Originally Posted by ynotgoal
It's not that you can't make large TVs from a 6g line, it's just not typical.
Actually, it is that you can't. There are always
limits on the number of substrates you can feed through the line in a month (the "Herbie" problem, Read this book
) . You can reasonably assume the line won't output more than 60,000 substrates per month. If you use half its capacity to make TVs, you get 30,000 x 2 x yield TVs per month. That's 720,000 annually x the yield, which is likely to be under 1/2 in the first year.
It also decimates your capability to make other things there.
We don't know their intended use of the line but it wouldn't be surprising if they started it with half TVs and half tablets until an 8g line starts.
It would floor me.
I'm a bit surprised they pushed up the 6g line as I expected it to be built for flexible displays for tablets which aren't ready yet. Perhaps they will build TVs until they get the flexible capability perfected and then convert the TV side to flexible displays. Sepcifically, you can make two 65" TVs from a 6g sheet. The stated capacity is somewhere between 20-40k sheets per month. My understanding is the yields on the 5.5g lines are well above 80-90% so 60% for a 6g line seems reasonable. At the lower capacity that would be 20k sheets * 2 TVs/sheet * 60% yield * 50% for TVs = 12k TVs/month. Of course that number would change based on the total capacity which would probably be higher and the product mix.
What yields are above 80-90%? Not for TVs. Those yields are clearly more like 8-9%. If the yields on TV panels were 80-90%, Samsung would be selling TVs.
My post wasn't specifically referring to your response but the general tenor of the responses as noted by Rich. Regarding Samsung in 2014 specifically (as opposed to LG), prior to this announcement I'm unclear how there could have been an expectation that there would have been significant volume in 2014. Let's start at the beginning. We can agree this is June 2013? How long does it take to build an 8g line... LG started their investment in February and it is expected to be built in q2 2014 so about 15 months would be a good answer. So if Samsung announced an 8g investment today and it took 15 months to build the line, then it's September 2014. Then they need to train the staff, work out startup issues, build some inventory, start filling the distribution channel. Another 3 months for that? So that's December 2014. How could they ship significant volume in 2014 if they just get started in December 2014? This announcement makes it possible if they choose to do so to have a greater volume in 2014 than they would have before this announcement. On the other hand, LG should have 6 months of production on a larger line so that should be most of the volume in 2014.
So without doing any math, I'm going to just put it this way: LG and Samsung together will ship fewer than 500,000 OLED TVs next year. That seems almost 100% certain.
I may not understand the intent here but it sounds like you're saying they can't possibly make improvements in 8g size production technology? A few years ago they said vapor deposition wasn't possible at greater than 4g size lines. Neither of us knows for sure what Samsung's technology will be. The RGB system has fewer materials so if the yield is the same as WRGB, the cost would be lower. Aside from the yield issue though the blue lifetime would be an issue for RGB.
I'm saying SMS is fundamentally a bad method on large substrates. It's really, really slow and the alignment issues are huge. I don't believe they intend to scale it and part of the reason they haven't built anything faster is that they've tried to get it working on large substrates and found it it never will. SMS is a kludge.
I think we all get that many are not happy about CES 2012 but, really, that was a year and a half ago. Isn't it about time to move on from that?
I've moved on. I own a 2012 plasma and told my wife "we might even get another plasma at this rate" because OLED production is such a joke and a 65-70" seems really, really far out -- especially at sub $4000. My point is these folks have no credibility. None. And announcements about production lines that maybe, possibly could be use to make a few TVs but are clearly targeted at mobile devices don't buy them credibility.
What will buy them credibility is shipping TVs. Period.