Originally Posted by specuvestor
^^ Price drop of 30% a year is reasonable, if 8G ramps. The above looks too aggressive
I'm with you on this. The 2-year "forecast" that presumes pricing will fall 70% from the starting price is the kind of thing that has few actual precedents in the history of making anything new. (And before anyone say, "what about iPhone?", Apple's price to carriers has more or less not changed in 5 years... The price we pay is not the real price there).
If we get back-to-back 30% drops, however, that would still be a substantial move toward parity in 2 years. It's just more like $4000 in 2014, not $2300. The latter price assumes the price is being sliced in half two years in a row. Could it happen? Maybe. Will it happen? Seems less likely although it's linked to production in at least two ways:
1) Without higher volumes, there's no way costs will be low enough to justify a price that low at that time. The "lose money on each, make it up on volume" strategy is what these guys are trying to avoid, not repeat.
2) Without the ability to produce many more, there is no real reason to drive the price that low. Selling out of $2300 displays when you could've sold them for $4000 is beyond stupid.
So we'll certainly see. In the meantime, the volumes this year seem headed for the forecast numbers of "thousands to maybe tens of thousands" globally. That's not enough to drive price on its own, but it's enough to get started with mastering production.