The plasma price curve very, very approximately was -30% per year for several years running in the essential part of the growth phase.
I'm going to argue -- much to the consternation of many people who don't really understand how business works -- that the sale of a few thousand OLED TVs at high prices didn't constitute meaningful data for LG and so we might want to view the $3500 price that exists today as the start
of any discussion about what will happen from here. Yes, I'm fully aware of the move from $12K or so down to that number. I'm also more aware than most of you that sales were so small as to be beneath measurement of global survey firms. (In other words, less than .01% market share.)
There is precedent for this logic. In the distant past, Sony sold a 70-inch LCD that was such low production it effectively did not exist as a product, yet you could order one. Similarly, other sort of one-off models/designs have been around but we don't describe them as "seeing their prices fall."
LG undoubtedly did take the price from the intro level to the current $3500 (or whatever street is), but the number moved so quickly, it's just not interesting to view that as setting the curve. What's interesting is where the 55 inch is priced a year from now. Extrapolating off those data points starts to be telling.
The current street price of the putative 65-inch is not completely clear to me. But let's say it's $10K at big box, which seems correct. I don't believe that's a very real price either. I suspect sales will be beneath measurement as you can purchase very good 65-inch TVs for 1/2 or less that and the idea that there's a pent-up demand for premium TVs has been proved false time and again. Once LG makes a price move on that to get it going somewhere, I think we can use that figure
to start building a pricing curve.
A good way to understand this is to think about sales. When we say, "Sales doubled" that could be impressive or a meaningless boast. If it's impressive, it's because we started with a decent number and sold twice that. "LG sold 1 million OLEDs in 2016 and 2 million in 2017." That's impressive.
This, by contrast, is nothing short of idiotic: