OLED Pricing, The Death of the $3000 TV, and why the future is now - AVS Forum | Home Theater Discussions And Reviews
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post #1 of 248 Old 10-24-2016, 02:12 PM - Thread Starter
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OLED Pricing, The Death of the $3000 TV, and why the future is now

I am noticing on the pricing side of this forum that the price of a 65-inch LG OLED at retail is now below $3000 (from some retailers, at least some of the time).

Without discussing price, per se, and who you should buy from, it's important to understand this is a critical milestone in the development of OLED TVs. For the first part of this decade, it was a given that you could pretty much buy the best TV on the market for $3000 at 65 inches. You may have had to shop and you couldn't often do it at Best Buy, but you could do it.

What that meant was videophile-level picture quality in the largest generally sold size was $3000. Within a few years, two things changed, though. First, the availability of larger sizes became much greater. 70s first, then 75s. Even some 78-80s are around. Second, and more importantly, those $3000 TVs vanished. This wasn't a scheme by mfrs. to make more money -- Sony sells so few of those $5000 sets of theirs it's hard to understand why they make them at all -- but rather due to the death of plasma.

Arguably, plasma died 2 years to soon, given how long it took OLED to get to something resembling price parity. Fortunately, it's now there. I could -- without hesitation -- recommend that a friend go buy an LG 65 B series for $3000. It's likely going to be a very satisfying 5-10 year TV for most people.

But some things have become apparent based on LG's recent pricing action. This is a company without a meaningful upgrade in production capacity coming online for close to 2 years (when the new fab is producing). It has sales targets but a very finite unit limit. And yet it is seeking lower prices -- through promotion, retailer spiffs, et al. -- to find a way to "sell out".

That Panasonic is essentially out of the TV business and Samsung no longer sells plasmas should tell you all you need to know about how great that $3000 flagship market was, i.e. it wasn't so good anyone is still in it. That LG is not even pausing at $3000 for a 65-inch TV isn't surprising. The market up there is small, can't satisfy even LG's existing capacity (assuming high yields) and won't absorb even a fraction of what LG has on tap.

TV is not smartphones and LG is not Apple. There is no reason to spend more for most consumers and no technological change that justifies switching to the equivalent of a $650 smartphone (had Apple not invented the popular smartphone, they could never launch a $650 iPhone now either... but let's not explain why they still can or how their very invention created $99 smartphones, that's another post). None is coming. Many of you thought 3D was -- so did TV makers. It's already come and gone. Many of you like HDR -- so do TV makers. It will be profoundly less of an upgrade catalyst than even 3D was (never mind that 3D was in most TVs and HDR won't even get there for years, if ever).

There is nothing wrong with liking these video upgrades at all. But they don't move or make markets. In fact, TV sales have been falling for years (since 2010-11). That's important to understand because even though some of you might subscribe to conspiracy theories about the economy, it bottomed out globally in 2009-10 and has been solid since. The latest data from 2016 shows declines in TV sales and even optimistic forecasts out to 2020 suggests the era of 250+ million TV sales annually may be over -- or at least rare.

Whether or not TV is in a full secular decline like PCs, though, it's growth era is over. The Chinese market continues to show some positives, particularly with upgrading to bigger screens. No surprise when you can buy a 65-inch 4K set for $900! But we've reached a near end state, that looks like this:

1) Overall TV sales are flat/down/up a bit
2) 4K and smart tech are booming, but the latter may be maxing out in many regions
3) Sizes continue to trend upward a bit, but the market for 65+ inch TVs continues to be infinitesimal
4) Prices keep falling, arguably below levels once considered "floor prices", beneath which TVs wouldn't fall.

Looking ahead, we will see the bottom end of the price curve, something resembling a top end of the size curve and possibly a TV market that trends below 200 million units globally forever. Too many macro trends are happening with millennials globally that are pushing video consumption everywhere but the living room. These include the slow (but real) death of multichannel TV bundles. While I don't want to rule out that in 50 years, the world has 100-inch TVs in every home, I'd point out we also can't rule out that most of the world's coastal cities will be partly underwater by then.

For OLED fans, this is not bad news, however. It means LG's hope of carving out most of the upper end of the TV market will require lower pricing than currently exists. I'm fairly sure I've bandied numbers like this before, but it's worth again stating that the 55s will eventually be <$1000 at retail. The 65s will eventually be <$2000. Those prices might start to become visible soon; they seem unlikely to wait longer than the arrival of the 2018-9 models off LG's new fab. I doubt those prices are a bottom, especially with the sheer number of Chinese vendors that will produce LCDs with 4K and HDR and make $1000 at 65-inches a global reality.

I personally no longer believe one should wait before buying an OLED. I also personally will note that my TV is not yet at the age where I like to replace it and won't be until 2018. (Never mind that I can't currently accommodate a bigger set and might be able to by then, which would make this once-every-6-year purchase easier to optimize.) Your mileage may vary, of course, but at least you don't have to worry about the buyer's remorse of having spent thousands extra for "just one year more" of OLED. You will see next year's TV for less money, but not so much less that you risk "chump syndrome."

The closing thought here is on a successor to OLED. It's worth understanding that every pretender flat panel technology advertises itself as "cheaper than the thing that came before once we achieve scale". This claim has been made for OLED for more than a decade. Today, OLED is still not cheaper than LCD. It's not really even cheaper than full array LED backlit LCD, at least not at the only place we care -- retail. Yes, Sony's price is insane but again Sony doesn't make the market. Vizio/LeEco, Hisense, TCL and others make the market. That they don't produce a TV as good as Sony's for half the price isn't a technology problem, it's a "we don't need to" problem. They produce a TV that's pretty damn good or less than half Sony's price.

On an average basis, OLED TVs will still cost more than LCDs in 2020. They are not cheaper, no matter what manufacturing steps and materials are saved. But OLEDs are cheap enough that they will dominate the high end of the market as plasma once did. They will also become very important in the midrange (both price and size-wise) as plasma only did very, very briefly.

There is no room, therefore, for a new technology. To just enter the market in 2020, a quantum-dot emissive display would find it would need to be below $1000 at 55 inches and $2000 at 65. (Perhaps $999/$1999). The mainstream OLEDs will cost less than that but perhaps a "better" display could find some small toe hold at those prices. The QLED would fail anyway because the tsunami of new OLED makers once LG's fab starts producing and driving through the $1000/$2000 barrier will be massive. It might even be massive enough for OLED to win the TV market in the early 2020s (crushing LCD out of the profitable segments, if not most of the unprofitable ones).

For QLED -- or any other technology that's in the lab today -- the advantage will have to come not only in the increasingly irrelevant domain of picture quality (LG is already mainstreaming videophile level images, no one will care about "better" outside of places like this forum) but in manufacturing cost. Perhaps, for example, a QLED can be printed using inkjets and the materials are soluble from day one with 100K hour lives. Someone designs a roll-to-roll printing tech and can maybe even print the backplane. Then you have something special, albeit with its own challenges (lower TVs from $500 to $200 and you don't really grow the market... that's why the floor is actually here on the smaller sizes, there's no sense in selling $99 TVs in most of the world).

There is no reason to believe QLED will be cheap to make. There is less reason to believe something else yet to be invented (in fairness, QLED TV has not been invented so much as theorized) will either. As we head toward 2017, we can safely rule out an OLED successor before of any import 2025. I made similar comments about OLED in the early 2000s and was scoffed out and mocked. But I was correct then and will be correct going forward.*

Enjoy OLEDs. Push LG to make better ones. Encourage Samsung to re-enter the market. Hope the Chinese come soon; they are likely to dominate TV making in the 2020s no matter what happens in Korea. But when it's time to buy, don't worry you're too early. 4K/UHD/sub $3000 are already a sweet spot in the "when to buy" game. I'm personally holding off a bit more, but that's just because of my attitudes on waste, not on when.

-----------


* I was duped in 2013 into thinking I was mistaken and that OLED was rule. LG and Samsung spent a lot of money at CES duping people that year. It wasn't until last year, however, that OLED was really a consumer product and arguably this year that it became a real one. Those dates are very consistent with comments you can dig out of the AVS archives. In short, I wasn't mistaken in 2005 but was in 2013. As the rock legends say, "won't get fooled again."

There's a saying about "everything in moderation". If only it was applied to well, you know...
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post #2 of 248 Old 10-24-2016, 02:23 PM
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LG is expanding their OLED production line in 2017, so prices will come down quite a bit in late 2017 - early 2018.
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post #3 of 248 Old 10-24-2016, 02:31 PM
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I don't have anything much to add, just that I really enjoyed reading and agree with everything. I especially agree with the ending about QLED. QLED is not just come out of no where within 5 years or less and kill off OLED and and LCD (no matter what Samsung or Nanosys claim) like some people think here. OLED and LCD are what we're going to have for a long time and people better get used to it. It's not really a bad thing... at all. I would like to see another RGB OLED though.

I wonder how you feel about that, Rogo? Do you think RGB OLED still has a chance to make it to large displays, or will we be stuck with WOLED only for TV's from here on out? (I say "stuck" but I don't mean that too harshly as LG's WOLED method has proven it's more than capable of great PQ)

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post #4 of 248 Old 10-24-2016, 02:34 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo View Post
Too many macro trends are happening with millennials globally that are pushing video consumption everywhere but the living room.


True. However, I see this as a prediction that large panel TV's will become increasingly a product for the wealthy enthusiast, and therefore prices, due to limited production scale, will actually increase.

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post #5 of 248 Old 10-24-2016, 02:53 PM
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^^The 77" OLED has room to come down in price before any talk of increases begins.

Now you're trying to make us G6 buyers feel like chumps. Rogo. I look at it as funding the R&D of the only viable company/tech that has the potential to replace LCD.

Some guys are going to be very upset about your QLED forecast, but I will take your track record over theirs, which is based on grasping for straws.
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post #6 of 248 Old 10-24-2016, 04:28 PM
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This topic made me ponder my tv purchased going back just over 20 years when I was 16 years old:

1994 - $339 - 25" Sharp TV
2005 - $550 - 34" 1080i CRT tv - forget the vendor but it was DishNetwork branded. Was on clearance
2007 - $1700 - 60" Sony 60a3000 rear projection tv
2012 - $1750 - 60" Panasonic Plasma ST60

Following that trend here is my next target in the next 1-3 months:

2016 - $1750 - $1850 55" LGC6P OLED OR $2300-2500 for the 65" version if it falls that far.

$1750 seems to be the sweet spot for the best bang for your buck tv's the past 10 years.
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post #7 of 248 Old 10-24-2016, 05:27 PM
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As many here have said OLED is not intended to be a mainstream product. QLED will be mainstream.

DON'T ARGUE WITH ME. I AM NEVER WONG.
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post #8 of 248 Old 10-24-2016, 06:00 PM
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If the mainstream market moves towards the 7" form factor, then the 55"+ market will be mainly for videophiles with dedicated media rooms. Maybe some space for larger display for sports viewing which tends to be more communal, but even there I wouldn't be surprised if in the mainstream everyone is watching their own screen.

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post #9 of 248 Old 10-24-2016, 06:25 PM
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I'm not touching OLED anytime soon. Needs to get better and cheaper and in a 60" size.

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post #10 of 248 Old 10-24-2016, 06:37 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sytech View Post
As many here have said OLED is not intended to be a mainstream product. QLED will be mainstream.
QLED hasn't ever made it out of a lab, and OLED has. And anybody who claimed OLED wasn't intended as a mainstream product is fooling themselves because it was and it's becoming more and more of one every year when you consider all of it's applications in smartphones and tablets, and more and more OLED products are being made every single year with Apple joining in next year. QLED is so far behind OLED in development right now it's laughable
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post #11 of 248 Old 10-24-2016, 06:53 PM
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One comment on QLED's. I have a feeling that Samsung is going to label their quantum dot color filter TV's with LED backlights as QLED's. They have never had any compunction about pushing the boundaries on labels and their comments over the last few months have trended in this direction.

Also, while I agree that OLED's have yet to match the cost structure of FALD LCD's at Vizio and the like, I think they did hit a significant milestone this year by matching the price of Samsung's lone FALD. Sony continues to be in their world when it comes to pricing and it shows with their unit sales.
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post #12 of 248 Old 10-24-2016, 07:03 PM
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It's very possible Samsung is just going to call QDCF "QLED" and get away with it, at least 2 articles I've read have done so already but it could just be that the writers are idiots. I would definitely not put it past Samsung to do that themselves though
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post #13 of 248 Old 10-24-2016, 07:49 PM
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Good read. I like these deep cuts.

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While I don't want to rule out that in 50 years, the world has 100-inch TVs in every home, I'd point out we also can't rule out that most of the world's coastal cities will be partly underwater by then.
Way to be a wet blanket man!
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post #14 of 248 Old 10-24-2016, 08:10 PM
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That article was as thoughtful, entertaining, and useful as any I've read, and why I keep coming back to AVS Forum. Thanks rogo for taking the time to write it.
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post #15 of 248 Old 10-24-2016, 09:57 PM
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Originally Posted by Vader1 View Post
It's very possible Samsung is just going to call QDCF "QLED" and get away with it, at least 2 articles I've read have done so already but it could just be that the writers are idiots. I would definitely not put it past Samsung to do that themselves though
What difference does it make what technology is used (or called) if it produces a picture that consumers like.

My predictions for 65 in in the next year (or two).

4k is already available below $1000.

QDEF based 1000 + nit will push below $1000 (the higher brightness will be visible at Walmart)

QDCF based 2000 - 4000 nit will push below $2000 (the higher brightness will be visible at Bestbuy)

FALD and OLED will dominate >$2000 videophile market (the deeper blacks, beyond that achievable with 5000:1 NCR, require watching in total darkness to be appreciated)
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post #16 of 248 Old 10-24-2016, 10:19 PM
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QLED hasn't ever made it out of a lab, and OLED has. And anybody who claimed OLED wasn't intended as a mainstream product is fooling themselves because it was and it's becoming more and more of one every year when you consider all of it's applications in smartphones and tablets, and more and more OLED products are being made every single year with Apple joining in next year. QLED is so far behind OLED in development right now it's laughable
Nope. The OLED crew here repeatedly confirmed LG invested millions in OLED to remain a premium niche market in the large format segment. The mere mention that LG was releasing QDCF as an alternative led to mass hysteria. OLED will definitely start dominating the small form factor segment as cost is now comparable and QLED and MicroLED is not yet ready to take over.

DON'T ARGUE WITH ME. I AM NEVER WONG.
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post #17 of 248 Old 10-24-2016, 10:44 PM
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Nope. The OLED crew here repeatedly confirmed LG invested millions in OLED to remain a premium niche market in the large format segment. The mere mention that LG was releasing QDCF as an alternative led to mass hysteria. OLED will definitely start dominating the small form factor segment as cost is now comparable and QLED and MicroLED is not yet ready to take over.
The OLED crew said? What is that nonsense? You mean like a tiny handful of posters who were really just responding to a thread that you admittedly made to antagonize OLED owners in the LCD forum? And you are painting all OLED owners as well as the intentions of LG and everyone else in OLED manufacturing with that brush? What sense does that make? And it was not not the mention of LG and QDCF that led to this "hysteria" (that again was a select minority of the OLED owners on this forum) but when you added "as OLED fails to reach mass market" unnecessarily to the thread title, at a time when there was unfortunately a war between 2016 OLED and Z9 owners in the LCD forum. Now some of those guys at the time did claim OLED was never intended for mass market, I believe they were mistaken about that and I know you said yourself you thought they were mistaken at the time. Do you actually have any point coming in here now saying "5 OLED guys in a thread I made said OLED wasn't intended for mass market so I guess it wasn't" or is it just to bring up some nonsensical grudge you have for no good reason?
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The OLED crew said? What is that nonsense? You mean like a tiny handful of posters who were really just responding to a thread that you admittedly made to antagonize OLED owners in the LCD forum? And you are painting all OLED owners as well as the intentions of LG and everyone else in OLED manufacturing with that brush? What sense does that make? And it was not not the mention of LG and QDCF that led to this "hysteria" (that again was a select minority of the OLED owners on this forum) but when you added "as OLED fails to reach mass market" unnecessarily to the thread title, at a time when there was unfortunately a war between 2016 OLED and Z9 owners in the LCD forum. Now some of those guys at the time did claim OLED was never intended for mass market, I believe they were mistaken about that and I know you said yourself you thought they were mistaken at the time. Do you actually have any point coming in here now saying "5 OLED guys in a thread I made said OLED wasn't intended for mass market so I guess it wasn't" or is it just to bring up some nonsensical grudge you have for no good reason?

Oh no Sytech is back on the oled thread spitting out truth to us!!!
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post #19 of 248 Old 10-24-2016, 11:08 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sytech View Post
Nope. The OLED crew here repeatedly confirmed LG invested millions in OLED to remain a premium niche market in the large format segment. The mere mention that LG was releasing QDCF as an alternative led to mass hysteria. OLED will definitely start dominating the small form factor segment as cost is now comparable and QLED and MicroLED is not yet ready to take over.
So Qled and microled aren't ready why, what are your insiders telling you that the rest of us don't know...I mean I don't want to cause mass hysteria amongst the oled crowd...
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post #20 of 248 Old 10-24-2016, 11:50 PM - Thread Starter
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Originally Posted by revgen1 View Post
LG is expanding their OLED production line in 2017, so prices will come down quite a bit in late 2017 - early 2018.
Right, the interim production increase will help. But I doubt it does anything but continue the cost / price curve we've already seen. Late 2018, into 2019 we may see a legitimate downward kink in the curve from the "10G" fab.

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I don't have anything much to add, just that I really enjoyed reading and agree with everything.
Thanks.
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I wonder how you feel about that, Rogo? Do you think RGB OLED still has a chance to make it to large displays, or will we be stuck with WOLED only for TV's from here on out? (I say "stuck" but I don't mean that too harshly as LG's WOLED method has proven it's more than capable of great PQ)
Right now, there exists no technique to mass produce large RGB OLED displays. The failure of ink jet appears to be that while the machines have finally been made possible, the soluble blue OLED material that lasts more than weeks has not. I'm not sure that's even solved. I'm not sure some FrankenHybrid with soluble red and green and insoluble blue that's vapor deposited makes any economic sense.

But I'll point out again the history of good old LCD. When they started scaling it to TV sizes, it couldn't work. It took days to make a single display because of an issue with distributing the liquid crystal. Then the problem was solved and it took seconds to do that step. While the OLED making problems seem impossible today, maybe they won't in the future. Maybe graphene masks will be so rigid that it'll be possible to make a non-sagging mask big enough for large displays (I don't believe mask scanning will ever work for large displays in mass production). Maybe some method of suspending traditional masks will become real. Maybe UDC will develop a soluble blue that works. Who knows?

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Originally Posted by adrummingdude View Post
True. However, I see this as a prediction that large panel TV's will become increasingly a product for the wealthy enthusiast, and therefore prices, due to limited production scale, will actually increase.
That's a real threat down the road.

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Originally Posted by video_analysis View Post
Now you're trying to make us G6 buyers feel like chumps. Rogo. I look at it as funding the R&D of the only viable company/tech that has the potential to replace LCD.
I think G6 buyers get great value for what they're seeking. It's not like you are being fooled by not being aware of the B6. You know what you wanted and you bought it. Good for you.
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Some guys are going to be very upset about your QLED forecast, but I will take your track record over theirs, which is based on grasping for straws.
I'd love to be wrong here, but...

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Originally Posted by MoggSquad View Post
This topic made me ponder my tv purchased going back just over 20 years when I was 16 years old:

1994 - $339 - 25" Sharp TV
2005 - $550 - 34" 1080i CRT tv - forget the vendor but it was DishNetwork branded. Was on clearance
2007 - $1700 - 60" Sony 60a3000 rear projection tv
2012 - $1750 - 60" Panasonic Plasma ST60

Following that trend here is my next target in the next 1-3 months:

2016 - $1750 - $1850 55" LGC6P OLED OR $2300-2500 for the 65" version if it falls that far.

$1750 seems to be the sweet spot for the best bang for your buck tv's the past 10 years.
Interesting history. I bought a 26" Mitsubishi for like $800 in 1989, a 60" Mitsubishi projection set for $3500 in 1998 or so, a series of plasmas in the early 2000s that kept going back to the retailer or mfr. ($3000-5000), a 2006 50" Panasonic plasma for $2000, a 2012 65" Panasonic plasma for $3000. Seems like the sweet spot for me was $800-5000!

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Originally Posted by sytech View Post
As many here have said OLED is not intended to be a mainstream product. QLED will be mainstream.
When? 2030? No time anyone at all should care about.

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Originally Posted by scott967 View Post
If the mainstream market moves towards the 7" form factor, then the 55"+ market will be mainly for videophiles with dedicated media rooms. Maybe some space for larger display for sports viewing which tends to be more communal, but even there I wouldn't be surprised if in the mainstream everyone is watching their own screen.
In a way your mainstream of the future is now. I see people in sports bars looking at their phones. Or at live sports for that matter.

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Originally Posted by CHASLS2 View Post
I'm not touching OLED anytime soon. Needs to get better and cheaper and in a 60" size.
Better than what? It's so much better than any plasma ever built that I won't waste time listening to people who feel it isn't. Ditto LCD. That it isn't 60 inches may matter for you (and many others). I expect size diversity in the future.

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Originally Posted by slacker711 View Post
One comment on QLED's. I have a feeling that Samsung is going to label their quantum dot color filter TV's with LED backlights as QLED's. They have never had any compunction about pushing the boundaries on labels and their comments over the last few months have trended in this direction.

Also, while I agree that OLED's have yet to match the cost structure of FALD LCD's at Vizio and the like, I think they did hit a significant milestone this year by matching the price of Samsung's lone FALD. Sony continues to be in their world when it comes to pricing and it shows with their unit sales.
Yes, I agree Samsung will do this. I don't think anyone will be fooled. If they do this, by the way, it will mean one of two things (1) they don't believe emissive quantum dot will ever exist or (2) they think they can brand that with some other name down the road. They would poison the well of "quantum dot", heck they already have.

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Originally Posted by marathonnutcase View Post
That article was as thoughtful, entertaining, and useful as any I've read, and why I keep coming back to AVS Forum. Thanks rogo for taking the time to write it.
You're most welcome.

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Originally Posted by cah95046 View Post
What difference does it make what technology is used (or called) if it produces a picture that consumers like.

My predictions for 65 in in the next year (or two).

4k is already available below $1000.

QDEF based 1000 + nit will push below $1000 (the higher brightness will be visible at Walmart)

QDCF based 2000 - 4000 nit will push below $2000 (the higher brightness will be visible at Bestbuy)

FALD and OLED will dominate >$2000 videophile market (the deeper blacks, beyond that achievable with 5000:1 NCR, require watching in total darkness to be appreciated)
I agree that OLED won't dominate in 65 for the next year or two. I don't tend to believe that eye-searing LCD will keep it at bay for too many more years in the $1000+ segment. For a while, yes. Forever? No.

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Nope. The OLED crew here repeatedly confirmed LG invested millions in OLED to remain a premium niche market in the large format segment. The mere mention that LG was releasing QDCF as an alternative led to mass hysteria. OLED will definitely start dominating the small form factor segment as cost is now comparable and QLED and MicroLED is not yet ready to take over.
Apple has MicroLED in development. For small displays. Maybe.

I doubt it ever becomes a TV, even if it somehow becomes a watch or smartphone screen.

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Originally Posted by Cam1977 View Post
So Qled and microled aren't ready why, what are your insiders telling you that the rest of us don't know...I mean I don't want to cause mass hysteria amongst the oled crowd...
No one can make them. In fact, neither has ever really been demonstrated in a high-frame-rate (read 30), full-color (read 16,000+) display.

Neither matters in TV this decade, if ever.

You can't sell what you can't make. And these can't be made.

Everyone who believed in the false grails of FED, SED, etc. failed to grasp this.
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There's a saying about "everything in moderation". If only it was applied to well, you know...
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post #21 of 248 Old 10-25-2016, 12:40 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cah95046 View Post
What difference does it make what technology is used (or called) if it produces a picture that consumers like.

My predictions for 65 in in the next year (or two).

4k is already available below $1000.

QDEF based 1000 + nit will push below $1000 (the higher brightness will be visible at Walmart)

QDCF based 2000 - 4000 nit will push below $2000 (the higher brightness will be visible at Bestbuy)

FALD and OLED will dominate >$2000 videophile market (the deeper blacks, beyond that achievable with 5000:1 NCR, require watching in total darkness to be appreciated)
I don't really disagree with most of what you said, just the part about Samsung calling QDCF "QLED". For reasons pretty obvious that's just not right. If they do it's misleading and deceiving, as well as cheating because IT'S NOT QLED and that's that. QLED is a pure emissive QD display with absolutely no backlight or LCD layer of any kind. It's mostly just a concept, a lab experiment at this point, however that experiment did once develop into a 4 inch 2 color emissive display that was shown to a very small number of people at a very small event. It's still being worked on behind the scenes but it's no where near complete and we still await a follow up to that lone prototype in existence.

That said Samsung hasn't confirmed their going to do this yet, but the fact that a couple writers have misinformed people this way has me concerned and we'll see what Samsung does next year
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post #22 of 248 Old 10-25-2016, 05:23 AM
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I would not be surprised if LCd naturally evolves into QLED. That would probably be the end of OLED.
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post #23 of 248 Old 10-25-2016, 07:46 AM
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LG is driving the price down on OLED which is crushing the high end LED's. If the High end LED's vanish without a replacement technology we will then realize this is not a good thing.
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post #24 of 248 Old 10-25-2016, 08:10 AM
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Oh no Sytech is back on the oled thread spitting out truth to us!!!
Here is some more truth. IHS forecast for OLED TV market goes down 32% by 2020.

http://www.businesskorea.co.kr/engli...s-down-32-2020

DON'T ARGUE WITH ME. I AM NEVER WONG.
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post #25 of 248 Old 10-25-2016, 08:29 AM
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Next year LG should complete their lineup of OLED sizes with the 88" and 99" and gradually make them high-end affordable like the trajectory the 77" is entering now. Having the full lineup of 55", 66" (OK, 65"), 77", 88", 99" ready in 2017 preparing for the bloodbath of LCD at high-end in 2018 when the new manufacturing capacity will be buzzing. Thus 2018 may see a dent in some segment of LCD sales.
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post #26 of 248 Old 10-25-2016, 08:55 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sytech View Post
Here is some more truth. IHS forecast for OLED TV market goes down 32% by 2020.

http://www.businesskorea.co.kr/engli...s-down-32-2020
When is a forecast the truth? You sound like the mainstream media presidential polls.
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post #27 of 248 Old 10-25-2016, 09:07 AM
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Price is by far the most important determination of TV sales...

https://www.amazon.com/Best-Sellers-...tronics/172659

It seems people don't even care if the TV is 4K.
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post #28 of 248 Old 10-25-2016, 09:33 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sytech View Post
Here is some more truth. IHS forecast for OLED TV market goes down 32% by 2020.

http://www.businesskorea.co.kr/engli...s-down-32-2020
It's a forecast, not a "truth" until time proves them right. Here's some truth, 8 companies have now made their own OLED TV's and Panasonic is in the process of making a second and LG making another generation next year. More will certainly come along. It also continues to expand in the smartphone and tablet market, as well as for various professional uses. OLED and LCD will both be here for the next 5 years at least, QLED will not be.
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post #29 of 248 Old 10-25-2016, 09:34 AM
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In this economy, most folks are gonna spend $1000+ on a TV. Most folks are casual watchers that could care less about 4K or HDR. Busy lives and limited funds make it difficult to consider paying so much for a TV. My wife and kids are fine with watching DVDs and 480p content on television. 3D never really gained traction and I doubt HDR will either.

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post #30 of 248 Old 10-25-2016, 10:08 AM
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Was just reading one of those articles about that 4 inch 2010 QLED from Samsung, here is the link...

http://www.qled-info.com/wordpress-r...at-siteground/

Samsung said then that the first QLED's were 3-5 years away and they expected them to appear around 2014 - 2015. Instead we have not got a single demonstration since, not even a 5 inch one. On top of that Blue QD's still are not ready even for LCD's. This is just a perfect example along with SED/ FED before of how these companies literally talk out of their a** when it comes to releasing a new display technology. The idea then that a display that just had it's first ever prototype, which was 4 inches, 320x240 pixel resolution, and not RGB was going to manifest into a commercially releasable 50 inch (or larger) 4K resolution true RGB display in 5 years or less was a joke. It's just as much a joke now.
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