LG UHD/4K OLED TVs to Hit the Market This Year - Page 9 - AVS Forum
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post #241 of 322 Old 08-29-2014, 09:53 AM
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I earn more than double what I did when I paid $3300 for my Kuro 4 years ago, but I would not even consider spending 5-$6000 on a television, regardless of my income, now. Just a personal choice, but when you look at the 70" options available for under $3,000 I simply cannot justify the massive price increase for the % of improved PQ.

Never mind the savings to be had by simply "suffering" with my Kuro- or another decent HDTV- for a year or two.

Funny, seems my attitude towards a new AVR is very similar after owning my Denon 4311 for 3 1/2 years now...simply not enough out there "new" to support the cost.

Guess I'm losing my zeal for AV!

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post #242 of 322 Old 08-29-2014, 09:57 AM
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The 5-6k you quote would be for the 65 inch OLED I take it. What size was your Kuro for 3-4k?
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post #243 of 322 Old 08-29-2014, 10:03 AM
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^ 60". But it's really all immaterial as I wouldn't pay $6,000 for a 77" television. Again, the image quality improvement over my $1300 PJ wiht a 100" image simply cannot be justified by me for the price. I realize others reach different conclusions and that's fine.

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post #244 of 322 Old 08-29-2014, 10:18 AM
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If I were happy watching my films at 100" already I would never dream of downsizing or even looking at OLED either!
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post #245 of 322 Old 08-29-2014, 11:18 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ken Ross View Post
Fafrd, any thoughts on the pricing of the 77" LG ($25K on BB Canada)? Granted Canada is often higher, but it seems a lot higher than most were projecting.
I dont think many are projecting fafrd's $10,000 starting price.

Personally, I think an opening street price of $15,000 is likely and would be very surprised at anything below $13,000. LG will extract a premium from the early adopters for a panel of this size. It really isnt out of line considering some of the prices on the largest LCD's that Samsung has been selling.

Regardless of where the price starts, I expect prices to fall fairly quickly over the next year as the prices on the 65" and 77" models align. I expect even larger sizes by this time next year (which would then have that early adopter premium built-in).
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post #246 of 322 Old 08-29-2014, 11:25 AM
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Originally Posted by Ken Ross View Post
Do what I did, buy yourself a 4K camcorder and produce your own 4K content. You will be shocked at how high the quality is.
No doubt. But Stanley Kubrick I'm not. Trying to figure the odds that even with the best equipment I could ever film much of anything I'd ever want to watch again and all that comes to mind is the infinite monkey theorem.

Think I'd rather just leave it to the pros.
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post #247 of 322 Old 08-29-2014, 11:44 AM
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Originally Posted by mtbdudex View Post
Thx for feedback, as this will go into my family room to replace my 2005 42" slimline 720p, 50-55" is max I can go there.
I want the OLED PQ and all that, however if 4k takes too long to get "small" sizes then I'll look at the 1080p OLEDs in 2015-mid like you posted.
It's a tight fit into the corner, a 50-55" will take me to the outer bezel of that existing 42" 10 year old set....still works btw.

Yeah, I'd probably plan on starting to audition the 55EC9300 and then waiting for a great deal on that or the 55EA8800 (flat) OLED. Among other things, making a 55" 4K OLED would require making sub-pixels that are about 85% the size of the smalls sub-pixels currently being manufactrured (on the 65" 4K) and who knows what kind of challenges might be involved with that (for very modest gains in terms of sales).


If you go check out the 55EC9300 at a Best Buy and view it from your likely viewing distance, I think you will be pleased. You need to be sitting very close to a 55" screen to see the advantage of 4K... (maybe from the leftmost seat in your couch, for sure from sitting on the sub :-)
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post #248 of 322 Old 08-29-2014, 11:59 AM
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Originally Posted by imagic View Post
I love how fifty people in a mall, who hope to get the right answer so they qualify for a raffle, have somehow collectively become the definitive authority on this topic.
No, not on any topic, just on the specific question I posed of whether average TV watchers could really see any difference between 4K and 1080p on a 55" TV at 9' viewing distance if you set it up as a blind test and controlled for other differences. Now of course that doesn't mean that 49 out of 50 would prefer a UHD TV for themselves if they were buying today at current prices. That's an entirely different question. But just to whether they could see enough difference to identify which one was the 4K set, what more definitive authority could there be except for an even more controlled, larger blind study?

No offense but whether a professional reviewer can see a difference doesn't mean nearly as much to me as whether the average viewer can.
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post #249 of 322 Old 08-29-2014, 12:36 PM
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Originally Posted by ElJimador View Post
No doubt. But Stanley Kubrick I'm not. Trying to figure the odds that even with the best equipment I could ever film much of anything I'd ever want to watch again and all that comes to mind is the infinite monkey theorem.

Think I'd rather just leave it to the pros.
I'm not saying you produce 'feature films', but rather a documentation of your own stuff, travels, family etc.
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post #250 of 322 Old 08-29-2014, 12:41 PM
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Originally Posted by Ken Ross View Post
Fafrd, any thoughts on the pricing of the 77" LG ($25K on BB Canada)? Granted Canada is often higher, but it seems a lot higher than most were projecting.

Yes, a few thoughts:

All those prices (both 20K pounds in the UK and $25K in Canada) are old, they are not new news and so I don't put much weight on them.

Also, these prices are 'leaked' MSRPs or something. The MSRP of the 65EC9700 is $10,000 yet we are pretty sure it will be available for street prices a bit over $6K.

The 'old' view was that the 4K LG OLEDs were going to cost an arm and a leg. Then the 55EC9300 was actually launched at street prices that caught everyone by surprise. Then there were indications of street prices on the 65E9700 that were far lower than anyone had been expecting (and consistent with the aggressive pricing of the EC9300).

So my view is that it is not worth paying any attention to MSRPs and the 'official' prices - these prices are communicated to make consumers believe these OLEDs are high-priced luxury items affordable only by the rich and famous, so that when they can be found at steeply-discounted street prices with reach of everyman, that everyman thinks they are getting a real steal.


Focusing on the facts, here is what I see:

1/ LG has introduced the 55EC9300 at aggressive US street prices ($3000-3500) and every indication is that that launch is going well (far more customers now than there was even three months ago - just look at the traffic on this thread :-)

2/ Indications are that the 65EC9700 will launch at US street prices that are equally as aggressive ($6250-7000) and this will be the next data point that will hopefully materialize soon.

3/ The M2 manufacturing line is now up and running and as it approaches full capacity, it means that LG will have to sell a very large volume of OLEDs (relatively to the past 9 months). We are talking about over 4000 55" OLEDs per day!!!!

4/ LG has probed the market elasticity of pricing for 55" 1080p OLEDs over the past 9 months and discovered that in the pricing range between $2000 and $3500, they can drive significant increase in demand in the US market - and that pricing range is consistent with the pre-release street pricing that has been leaked for the 65EC9700 (half as many 65" panels per sheet = double the price). Assuming there is no 77"-specific yield problem, a sub $10,000 street price for the 77EG9700 (or 77EC9800 :-) would be consistent with per-sheet revenue being generated by the 55EC9300 and 65EC9700.

5/ The 'official' pricing being posted now is just for show and to keep LGs options open (and to generate surprise from the marketplace when true street pricing is actually released close to launch time) and so I can think of only three reasons that actual launch prices here in the US are anywhere close t these $20K+ numbers:

a/ the 77EG9700/77EC9800 is not really ready or prime time and LG doesn't really want any number of consumers to purchase them until a follow-on is introduced (2015?)

b/ LG is selling all of their M2 capacity based on sales of the 55EC9300 and 65EC9700, doesn't really need to sell any 77EG9700/77EC9800 to absorb fab capacity, and so wants to extract more margin and a 'luxery tax' from those few consumers ready to pony up for the biggest and best TV in the world (which would be completely bone-headed at this early stage of the market, in my view)

c/ there is some 77"-specific yield problem that truly makes the 77EG9700/77EC9800 much more expensive to manufacture than 3 55EC9300s of 1.5 65EC9700s - LG really does want to sell them but cannot afford to do so at prices consistent with those of the smaller panels (a nuance on reason a/ above).


I know it's tough, Ken - you don't know if you'll be buying this year or next :-) All indications from the Tea Leaves look promising, but only LG knows the true situation and so we'll need to sit tight and see how it all unfolds. If the 65EC9700 does actually launch at the pre-release pricing that has been indicated, that would be very positive. And continued uncertainly and FUD regarding the pricing of the 77EG9700/77EC9800 until then is nothing to be concerned about and is probably even a positive (meaning LG is keeping the possibility of a surprise before Christmas alive :-)
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post #251 of 322 Old 08-29-2014, 12:53 PM
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Originally Posted by Ken Ross View Post
I'm not saying you produce 'feature films', but rather a documentation of your own stuff, travels, family etc.
Of course. I knew what you meant, I'm just saying I'd have little to no interest in watching anything of that sort that I shot myself. Home movies are boring to me in general (even in 4K) and nobody's home movies are more boring to me than my own. After, I've already seen it, and honestly my life isn't really that interesting to begin with.
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post #252 of 322 Old 08-29-2014, 12:54 PM
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Originally Posted by slacker711 View Post
I dont think many are projecting fafrd's $10,000 starting price.

Personally, I think an opening street price of $15,000 is likely and would be very surprised at anything below $13,000. LG will extract a premium from the early adopters for a panel of this size. It really isnt out of line considering some of the prices on the largest LCD's that Samsung has been selling.

Regardless of where the price starts, I expect prices to fall fairly quickly over the next year as the prices on the 65" and 77" models align. I expect even larger sizes by this time next year (which would then have that early adopter premium built-in).

That's old thinking and doesn't apply to LGs situation of introducing an entirely new class of technology to the mainstream marketplace and needing to sell a soon-to-arrive tsunami of product coming off of the M2 line.

Now, the one caveat is the size of the 77" TV market - if it is miniscule, LG may have concluded that it won't make much of a dent in their sales objectives in any case, and so the 77EG9700/7EC9800 is 'for show' and bragging-rights only (like the 120" Vizio R Series or the 105" Samsung S9). If this is the case, then the 77" will be priced accordingly (meaning only for the deep-pocketed fringe element or corporations that need to show off).

But 'extracting an early-adopter premium' from any meaningful volume of customers for their new 77" OLED this year would be about the most bone-headed thing LG could do at this stage of their 'true' launch (and so far, they have proven that they are much more astute than that, based on the manner in which they have launched the 55EC9300 and are teed up to launch the 65EC9700).
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post #253 of 322 Old 08-29-2014, 12:58 PM
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Originally Posted by fafrd View Post
Yes, a few thoughts:

All those prices (both 20K pounds in the UK and $25K in Canada) are old, they are not new news and so I don't put much weight on them.

Also, these prices are 'leaked' MSRPs or something. The MSRP of the 65EC9700 is $10,000 yet we are pretty sure it will be available for street prices a bit over $6K.

The 'old' view was that the 4K LG OLEDs were going to cost an arm and a leg. Then the 55EC9300 was actually launched at street prices that caught everyone by surprise. Then there were indications of street prices on the 65E9700 that were far lower than anyone had been expecting (and consistent with the aggressive pricing of the EC9300).

So my view is that it is not worth paying any attention to MSRPs and the 'official' prices - these prices are communicated to make consumers believe these OLEDs are high-priced luxury items affordable only by the rich and famous, so that when they can be found at steeply-discounted street prices with reach of everyman, that everyman thinks they are getting a real steal.


Focusing on the facts, here is what I see:

1/ LG has introduced the 55EC9300 at aggressive US street prices ($3000-3500) and every indication is that that launch is going well (far more customers now than there was even three months ago - just look at the traffic on this thread :-)

2/ Indications are that the 65EC9700 will launch at US street prices that are equally as aggressive ($6250-7000) and this will be the next data point that will hopefully materialize soon.

3/ The M2 manufacturing line is now up and running and as it approaches full capacity, it means that LG will have to sell a very large volume of OLEDs (relatively to the past 9 months). We are talking about over 4000 55" OLEDs per day!!!!

4/ LG has probed the market elasticity of pricing for 55" 1080p OLEDs over the past 9 months and discovered that in the pricing range between $2000 and $3500, they can drive significant increase in demand in the US market - and that pricing range is consistent with the pre-release street pricing that has been leaked for the 65EC9700 (half as many 65" panels per sheet = double the price). Assuming there is no 77"-specific yield problem, a sub $10,000 street price for the 77EG9700 (or 77EC9800 :-) would be consistent with per-sheet revenue being generated by the 55EC9300 and 65EC9700.

5/ The 'official' pricing being posted now is just for show and to keep LGs options open (and to generate surprise from the marketplace when true street pricing is actually released close to launch time) and so I can think of only three reasons that actual launch prices here in the US are anywhere close t these $20K+ numbers:

a/ the 77EG9700/77EC9800 is not really ready or prime time and LG doesn't really want any number of consumers to purchase them until a follow-on is introduced (2015?)

b/ LG is selling all of their M2 capacity based on sales of the 55EC9300 and 65EC9700, doesn't really need to sell any 77EG9700/77EC9800 to absorb fab capacity, and so wants to extract more margin and a 'luxery tax' from those few consumers ready to pony up for the biggest and best TV in the world (which would be completely bone-headed at this early stage of the market, in my view)

c/ there is some 77"-specific yield problem that truly makes the 77EG9700/77EC9800 much more expensive to manufacture than 3 55EC9300s of 1.5 65EC9700s - LG really does want to sell them but cannot afford to do so at prices consistent with those of the smaller panels (a nuance on reason a/ above).


I know it's tough, Ken - you don't know if you'll be buying this year or next :-) All indications from the Tea Leaves look promising, but only LG knows the true situation and so we'll need to sit tight and see how it all unfolds. If the 65EC9700 does actually launch at the pre-release pricing that has been indicated, that would be very positive. And continued uncertainly and FUD regarding the pricing of the 77EG9700/77EC9800 until then is nothing to be concerned about and is probably even a positive (meaning LG is keeping the possibility of a surprise before Christmas alive :-)
Fafrd, I like your thinking, always have.
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post #254 of 322 Old 08-29-2014, 01:03 PM
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Fafrd has to be an engineer, or someone who deals with numbers regularly. One of the most analytical posters I've ever seen. Hard to argue with someone who brings up numbers!
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post #255 of 322 Old 08-29-2014, 01:32 PM
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Originally Posted by fafrd View Post
That's old thinking and doesn't apply to LGs situation of introducing an entirely new class of technology to the mainstream marketplace and needing to sell a soon-to-arrive tsunami of product coming off of the M2 line.

Now, the one caveat is the size of the 77" TV market - if it is miniscule, LG may have concluded that it won't make much of a dent in their sales objectives in any case, and so the 77EG9700/7EC9800 is 'for show' and bragging-rights only (like the 120" Vizio R Series or the 105" Samsung S9). If this is the case, then the 77" will be priced accordingly (meaning only for the deep-pocketed fringe element or corporations that need to show off).

But 'extracting an early-adopter premium' from any meaningful volume of customers for their new 77" OLED this year would be about the most bone-headed thing LG could do at this stage of their 'true' launch (and so far, they have proven that they are much more astute than that, based on the manner in which they have launched the 55EC9300 and are teed up to launch the 65EC9700).
LG gave the UK pricing for the 65" as 5999 pounds and the 77" as 19999 pounds at the end of June. So no, I dont think that this is old thinking. They were clearly planning on extracting a substantial premium for the 77" model at the launch. As I said, I expect they will bring down pricing over the course of the year and especially so after they launch an even larger 2015 model.

I do think that the reason for that is the size of the 77" market. It will be miniscule at any of these prices and much less price sensitive than the 55" and 65" models.
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post #256 of 322 Old 08-29-2014, 01:35 PM
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Fafrd is really hitting the marketing nail on the head. Even if marketing wan't his primary target. Now it would be very interesting if LG decided to offer a 70 inch to supplement the demand for the current 65". Granted that 77" would be a very limited audience but the move from 65" to 70" is a step that many are already taking and several LCD options are already being explored by consumers.
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post #257 of 322 Old 08-29-2014, 01:39 PM
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Originally Posted by slacker711 View Post
LG gave the UK pricing for the 65" as 5999 pounds and the 77" as 19999 pounds at the end of June. So no, I dont think that this is old thinking. They were clearly planning on extracting a substantial premium for the 77" model at the launch. As I said, I expect they will bring down pricing over the course of the year and especially so after they launch an even larger 2015 model.

I do think that the reason for that is the size of the 77" market. It will be miniscule at any of these prices and much less price sensitive than the 55" and 65" models.

Really not that much of a gap in what we are saying.

I've already stated that I believe the prices that have been leaked up to now have been artificially high to allow LG to maintain flexibility.

You see the prices coming down rapidly.

So really, it will come down to whether LG offers the same type of pre-release discounted street pricing on the 77EG9700/77EC980 as they are apparently planning to do with the 65EC9700 (and have already done with the 55EC9300).

If the 77" TV market in the US is as miniscule as you believe, it's almost an irrelevant question anyway (except of course for Ken and a for other AVSers :-)
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post #258 of 322 Old 08-29-2014, 01:46 PM
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Originally Posted by andy sullivan View Post
Fafrd is really hitting the marketing nail on the head. Even if marketing wan't his primary target. Now it would be very interesting if LG decided to offer a 70 inch to supplement the demand for the current 65". Granted that 77" would be a very limited audience but the move from 65" to 70" is a step that many are already taking and several LCD options are already being explored by consumers.
I was surprised to see that Costco has a total of 3 80" TVs on display (Vizio, Samsung, Sharp) in my area - I see that as meaningful and a possibly indication that the US market for 75-80" TVs may be more significant this year than some assume.

The move to 4K makes more sense on large screens than on small screens, and we all know how much the entire industry is aligning behind the 4K initiative...
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^given that the divorce rate is on the rise, you are possibly right....
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post #260 of 322 Old 08-29-2014, 02:29 PM
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I was surprised to see that Costco has a total of 3 80" TVs on display (Vizio, Samsung, Sharp) in my area - I see that as meaningful and a possibly indication that the US market for 75-80" TVs may be more significant this year than some assume.

The move to 4K makes more sense on large screens than on small screens, and we all know how much the entire industry is aligning behind the 4K initiative...
I was in my local Costco this week and they had two different 80" Vizio models, two different Samsung 75" models, one 70" Sony and one 80" Sharp. A nicely priced 70" 4k OLED would be my sweet spot.
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Btw is LG going to market this thing or is it just going to let Samsung kick its butt with their "revolutionary" curved led, I can already feel my annoyance rising from all the ads Samsung will be bombarding NFL fans with.
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post #262 of 322 Old 08-29-2014, 05:20 PM
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Fafrd has to be an engineer, or someone who deals with numbers regularly. One of the most analytical posters I've ever seen. Hard to argue with someone who brings up numbers!
Fafrd used to work for Vizio few months ago, I think he works for LG now.......

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post #263 of 322 Old 08-29-2014, 05:22 PM
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Fafrd used to work for Vizio few months ago, I think he works for LG now.......

Working on putting together a merger :-)

No doubt those are the two companies that have been the 2014 innovation leaders. Coming from 2013, the TV market is likely to look pretty different by 2016...

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Working on putting together a merger :-)

No doubt those are the two companies that have been the 2014 innovation leaders. Coming from 2013m the TV market is likely to look pretty different by 2016...
Yay. Sounds good.
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post #265 of 322 Old 08-29-2014, 10:07 PM
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Who wants to start THe Official Ken Ross's 77EG9700 LG 2014 77" OLED Thread?
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post #266 of 322 Old 08-30-2014, 06:44 AM
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Originally Posted by barth2k View Post
Btw is LG going to market this thing or is it just going to let Samsung kick its butt with their "revolutionary" curved led, I can already feel my annoyance rising from all the ads Samsung will be bombarding NFL fans with.
Samsung clearly saw a window of opportunity with the curve. That's what the company sells, instead of better display technology. The moment I figured it out was the moment I started to fear for OLED's future.
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post #267 of 322 Old 08-30-2014, 06:59 AM
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Originally Posted by barth2k View Post
Btw is LG going to market this thing or is it just going to let Samsung kick its butt with their "revolutionary" curved led, I can already feel my annoyance rising from all the ads Samsung will be bombarding NFL fans with.
Why even waste the money marketing. You walk into best buy and see these massive Sony and Samsung experience set ups that are a huge draw.

OLEDs are going to be successful b.c of word of mouth and hopefully knowledge employees. Granted when I asked about OLED at a store recently they immediately said, "what about 4k LEDs"

No commercial is going to hit home with consumers. I really hope OLED can come down in price or it will without question meet the same fate as plasma. It has been proven that the top 2% cannot keep a technology alive.
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post #268 of 322 Old 08-30-2014, 12:47 PM
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Years ago, I purchase a brand new 52" Toshiba rear projection TV that was "HD ready".

A year later the HDMI cable entered into the market for HD TV's. Lo and behold, my HD TV did not have an HDMI connection. So much for "HD ready".

While watching the Flat Panel Shootout this year, Joe Kane and others mentioned that the big problem with UHD/4K is the connectivity. The HDMI cables will not be able to carry across what 4K's need to reach their potential. Therefore, another transport will need to be developed once the UHD/4K standards are finally set.

I don't want to be in the same position as I was with the Toshiba "HD Ready" TV and that is to purchase an expensive 4K OLED now and a year later UDH standards are set which includes a new way to connect to the 4K leaving me out, once again, resenting the fact that I might have to purchase all over again.


Which brings me to my question.

Are videophiles a little premature in purchasing a 4K/UHD TV at this time and should wait for the dust to settle?



m
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post #269 of 322 Old 08-30-2014, 01:01 PM
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Originally Posted by imagic View Post
Samsung clearly saw a window of opportunity with the curve. That's what the company sells, instead of better display technology. The moment I figured it out was the moment I started to fear for OLED's future.

Next time you are with a Samsung rep, Mark, ask them what they think about OLED - the response is likely to fan your fears :-(

Samsung is a much bigger marketing machine than LG, and they know how to flex that muscle...

Hopefully LG has the smarts to understand the situation they are in and continues to price the new OLEDs they are introducing accordingly...

LG needs to win a large number of customers for OLED now as quickly as possible.
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post #270 of 322 Old 08-30-2014, 01:06 PM
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Rogo,

do you lend any credence to LG's claims to have achieved 90% yields on the IGZO backplane as early as April: http://olednet.com/eng/sub02.php?mid...uid=117&ctg1=3

"As yield rate of oxide TFT regarded as an obstacle for yield rate so far has recently come to 90%, total yield rate is shown up to 70%." (dated 3/31/14)

For me, the pricing we are seeing being offered on the 55" and 65" WOLEDs can only be explained by LGs having addressed these early yield challenges (or at least having very high confidence that these issues will be addressed as M2 comes up to speed).

As far as you comment stating that "LG will need to repattern the pixels for 4K or else the amount of fill on these sets is likely to be very unsatisfying" I absolutely agree and this is one of the major factors I will be looking for as the first 4K screen materialize. The interpixel spacing and screen door effect on the 55EC9300 is noticeably worse than on a 55" LED/LCD - if that spacing has not been reduced by at least 50% on the 4K screens, it could be a problem and a further reason to hold off for another generation or two.

I suppose this thread has morphed into the 'LG WOLED Technology Advancements Thread', which is fine by me. The sticky OLED Technology Advancements Thread is general and longer-term and there are some near-term technology advancements that LG needs to be making and that we will hopefully be getting evidence of shortly...
...like HDR. ;-)
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