Originally Posted by revgen1
LG is expanding their OLED production line in 2017, so prices will come down quite a bit in late 2017 - early 2018.
Right, the interim production increase will help. But I doubt it does anything but continue the cost / price curve we've already seen. Late 2018, into 2019 we may see a legitimate downward kink in the curve from the "10G" fab.
Originally Posted by Vader1
I don't have anything much to add, just that I really enjoyed reading and agree with everything.
I wonder how you feel about that, Rogo? Do you think RGB OLED still has a chance to make it to large displays, or will we be stuck with WOLED only for TV's from here on out? (I say "stuck" but I don't mean that too harshly as LG's WOLED method has proven it's more than capable of great PQ)
Right now, there exists no technique to mass produce large
RGB OLED displays. The failure of ink jet appears to be that while the machines have finally been made possible, the soluble blue OLED material that lasts more than weeks has not. I'm not sure that's even solved. I'm not sure some FrankenHybrid with soluble red and green and insoluble blue that's vapor deposited makes any economic sense.
But I'll point out again the history of good old LCD. When they started scaling it to TV sizes, it couldn't work. It took days to make a single display because of an issue with distributing the liquid crystal. Then the problem was solved and it took seconds to do that step. While the OLED making problems seem impossible today, maybe they won't in the future. Maybe graphene masks will be so rigid that it'll be possible to make a non-sagging mask big enough for large displays (I don't believe mask scanning will ever work for large displays in mass production). Maybe some method of suspending traditional masks will become real. Maybe UDC will develop a soluble blue that works. Who knows?
Originally Posted by adrummingdude
True. However, I see this as a prediction that large panel TV's will become increasingly a product for the wealthy enthusiast, and therefore prices, due to limited production scale, will actually increase.
That's a real threat down the road.
Originally Posted by video_analysis
Now you're trying to make us G6 buyers feel like chumps. Rogo.
I look at it as funding the R&D of the only viable company/tech that has the potential to replace LCD.
I think G6 buyers get great value for what they're seeking. It's not like you are being fooled by not being aware of the B6. You know what you wanted and you bought it. Good for you.
Some guys are going to be very upset about your QLED forecast, but I will take your track record over theirs, which is based on grasping for straws.
I'd love to be wrong here, but...
Originally Posted by MoggSquad
This topic made me ponder my tv purchased going back just over 20 years when I was 16 years old:
1994 - $339 - 25" Sharp TV
2005 - $550 - 34" 1080i CRT tv - forget the vendor but it was DishNetwork branded. Was on clearance
2007 - $1700 - 60" Sony 60a3000 rear projection tv
2012 - $1750 - 60" Panasonic Plasma ST60
Following that trend here is my next target in the next 1-3 months:
2016 - $1750 - $1850 55" LGC6P OLED OR $2300-2500 for the 65" version if it falls that far.
$1750 seems to be the sweet spot for the best bang for your buck tv's the past 10 years.
Interesting history. I bought a 26" Mitsubishi for like $800 in 1989, a 60" Mitsubishi projection set for $3500 in 1998 or so, a series of plasmas in the early 2000s that kept going back to the retailer or mfr. ($3000-5000), a 2006 50" Panasonic plasma for $2000, a 2012 65" Panasonic plasma for $3000. Seems like the sweet spot for me was $800-5000!
Originally Posted by sytech
As many here have said OLED is not intended to be a mainstream product. QLED will be mainstream.
When? 2030? No time anyone at all should care about.
Originally Posted by scott967
If the mainstream market moves towards the 7" form factor, then the 55"+ market will be mainly for videophiles with dedicated media rooms. Maybe some space for larger display for sports viewing which tends to be more communal, but even there I wouldn't be surprised if in the mainstream everyone is watching their own screen.
In a way your mainstream of the future is now. I see people in sports bars looking at their phones. Or at live sports for that matter.
Originally Posted by CHASLS2
I'm not touching OLED anytime soon. Needs to get better and cheaper and in a 60" size.
Better than what? It's so much better than any plasma ever built that I won't waste time listening to people who feel it isn't. Ditto LCD. That it isn't 60 inches may matter for you (and many others). I expect size diversity in the future.
Originally Posted by slacker711
One comment on QLED's. I have a feeling that Samsung is going to label their quantum dot color filter TV's with LED backlights as QLED's. They have never had any compunction about pushing the boundaries on labels and their comments over the last few months have trended in this direction.
Also, while I agree that OLED's have yet to match the cost structure of FALD LCD's at Vizio and the like, I think they did hit a significant milestone this year by matching the price of Samsung's lone FALD. Sony continues to be in their world when it comes to pricing and it shows with their unit sales.
Yes, I agree Samsung will do this. I don't think anyone will be fooled. If they do this, by the way, it will mean one of two things (1) they don't believe emissive quantum dot will ever exist or (2) they think they can brand that with some other name down the road. They would poison the well of "quantum dot", heck they already have.
Originally Posted by marathonnutcase
That article was as thoughtful, entertaining, and useful as any I've read, and why I keep coming back to AVS Forum. Thanks rogo
for taking the time to write it.
You're most welcome.
Originally Posted by cah95046
What difference does it make what technology is used (or called) if it produces a picture that consumers like.
My predictions for 65 in in the next year (or two).
4k is already available below $1000.
QDEF based 1000 + nit will push below $1000 (the higher brightness will be visible at Walmart)
QDCF based 2000 - 4000 nit will push below $2000 (the higher brightness will be visible at Bestbuy)
FALD and OLED will dominate >$2000 videophile market (the deeper blacks, beyond that achievable with 5000:1 NCR, require watching in total darkness to be appreciated)
I agree that OLED won't dominate in 65 for the next year or two. I don't tend to believe that eye-searing LCD will keep it at bay for too many more years in the $1000+ segment. For a while, yes. Forever? No.
Originally Posted by sytech
Nope. The OLED crew here repeatedly confirmed LG invested millions in OLED to remain a premium niche market in the large format segment. The mere mention that LG was releasing QDCF as an alternative led to mass hysteria. OLED will definitely start dominating the small form factor segment as cost is now comparable and QLED and MicroLED is not yet ready to take over.
Apple has MicroLED in development. For small displays. Maybe.
I doubt it ever becomes a TV, even if it somehow becomes a watch or smartphone screen.
Originally Posted by Cam1977
So Qled and microled aren't ready why, what are your insiders telling you that the rest of us don't know...I mean I don't want to cause mass hysteria amongst the oled crowd...
No one can make them. In fact, neither has ever really been demonstrated in a high-frame-rate (read 30), full-color (read 16,000+) display.
Neither matters in TV this decade, if ever.
You can't sell what you can't make. And these can't be made.
Everyone who believed in the false grails of FED, SED, etc. failed to grasp this.