OLED TVs: Technology Advancements Thread - Page 202 - AVS Forum
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post #6031 of 10958 Old 06-10-2013, 04:54 PM
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Originally Posted by rogo View Post

The operative word is could.
I see no reason why it won't happen once there is a video format that supports the Rec. 2020 color space.

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Originally Posted by rogo View Post

I think you are vastly overestimate the number of productions that will be made in a larger colorspace given how few people will be able to play back the expanded colorspace. We already have these hypothetically expanded colorspaces on BluRay, in TVs, et al. but there is no one actually viewing them.
DLP, LCD, OLED, and Plasma can show a larger color space than Rec. 709 and I think the main reason it hasn't happened yet was due to the lack of a widely adopted standard. xvYCC was proprietary, was supported by only a few companies, and was limited because it had to be compatible with 8-bit video.

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Originally Posted by Chronoptimist View Post

That's true, but colors that we typically encounter are much narrower than that, and not that far beyond the BT.709 colorspace.

I seem to recall seeing a chart which showed the typical gamut of "everyday" colors, and it actually wasn't that far beyond the limits of BT.709, so I do wonder how significant moving to the BT.2020 gamut will be.
I thought it was in some of the early Quattron literature from when they were first launched, but I can't seem to find it now. (it was a CIE chart with a lot of data points marked on it, showing how the extra 10% colorspace from Quattron covered most of them)
The Rec. 709 color space covers 74.4% of Pointer's color space which is a color space of natural surface colors (nothing that was made by humans). So even for nature footage we are still missing out on 25.6% of the color space that can be seen by the human eye. Here is a link to an article on Super Hi-Vision which has a chart comparing various color spaces. Also here is a link to a document about the development of Rec. 2020 and section 3.2.6 is about the color space.
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post #6032 of 10958 Old 06-10-2013, 11:11 PM
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Originally Posted by Richard Paul View Post

I see no reason why it won't happen once there is a video format that supports the Rec. 2020 color space.

Call us when the format comes out, kk?
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DLP, LCD, OLED, and Plasma can show a larger color space than Rec. 709 and I think the main reason it hasn't happened yet was due to the lack of a widely adopted standard. xvYCC was proprietary, was supported by only a few companies, and was limited because it had to be compatible with 8-bit video.

So a bunch of TVs that can support a wider color space have been out for more than a decade, but there is no content. But OLED -- which has been vaporware for a decade -- is going to change this? Got it!

There is no difference in HDMI cables. If you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working.
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post #6033 of 10958 Old 06-11-2013, 06:20 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo View Post

Call us when the format comes out, kk?
So a bunch of TVs that can support a wider color space have been out for more than a decade, but there is no content. But OLED -- which has been vaporware for a decade -- is going to change this? Got it!
I'm surprised that you agree that 4K's requirement for new players means that H.265 will likely become the standard, but you don't think BT.2020 will happen at all. Why would they not do that?
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post #6034 of 10958 Old 06-11-2013, 06:34 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chronoptimist View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo View Post

Call us when the format comes out, kk?
So a bunch of TVs that can support a wider color space have been out for more than a decade, but there is no content. But OLED -- which has been vaporware for a decade -- is going to change this? Got it!
I'm surprised that you agree that 4K's requirement for new players means that H.265 will likely become the standard, but you don't think BT.2020 will happen at all. Why would they not do that?

I'll chime in here quickly not with Rogo's concern but with my concern I voiced else forum.

They probably will "do" 2020. But I think we're gold plating the tire irons a bit:
  1. No one but the uber purists is complaining that the color space doesn't "reach" enough of the real colors.
  2. A new color space will not fix goofed up colors from channel to channel vs. what's encoded on the blu-ray.
  3. Where the rubber meets the road is what the display itself can push. Regardless of the color model sent to the device, a red sub can only go 0 to full blast. Same for the green & blue. However the model itself divides that up is different than something magically waving a magic wand and changing the display itself. Even the crummiest of all color models can reach 0 to full blast.

The triangles showing the color model differences within the chromaticity diagram are not changing what the display itself is capable of outputting.

Grow milkweed. The Monarch Butterfly requires it, and its numbers are dwindling fast.
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post #6035 of 10958 Old 06-11-2013, 08:29 AM
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Originally Posted by tgm1024 View Post

No one but the uber purists is complaining that the color space doesn't "reach" enough of the real colors.
I often see "non-purists" with their TVs having all the processing turned up, oversaturating the image. So while the displays can currently go beyond the BT.709 gamut, they look incredibly unnatural when doing so - but a lot of people like the extra saturation. BT.2020 gives you more saturated color, without making it look like people are sunburnt etc.
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A new color space will not fix goofed up colors from channel to channel vs. what's encoded on the blu-ray.
I'm not sure what you mean by this.
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Originally Posted by tgm1024 View Post

Where the rubber meets the road is what the display itself can push. Regardless of the color model sent to the device, a red sub can only go 0 to full blast. Same for the green & blue. However the model itself divides that up is different than something magically waving a magic wand and changing the display itself. Even the crummiest of all color models can reach 0 to full blast.
See here.
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post #6036 of 10958 Old 06-11-2013, 05:02 PM
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Originally Posted by Chronoptimist View Post

I'm surprised that you agree that 4K's requirement for new players means that H.265 will likely become the standard, but you don't think BT.2020 will happen at all. Why would they not do that?

They're at totally different parts of the value chain, and they have different implications.

You can take any video and compress it into H.265. So long as the decoder exists, the viewer can see it, irrespective of display.

A wider colorspace means changing every single piece of the value chain. Anytime you work in the smaller colorspace: camera --> recording --> compression --> transmission / physical disc --> player --> display you lose the extra color info and can never recover it.

Understand what that means and you can see why even if the standard supports BT.2020 (and let's just agree it will), it might not reach people. If a content producer merely uses the smaller colorspace anywhere, that's what the user will see. If the user's display can only receive the smaller color information or process it, that's what the user will see.

Furthermore, there is the issue of "nice to have" vs. "need to have". You can't transmit 4K or package it without also moving to H.265. (Well, of course you can, but you can't get it to anywhere near as many people in anywhere near the quality you'll need to convince anyone that it actually looks any different.) The wider colorspace? What problem is that solving? The one where some tiny subset of colors we wish existed in video aren't able to be reproduced. But the vast majority of colors we want are already there in Rec.709. They just are.

There is no difference in HDMI cables. If you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working.
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post #6037 of 10958 Old 06-11-2013, 06:06 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo View Post

A wider colorspace means changing every single piece of the value chain. Anytime you work in the smaller colorspace: camera --> recording --> compression --> transmission / physical disc --> player --> display you lose the extra color info and can never recover it.
Content is not currently shot in BT.709 though, all of these transformations are already happening in production.

Cameras will shoot in their "native" colorspace that differs depending on the brand, which is then converted to DCI for Theaters, and BT.709 for Consumers.

Cameras such as the Sony F65 are already capturing much wider gamuts than even DCI supports:
TY60IXHs.jpg

So it will be simple for them to output to BT.2020 instead of BT.709 - it's actually less work, as it's more difficult to have things looking good when you are constraining the gamuts so much.
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Originally Posted by rogo View Post

Understand what that means and you can see why even if the standard supports BT.2020 (and let's just agree it will), it might not reach people. If a content producer merely uses the smaller colorspace anywhere, that's what the user will see. If the user's display can only receive the smaller color information or process it, that's what the user will see.
Actually, what usually happens with colorspace mismatches is that the image will either look very desaturated, or very oversaturated. Colors are essentially stored as percentage values rather than absolute values. So 100% red is different depending on the colorspace you assign them.

You won't "lose" that color information if it passes through something in the chain incorrectly - it just won't look right until you assign it the proper colorspace.
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Originally Posted by rogo View Post

Furthermore, there is the issue of "nice to have" vs. "need to have". You can't transmit 4K or package it without also moving to H.265. (Well, of course you can, but you can't get it to anywhere near as many people in anywhere near the quality you'll need to convince anyone that it actually looks any different.) The wider colorspace? What problem is that solving? The one where some tiny subset of colors we wish existed in video aren't able to be reproduced. But the vast majority of colors we want are already there in Rec.709. They just are.
Just like there's no point moving to 4K without H.265, there's no point moving to it without BT.2020 either.

BT.2020 is going to be far more noticeable to the general public than H.265 or the increase in resolution.
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post #6038 of 10958 Old 06-11-2013, 07:05 PM
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Samsung reportedly decided today to build a gen 6 OLED line expected to be operational by the end of this year. "The line is expected to produce panels for both TVs and mobile devices. The 6th generation line is capable of producing two pieces of panel for 55 inch TVs or tens of mobile device panels."

The gen 6 line is thought to be primarily for tablet size devices but can produce TVs as well. I think the gen 6 size could also produce two 65" TVs. This would make this the first real line (not pilot line) capable of making TVs and it would be ready before LG's line in the middle of next year. Oh, and "operational by the end of the year" means installed and ready to test not producing in volume. It would probably be 2nd quarter next year before you see products at the store from this line. Also, the volume is still small but growing. It also means Samsung will be using their RGB method and LTPS for their first TVs.
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post #6039 of 10958 Old 06-11-2013, 09:02 PM
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Originally Posted by rogo View Post

So a bunch of TVs that can support a wider color space have been out for more than a decade, but there is no content.
Sony released the first display that supported xvYCC in 2006. xvYCC is proprietary, supported by only a few companies, and has several limitations. The Rec. 2020 color space was made by the same organization that made the Rec. 709 color space which is the standard for all modern consumer displays.

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Originally Posted by rogo View Post

A wider colorspace means changing every single piece of the value chain. Anytime you work in the smaller colorspace: camera --> recording --> compression --> transmission / physical disc --> player --> display you lose the extra color info and can never recover it.
Professional equipment can already handle larger color spaces so the main obstacle is distribution.

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Originally Posted by Chronoptimist View Post

Cameras will shoot in their "native" colorspace that differs depending on the brand, which is then converted to DCI for Theaters, and BT.709 for Consumers.
To add to this the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences is currently developing ACES which has a color space that covers the entire visible spectrum. Here is a link to a document that has a brief explanation on ACES and while most studios are waiting for it to be completed a few movies have used it.
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post #6040 of 10958 Old 06-12-2013, 07:14 AM
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Low Manufacturing Yields to Keep Cost of AMOLED TV Panels High for Several Years, According to NPD DisplaySearch


Source: DisplaySearch

Santa Clara, California, June 12, 2013—The first 55" AMOLED TV is on the market, with others expected to follow; however, the cost of AMOLED panels will remain very high compared to TFT LCD display panels, limiting adoption by consumers. Current manufacturing costs for AMOLED (Active-Matrix Organic Light-Emitting Diode) display panels are estimated to be almost seven times higher than costs for the LCD panels that now dominate the TV market, according to the new NPD DisplaySearch Quarterly AMOLED Panel Cost Report.

“The estimated total manufacturing cost of a full-HD 55" panel is $2,454 in Q1’13, due to low manufacturing yields,” according to Tadashi Uno, Director of Materials and Components Market Research for NPD DisplaySearch. “As yields improve, the cost is expected to fall significantly over the next two years, but will remain much higher than equivalent LCD panels.”

AMOLED TV panel manufacturing yields (the fraction of panels produced that are useable) are lower than TFT LCDs, because AMOLED manufacturing processes are not mature. Materials, depreciation, personnel expenses, and other cost factors are highly related to yield rate; therefore, improving AMOLED yields quickly is the key factor for making AMOLED TVs competitive with LCD TVs. According to the NPD DisplaySearch cost model, the manufacturing cost for AMOLED TV panels is expected to fall by 36% from Q1’13 to Q1’14, but the panels will still cost five times as much as LCD TV panels. In 32" TV panels, the cost model also that AMOLED is only twice the cost of LCD. However 32" is a much more cost-sensitive segment of the market, so AMOLED is not competitive even with this much smaller premium.

[See website for graphic].
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post #6041 of 10958 Old 06-12-2013, 10:08 AM
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Samsung reportedly decided today to build a gen 6 OLED line expected to be operational by the end of this year. "The line is expected to produce panels for both TVs and mobile devices. The 6th generation line is capable of producing two pieces of panel for 55 inch TVs or tens of mobile device panels." The gen 6 line is thought to be primarily for tablet size devices but can produce TVs as well. I think the gen 6 size could also produce two 65" TVs. This would make this the first real line (not pilot line) capable of making TVs and it would be ready before LG's line in the middle of next year. Oh, and "operational by the end of the year" means installed and ready to test not producing in volume. It would probably be 2nd quarter next year before you see products at the store from this line. Also, the volume is still small but growing. It also means Samsung will be using their RGB method and LTPS for their first TVs.

Logic of this is clear: OLED TV panels will be kept as a side of mobile OLED panel manufacturing. This is economically sound but it means there is no way OLED will be significant in the TV market. Some 55" flagships are by far not sufficient against LCD armadas. So either there are significant manufacturing breakthroughs still waiting or OLED has missed the train.

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post #6042 of 10958 Old 06-12-2013, 10:37 AM
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Logic of this is clear: OLED TV panels will be kept as a side of mobile OLED panel manufacturing. This is economically sound but it means there is no way OLED will be significant in the TV market. Some 55" flagships are by far not sufficient against LCD armadas. So either there are significant manufacturing breakthroughs still waiting or OLED has missed the train.
Yep, it's called taking the path of least resistance, and that path seems to be LED/LCD. If OLED or something else can't come out and smack LED in the mouth from the get go then most manufactures won't risk the loss of profits. Not even for a couple of years. Just not enough return on investment.
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post #6043 of 10958 Old 06-12-2013, 12:20 PM
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Richard and Chron, great points both of you.

irkuck and Andy, spot on.

ynot, I read that as, "We are essentially not producing televisions this year or next year." The ability to occasionally repurpose a tablet/smartphone line to drop 2 TVs at a time suggests (a) they won't do that often (b) they won't be making many (any?) TVs when they do. This tells me a couple of things,

(1) They don't intend to ramp 8G production using their RGB method soon and likely ever. This further confirms it's just not workable.

(2) They don't intend to start selling OLED TVs in any kind of volume until at least 2015 if not later.

How anyone can read this as anything optimistic about widespread availability in 2014 is bizarre to me.

Doesn't specuvestor owe me a drink somewhere?!?

There is no difference in HDMI cables. If you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working.
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post #6044 of 10958 Old 06-12-2013, 12:43 PM
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Originally Posted by andy sullivan View Post

Yep, it's called taking the path of least resistance, and that path seems to be LED/LCD. If OLED or something else can't come out and smack LED in the mouth from the get go then most manufactures won't risk the loss of profits. Not even for a couple of years. Just not enough return on investment.

I agree. And a perfect example of this is full array back lit with local dimming sets. I consider my 70" Elite to look much better than the equivalent 70" edge lit TV. And it only cost about 5 times as much instead of the 7 for OLED. However, that picture improvement was not enough to create profits. The nearly 6 billion that Sharp lost last year was proof of that. That tech has been discontinued at Sharp and Sony.
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post #6045 of 10958 Old 06-12-2013, 12:59 PM
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The gen 6 line is thought to be primarily for tablet size devices but can produce TVs as well.

Where did this come from? I read the article and it's not in there. It seems many follow-on posts are assuming this is true, but is it really? How do you know the line isn't set up this way as an efficient way to produce both?
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post #6046 of 10958 Old 06-12-2013, 01:41 PM
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How anyone can read this as anything optimistic about widespread availability in 2014 is bizarre to me.

Doesn't specuvestor owe me a drink somewhere?!?

If you find him, he owes me $20 as well. smile.gif
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post #6047 of 10958 Old 06-12-2013, 03:40 PM
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Where did this come from? I read the article and it's not in there. It seems many follow-on posts are assuming this is true, but is it really? How do you know the line isn't set up this way as an efficient way to produce both?

Most large TVs are made on gen 7 and gen 8 lines for economies of scale. Gen 6 lines are generally considered ideal for mid size displays like tablets and laptops. Samsung has been wanting a gen 6 line for a while to move up from phone displays into tablets. They say it will produce both TVs and mobile devices and I have no reason to believe that won't be the case. Some follow on posts are making a different assumption that this implies Samsung won't build an 8g line. Samsung targeted 3 OLED investment decisions this year. A 5.5g expansion and now this 6g line have both occurred earlier than targeted. The final and completely separate decision on an 8g line isn't expected til closer to the end of the year with construction completion at the end of 2014. I'm amazed that there seems to be an expectation that either Samsung or LG can flood the market with OLED TVs before the production lines are built and failure to do so confirms they won't ever make them in volume? The fact that this article mentions TVs for the 6g line and it is being rushed to completion earlier than expected is more likely an indication they want to have some TV products available when LG's line is complete in the 2nd quarter of next year as they sense LG is gaining the perception of being the leader in OLED TVs.
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post #6048 of 10958 Old 06-12-2013, 05:00 PM
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Where did this come from? I read the article and it's not in there. It seems many follow-on posts are assuming this is true, but is it really? How do you know the line isn't set up this way as an efficient way to produce both?

You can only run a finite number of substrates per month through the line. A 6G line can't make many TVs period. And if you want to make lots of smartphone and tablet displays, you can't make many at all.
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I'm amazed that there seems to be an expectation that either Samsung or LG can flood the market with OLED TVs before the production lines are built and failure to do so confirms they won't ever make them in volume?

That's no one's assumption. The assumption is that: Despite hyping the "imminent release" of these TVs since early in 2012, the clear message from Samsung is this: We won't be shipping many (any?) until 2015. The very facts you are claiming to be in evidence (the 8G line not being finished until the end of 2014), due nothing but back up the assumption.
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The fact that this article mentions TVs for the 6g line and it is being rushed to completion earlier than expected is more likely an indication they want to have some TV products available when LG's line is complete in the 2nd quarter of next year as they sense LG is gaining the perception of being the leader in OLED TVs.

Where "some" = hundreds or perhaps single-digit thousands, with an outside production capability in the low double-digit thousands (annualized).

The idea they are still considering ramping SMS RGB for 8G seems beyond far-fetched to me, even if you consider it realistic. They clearly don't, or else they'd use an already well-perfected technique (they've shipped a lot of OLED displays) and at least ship some TVs. If they are really wanting to be perceived as a leader, they could simply ship period. The fact they aren't means even de minimis quantities using this production method are not forthcoming.

Again, Samsung showed off a TV in January 2012. They promised a production model soon. The lack of a single unit or a promised shipping date 17 months later speaks volumes.

There is no difference in HDMI cables. If you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working.
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post #6049 of 10958 Old 06-12-2013, 05:46 PM
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This is beginning to remind me of LCoS. Several companies tried it. Intel, after much entry fanfare, dropped out. Sony went to market (briefly) with, shall we say, a disappointing product. JVC was the only one to successfully produce LCoS. For RPTVs, although the product was good, the market moved against it (probably because it wasn't thin and "sexy"). But it is still used quite well for FPTVs today.

Might we not see some parallels with OLED?

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post #6050 of 10958 Old 06-12-2013, 05:58 PM
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Digitimes Research: AMOLED handset panel shipments to reach 363 million units in 2015
Source: Digitimes

Currently, smaphone is the most important application for AMOLED panels and has been fueling shipment growth. Digitimes predicts AMOLED handset panel shipments to grow to 363 million units in 2015, up 332% from the number in 2011. In 2015, AMOLED handset panel shipments will account for 88.7% of total AMOLED panel shipments and 79.5% of total AMOLED panel output value.

Handset AMOLED panel market growth has mainly been driven by strong support from South Korea-based Samsung Electronics, who has been eager to roll out smartphones with lighter and thinner form factors and higher-resolution displays.

TV is the second largest application for AMOLED panels and their shipments in 2015 are likely to account for 12.4% of total AMOLED panel output value, Digitimes Research predicts. In addition, LG Display and Samsung are expected to continue expanding their OLED TV panel capacity in 2014 and 2015, and hence by 2016, the TV segment's share of AMOLED panel output value is expected to increase significantly.

The key for OLED TV market demand to grow is to increase yields. Currently, the low yields for the panels are preventing system prices in the end market to go down. Digitimes Research expects yields to increase to the point where firms can obtain profits around 2014-2015. As the global LCD TV market faces saturation, looking for a blue ocean is a must for TV vendors. OLED TVs are higher-priced products that may keep their TV-related businesses growing in both revenues and profits, added Digitimes Research.
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post #6051 of 10958 Old 06-12-2013, 09:49 PM
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This is beginning to remind me of LCoS. Several companies tried it. Intel, after much entry fanfare, dropped out. Sony went to market (briefly) with, shall we say, a disappointing product. JVC was the only one to successfully produce LCoS. For RPTVs, although the product was good, the market moved against it (probably because it wasn't thin and "sexy"). But it is still used quite well for FPTVs today.

Might we not see some parallels with OLED?
I think that Sony had three years of models, the A2000, A2020, and the A3000. They had one major problem with light engines/optic blocks. The situation was pretty much fixed with the A3000 but by then Sony decided that the bigger profits were with LCD flat panels. I still have a 60A3000 which has a wonderful picture and compares very favorably with my 2013 Sony.
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post #6052 of 10958 Old 06-12-2013, 10:17 PM
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Originally Posted by rogo View Post

You can only run a finite number of substrates per month through the line. A 6G line can't make many TVs period. And if you want to make lots of smartphone and tablet displays, you can't make many at all.

Where "some" = hundreds or perhaps single-digit thousands, with an outside production capability in the low double-digit thousands (annualized).

It's not that you can't make large TVs from a 6g line, it's just not typical. We don't know their intended use of the line but it wouldn't be surprising if they started it with half TVs and half tablets until an 8g line starts. I'm a bit surprised they pushed up the 6g line as I expected it to be built for flexible displays for tablets which aren't ready yet. Perhaps they will build TVs until they get the flexible capability perfected and then convert the TV side to flexible displays. Sepcifically, you can make two 65" TVs from a 6g sheet. The stated capacity is somewhere between 20-40k sheets per month. My understanding is the yields on the 5.5g lines are well above 80-90% so 60% for a 6g line seems reasonable. At the lower capacity that would be 20k sheets * 2 TVs/sheet * 60% yield * 50% for TVs = 12k TVs/month. Of course that number would change based on the total capacity which would probably be higher and the product mix.
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Originally Posted by rogo View Post

That's no one's assumption. The assumption is that: Despite hyping the "imminent release" of these TVs since early in 2012, the clear message from Samsung is this: We won't be shipping many (any?) until 2015. The very facts you are claiming to be in evidence (the 8G line not being finished until the end of 2014), due nothing but back up the assumption.

My post wasn't specifically referring to your response but the general tenor of the responses as noted by Rich. Regarding Samsung in 2014 specifically (as opposed to LG), prior to this announcement I'm unclear how there could have been an expectation that there would have been significant volume in 2014. Let's start at the beginning. We can agree this is June 2013? How long does it take to build an 8g line... LG started their investment in February and it is expected to be built in q2 2014 so about 15 months would be a good answer. So if Samsung announced an 8g investment today and it took 15 months to build the line, then it's September 2014. Then they need to train the staff, work out startup issues, build some inventory, start filling the distribution channel. Another 3 months for that? So that's December 2014. How could they ship significant volume in 2014 if they just get started in December 2014? This announcement makes it possible if they choose to do so to have a greater volume in 2014 than they would have before this announcement. On the other hand, LG should have 6 months of production on a larger line so that should be most of the volume in 2014.
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The idea they are still considering ramping SMS RGB for 8G seems beyond far-fetched to me, even if you consider it realistic. They clearly don't, or else they'd use an already well-perfected technique (they've shipped a lot of OLED displays) and at least ship some TVs. If they are really wanting to be perceived as a leader, they could simply ship period. The fact they aren't means even de minimis quantities using this production method are not forthcoming

I may not understand the intent here but it sounds like you're saying they can't possibly make improvements in 8g size production technology? A few years ago they said vapor deposition wasn't possible at greater than 4g size lines. Neither of us knows for sure what Samsung's technology will be. The RGB system has fewer materials so if the yield is the same as WRGB, the cost would be lower. Aside from the yield issue though the blue lifetime would be an issue for RGB.
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Originally Posted by rogo View Post

The assumption is that: Despite hyping the "imminent release" of these TVs since early in 2012.

Again, Samsung showed off a TV in January 2012. They promised a production model soon. The lack of a single unit or a promised shipping date 17 months later speaks volumes.

I think we all get that many are not happy about CES 2012 but, really, that was a year and a half ago. Isn't it about time to move on from that?
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post #6053 of 10958 Old 06-12-2013, 11:57 PM
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Originally Posted by ynotgoal View Post

It's not that you can't make large TVs from a 6g line, it's just not typical.

Actually, it is that you can't. There are always limits on the number of substrates you can feed through the line in a month (the "Herbie" problem, Read this book) . You can reasonably assume the line won't output more than 60,000 substrates per month. If you use half its capacity to make TVs, you get 30,000 x 2 x yield TVs per month. That's 720,000 annually x the yield, which is likely to be under 1/2 in the first year.

It also decimates your capability to make other things there.
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We don't know their intended use of the line but it wouldn't be surprising if they started it with half TVs and half tablets until an 8g line starts.

It would floor me.
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I'm a bit surprised they pushed up the 6g line as I expected it to be built for flexible displays for tablets which aren't ready yet. Perhaps they will build TVs until they get the flexible capability perfected and then convert the TV side to flexible displays. Sepcifically, you can make two 65" TVs from a 6g sheet. The stated capacity is somewhere between 20-40k sheets per month. My understanding is the yields on the 5.5g lines are well above 80-90% so 60% for a 6g line seems reasonable. At the lower capacity that would be 20k sheets * 2 TVs/sheet * 60% yield * 50% for TVs = 12k TVs/month. Of course that number would change based on the total capacity which would probably be higher and the product mix.

What yields are above 80-90%? Not for TVs. Those yields are clearly more like 8-9%. If the yields on TV panels were 80-90%, Samsung would be selling TVs.
Quote:
My post wasn't specifically referring to your response but the general tenor of the responses as noted by Rich. Regarding Samsung in 2014 specifically (as opposed to LG), prior to this announcement I'm unclear how there could have been an expectation that there would have been significant volume in 2014. Let's start at the beginning. We can agree this is June 2013? How long does it take to build an 8g line... LG started their investment in February and it is expected to be built in q2 2014 so about 15 months would be a good answer. So if Samsung announced an 8g investment today and it took 15 months to build the line, then it's September 2014. Then they need to train the staff, work out startup issues, build some inventory, start filling the distribution channel. Another 3 months for that? So that's December 2014. How could they ship significant volume in 2014 if they just get started in December 2014? This announcement makes it possible if they choose to do so to have a greater volume in 2014 than they would have before this announcement. On the other hand, LG should have 6 months of production on a larger line so that should be most of the volume in 2014.

So without doing any math, I'm going to just put it this way: LG and Samsung together will ship fewer than 500,000 OLED TVs next year. That seems almost 100% certain.
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I may not understand the intent here but it sounds like you're saying they can't possibly make improvements in 8g size production technology? A few years ago they said vapor deposition wasn't possible at greater than 4g size lines. Neither of us knows for sure what Samsung's technology will be. The RGB system has fewer materials so if the yield is the same as WRGB, the cost would be lower. Aside from the yield issue though the blue lifetime would be an issue for RGB.

I'm saying SMS is fundamentally a bad method on large substrates. It's really, really slow and the alignment issues are huge. I don't believe they intend to scale it and part of the reason they haven't built anything faster is that they've tried to get it working on large substrates and found it it never will. SMS is a kludge.
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I think we all get that many are not happy about CES 2012 but, really, that was a year and a half ago. Isn't it about time to move on from that?

I've moved on. I own a 2012 plasma and told my wife "we might even get another plasma at this rate" because OLED production is such a joke and a 65-70" seems really, really far out -- especially at sub $4000. My point is these folks have no credibility. None. And announcements about production lines that maybe, possibly could be use to make a few TVs but are clearly targeted at mobile devices don't buy them credibility.

What will buy them credibility is shipping TVs. Period.

There is no difference in HDMI cables. If you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working.
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post #6054 of 10958 Old 06-13-2013, 01:45 AM
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Dell Canada is now shipping (if you have $14K). 55" LG OLED

http://accessories.dell.com/sna/products/Video_Conferencing/productdetail.aspx?c=ca&l=en&s=dhs&cs=cadhs1&sku=A6820882

In case you don't wish to click the link, Dells blurb below:

Highlights

•OLED

✓4 Color Pixel
✓ Inifinte Constrast
✓ Universal Control
✓ No thicker than a pencil





•LG Smart TV


Easy to Use
✓ Magic Remote
✓ Universal Control
✓On Now
✓Built-In Wi-Fi
✓Dual Core Processor

Easy to Enjoy
✓ Premium Content
✓Game World
✓LG Smart World (App Store)

Easy to Connect
✓Smart Share
✓LG Cloud
✓Miracast
✓NFC
✓WiDi
✓MHL

LG Cinema 3D
✓ Cinema 3D Glasses
✓Dual Play
✓2D to 3D Conversion
✓3D World
✓3D Depth Control
✓3D Sound Zooming




Overview

Stunning design and stunning picture quality with Infinite Contrast and 4 Color Pixel technology that displays more true to life images. LG's 4 Color Pixel technology adds the color white to the conventional 3 color sources to enhance accuracy for more true to life and vibrant colors. LG's intuitive Magic Remote is a simple and fun way to pick and choose what you want to watch from premium content providers like Hulu Plus®, Netflix® and YouTube® directly from your TV. The Magic Remote is all you need to control your TV and entertainment systems. Simply click, gesture, scroll or use LG's unique Voice™ that is capable of recognizing how you naturally speak to change the channel or find something to watch. Now, you can spend less time navigating and more time enjoying your entertainment. LG’s dual core processor provides fast access to Internet content and enhances processing speed. Mirror files from your Smartphone, tablet and other devices with MiracastTM to your TV. LG Cinema 3D glasses are comfortable, lightweight, battery-free. 4 sets of glasses included.

Manufacturer Part# : 55EM9700
Dell Part# : A6820882

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post #6055 of 10958 Old 06-13-2013, 02:06 AM
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Originally Posted by PCD View Post

Dell Canada is now shipping (if you have $14K). 55" LG OLED

http://accessories.dell.com/sna/products/Video_Conferencing/productdetail.aspx?c=ca&l=en&s=dhs&cs=cadhs1&sku=A6820882

Hasn't this been listed there since at least April? Until it says ships in 1-2 days like all their other TV's, I'm not going to assume it's shipping any time soon. But I invite anyone in Canada to order and find out. wink.gif
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post #6056 of 10958 Old 06-13-2013, 02:10 AM
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Originally Posted by Wizziwig View Post

Hasn't this been listed there since at least April? Until it says ships in 1-2 days like all their other TV's, I'm not going to assume it's shipping any time soon. But I invite anyone in Canada to order and find out. wink.gif

No

It was "out of stock" previously

They also removed the $20k panel.

@Wizz....I would love to order one, but the price rather offends me smile.gif. I fully get the early adopter pays for the rest of us mentality, but if I were going to blow 2 months salary like that, I'd rather take a month long vacation or something. There are people that DO have that type of coin to throw on a TV though, especially in Toronto where a "cheap" condo starts at 500k anywhere half decent. Alas, I am not one of them wink.gif

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post #6057 of 10958 Old 06-13-2013, 05:54 AM
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Originally Posted by PCD View Post

Dell Canada is now shipping (if you have $14K). 55" LG OLED

This is quite a milestone. This is the first large consumer OLED TV I've seen for sale in North America. Of course, I don't know when they are shipping but if this was intentional rather than a mistake and they really intend to start to take orders, I think that's exciting.
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post #6058 of 10958 Old 06-13-2013, 06:06 AM
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Originally Posted by Rich Peterson 
Low Manufacturing Yields to Keep Cost of AMOLED TV Panels High for Several Years, According to NPD DisplaySearch


Source: DisplaySearch

Santa Clara, California, June 12, 2013—The first 55" AMOLED TV is on the market, with others expected to follow; however, the cost of AMOLED panels will remain very high compared to TFT LCD display panels, limiting adoption by consumers. Current manufacturing costs for AMOLED (Active-Matrix Organic Light-Emitting Diode) display panels are estimated to be almost seven times higher than costs for the LCD panels that now dominate the TV market, according to the new NPD DisplaySearch Quarterly AMOLED Panel Cost Report.

“The estimated total manufacturing cost of a full-HD 55" panel is $2,454 in Q1’13, due to low manufacturing yields,” according to Tadashi Uno, Director of Materials and Components Market Research for NPD DisplaySearch. “As yields improve, the cost is expected to fall significantly over the next two years, but will remain much higher than equivalent LCD panels.”

AMOLED TV panel manufacturing yields (the fraction of panels produced that are useable) are lower than TFT LCDs, because AMOLED manufacturing processes are not mature. Materials, depreciation, personnel expenses, and other cost factors are highly related to yield rate; therefore, improving AMOLED yields quickly is the key factor for making AMOLED TVs competitive with LCD TVs. According to the NPD DisplaySearch cost model, the manufacturing cost for AMOLED TV panels is expected to fall by 36% from Q1’13 to Q1’14, but the panels will still cost five times as much as LCD TV panels. In 32" TV panels, the cost model also that AMOLED is only twice the cost of LCD. However 32" is a much more cost-sensitive segment of the market, so AMOLED is not competitive even with this much smaller premium.

[See website for graphic].

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post #6059 of 10958 Old 06-13-2013, 09:47 AM
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Extrapolating that graph puts price parity out in 2017. I recognize that's dangerous, but it sounds right.

There is no difference in HDMI cables. If you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working.
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post #6060 of 10958 Old 06-13-2013, 01:04 PM
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Originally Posted by andy sullivan View Post

I think that Sony had three years of models, the A2000, A2020, and the A3000. They had one major problem with light engines/optic blocks. The situation was pretty much fixed with the A3000 but by then Sony decided that the bigger profits were with LCD flat panels. I still have a 60A3000 which has a wonderful picture and compares very favorably with my 2013 Sony.

So you're the one that still has one working! wink.gif

I think the BLOB destroyed Sony's rep for LCoS and scared off buyers, fixed or not.


I think OLED use in tablets will be very interesting to follow. 7", 10", .......

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