Official SED, Info, Discussion, Etc Thread!!! - Page 10 - AVS Forum
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OLED Technology and Flat Panels General > Official SED, Info, Discussion, Etc Thread!!!
lorenzow's Avatar lorenzow 04:28 PM 06-17-2005
... just rattling your cage a little. :D

I don't know how prices are south of the border but up here a good quality 720p goes for > 3x the price of a EDTV PDP. What will 1080p go for, 4x? Yet, when we prognosticate about how 1080p SED will compete with PDP, we use the low end of the PDP price scale. How will the (so far non-existent, but more likely) 50" 1080p PDP compare price-wise with the (so far non-existent) 50" 1080p SED?

Enigma's Avatar Enigma 09:14 PM 07-01-2005
You guys see this bit of news?

Not sure if there is anything new here, but it's recent news, anyway.
Joe Murphy Jr's Avatar Joe Murphy Jr 10:39 PM 07-01-2005
"Further reports now note that they expect mass market pricing soon after their new 1.7 B US assembly line starts up in early 2007."

US assembly line? I wonder if they'll accept my application now? Better get my Will Work For SED sign ready. :D

Thanks for the link Enigma.
srohde's Avatar srohde 11:08 PM 07-01-2005
Anybody know why the assembly is in the US? I didn't think any displays were made here - too expensive.
subysouth's Avatar subysouth 12:23 AM 07-02-2005
Quote:
Originally Posted by srohde
Anybody know why the assembly is in the US? I didn't think any displays were made here - too expensive.
I think they mean the cost of their assembly line will be 1.7B US, not be in the US. But it would be neat/great if I was wrong.
Joe Murphy Jr's Avatar Joe Murphy Jr 09:05 AM 07-02-2005
It's money -- not location.

Doh!!!
Enigma's Avatar Enigma 09:12 AM 07-02-2005
And quite a lot of money at that. Anyone know what a similar manufacturing facility for plasma and/or lcd fp costs? Also, when they say "more than a 50" panel", are we talking Fuji, or discounted Panny (I suspect the former). So from that my guess would be between $8000 abd $10000 for a 50" panel. Another issue I remember reading about was life of the panel; I wonder if they've "solved" that to the point where it's a non-issue vs. plasma?

The "very black" blacks have me intrigued.
aud19's Avatar aud19 11:31 AM 07-02-2005
Good news :) Not there yet but definitely relieves some worry ;)
subysouth's Avatar subysouth 05:46 PM 07-02-2005
Quote:
Originally Posted by Enigma
The "very black" blacks have me intrigued.
The blacks are just the start of what I hope the panels will be bringing. Current plasmas are getting very good at blacks already. They need to also bring a wide color pallete and fast response for the phosphors. They need to bring a big flat CRT.

ss
toke's Avatar toke 05:25 AM 07-03-2005
Hmm, mass manufacturing starting next month...
Has anybody info about the development with DisplayPort?
For better color depth SED really needs it.
aud19's Avatar aud19 10:35 AM 07-03-2005
Quote:
Originally Posted by Enigma
And quite a lot of money at that. Anyone know what a similar manufacturing facility for plasma and/or lcd fp costs? Also, when they say "more than a 50" panel", are we talking Fuji, or discounted Panny (I suspect the former). So from that my guess would be between $8000 abd $10000 for a 50" panel. Another issue I remember reading about was life of the panel; I wonder if they've "solved" that to the point where it's a non-issue vs. plasma?

The "very black" blacks have me intrigued.
The blacks on especially the Panny's is getting quite good. But as a 50" Panny is still MSRP'ing for $5000 US with no 1080p (still at 1366 x 768 resolution) and I believe the Fuji's are even more... it's not a big problem IMO... yet.... But they better get their collective Toshiba/Canon ass in gear if they hope to get there foot in the door enought to justify larger production/factories etc leading to the declining prices they'll need to stay competetive. It's still possible but they've got to MOVE! I for one am hoping and praying they succeed. This is the most promising display technology to come along in AGES. If they do it right... GOOD TIMES!
rogo's Avatar rogo 01:28 PM 07-03-2005
There are probably 24 months before you can really buy one of these SED displays. There are at least 12 months.

Judging today's plasma against tomorrow's SED is pointless.

The plasma will be 25% cheaper a year from now and 25% cheaper again another year later. And the specs will improve.
madshi's Avatar madshi 02:10 PM 07-03-2005
Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo
Judging today's plasma against tomorrow's SED is pointless.

The plasma will be 25% cheaper a year from now and 25% cheaper again another year later. And the specs will improve.
In 1-2 years we should have 1080p plasmas. The big question is what will improve apart from that? Recently plasmas didn't seem to change all that much, anymore. The black level in Panasonic plasmas didn't get better for several generations now (maybe it even got a bit worse). Other plasma screens might slowly catch up to Panasonic black level, but they don't seem to get better, either.

The next question is: Will contrast stay as good as it is when going to 1080p? Right now the EDTV Panasonic plasmas have better black levels and better contrast than the HDTV Panasonic plasmas. If that is any indication for the 1080p displays, black level might suffer. So honestly I'm not sure today's plasmas will improve that much in PQ in the next 1-2 years, apart from getting 1080p.

Of course that doesn't mean, that SED will automatically be better. It might actually be worse, at least in the first generations. Each technology takes time to mature...
toke's Avatar toke 07:22 AM 07-04-2005
Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo
There are probably 24 months before you can really buy one of these SED displays. There are at least 12 months.
Now where do those diplays disappear before that?
Or just sold in Japan?

Let's assume that factory (which max output is 70k units/month) has huge quality problems, so they produce 1k units in August. After that they increase 1k units every month. So they produce 15,000 units this year.
By the end of March they have made 36,000 displays and that's when they say they will hit the stores in Japan.
If SEDs are even more expensive that 50" plasmas, do Japanise markets eat all of them?
By the end of the year they have made 117,000 units that year and will be producing 20k units a month.

Calculation above is extremely pessimistic. If they can produce 2k units in August and increase 2k units per month, they will produce 30,000 units this year and well over 200,000 units next year. Maybe 2007 they have full capasity output which is 840k units per year.

How many above 50" plasmas are sold in Japan and US annually?
(That might tell us how many 50" SEDs are sold whith price higher than 50" PDP.)
Could us Europeans get a first doze of SEDs in 2006?
hoodlum's Avatar hoodlum 09:09 AM 07-04-2005
For those who missed it, here is the article that was referenced.

http://neasia.nikkeibp.com/neasia/001588
hoodlum's Avatar hoodlum 09:14 AM 07-04-2005
SED coming to the U.S. in 2006!

Toshiba Pledges Leadership Expansion

"Ramirez articulated a 2005 television strategy embracing both flat and non-flat direct-view CRT TVs, CRT-based rear-projection TVs, and Surface-conduction Electron-emitter Display (SED) flat-panel products, now scheduled for a 2006 U.S. introduction."
Joe Murphy Jr's Avatar Joe Murphy Jr 10:45 AM 07-04-2005
Rather than ramping up production for the US, they could always send over what they don't think they'll sell in Japan. And that "now scheduled" (as in it could be something different later) 2006 introduction has a 12 month leeway -- January thru December, if I recall correctly.

Now that's pessimism! :eek:


Looks like I saved you a post, eh rogo? :D
rogo's Avatar rogo 11:52 AM 07-04-2005
Incrementing personal post counter per Joe... :)
aud19's Avatar aud19 12:02 PM 07-04-2005
I figure by the time SED's start to trickle in to North America, 1080p 50" plasmas will be priced about where todays 1366 x 768 are. The 1366 x 768 's will be around todays ED prices etc. I still don't see a problem IF they can get production going on schedule or VERY close to it. Also as mentioned by Madshi I doubt 1080p plasmas will have better black levels than the better ED ones today have, at best. Unless you know something we don't? (Which you may :D ) Panny 50"1080p plasma at MSRP of around $5000, Fuji at $6000, SED at $7000-$8000 and hopefully dropping from there. Is that too optimistic Rogo? Here's hoping it's not :)
srohde's Avatar srohde 12:56 PM 07-04-2005
Quote:
Originally Posted by madshi
In 1-2 years we should have 1080p plasmas. The big question is what will improve apart from that? Recently plasmas didn't seem to change all that much, anymore. The black level in Panasonic plasmas didn't get better for several generations now (maybe it even got a bit worse). Other plasma screens might slowly catch up to Panasonic black level, but they don't seem to get better, either.
I just got back from the future. I went to the year 2008. At Frys they had a SED right next to an LCD with LED backlight strobing thingy and a plasma.

The SED did have a slightly better picture but the LCD and plasma also looked really great.

Of the people I saw buying TVs, everyone seemed to not care so much about the slightly better PQ of the SED and opted for the cheaper displays.

I did see Bill Gates walking out of the store with a few SEDs though. Said he needed some displays for his bathroom.

I only use my time machine to see future trends in flat panel displays. Please don't ask me for stock tips or super bowl scores.

:) :) :)
aud19's Avatar aud19 01:09 PM 07-04-2005
I could very well be wrong (lord knows I have been before, ask my wife :D ) but is it really that big of a stretch to assume that the same people who bought inordinantly expensive plasmas in it's early years won't be more than happy to fork over large sums for SED's? Their plasma's are likely due for replacement anyways and I know there are a lot of a certain type of people who will buy it simply BECAUSE it's more expensive... As amazing as it is to myself and I'm sure to many of you, there are a lot of well-heeled people who think that way.
madshi's Avatar madshi 01:45 PM 07-04-2005
Quote:
Originally Posted by srohde
I just got back from the future. I went to the year 2008. At Frys they had a SED right next to an LCD with LED backlight strobing thingy and a plasma.

The SED did have a slightly better picture but the LCD and plasma also looked really great.
That's because in the bright shop light the difference in black level is not so evident... :D

Quote:
Originally Posted by srohde
Of the people I saw buying TVs, everyone seemed to not care so much about the slightly better PQ of the SED and opted for the cheaper displays.
Honestly, if SED becomes available in 2006 (which I'm not overly optimistic about), then it will surely cost a hefty price premium at that time. But Toshiba stated that they want to have 20-30 market share with SED in 2008 for 40"+ screens. They'll never ever be able to grab anything near that number if they stay much more expensive than the competition. So either Toshiba is much too optimistic, or they are serious with lowering the price in late 2007.

How exact is your time machine? Did you check a newspaper to see whether you were really in 2008? Sounds more like 2007 to me... :p
srohde's Avatar srohde 01:45 PM 07-04-2005
Some people who have the means will pay for SED thats for sure.

But the main thing is when plasma was first introduced it was the only flat panel available. Thats not the case with SED. Plasma is there and so is LCD for the smaller sizes.

A little off topic here, but now that we can get 32" LCDs for less than 1k I think the under 42" market is completely and utterly owned by LCD and will be forever.
Artwood's Avatar Artwood 02:33 PM 07-04-2005
I guess the real question is IF SED had 20% better overall picture quality how much would you be willing to pay for that improvement? Most people wouldn't pay a large premium, but I gurantee you that the early adopters of Plasmas and Qualia would be willing to pay a premium. I think Toshiba's share numbers are no where near realistic--I do believe that they'll be able to deliver on better quality but I don't know how expensive it will be. I don't think a 10% share of the market in 2010 is unrealistic. I think Rogo once gave a shot in the dark guess at SED share once if given a perfect scenario--nobody can guess as good as him. I look forward to the quality improvement in SED I just think it's further down the road than most people and I think it will be expensive--I just don't know how much.
rogo's Avatar rogo 08:26 PM 07-04-2005
Aud, your guesses sound about right, depending on actual timing of introduction, of course.

My take is this: No one should buy the first one. There are enough early adopters out there to pay the premium -- AVS Forum folk shouldn't be the people who pay it. Waiting until a year or so after launch will get you more pricing parity and a lot of the initial bugs squashed.

I think it's crazy to buy one of the first ones of these and pay a premium -- especially given Toshiba's past with new technologies.
Joe Murphy Jr's Avatar Joe Murphy Jr 09:41 PM 07-04-2005
I agree. Some people just have to have the new technology when it comes off the boat, but the best bet is to wait until the next gen product hits the shores. Of course, that won't hold for the next gen optical format -- at least not for me -- but this new display technology needs at least a year of maturity (the newness is flat and CRT, although neither flat nor CRT are new). Besides, I'm looking for a 7x" display for my next display purchase so the 50" introductory model won't cut it.

And it had better take a 1080pXX input, that's for sure!
erhman's Avatar erhman 10:13 PM 07-04-2005
Hello,

I am new to this forum, but I found this article on the web yesterday and I thought that this would be a good place to post the link.

http://www.dealerscope.com/doc/283069189778166.bsp

Thank you,

Eric.
jcinzano's Avatar jcinzano 10:34 PM 07-04-2005
welcome to the board and thanks for the post (though i'm betting you're also the author!)

you know, every time i read about SED i always think "i'll believe it when AVS forums has a chance to rake it over the coals" ... because sounding good on paper is one thing (and, more to the point, generating hype among investors and journalists is one thing). it's another to withstand a videophile's living room. all these technologies -- plasma, dlp, lcd .... seems like there's always something that mucks it up a bit. i mean, for instance, the "rainbow effect"?! what the **** is with that? you just never know. so, of course toshiba will make a technology that has not been field tested by the general public sound "superior on practically every front." yet their cloak and dagger display presentation makes me suspicious. guess we'll all find out come 06.
erhman's Avatar erhman 11:54 PM 07-04-2005
jcinzano,

No, I am not the author, although I am guessing that you meant that tong in cheek. Did you read the article by any chance? In any event, I am hoping that SED will live up to the expectations and I will look forward to seeing one in person to see how good they are. And I know when SED hits the streets the critical eyes of the vidoephile will be all over it.

One thing that I am almost sure of it that SED will have an image burn in potently like plasma because it uses phosphor. We will wait and see.

thanks!
jcinzano's Avatar jcinzano 12:01 AM 07-05-2005
Quote:
Originally Posted by erhman
jcinzano,

No, I am not the author, although I am guessing that you meant that tong in cheek. Did you read the article by any chance? In any event, I am hoping that SED will live up to the expectations and I will look forward to seeing one in person to see how good they are. And I know when SED hits the streets the critical eyes of the vidoephile will be all over it.

One thing that I am almost sure of it that SED will have an image burn in potently like plasma because it uses phosphor. We will wait and see.

thanks!
yeah, did read it. and, well, i meant it sort of tongue in cheek. i'm a journalist. and, like many in the profession, i've been guilty of posting a link now and then to something i've written. since the article just came out today and you have "new member" status, i thought it was an even bet.
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