So I don't think there will be an issue selling OLED TVs as "better than LCD". I do think two things are critical, however:
1) The margin between an OLED TV and the best LCD will be very small in terms of picture quality. In fact, I believe that a "fixed" Sharp Elite (i.e. the color issue corrected and the pulsing problem solved) would be within 10%-20% of expert reviewers' opinions of whatever OLED comes out. And on some objective measures, it will be equivalent. Keep in mind, that manufacturers have already touted that their displays have 10 million to one contrast for several years...
Also, let's just agree that as a practical matter, the OLEDs we are discussing will ship in 2013. So we are potentially comparing them to TVs that are two generations ahead of where we are now.
2) While you can charge a price premium for quality, there is an inherent tradeoff between how much of a premium and how many you can sell -- irrespective of quality. It's helpful again to look at cars. Simply by moving the prices up to $100,000 from $50,000, there is a dramatic drop off in sales. For the price gap, you get features, performance, snob appeal -- and all are readily apparent every time you drive the car, both inside and out.
The current "bar" for the high end is the $3000 Sony 55HX929, which I believe is the priciest 55" TV you can buy, but at least is more or less. It already probably accounts for something like 2-4% of the 55"+ TVs sold. I don't actually know the real fraction, but what I do know is that there are plenty of 55" TVs for <$2000 from a number of mfrs. as well as 60" TVs (and even 65" plasmas that retail for under $3000).
For argument's sake, very approximately (margin for error is high here), the worldwide TV market is <250 million units. The 55"+ segment is likely less than 15%. Let's say it totaled 40 million units this year. Of that, the "premium segment", where prices are $2500 and up is not more than 10%, so at most 4 million units. (My guess is the reality is more like half this, but I'm rounding up in every case.)
If OLEDs arrive on the scene at $5000, they could reasonably expect to sell at most 400,000 units globally, spread across both LG and Samsung (that's 1/10 of the premium market). Realistically, it's more likely about 100,000 units. Basically, there is no such market today and so the assumptions underlying this is that the OLED makers can invent a market that does not exist and convince hundreds of thousands of people who already own HDTVs -- many with very good ones -- that they need this thing that is marginally better or even "somewhat" better.
Again, by way of perspective, this would be a multiple of the number of luxury automobiles sold each year to those same well-heeled people.
Now, at $3000, the picture is somewhat brighter, because they could crowd out some of the priciest LCDs. There, the market size could be into the seven-figure range. But it gets tricky. Why Because the target keeps moving. So long as the product is premium priced over some reasonable substitute and the premium is meaningful, the substitute will be repriced accordingly to maintain share. It's not like Sharp, Sony, Toshiba (mostly outside the U.S.), Panasonic are going to stand still and watch OLED take share. For that matter, the LCD and plasma divisions of LG and Samsung will keep competing with their OLED divisions.
In essence, to push past something like 5-15% of the segment, OLED will have to reach price parity with a portion of the segment that is at least that big. Today, my guess is that would dictate a price of around $2000-2250. Today. In two years? Who knows.
We can safely conclude "year one" of OLED sales (which we are calling 2013), won't be about the push, so really we should be looking at 3 years. So ask yourself, what would a 55" D7000 Samsung cost in 3 years? That's probably the model that OLEDs have to go up against if they want to push volume. Going up against D8000 and HX929 means semi-permanence in the six-figure volumes, which becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy on permanently high price, which becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy on never actually replacing LCD.
My guess is that the target is for the 55" OLED TV to be $1500 in 2015-2106. By then, a mainstream LCD will certainly be half that. And, again, at more than 2x the mainstream, your volumes are inherently limited as the market itself disappears. There is virtually no $5000 TV market today, even though it was a fairly routine price 5-7 years ago. The $3000 TV market today is already fairly small. It's not going to get bigger.
And you may ask yourself well how did I get here?
And you may ask yourself am I right? Am I wrong?
And you may say to yourself: What have I done?!
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Once you let the trolls run the bridge, you have a bridge run by trolls. I'll be back.