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OLED Technology and Flat Panels General > OLED TVs: Technology Advancements Thread
rogo's Avatar rogo 12:12 AM 04-26-2012
Quote:
Originally Posted by rgb32 View Post

What... a Panasonic TC-P65VT50?

Why is that an eek? I mean I haven't ordered it yet because I'm waiting to make sure there isn't a showstopper, but assuming it's better than the ST50 by the margin I expect it to be, I'll be ordering one next month.

Quote:
Originally Posted by specuvestor View Post

For those following this thread for long time, it is amusing that irkuck is repeating what rogo said a year late, and rogo is replying to "rogo" now

I can't decide which is more insane: Me talking to me, or irkuck talking to me from a year ago.
Quote:


Like I said, the train of technology has left the station, it's no longer at the stage of whether OLED is viable as a future mass market product. Neither does it mean LCD or plasma will disappear next year. We don't live in a binary world. What is up for debate is the price curve hence the adoption and replacement rate. And of course the usual buzz on the generational improvements in OLED, which is what AVS is about

As I said, I expect there to be a lot of LCDs next decade. I just doubt many videophiles are going to be buying them. Most videophiles don't buy them now. In fact, LCD has never really been the choice of the majority of videophiles when you think about it. As great as the Sharp Elite is, most videophiles buy plasmas because they are so much cheaper or because they don't like the color on the Sharps or for whatever reason.

Quote:
Originally Posted by htwaits View Post

That probably shows that Rogo has incorporated new information into his evaluation.

You know me well.

Quote:
Originally Posted by specuvestor View Post

And I respect that. Like I always quoted Keynes "When facts change, I change my mind... What do you do Sir?"

It's funny, we have people in this country called "Kansans" who come from a place called Kansas. They have learned of things like fossils and geological strata and yet still deny the existence of evolution.... I find this ironic only because you brought up Keynes, which kind of looks like the word Kansas.
Quote:


I am not trolling rogo but every incremental positive he has towards OLED, is just a confirmation that the path is right

I don't view your remarks as trolling in any way. When you notice more optimism, I sometimes clarify the nature of said optimism.

specuvestor's Avatar specuvestor 12:38 AM 04-26-2012
^^ Evolution is an incomplete explanation/ theory in any case Like many discussions in AVS, things are more complicated than they look on surface. Heuristically we would love to believe there is a simple explanation so we can make sense of our environment. But we forget that in a complex chaos system that there is no singular answer but more of a "maybe", "probably", which doesn't appeal to classical deterministic views. And there are things like parents' love that don't make sense at all.

The progress of OLED is not deterministic as well. It's a probability game in a changing competitive environment. We can only guess when OLED will be mainstream, but that doesn't appeal to many. Science as a discipline and ideology has moved on, mainstream has not.

Quote:
Originally Posted by HearingImpaired View Post

Still though 30k hours is about ten years watching tv 8 hours a day.

key word is "up to"
htwaits's Avatar htwaits 02:17 AM 04-26-2012
Quote:
Originally Posted by specuvestor View Post

I am not trolling rogo but every incremental positive he has towards OLED, is just a confirmation that the path is right

Please forgive me, but I don't understand the highlighted "but" portion of your last comment.
irkuck's Avatar irkuck 04:05 AM 04-26-2012
Quote:
Originally Posted by slacker711 View Post

The requirements for those two metrics are very different for televisions versus handsets. Nobody is talking about a 300ppi 50" television. OLED's will be able to handle the resolutions for both 4K and 8K with little problem. On the power consumption side, unless people start surfing the web on their televisions, OLED's should perform very well against LCD's for the vast majority of content.

I was not suggesting 300ppi TVs, that would be insane. What I meant is that LCD is evolving all the time and OLED will be stressed to follow. True, one can make high-density OLEDs but let's see them first competing with LCDs. About the power consumption, Sharp claims it lowered it down for the LCD once again.

Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo View Post

No. I am however implying the price gap will shrink over time. And OLED will, in fact, beat the street prices of locally dimmed, full array LCD, which might not even exist. Yes, it's an uphill battle. I am sticking with my original forecasts for how much penetration OLED will achieve through the decade. That said, even those forecasts -- which wildly offend the OLED zealots by the way -- show that an uphill battle will eventually lead to about 1/3 of the market. By the next decade, OLED will most assuredly capture 1/2 the market because, well, the world's largest LCD makers have already decided to shift from LCD to it.

Time horizon of 10ys is speculation, what is predicted up to 2015 is couple of percent of OLED market share. That means OLED spreading up will require deep pockets from its promoters.

Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo View Post

I'm buying a 65" plasma in June. My next "problem" is in 2016. I'm not too worried, but thanks for looking out for me.

Heh, that fits zealotic profile of preaching theories but extremely conservative practice . Plasma??? In 2012?

Anyway, this illustrates the problem of moving target for OLED. The announced 55 inchers are now too small for high-enders to consider, even if their PQ is brilliant. So now OLED should be moving to the 65"+ segment but this too big a step for now. If and when such OLEDs appear LCD will be well established there.


Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo View Post

Yes, all Apple has is a good website... Umm ok.

Oh, no, they have designer products people are buying like crazy. But 100 billion worth companies like Facebook?


Quote:
Originally Posted by specuvestor View Post

For those following this thread for long time, it is amusing that irkuck is repeating what rogo said a year late, and rogo is replying to "rogo" now

Like I said, the train of technology has left the station, it's no longer at the stage of whether OLED is viable as a future mass market product. Neither does it mean LCD or plasma will disappear next year. We don't live in a binary world. What is up for debate is the price curve hence the adoption and replacement rate. And of course the usual buzz on the generational improvements in OLED, which is what AVS is about Resolution on small screens are still being improved but nowhere near retina LCD. 1080p for TV is not an issue, but next 3 years their focus will probably not be on 4k. Problem with OLED is traditionally on blue lifespan of up to 30k hours. LG RGBW implementation supposedly lengthen the lifespan. We'll see when the spec is out. That's the IGZO backpane we've been talking about in this thread and iPad threads. What irkuck fail to figure out is that IGZO is only for sizes from about 10" iPad to 60" TV. you still need LTPS for small sizes and a-Si for huge size, as of current development.

I've been consistently stating that LCD is an extremely flexible technology which is unlikely to get disposed any time soon. OLED entering now faces huge problems. e.g. the 55" OLED flagships are not impressive anymore vs. flotillas of 65"+ LCD flagships. OLED portable panels are not so impressive vs. latest high-density LCDs. IGZO is just another example of LCD flexibility, it will limit possibility of OLED entering tablets and monitors.

Besides this, OLED is projected in the minds of fantasizers as the ultimate Holy Grail tech contrasting with the proven real-life issues with the LCD. Reality should not be expected prefect.
rogo's Avatar rogo 12:24 PM 04-26-2012
Quote:
Originally Posted by irkuck View Post


Heh, that fits zealotic profile of preaching theories but extremely conservative practice . Plasma??? In 2012?
.

According to people in this section of AVS, buying a plasma in 2012 is idiotic. You're at least the second person to imply this more than a little strongly.

I guess I don't get why. I'm not sure why it won't serve me for 5+ years like the last one did.
CruelInventions's Avatar CruelInventions 01:44 PM 04-26-2012
Quote:
Originally Posted by specuvestor View Post


Unlike a forumer still hoping for SED

Who is now driving people absolutely bonkers over on the audio side, with subwoofers being his latest chew toy.
vinnie97's Avatar vinnie97 06:29 PM 04-26-2012
Quote:
Originally Posted by specuvestor View Post

^^ Evolution is an incomplete explanation/ theory in any case

Thanks for being level-headed on this topic so we don't have to get into theories on origins.

Quote:
Originally Posted by irkuck View Post

Heh, that fits zealotic profile of preaching theories but extremely conservative practice . Plasma??? In 2012?

Zealotry, really? That's what I would call someone who fixates on LED tech as the only viable display tech.
specuvestor's Avatar specuvestor 06:30 PM 04-26-2012
Quote:
Originally Posted by CruelInventions View Post

Who is now driving people absolutely bonkers over on the audio side, with subwoofers being his latest chew toy.

one of the things I learnt in life is never argue with a persistent retiree

Quote:
Originally Posted by htwaits View Post

Please forgive me, but I don't understand the highlighted "but" portion of your last comment.

My feel of the industry is more corporate management, strategic, investor relations and financial aspects. I hardly talk to the people on the ground. But you need people on the ground to feedback whether plasma P5 or LCD 10G is a good idea, or 3D/ 4K make sense or not.

From skeptic to "quantum leap", rogo represent the industry's sentiment towards OLED pretty well AFAIK. He is a pretty good representation how perceptions have changed. So i do follow his perception closely. Sammy made a big bet, when perceptions were unfavorable, and looks like bearing fruit. OLED devices is the main driver for their display profitability now, as per results today. LG has surprised with RGBW OLED. Others like the Japanese and Taiwanese, didn't.

" April 27 (Bloomberg) -- Samsung Electronics Co. overtook Nokia Oyj as the world’s biggest vendor of mobile-phones last quarter, ending the Finnish company’s 14-year run as the global industry leader, according to researcher Strategy Analytics.
Samsung shipped 93.5 million handsets in the first quarter, 36 percent more than a year earlier, and compared with 82.7 million for second-ranked Nokia, Strategy Analytics said in an e-mailed statement today. It’s the first time the Suwon, South Korea-based company led in phone shipments, the Boston-based researcher said.
Demand for Galaxy smartphones helped Samsung today post first-quarter net income of 5.05 trillion won ($4.5 billion), beating analysts’ estimates. Nokia last week reported a 1.34 billion euros ($1.8 billion) first-quarter operating loss after handset sales slumped."
David_B's Avatar David_B 08:57 PM 04-26-2012
Samsung has been pro-OLED for over 7 years. Rogo has turned his "sentiment" around in the last 6 months.

Get real.

The only people with negative outlooks on OLED have been internet commentors.

Samsung, Sony, Kodak, Dow etc have been on OLED for a very long time. They didn't stick it out this long because they thought it would fail, or not be better economically then current tech while improving tech specs.

Quote:
Originally Posted by specuvestor View Post

one of the things I learnt in life is never argue with a persistent retiree



My feel of the industry is more corporate management, strategic, investor relations and financial aspects. I hardly talk to the people on the ground. But you need people on the ground to feedback whether plasma P5 or LCD 10G is a good idea, or 3D/ 4K make sense or not.

From skeptic to "quantum leap", rogo represent the industry's sentiment towards OLED pretty well AFAIK. He is a pretty good representation how perceptions have changed. So i do follow his perception closely. Sammy made a big bet, when perceptions were unfavorable, and looks like bearing fruit. OLED devices is the main driver for their display profitability now, as per results today. LG has surprised with RGBW OLED. Others like the Japanese and Taiwanese, didn't.


specuvestor's Avatar specuvestor 09:46 PM 04-26-2012
^^ Have you heard of PM OLED? Maybe you can read this thread in entirety first, since you want to talk about history, which is as real as you can get. I could remember quite a lot of negativity on OLED since PM OLED failed to gain traction and everyone bailed out except Sammy, and with Sony's half hearted effort
rogo's Avatar rogo 11:32 PM 04-26-2012
Quote:
Originally Posted by David_B View Post

Samsung has been pro-OLED for over 7 years. Rogo has turned his "sentiment" around in the last 6 months.

Zero OLED TVs shipped in 7 years... Up to and including today.

Impressive for a "pro-OLED company".
irkuck's Avatar irkuck 03:34 AM 04-27-2012
Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo View Post

Zero OLED TVs shipped in 7 years... Up to and including today. Impressive for a "pro-OLED company".

This is biased statement. What counts are not only TV displays. Samsung did fantastic job producing OLED displays for mobile. Now TVs are just being made. This is stunning development. The problem of OLED is stiff competition from the evolving LCD.
javry's Avatar javry 04:42 AM 04-27-2012
Quote:
Originally Posted by specuvestor View Post

..........The progress of OLED is not deterministic as well. It's a probability game in a changing competitive environment. We can only guesswhen OLED will be mainstream,

and "if" -
JimP 05:22 AM 04-27-2012
Quote:
Originally Posted by irkuck View Post

This is biased statement. What counts are not only TV displays. Samsung did fantastic job producing OLED displays for mobile. Now TVs are just being made. This is stunning development. The problem of OLED is stiff competition from the evolving LCD.

Well, he's right. There aren't any OLED displays large enough to be considered home theater displays on the market.

As you said, there is stiff competition and that in part doesn't make it a definate shoe in.
David_B's Avatar David_B 05:38 AM 04-27-2012
What did LCD start out as? Calculator parts.

Seems many manufacturers "stuck it out" with LCD long enough to develop the replacment for CRT huh?

BTW, PM OLED failed? I think you don't understand how many devices shiped with it. Did they make a PM OLED TV? No. Did PM OLED lead to TVs? Of course it did. Development is mostly failure, but through failure you find success if you "stick it out".

Quote:
Originally Posted by specuvestor View Post

^^ Have you heard of PM OLED? Maybe you can read this thread in entirety first, since you want to talk about history, which is as real as you can get. I could remember quite a lot of negativity on OLED since PM OLED failed to gain traction and everyone bailed out except Sammy, and with Sony's half hearted effort


slacker711's Avatar slacker711 08:19 AM 04-27-2012
AUO is promising samples of their 32" OLED television by the end of the year off of their Gen 6 pilot fab.

http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20120427PD208.html

I dont think they have mentioned the manufacturing method for the display but AUO is going to show a 32" OLED with a IGZO TFT at SID so that seems like the best bet.
specuvestor's Avatar specuvestor 10:10 AM 04-27-2012
Quote:
Originally Posted by David_B View Post

What did LCD start out as? Calculator parts.

Seems many manufacturers "stuck it out" with LCD long enough to develop the replacment for CRT huh?

BTW, PM OLED failed? I think you don't understand how many devices shiped with it. Did they make a PM OLED TV? No. Did PM OLED lead to TVs? Of course it did. Development is mostly failure, but through failure you find success if you "stick it out".

You have no idea how closely we followed mobile display driver leader Solomon Systech and SDI back then when PM OLED was introduced mainly as a secondary display on top of a clamshell, just when industry was transiting to color STN.

By your logic SED or FED TV should appear in 10 year's time and we're actually not too negative about them right now.
David_B's Avatar David_B 11:51 AM 04-27-2012
Quote:
Originally Posted by specuvestor View Post


You have no idea how closely we followed mobile display driver leader Solomon Systech and SDI back then when PM OLED was introduced mainly as a secondary display on top of a clamshell, just when industry was transiting to color STN.

By your logic SED or FED TV should appear in 10 year's time and we're actually not too negative about them right now.

I never said anything about the patents of OLED, why would you bring up a display tech that was comletely stopped because of legal not technical issues?

My logic does not extend to tech stopped by legal issues.

And are you admitting pm oled was not a failure as you earlier said? Because I don't understand your attempt to marginalize a display tech that helped us get where we are today.
rogo's Avatar rogo 12:51 PM 04-27-2012
Quote:
Originally Posted by slacker711 View Post

AUO is promising samples of their 32" OLED television by the end of the year off of their Gen 6 pilot fab.
.

This is intriguing (and a bit weird). I don't see any market for a premium priced 32" TV. I wonder if they are going to show their ability to produce and then move upmarket in size or if they are going to try to make and sell a $2000 32" TV.

Worthy of watching this development because on the face of it, there's a mismatch here -- but I'm sure they have an idea of what comes next.
RichB's Avatar RichB 12:53 PM 04-27-2012
Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo View Post

This is intriguing (and a bit weird). I don't see any market for a premium priced 32" TV. I wonder if they are going to show their ability to produce and then move upmarket in size or if they are going to try to make and sell a $2000 32" TV.

Worthy of watching this development because on the face of it, there's a mismatch here -- but I'm sure they have an idea of what comes next.

How about a kitchen TV where viewing angle matters?
$2K doubtful, $1K perhaps.

- Rich
irkuck's Avatar irkuck 01:26 AM 04-28-2012
Quote:
Originally Posted by JimP View Post

Well, he's right. There aren't any OLED displays large enough to be considered home theater displays on the market. As you said, there is stiff competition and that in part doesn't make it a definate shoe in.

The 55" OLEDs are just being made as I said, at least LG must be stocking them already for the May launch in Europe. The problem with stiff competition is in LCD price and PQ which is just good-enough. More general, LCD is highly adaptable tech, e.g. Once OLED was advertised as super-thin, now LCD is pactically matching it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by RichB View Post

How about a kitchen TV where viewing angle matters?
$2K doubtful, $1K perhaps.
- Rich

OLED kitchen TVs? Sounds joke for a product supposed to have ultra-high PQ. Anybody trying to start OLED market with TVs less than, say, 40" is damaging the OLED brand. Even the coming 55" OLEDs will face pondering "Yeah nice, but I can get same size top LCD for waaay less or get much bigger LCD much cheaper".
CptBeaky's Avatar CptBeaky 03:14 AM 04-28-2012
A 32" OLED TV suggests a focus away from the North American market. Or maybe they get a significant enough improvement in yields that they think they can price it better. Made well, it could be a hell of a nice monitor for a indie filmmaker or enthusiast digital photographer.
shyguy3763's Avatar shyguy3763 08:33 AM 04-28-2012
I'd buy a 40-42 inch OLED tv in a heartbeat,my bedroom is quite small,I'd love to replace my 10 year old LCD.I think it would be a great way to test the market on a first gen product,cost less too compared to 55 inch model.
Mikazaru's Avatar Mikazaru 04:33 PM 04-29-2012
Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo View Post

This is intriguing (and a bit weird). I don't see any market for a premium priced 32" TV. I wonder if they are going to show their ability to produce and then move upmarket in size or if they are going to try to make and sell a $2000 32" TV.

Worthy of watching this development because on the face of it, there's a mismatch here -- but I'm sure they have an idea of what comes next.

Actually, the article says "sizes larger than 32 inches". I would pay $2000 for a 40" OLED.
specuvestor's Avatar specuvestor 07:43 PM 04-29-2012
Quote:
Originally Posted by David_B View Post

I never said anything about the patents of OLED, why would you bring up a display tech that was comletely stopped because of legal not technical issues?

My logic does not extend to tech stopped by legal issues.

And are you admitting pm oled was not a failure as you earlier said? Because I don't understand your attempt to marginalize a display tech that helped us get where we are today.

Then the logic is incorrect. Tech developments had been littered with legal and IP issue, from software copyright to hardware IP infringement, in the past 30 years that I've been following the industry. OLED or even LCD are not invented by Koreans or Taiwanese. I don't even understand the lawsuit Oracle have on Google for Java (remember Open Office?)

It depends whether they have the foresight and fortitude to "stuck it out" (like you said). But without foresight, it's just a grind to financial hell, and we've seen so many of them. For every success story there are at least 9 that failed, but we don't read about it. We only read success. If board of Apple refuse to get Jobs back in 1996, Job's legacy would be a wannabe (Lisa and NeXt were not exactly a smashing commercial success) and Apple would be another Kodak. It's a fine line between zero and hero.

As such history had shown PMOLED was a total failure. It tried but didn't succeed and manufacturers avoided it like a plague, distancing themselves from bad publicity. To Sammy's credit, they continued to develop it. They were the hero in this case.

http://www.engadget.com/2008/12/16/s...rts-on-amoled/
-From 2008, note "small bucket of buyers"
rogo's Avatar rogo 12:25 AM 04-30-2012
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mikazaru View Post

Actually, the article says "sizes larger than 32 inches". I would pay $2000 for a 40" OLED.

OK, so I'll buy that there's a small -- real -- market for $2000, 40" OLEDs. I doubt the market is real at $3000, but I'm with you if they make it work for $2000. Maybe their clever plan is to carve out that niche first. Not necessarily sustainable as an advantage, but a good way to drive production and work down the learning curve.

Anyway, if AUO dives in and Panasonic dives in, it will further increase the inevitability of the TV transition. And it's probably the best defense against the Chinese invading their already profitless LCD market.
David_B's Avatar David_B 08:08 AM 04-30-2012
*sigh*

Guess someone needs to tell lenovo that PMOLED is a "failure" and "everyone is running away from it".


http://www.slashgear.com/color-lenov...oled-21147640/



Quote:
Originally Posted by specuvestor View Post

Then the logic is incorrect. Tech developments had been littered with legal and IP issue, from software copyright to hardware IP infringement, in the past 30 years that I've been following the industry. OLED or even LCD are not invented by Koreans or Taiwanese. I don't even understand the lawsuit Oracle have on Google for Java (remember Open Office?)

It depends whether they have the foresight and fortitude to "stuck it out" (like you said). But without foresight, it's just a grind to financial hell, and we've seen so many of them. For every success story there are at least 9 that failed, but we don't read about it. We only read success. If board of Apple refuse to get Jobs back in 1996, Job's legacy would be a wannabe (Lisa and NeXt were not exactly a smashing commercial success) and Apple would be another Kodak. It's a fine line between zero and hero.

As such history had shown PMOLED was a total failure. It tried but didn't succeed and manufacturers avoided it like a plague, distancing themselves from bad publicity. To Sammy's credit, they continued to develop it. They were the hero in this case.

http://www.engadget.com/2008/12/16/s...rts-on-amoled/
-From 2008, note "small bucket of buyers"


specuvestor's Avatar specuvestor 08:47 AM 04-30-2012
Quote:
Originally Posted by David_B View Post

*sigh*

Guess someone needs to tell lenovo that PMOLED is a "failure" and "everyone is running away from it".


http://www.slashgear.com/color-lenov...oled-21147640/

Right... and everyone's running towards s800 then? It's a year old post...Have you got yours yet?

While Samsung mobile division been making tonnes of $ from AMOLED Galaxy S, I hardly hear Lenovo talk about PMOLED. I'll remind them the next time I talk to them.

*sigh*

By your measure E-Ink as a Display tech must be a mega success.
specuvestor's Avatar specuvestor 12:45 AM 05-04-2012
Samsung Galaxy S3 with 4.8" screen and 720p resolution, conveniently but probably pentile

http://crave.cnet.co.uk/mobiles/sams...ne-x-50007834/
irkuck's Avatar irkuck 01:56 AM 05-04-2012
^^ Microscoped and proved pentile. It is as good as a pentile can be but illustrating OLED has still manufacturing/cost issues since Samsung was not able to put RGB.
Tags: Led Hdtv , Lcd Hdtv , Plasma Hdtv , Oled Tv , Lg , Samsung
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