OLED TVs: Technology Advancements Thread - Page 352 - AVS Forum
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post #10531 of 10975 Old 07-26-2014, 08:24 AM
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Originally Posted by JimP View Post
That's the other shoe many of us are waiting to drop.

Which brings up a question. How long does it take for time related issues such as burn in and IR to occur before its safe to go out and buy one?????
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Who knows.. Sometimes we are in a rush to bring these new technologies to market before we really should
I really think that some products just don't lend themselves well to a yearly release cycle. Shows tick off like clockwork every year, and every year there is this pressure to release something new or be viewed as out of the game. It's really absurd, but unfortunately seems the way of things.
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post #10532 of 10975 Old 07-26-2014, 03:37 PM
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post #10533 of 10975 Old 07-26-2014, 05:10 PM
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In case this has not been posted yet: http://global.ofweek.com/news/LG-Dis...-screens-15406


begin quote


“LCD has no future. The Chinese can make even ultra high-definition TVs at lower costs,” says Oh Chang-ho, senior vice-president of LG’s OLED TV development division. “We cannot win this price war. For survival, we have to make products that they cannot make.”


...

“LG has resolved most of the technological challenges but high prices remain a problem for OLED TVs to reach the mass market,” says Soh Hyun-chul, an analyst at Shinhan Investment. LG’s 55-inch full HD curved OLED TVs cost $4,999, while its same-size ultra high-definition LCD TVs go for $2,999.

Mr Oh forecasts 2017 will be the year OLED TVs hit the big time, as rising production finally brings prices down to affordable levels. Market researcher IHS Technology forecasts OLED TV shipments to grow from 92,000 units this year to 9m units in 2019.

Many analysts are less sanguine. While they expect Samsung Display to eventually join LG in the race – even if only to avoid falling behind – they caution that OLED is unlikely to replace LCD any time soon.

“Consumers will not buy OLED TVs no matter how high quality the products are if they are expensive,” says Jerry Kang, an analyst at IHS.

“The question is how far and how fast prices can be cut. If they can’t find a low-cost way to produce OLEDs, we cannot rule out the possibility that the technology may face the same fate as plasma.”

end quote


Hard to find a 55" 1080p for $2999 anywhere, while LGs flagship 55" 1080p TV, the 55UB9500, can be found for under $2000...


So while the article implies that the premium for WOLED over LED/LCD is currently only 67% (1.7X), at $5000 for the WOLED, it's more like 150% (2.5X).


And the reference to 2017 being the 'year of OLED' rather than 2016 as has been stated in the past, is disturbing. To say the least - LG WOLED may not make it that long if they can not sell the full M2 production of 1.5M 55" WOLEDs (or equivalent) in 2016...
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post #10534 of 10975 Old 07-27-2014, 07:05 AM
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Originally Posted by fafrd
“LCD has no future. The Chinese can make even ultra high-definition TVs at lower costs,” says Oh Chang-ho, senior vice-president of LG’s OLED TV development division. “We cannot win this price war. For survival, we have to make products that they cannot make.”
LG LCd has not future because the chinese can make them at lower costs. For survival LG must make products that the chinese cannot make.


Is this is the drive behind LG OLED..survival?
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post #10535 of 10975 Old 07-27-2014, 10:48 AM
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LG LCd has not future because the chinese can make them at lower costs. For survival LG must make products that the chinese cannot make.


Is this is the drive behind LG OLED..survival?
By the way, neither Kateeva (equipment) nor Merck (the ones who are behind Kateeva and who can and are gonna supply OLED materials ( singles from which OLED materials are made) for printing ) believe that there's a lot of money in TV making.

I remember attending a presentation by Merck years ago back in 2009, if memory serves right, Merck said that OLED was all about lighting, a "futuristic" light bulb that can go on for millions of hours on end that can't be broken by a 20 foot fall and draws just a fraction of what a traditional light bulb draws power-wise. It's kinda funny and tragic at the same to see how they are not saying such things about OLEDs any more after a billion of R&D money spent...

Here's an interesting article about OLED printing http://www.forbes.com/sites/markrogo...ont-be-an-lcd/

....

Last edited by stas3098; 07-27-2014 at 10:58 AM.
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post #10536 of 10975 Old 07-27-2014, 01:40 PM
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If OLED lighting last lifetimes, how is it such an attractive ROI?

GE didn't make money by making light bulbs which were never replaced.
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post #10537 of 10975 Old 07-27-2014, 02:05 PM
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Originally Posted by 8mile13 View Post
LG LCd has not future because the chinese can make them at lower costs. For survival LG must make products that the chinese cannot make.


Is this is the drive behind LG OLED..survival?
Name a non Chinese LCD brand that can compete in prices with China. If we take the time to think about it, yeah, LG's may be doing a smart move.
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post #10538 of 10975 Old 07-27-2014, 02:59 PM
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Name a non Chinese LCD brand that can compete in prices with China. If we take the time to think about it, yeah, LG's may be doing a smart move.
Vizio
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post #10539 of 10975 Old 07-27-2014, 03:30 PM
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Vizio
Yes. As far as I know Vizio only sells their tvs in USA.
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post #10540 of 10975 Old 07-27-2014, 04:22 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Morning5;
Name a non Chinese LCD brand that can compete in prices with China. If we take the time to think about it, yeah, LG's may be doing a smart move.
right. maybe.. doing a smart move, maybe OLED wil be going the way of Plasma - once promising technology that has been expensive to develop and utimately not wide adopted.

The thing is LG OLED undertaken comes across here as being an act of desperation instead of confidence. I never looked at it that way.
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post #10541 of 10975 Old 07-27-2014, 05:13 PM
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right. maybe.. doing a smart move, maybe OLED wil be going the way of Plasma - once promising technology that has been expensive to develop and utimately not wide adopted.

The thing is LG OLED undertaken comes across here as being an act of desperation instead of confidence. I never looked at it that way.
I'm not sure, but I think a lot of people didn't buy Plasmas cause they found them dim and not as bright as LCDs. Not all people calibrate their tvs, a lot of them like their tvs in torch mode, ultra bright. Only issue with OLED right now, is Image Retention.

Well, at least LG has managed to keep producing WOLEDS. We cannot say the same for Samsung's RGB OLED. Blue color's short life?
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post #10542 of 10975 Old 07-27-2014, 05:35 PM
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If OLED lighting last lifetimes, how is it such an attractive ROI?

GE didn't make money by making light bulbs which were never replaced.
Well, high end LEDs already offer over 70,000 hours to 70 percent of its original brightness and MTBF of 100,000 hours which is about 70 times more than incandescent lighting devices do.

http://www.lumec.com/newsletter/architect_06-08/led.htm

....
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post #10543 of 10975 Old 07-28-2014, 02:07 AM
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Here's an interesting article about OLED printing http://www.forbes.com/sites/markrogo...ont-be-an-lcd/
That is an interesting article


There is no difference in HDMI cables. If you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working.
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post #10544 of 10975 Old 07-28-2014, 03:52 AM
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Originally Posted by 8mile13 View Post
LG LCd has not future because the chinese can make them at lower costs. For survival LG must make products that the chinese cannot make.


Is this is the drive behind LG OLED..survival?
Why exactly will the Chinese not make OLEDs too?

Doesn't seem that difficult. They could use the Kateeva machines or steal the tech from LG and they're on their way.

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Last edited by JimP; 07-28-2014 at 04:10 AM.
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post #10545 of 10975 Old 07-28-2014, 06:50 AM
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That is an interesting article

Well written article rogo.

Thought you were taller, though.

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post #10546 of 10975 Old 07-28-2014, 07:01 AM
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That is an interesting article

LOL, by the way. Your caption under the pic in the Michael Bay Meltdown article: "LG’s $70,000 105-inch TV. Model not included."
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post #10547 of 10975 Old 07-28-2014, 11:01 AM
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right. maybe.. doing a smart move, maybe OLED wil be going the way of Plasma - once promising technology that has been expensive to develop and utimately not wide adopted.

The thing is LG OLED undertaken comes across here as being an act of desperation instead of confidence. I never looked at it that way.

Here's a quote from another must-read
http://www.forbes.com/sites/markrogo...rate-industry/




Sony, for its part, had a more polished presentation to talk up “4K,” the increased resolution that will be coming soon to a TV near you — or at least a TV in China. Like 3D before it, the cost to add the additional pixels to your TV is low, so most sets will eventually be built with 4K inside. In the meantime, the technology is getting popular in China quickly because domestic brands there are selling it especially cheaply. Elsewhere, the old guard is hoping the additional margin from selling it will prop out their flagging profits. Those Chinese brands, on the other hand, are planning on taking their low prices worldwide, as the Koreans once did to the Japanese. And the Japanese once did to the Americans.


In the meantime, everyone hopes you’ll even notice the difference in picture quality.

By the way, I've underlined the most interesting part

....

Last edited by stas3098; 07-28-2014 at 11:11 AM.
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post #10548 of 10975 Old 07-28-2014, 11:29 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JimP
Why exactly will the Chinese not make OLEDs too?

Doesn't seem that difficult. They could use the Kateeva machines or steal the tech from LG and they're on their way.
right. By the time the chinese take over OLED LG is working on a new tech. Desperation is the drive..
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Here's a quote from another must-read
http://www.forbes.com/sites/markrogo...rate-industry/




Sony, for its part, had a more polished presentation to talk up “4K,” the increased resolution that will be coming soon to a TV near you — or at least a TV in China. Like 3D before it, the cost to add the additional pixels to your TV is low, so most sets will eventually be built with 4K inside. In the meantime, the technology is getting popular in China quickly because domestic brands there are selling it especially cheaply. Elsewhere, the old guard is hoping the additional margin from selling it will prop out their flagging profits. Those Chinese brands, on the other hand, are planning on taking their low prices worldwide, as the Koreans once did to the Japanese. And the Japanese once did to the Americans.


In the meantime, everyone hopes you’ll even notice the difference in picture quality.

By the way, I've underlined the most interesting part
I am still waiting for rogo to start a thread on that important subject - Japanse take over from americans, koreans take over from japanese, chinese taking over from koreans. And of course the alien invasion, when the aliens take over from the chinese - so we can post 'when another one bites the dust' in one place.
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post #10549 of 10975 Old 07-28-2014, 12:01 PM
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right. By the time the chinese take over OLED LG is working on a new tech. Desperation is the drive..

I am still waiting for rogo to start a thread on that important subject - Japanse take over from americans, koreans take over from japanese, chinese taking over from koreans. And of course the alien invasion, when the aliens take over from the chinese - so we can post 'when another one bites the dust' in one place.
The worst that could've happened would be if those aliens took over from the Chinese with even cheaper 8k LCDs with barely noticeable differences in PQ

....
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post #10550 of 10975 Old 07-31-2014, 12:03 PM
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Dr. Taewon Kim’s team
developed an original technology to refine organic light-emitting materials in bulk for fine OLED TV at low price
and it can solve issues of high cost·low yield rate arisen in production of the organic light-emitting material for the OLED TV

Dr. Taewon Kim, said, “this technology increased the yield rate and decreased the production cost by more than 50%. And an ultimate goal is to reduce the current price by one tenth” and “technology development is in progress with companies.” He also said, “the success is a game changer with enormous potential to turn the OLED TV market-to-explosively grow” and “based on the low-cost and large scale refining original technology, domestic businesses will largely contribute to preoccupy the global market of forward-backward industry regarding the OLED TV.”

http://olednet.com/eng/sub02.php?mid...uid=182&ctg1=2
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post #10551 of 10975 Old 07-31-2014, 03:46 PM
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Dr. Taewon Kim, said, “this technology increased the yield rate and decreased the production cost by more than 50%. And an ultimate goal is to reduce the current price by one tenth”
Reducing the current price by "one tenth" doesn't seem like much. Could there be a translation problem?

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Reducing the current price by "one tenth" doesn't seem like much. Could there be a translation problem?

Probably - I took it to mean reducing the price to 'one tenth' below comparable LED/LCD.


At most, I expect it meant reducing the price to 'one tenth' more than comparable LED/LCD.


So either 0.9X or 1.1X comparable LED/LCD pricing rather than 0.9X current OLED pricing.


Wouldn't hold my breath, though...
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post #10553 of 10975 Old 07-31-2014, 05:20 PM
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Wouldn't hold my breath, though...
I'm breathing deep, and conducting sacrificial ceremonies in front of our Kuro three times each day.

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post #10554 of 10975 Old 07-31-2014, 07:34 PM
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Does sound wierd. You reduce production cost by 50% but only reduce price for the tv by 10%. Maybe they want big profit margins for couple years to pay for the start up of OLED. Unless the are saying 50% is just one slice of the product like OLED materials.
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post #10555 of 10975 Old 08-02-2014, 06:50 AM
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JOLED Inc


Tokyo,Juli 31, 2014--Innovation Network Corporation of Japan, Japan Display Inc, Sony Corporation, and Panasonic Corporation announced today that they have executed a definitive agreement to establish a new company, JOLED Inc, to integrate Sony and Panasonic's R&D functions for organic light-emitting diode display panels.
Through this collaboration, the companies aim to accelerate the development and early commercialization of OLED display panels.
JOLED is scheduled to be launched in January 2015, subject to receipt of any necessary approvals.


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post #10556 of 10975 Old 08-03-2014, 03:11 PM
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Did you know guys know that the process of producing OLED materials involves over 20 unit-operations performed on three difference continents? Come on guys, logistics alone would never allow for a 50 percent price drop not until UDC and EMD ramp up their US production facilities which won't happen until there's enough orders. Basically what I'm saying is that the more OLED materials are getting bought the lower the price on them will get. Economies of scale in action.

....
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post #10557 of 10975 Old 08-04-2014, 04:48 PM
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I have discussed several times the challenge here for "economies of scale" to kick in.

You need this cycle volume --> lower prices --> more volumes --> lower prices --> repeat.

But when there is already a perfectly adequate substitute good (i.e. the LCD), the process of even getting to "volume" is challenging. What LG is trying to do is go straight to "lower prices" in an attempt to get "more volumes," but so far that hasn't happened.

That doesn't mean it won't but it's very, very hard.

There is no difference in HDMI cables. If you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working.
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post #10558 of 10975 Old 08-05-2014, 02:40 PM
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It sounds like LG is not planning to have M2 up to full capacity before late 2015: http://olednet.com/eng/sub02.php?mid...uid=181&ctg1=4


"OLEDNET | 2014.07.30
OLED TV market is expected to begin flourishing from the end of 2015.
At the presentation of LG Display’s performance in Q2 held on 23rd at LG Twin-Tower, Yeouido, an executive director of strategic marketing group of LG Display (LGD), Youngkwon Song, emphasized, “LGD is putting efforts to realize the economy of scale and to cut cost including lowering material cost regarding the OLED TV business” and “a significant condition will be developed by the end of 2015 and early 2016.”
Mr. Don Kim, the CFO and a senior vice president of LGD said that “from our point of view on the OLED, the current levels of expected performance and yield rate are at satisfaible level, but innovation in pricing is what we concentrate more” and “by the end of 2015 or early 2016, when the operation is in full capa., we can reach the economy of scale and bring a significant performance.” Mr. Kim also hinted a soon-to-be bloomed of LGD’s OLED TV market.
LGD started supplying panels for the OLED TV to major Chinese TV set makers and plans to operate M2 line for mass-production in this third quarter. It also continuously leads the OLED market with scheduled launch of 55”/65”/77” curved UHD OLED TV.
In the meantime, sales for Q2 in 2014 was 5.979 trillion won which is declined by 9% from the Q2 in 2013 but increased by 7% from the Q1 in 2014. And operating profit was recorded surplus consecutively for nine quarters at 163.1 billion won."
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post #10559 of 10975 Old 08-05-2014, 02:58 PM
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An interesting comment made by AUO in their Q2 earnings call: http://seekingalpha.com/article/2362...pt?part=single


"I know that LCD TV has a much lower cost than OLED TVs. In terms of the differences in feature and performances, I think it really depends on the preferences of the customers. With the exception of response time, I think LCD TV is quite similar to OLED TVs. So if we look at, for example, the price comparison at the moment, LCD TV still have an advantage over OLED TVs."
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post #10560 of 10975 Old 08-05-2014, 03:06 PM
 
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Very UNinteresting to me (and not even the whole truth). That's all his firm makes. Of course he wants to play down alternatives. To hell with him.
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