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post #11491 of 11518 Old 12-15-2014, 07:40 AM
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[QUOTE=rogo;29925785]They've already built the M2 plant, but it's not exactly huge. It wouldn't supply even 1% of the world's TV demand. It's not fully ramped up yet (information indicates it just started production), but it will help close the cost gap. It has no real chance of eliminating it./QUOTE]

Useful information suggesting that 77 inch screens will not fall below $5,000 dollars for a few years. I realize any estimate of time and cost is pure conjecture but at least there is a commitment to continue development.
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post #11492 of 11518 Old 12-15-2014, 06:54 PM
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Originally Posted by tgm1024 View Post
Funny you brought this up. Most of the diagrams that I've seen that came directly from the kodak patents and white papers on the layered design show the light emitting downward (though I have seen both). But as soon as a 3rd and 4th parties got a hold of that information, the diagrams seemed to have become 100% diagrammed as upward emitting.

Perhaps at least part of the confusion came around when the diagrams labeled a prominent "glass layer" on them, and people confused that with the facing glass of the display, when it was likely the substrate they were referring to. (?)
I can't comment on what's shown on diagrams I'm not looking at.

I can comment a bit on the fact that early OLED designs were bottom emission mostly (entirely?). There's been a move away from that and toward top emission, which should allow for brighter (more power efficient displays). Sony, for example, made a point of trashing bottom emission back when it duped people (some people) it had an intention of making OLED displays when it showed off the 4K prototype.

LG has some recent-ish patent concerning top emission:

http://www.4-traders.com/LG-DISPLAY-...-Hav-18930895/

It seems like as the process tech is perfected, this becomes more realistic to do at scale, but that's speculation.

There is no difference in HDMI cables. If you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working. (Oh, and plasma didn't die because of logistics problems, nor does OLED ship in big boxes because it comes from Korea.)
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post #11493 of 11518 Old 12-15-2014, 07:05 PM
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Originally Posted by rogo View Post
Sony, for example, made a point of trashing bottom emission back when it duped people (some people) it had an intention of making OLED displays when it showed off the 4K prototype.
Umm...

https://pro.sony.com/bbsc/ssr/micro-oled/

I think you should correct your post to say "OLED TVs" rather than "OLED displays".

(I will note however that it kind of seems like the PVM models may have been discontinued, but those were always 2nd tier to the BVM models)

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post #11494 of 11518 Old 12-15-2014, 07:08 PM
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[quote=Postmoderndesign;29930489]
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Originally Posted by rogo View Post
Useful information suggesting that 77 inch screens will not fall below $5,000 dollars for a few years. I realize any estimate of time and cost is pure conjecture but at least there is a commitment to continue development.
To be honest; I'd be surprised if 65" OLEDs fell below $5000 anytime soon.

That's not derisive in any way as it took about six or seven years for 65" plasma to fall below $5000.
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post #11495 of 11518 Old 12-15-2014, 07:20 PM
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Originally Posted by NintendoManiac64 View Post
Umm...

https://pro.sony.com/bbsc/ssr/micro-oled/

I think you should correct your post to say "OLED TVs" rather than "OLED displays".

(I will note however that it kind of seems like the PVM models may have been discontinued, but those were always 2nd tier to the BVM models)
I'm probably going to just put you on block from here. I really don't care for your nitpicking, semantic manner at all.

Everyone knew what I meant.

I'm also well familiar with Sony's astronomically priced, tiny volume broadcast OLED monitors.

Samsung sells more TVs (that's TV, generally speaking, of all kinds... in case you were confused, which you weren't, but I wanted to leave you without any confusion) in one hour than Sony sells of those in a year.

So, no, I'm not correcting a post that didn't confuse anyone. Including you.

Good day and live well.

There is no difference in HDMI cables. If you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working. (Oh, and plasma didn't die because of logistics problems, nor does OLED ship in big boxes because it comes from Korea.)
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post #11496 of 11518 Old 12-15-2014, 07:25 PM
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Originally Posted by rogo View Post
Everyone knew what I meant.
I didn't, I legitamately thought you meant OLED technology as a whole since that would include the likes of the PlayStation Vita as well (which is relevant because Sony switched from OLED to LCD for the Vita revision).
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post #11497 of 11518 Old Yesterday, 01:12 AM
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Originally Posted by NintendoManiac64 View Post
I didn't, I legitamately thought you meant OLED technology as a whole since that would include the likes of the PlayStation Vita as well (which is relevant because Sony switched from OLED to LCD for the Vita revision).
Fine, noted. My apologies then.

Sony didn't make those displays in the Vita either. It was a Samsung.

Sony's entire flat-panel display output since the start of the flat-panel era (that includes all plasmas and LCDs), including all its professional gear, whatever small-scale stuff it has done, etc. would still be less than a year of Samsung's output -- by a wide, wide margin.

They are a completely non-serious player in display. It's nearly pointless to discuss what they are "doing" because they aren't doing anything. And I have stated -- on record here several times -- I believe their full exit from TV selling is inevitable. That the division is about to turn a profit -- it's firm in more than a decade -- of <1% makes this more likely not less. The company is selling dramatically fewer TVs in a market that is flat. Dumping the division, which has no meaningful R&D but is largely a branding play, is more logical than ever to a PE player or a Chinese CE firm.

There is no difference in HDMI cables. If you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working. (Oh, and plasma didn't die because of logistics problems, nor does OLED ship in big boxes because it comes from Korea.)
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[quote=kucharsk;29951945]
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Originally Posted by Postmoderndesign View Post
To be honest; I'd be surprised if 65" OLEDs fell below $5000 anytime soon.
That's not derisive in any way as it took about six or seven years for 65" plasma to fall below $5000.
Mass manufacturing of big size OLEDs is only just starting, one should expect prices falling sooner than later. Primary objective of LG is to keep its new plant busy and that requires lowering prices steeply and quickly. One can not sell a lot of 65" 4K OLEDs for for the current list at $11 999.99, one can sell tons of of them for $4 999.99.
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post #11499 of 11518 Old Yesterday, 03:15 AM
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Originally Posted by irkuck View Post

Mass manufacturing of big size OLEDs is only just starting, one should expect prices falling sooner than later. Primary objective of LG is to keep its new plant busy and that requires lowering prices steeply and quickly. One can not sell a lot of 65" 4K OLEDs for for the current list at $11 999.99, one can sell tons of of them for $4 999.99.
Maybe half tons at that price?

There is no difference in HDMI cables. If you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working. (Oh, and plasma didn't die because of logistics problems, nor does OLED ship in big boxes because it comes from Korea.)
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[quote=kucharsk;29951945]
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Originally Posted by Postmoderndesign View Post

To be honest; I'd be surprised if 65" OLEDs fell below $5000 anytime soon.

That's not derisive in any way as it took about six or seven years for 65" plasma to fall below $5000.
I appreciate your estimate of how long the wait will be for 77" OLED displays to fall below $5,000.

I did wait years for 58" plasma displays to fall below $3,000. A lot of bugs had been worked out by then and the technology had matured somewhat. And even this year the picture quality of broadcast TV has dramatically improved on my plasma. There are a lot of moving parts in picture quality.

As all of you know if you avoid being on the bleeding edge you can get cheaper and better electronics. However, if anyone has the money or needs the technology or values being ahead of their neighbors or simply finds the picture quality of OLED worth the cost then you will own an OLED display before I do.

However, the reality is that if one day my 58" Panasonic display fails then I will evaluate my options at that point. Or one day I may see an OLED TV in a store showing 4K broadcast, disc, or Netflix video I could actually get and decide I have to get it.

I hope to avoid the current LED technology that so far I do not like.
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post #11501 of 11518 Old Yesterday, 10:34 AM
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Actually, it is my belief that LG will be forced to drop prices on OLED TV models much more rapidly that Plasma makers did in the past, because they will have to get fairly close to the prices of 4K LCD models, if they are to have any chance of selling enough units in the next three to five years to make it worthwhile continuing to manufacture them.
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The plasma price curve very, very approximately was -30% per year for several years running in the essential part of the growth phase.

I'm going to argue -- much to the consternation of many people who don't really understand how business works -- that the sale of a few thousand OLED TVs at high prices didn't constitute meaningful data for LG and so we might want to view the $3500 price that exists today as the start of any discussion about what will happen from here. Yes, I'm fully aware of the move from $12K or so down to that number. I'm also more aware than most of you that sales were so small as to be beneath measurement of global survey firms. (In other words, less than .01% market share.)

There is precedent for this logic. In the distant past, Sony sold a 70-inch LCD that was such low production it effectively did not exist as a product, yet you could order one. Similarly, other sort of one-off models/designs have been around but we don't describe them as "seeing their prices fall."

LG undoubtedly did take the price from the intro level to the current $3500 (or whatever street is), but the number moved so quickly, it's just not interesting to view that as setting the curve. What's interesting is where the 55 inch is priced a year from now. Extrapolating off those data points starts to be telling.

The current street price of the putative 65-inch is not completely clear to me. But let's say it's $10K at big box, which seems correct. I don't believe that's a very real price either. I suspect sales will be beneath measurement as you can purchase very good 65-inch TVs for 1/2 or less that and the idea that there's a pent-up demand for premium TVs has been proved false time and again. Once LG makes a price move on that to get it going somewhere, I think we can use that figure to start building a pricing curve.

A good way to understand this is to think about sales. When we say, "Sales doubled" that could be impressive or a meaningless boast. If it's impressive, it's because we started with a decent number and sold twice that. "LG sold 1 million OLEDs in 2016 and 2 million in 2017." That's impressive.

This, by contrast, is nothing short of idiotic:

http://www.oled-info.com/lg-sold-mor...ared-last-year

There is no difference in HDMI cables. If you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working. (Oh, and plasma didn't die because of logistics problems, nor does OLED ship in big boxes because it comes from Korea.)
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Originally Posted by rogo View Post
I'm going to argue -- much to the consternation of many people who don't really understand how business works -- that the sale of a few thousand OLED TVs at high prices didn't constitute meaningful data for LG and so we might want to view the $3500 price that exists today as the start of any discussion about what will happen from here. Yes, I'm fully aware of the move from $12K or so down to that number.
I argued for a very long time that pricing was irrelevant until the M2 fab started production.

I do agree that the 30% price reduction curve will eventually become dominant. The question is whether the $3500 price point for the 55" television is the real starting point. I would say that it is except for the fact that the same model is already selling for under $3000 across Europe (sometimes significantly below).

I think that pricing units in the EU below the US might be nearly unique in consumer electronics (anybody have other examples?) so I tend to think that we will see similar pricing in the US in fairly short order. At that point, I think it will be much easier to make pricing projections going forward.
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I argued for a very long time that pricing was irrelevant until the M2 fab started production.

I do agree that the 30% price reduction curve will eventually become dominant. The question is whether the $3500 price point for the 55" television is the real starting point. I would say that it is except for the fact that the same model is already selling for under $3000 across Europe (sometimes significantly below).

I think that pricing units in the EU below the US might be nearly unique in consumer electronics (anybody have other examples?) so I tend to think that we will see similar pricing in the US in fairly short order. At that point, I think it will be much easier to make pricing projections going forward.
In my country they do the ''LG returns 500 euro when you buy the TV thing''. Hard to believe that i can buy the 55EA9809 right now for €2,095,00 if i want to..
http://www.mediamarkt.nl/mcs/shop/lg-oled-tv.html
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Originally Posted by rogo View Post
This, by contrast, is nothing short of idiotic:

http://www.oled-info.com/lg-sold-mor...ared-last-year
I clicked on that link. And then I instantly laughed out loud.

Edit: still chuckling

Send this to all your friends! When will this stupidity end? So hysterical: Vertical Video Syndrome --- a PSA.

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post #11506 of 11518 Old Today, 12:03 AM
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I argued for a very long time that pricing was irrelevant until the M2 fab started production.
Because you are not just one of the smart ones, but also thoughtful on these topics. That's why I read your posts even when I don't agree with your conclusions (and more closely when I do ).
Quote:
I do agree that the 30% price reduction curve will eventually become dominant. The question is whether the $3500 price point for the 55" television is the real starting point. I would say that it is except for the fact that the same model is already selling for under $3000 across Europe (sometimes significantly below).
Yeah, we have some fuzziness in the data... Perhaps it'll be clear by springtime. If not, it'll be clear enough as the price curve gets built over the next 2-5 years.
Quote:
I think that pricing units in the EU below the US might be nearly unique in consumer electronics (anybody have other examples?) so I tend to think that we will see similar pricing in the US in fairly short order. At that point, I think it will be much easier to make pricing projections going forward.
I'm unfamiliar with other times this is true. I'm also unclear what's causing it now. LG is probably more focused on Europe because the 55-as-flagship works there. It simply doesn't in the U.S -- especially not as a 1080p model.

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In my country they do the ''LG returns 500 euro when you buy the TV thing''. Hard to believe that i can buy the 55EA9809 right now for €2,095,00 if i want to..
Quite a deal.

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Originally Posted by tgm1024 View Post
I clicked on that link. And then I instantly laughed out loud.

Edit: still chuckling
My Forbes traffic increased like 86,000% between two months at one point! No, really, it did! (Pay no attention to which months those are!)

There is no difference in HDMI cables. If you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working. (Oh, and plasma didn't die because of logistics problems, nor does OLED ship in big boxes because it comes from Korea.)
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Originally Posted by tgm1024 View Post
I clicked on that link. And then I instantly laughed out loud.
Edit: still chuckling
The next part linked there says LG adjusted earlier predictions of 5 mln OLEDs sold in 2015 to a mere 800 000. 800 000 looks small compared to 5 mln but it is still a number signalling beginning of mass production and much lower prices. Make full reset guys, real start of OLED TVs is 2015.
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In any event, and maybe this isn't the right thread, the prospects for 4K content doesn't seem too bright. ATSC 3.0 is being worked on but it sounds like that's mainly an opportunity for companies to get their patents in line and for some broadcasters to offer services to mobile devices, not so much high-end displays.

One of the reasons OLED is tied with 4K is that plasma couldn't move to 4K?
Technically, they could make a plasma panel in 4k but the power consumption would be way above the legal limit, and with more and more strict power consumption requirements it was a no-go and pretty much killed plasma as a technology in TVs.
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Originally Posted by irkuck View Post
The next part linked there says LG adjusted earlier predictions of 5 mln OLEDs sold in 2015 to a mere 800 000. 800 000 looks small compared to 5 mln but it is still a number signalling beginning of mass production and much lower prices. Make full reset guys, real start of OLED TVs is 2015.
I just couldn't get past the title (of the link Rogo posted.) "LG sold more than a 1,000 OLED TVs in Korea in October, sales rise 20X compared to last year." LOL. Sounds like something out of Johny Dangerously.

Send this to all your friends! When will this stupidity end? So hysterical: Vertical Video Syndrome --- a PSA.
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Technically, they could make a plasma panel in 4k but the power consumption would be way above the legal limit, and with more and more strict power consumption requirements it was a no-go and pretty much killed plasma as a technology in TVs.
Oye, the "if only 4K didn't happen, plasma would be king" mantra.

It's simply not true. If 4K never ever happened, plasma would be dead as a doornail anyway. On their projection models, having 4K on the horizon merely changed the period to an exclamation point; the sentence was the same.

Send this to all your friends! When will this stupidity end? So hysterical: Vertical Video Syndrome --- a PSA.
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Originally Posted by tgm1024 View Post
Oye, the "if only 4K didn't happen, plasma would be king" mantra.

It's simply not true. If 4K never ever happened, plasma would be dead as a doornail anyway. On their projection models, having 4K on the horizon merely changed the period to an exclamation point; the sentence was the same.
It's very much true, but it's obviously not the whole truth.
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Technically, they could make a plasma panel in 4k but the power consumption would be way above the legal limit, and with more and more strict power consumption requirements it was a no-go and pretty much killed plasma as a technology in TVs.
I thought part of the problem with making 4K plasmas was making the plasma "cells" small enough.

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It's very much true, but it's obviously not the whole truth.
It's not even a part of the truth. Sure, a plasma 4K couldn't realistically be created as a viable product line, (physics and mother nature were in the way), but that's not what killed plasma. If 4K never ever existed, 2K plasma sales would have been dropping like the rock they were already dropping like. Not always for good reasons, people were just not buying them in large enough numbers.

Send this to all your friends! When will this stupidity end? So hysterical: Vertical Video Syndrome --- a PSA.

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I thought part of the problem with making 4K plasmas was making the plasma "cells" small enough.
There were already prototype 58" 4k plasmas shown, but the problem is the added power consumption. The EU regulations for TVs says "the on-mode power consumption of a television with visible screen area A expressed in dm2 shall not exceed 16 Watts + A * 3.4579 Watts/dm2". This means max 419 watts for a 65" TV, and eg. the Panasonic TX-P65VT65B 1080p plasma calibrated is using around 300W.

"To maintain a similar level of brightness with tighter pixels with smaller plasma cells would increase the proportion of ionised atoms lost at the wall surfaces, hence reducing the luminous efficacy of the UV light exciting the phosphors, more voltage would be required to energise the gas mixture, leading to higher power consumption. " - http://www.hdtvtest.co.uk/news/4k-pl...1311133417.htm

So not a chance to get 4k out of a plasma and keep below the EU regulated max power consumption.
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Originally Posted by tgm1024 View Post
It's not even a part of the truth. Sure, a plasma 4K couldn't realistically be created as a viable product line, (physics and mother nature were in the way), but that's not what killed plasma. If 4K never ever existed, 2K plasma sales would have been dropping like the rock they were already dropping like. Not always for good reasons, people were just not buying them in large enough numbers.
http://www.hdtvtest.co.uk/news/4k-pl...1311133417.htm disgrees with you, it certainly killed the Panasonic plasma line. It all boiled down to power consumption.
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http://www.hdtvtest.co.uk/news/4k-pl...1311133417.htm disgrees with you, it certainly killed the Panasonic plasma line. It all boiled down to power consumption.
Yes, yes, we know all that, including what Panasonic themselves have said. Nevertheless, the sales curve cannot be argued with. It was dying off, (note the word dying, not "hurt", "less robust", "less than LCD", but dying) for much longer than 4K has been around.

As that article you posted said. it was the "final nail in the coffin". But make no mistake. That coffin was already fully made, and the hole was dug.

Here's one chart (chosen at random....they're easy to find by googling). Pay attention to the green as a percentage of the whole. And as a percentage of LCD. It's a completely non-sustainable technology even at 2K.

The idea that plasma would have been just fine had it not been for 4K is purely myopic videophile reasoning. It's. Just. Not. True.
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Send this to all your friends! When will this stupidity end? So hysterical: Vertical Video Syndrome --- a PSA.

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Wow, the above chart is very telling. Didn't realize the Y/Y sales of flat screens has basically flatlined for a few years now. Frankly, I've never thought OLED would be viable under any circumstances, and that chart doesn't do anything to change my mind. IF LG continues to produce OLED displays beyond 2015 or perhaps 2016, I'd be very surprised. Only one manufacturer (LG) simply cannot make and sell panels at a price that's competetive with their own, and other companies LCD/LED 1080p and 4K sets. Facts are facts, companies exist to make money, and if a product simply doesn't sell in enough numbers after a couple of years, that company will cease producing it. Which gets back to Rogo's prediction about Sony eventually ending it's TV production (which I agree with). Panasonic may likely beat Sony to the punch on that front!
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 5150zx View Post
Frankly, I've never thought OLED would be viable under any circumstances, and that chart doesn't do anything to change my mind. IF LG continues to produce OLED displays beyond 2015 or perhaps 2016, I'd be very surprised. Only one manufacturer (LG) simply cannot make and sell panels at a price that's competetive with their own, and other companies LCD/LED 1080p and 4K sets. Facts are facts, companies exist to make money, and if a product simply doesn't sell in enough numbers after a couple of years, that company will cease producing it.
TVs don't last forever and therefore people do still replace them over time. This means that any selling of TVs will possibly be at the expense of another brand, so having something that makes them stand out would be in LG's best interest when you consider that LG isn't a market leader currently.
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