OLED (or if they were in the market for a 55"1080p plasma to start with, they will need to spend about twice as much).
fafrd is offline  
post #79 of 199 Old 09-06-2014, 03:03 AM
AVS Addicted Member
 
rogo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 1999
Location: Stop making curved screens
Posts: 30,347
Mentioned: 2 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 284 Post(s)
Liked: 598
Quote:
Originally Posted by greenland View Post
Rogo, simply by leaving Plasma lovers only a choice of OLED or LCD for their next purchases. There should be plenty of Plasma owners ready to purchase a new TV each year from here on out. If the vast majority of them do not purchase OLED sets, then OLED will not take off. Plasmas sold in the millions each year, through the three remaining companies that still made them. Now they are going to no longer make them, so those millions of consumers coming on line each year, have to purchase something else. For Plasma lovers, the choice should be OLED. That sales niche is essential for OLED to gain a strong sales foundation at the outset.
Panasonic stopped making plasmas more than a year ago. The people who would've bought them just moved on to LCD.

I think you have some confusion about who bought plasma, btw. A portion of plasma sales -- 10-20%? -- went to us videophiles. The rest were sold to people who wanted a cheap TV that made a good picture. Emphasis on cheap. None of the latter group is shopping OLED, at least not for several years.

Much of the other group isn't in the market for a TV in any given year. You can't sustain OLEDs growth on us. There isn't enough blood in that stone.
UltraBlack likes this.

There is no difference in HDMI cables. If you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working. (Oh, and plasma didn't die because of logistics problems, nor does OLED ship in big boxes because it comes from Korea.)
rogo is online now  
post #80 of 199 Old 09-06-2014, 06:09 AM
Advanced Member
 
slacker711's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 673
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 89 Post(s)
Liked: 143
Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo View Post
Panasonic stopped making plasmas more than a year ago. The people who would've bought them just moved on to LCD.

I think you have some confusion about who bought plasma, btw. A portion of plasma sales -- 10-20%? -- went to us videophiles. The rest were sold to people who wanted a cheap TV that made a good picture. Emphasis on cheap. None of the latter group is shopping OLED, at least not for several years.
It will be interesting to see whether the $3500 OLED can outsell the F8500 models on Amazon.
slacker711 is online now  
post #81 of 199 Old 09-06-2014, 06:10 AM
AVS Special Member
 
greenland's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 5,203
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 78 Post(s)
Liked: 189
If lots of Kuro owners who have been waiting for something better to come along, do not take the plunge on OLED 4K in the next year, provided it does not turn out to have some serious technical defects, then nothing will ever satisfy them. That is the low hanging fruit for LG. If they can't grab that, then they are going to face a daunting task selling enough OLED 4K units to capture enough market share from the much larger LCD pool of LCD owners who have never cared for Plasma displays.

Last edited by greenland; 09-06-2014 at 06:18 AM.
greenland is offline  
post #82 of 199 Old 09-06-2014, 07:41 AM
AVS Addicted Member
 
Ken Ross's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: N.Y.
Posts: 24,410
Mentioned: 4 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1279 Post(s)
Liked: 1434
So much of OLED's success (aside from price) will depend on how LG markets this as well as product placement within the stores. Visibility and flashy signs...LOOK AT ME!
Ken Ross is offline  
post #83 of 199 Old 09-06-2014, 11:45 AM
AVS Special Member
 
greenland's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 5,203
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 78 Post(s)
Liked: 189
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ken Ross View Post
So much of OLED's success (aside from price) will depend on how LG markets this as well as product placement within the stores. Visibility and flashy signs...LOOK AT ME!
They should put Mariachi Bands in commercials and in every store, singing OLED OLED OLED. First you have to get the attention of consumers, and then you have to let Best Buy employees know that they actually have the product in stock.
Ken Ross likes this.
greenland is offline  
post #84 of 199 Old 09-06-2014, 11:59 AM
AVS Special Member
 
fafrd's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Posts: 4,078
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 14 Post(s)
Liked: 707
Quote:
Originally Posted by greenland View Post
If lots of Kuro owners who have been waiting for something better to come along, do not take the plunge on OLED 4K in the next year, provided it does not turn out to have some serious technical defects, then nothing will ever satisfy them. That is the low hanging fruit for LG. If they can't grab that, then they are going to face a daunting task selling enough OLED 4K units to capture enough market share from the much larger LCD pool of LCD owners who have never cared for Plasma displays.

First, if I was a Kuro owner looking for something better, why would I necessarily but one of the first 4K OLEDs as opposed to nursing my Kuro along for another year to see what 12 more months may bring? I might get flat, I'd certainly get pricing that is lower by 33% (and maybe even as much as 50%), and I would probably get improvements in one or more of the problem areas that have been reported by early owners such as motion handling.

Second, LGs OLED initiative will not get nearly enough oxygen out of the 'low hanging fruit' you are focusing on (videophiles for class-leading plasma seeking a new TV) to continue through 2015. That may have been an accurate of the phase they were in over the past 12 months when they first introduced the 55EA9800, by now they are facing the 'daunting task' of selling against Flagship LED/LCD TVs to the broader population of video-enthusiasts who have been willing to consider a top-tier TV even if it is based on LED/LCD technology.

Over the next 12 months, if LG cannot succeed to sell large numbers of their OLEDs to customers who otherwise would consider a Samsung HU9000 or HU8550 or a Sony X950B or X900B or a Sharp UD or UQ or a Toshiba L9400U or a Panasonic AX800 or AX900, they will probably not make it to 2016...
fafrd is offline  
post #85 of 199 Old 09-06-2014, 01:40 PM
AVS Addicted Member
 
Ken Ross's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: N.Y.
Posts: 24,410
Mentioned: 4 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1279 Post(s)
Liked: 1434
Quote:
Originally Posted by fafrd View Post
First, if I was a Kuro owner looking for something better, why would I necessarily but one of the first 4K OLEDs as opposed to nursing my Kuro along for another year to see what 12 more months may bring? I might get flat, I'd certainly get pricing that is lower by 33% (and maybe even as much as 50%), and I would probably get improvements in one or more of the problem areas that have been reported by early owners such as motion handling.
Well you're assuming the motion handling of the UHD OLEDs is lacking out of the gate. We don't know that yet. In fact, the only evidence we have right now, is to the contrary. A link to a posted 'hands on mini-review' described the 65" UHD OLED's motion handling as 'excellent'. So LG may have already addressed that. We shall see.

Quote:
Originally Posted by fafrd View Post
Over the next 12 months, if LG cannot succeed to sell large numbers of their OLEDs to customers who otherwise would consider a Samsung HU9000 or HU8550 or a Sony X950B or X900B or a Sharp UD or UQ or a Toshiba L9400U or a Panasonic AX800 or AX900, they will probably not make it to 2016...
And interestingly, that could be one of the best rationales for buying early. I'd rather have an early UHD OLED than none at all.
hobbs47 and dsinger like this.
Ken Ross is offline  
post #86 of 199 Old 09-06-2014, 06:24 PM
Member
 
rohrbaughra's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 117
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 7 Post(s)
Liked: 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ken Ross View Post
So much of OLED's success (aside from price) will depend on how LG markets this as well as product placement within the stores. Visibility and flashy signs...LOOK AT ME!
The OLED I saw at Best Buy was given anything but high visibility. I gave up looking for it and finally had to ask a salesman where it was located.
DRaven72 likes this.
rohrbaughra is offline  
post #87 of 199 Old 09-06-2014, 07:00 PM
Senior Member
 
DRaven72's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: Wolverine Lake, Mi
Posts: 406
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 42 Post(s)
Liked: 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by rohrbaughra View Post
The OLED I saw at Best Buy was given anything but high visibility. I gave up looking for it and finally had to ask a salesman where it was located.
And that's the problem right now. LG needs to start marketing tv commercials during NFL Football season here in the states, NOW. Sales would be taking off before Thanksgiving and don't even start with Black Friday deals. If they have production ramping up, advertising now would be an excellent idea and push OLED more mainstream and hopefully force LCD off the planet earlier.

Cool Beans.
DRaven72 is offline  
post #88 of 199 Old 09-06-2014, 07:12 PM
Advanced Member
 
liltalkm's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2001
Location: Coral Springs,FL, USA
Posts: 571
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 15 Post(s)
Liked: 59
I had to hunt down the set today at BB also.

But, it was worth the hunt. Loved the picture, though I hated the demo loop they had on.

I am now thinking of getting one for my bedroom. Hopefully the 77" 4k model won't be as costly as expected because I think I would like to replace my 65" VT50 in the family room with one.

Lovely set.

Samsung should get on the ball with OLED. Their Evolution kits are perfect for this tech.

Speakers: Martin Logan Montis, EM C2, Dual Depth I Subs, JBL S38 surround (upgrading soon) | Processor: Yamaha CX-A5000 | Amp: Sunfire TGA-5400 | Sources: DirecTV HR34, HTPC, Mac Mini, Oppo BDP-103, PS4, PS3, Xbox One, Wii U | Television: Panasonic 65VT50 | Remote: Logitech Harmony Ultimate
liltalkm is offline  
post #89 of 199 Old 09-06-2014, 10:47 PM
AVS Addicted Member
 
rogo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 1999
Location: Stop making curved screens
Posts: 30,347
Mentioned: 2 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 284 Post(s)
Liked: 598
How many working Kuros do you folks think are in use across the entire U.S.? They were selling pretty much none of them then they slashed prices, sold some, then announced they were going out of the plasma business.... And that was years ago.

I am having trouble believing there were ever 100,000 in use in the U.S. Even if I'm wrong, I'm struggling to believe there are still 100,000 in use in the U.S.

This is noise. It has no effect whatsoever on LG's marketing or the success of OLED.

(Of course, if you own a Kuro, you are a target customer. You should decide for yourself whether to buy this year, next year, 2 years from now, when your Kuro dies, never... That's a perfectly legitimate thing to consider. )
tgm1024 likes this.

There is no difference in HDMI cables. If you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working. (Oh, and plasma didn't die because of logistics problems, nor does OLED ship in big boxes because it comes from Korea.)
rogo is online now  
post #90 of 199 Old 09-07-2014, 11:49 AM
AVS Special Member
 
fafrd's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Posts: 4,078
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 14 Post(s)
Liked: 707
Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo View Post
How many working Kuros do you folks think are in use across the entire U.S.? They were selling pretty much none of them then they slashed prices, sold some, then announced they were going out of the plasma business.... And that was years ago.

I am having trouble believing there were ever 100,000 in use in the U.S. Even if I'm wrong, I'm struggling to believe there are still 100,000 in use in the U.S.

This is noise. It has no effect whatsoever on LG's marketing or the success of OLED.

(Of course, if you own a Kuro, you are a target customer. You should decide for yourself whether to buy this year, next year, 2 years from now, when your Kuro dies, never... That's a perfectly legitimate thing to consider. )
This is helpful to keep things in perspective. If we assume selling an OLED to every single one of the 100,000 US-based AV enthusiast who owns or has ever owned a Kuro is a minimum objective over the next 15 months if LG OLED is going to continue on the path to success, then even an the initial 8000 Gen8-sheet-per-month capacity at M2, that amounts to less than three months of output.

It's the fab underutilization that has killed niche technologies like plasma in the past, it's the fab utilization at volumes of 200,000,000 TVs per year that has allowed LED/LCD to dominate as completely as it has, and it is the fab utilization over the next 15 months that will make or break LGs WOLED initiative.

Maybe they are starting with only a partial ramp-up in M2 to 40,000 OLEDs per month, but they will need to price at the level to move that number of OLEDs quickly.

500,000 TVs per year is only 0.25% of the overall TV market, so it sounds like that should not be a big deal. If we assume that 10% of the TV market is 'premium' TV, then 500,000 TVs is 2.5%, which also sounds like it should not be that big of a deal. And if we assume that 10% of that 10% premium market is large-screen flasgship TVs, then we are talking about 500,000 TV amounting to 25% of that ultra-high-end segment - now that starts to sound like more of a big deal but the reality is that that is the kind of penetration LG needs to be aiming for.

LG has stated an objective to get below 1.5X of premium LED/LCD pricing, so safe to assume that is coming, but I'm not confident that will be enough to get them there.

At 55", you can find top-tier TVs costing $2000, but they are pretty much all 4K. At 1080p, hard to get much above $1500. A 4K OLED for $3000 might have a chance but at 1080P, the price ought to be closer to $2250 (which I believe it will be soon enough - the Macmall price was not fluke).

At 65", except for 'head-in-the-sand' Sony (and possibly also Panasonic), 4K Flagships cost $3000 now, so the 65EC9700 at $7000 or even $6500 or even $6000 is basically a 2X the LED/LCD equivalent and ought to be priced closer to $4500.

77" is such a wildcard it is not worth saying much more about right now. Volumes will be low in any case (as you point out) so more aggressive pricing is not going to move the needle for LG in any case. Maybe they keep a high price to maintain status and cachet for the few customers willing to shell out for such a status symbol. The other TVs in that class today sell for $5000-6500, which mean that if/when LG decides to win all/most customers for those class of premium TVs, they will be pricing in the range of $7500-9750.

And that's all for the 1.5X premium target, which LG knows they need to reach and which they hopefully achieve sooner rather than later. As I said, I'm not sure 1.5X will be enough to get them where they need to go. The poll I ran here on AVS indicated an average premium of 1.35X, but more importantly, even at a premium of 1.1X, only about 80% of respondents voted that they would purchase OLED.

A 1.35X premium would translate to $2000 for 55EC9300, $4000 for 65EC9700, and $8000 for 77EG9700 and I predict that that is more indicative of where LG WOLED pricing will be by mid-2015.

Another perspective on the same question, Rogo - since you were one of the few Forum Members who has seen the 65" Vizio Reference Series at CES this January, if the 65" R and the 55" 55EC9300 were priced at exactly the same price, which would you choose?
fafrd is offline  
Reply OLED Technology and Flat Panels General

User Tag List

Thread Tools
Show Printable Version Show Printable Version
Email this Page Email this Page


Forum Jump: 

Posting Rules  
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off