OLED TVs: Technology Advancements Thread - Page 385 - AVS Forum
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post #11521 of 11538 Old Yesterday, 10:13 AM
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Originally Posted by tgm1024 View Post
It's not even a part of the truth. Sure, a plasma 4K couldn't realistically be created as a viable product line, (physics and mother nature were in the way), but that's not what killed plasma. If 4K never ever existed, 2K plasma sales would have been dropping like the rock they were already dropping like. Not always for good reasons, people were just not buying them in large enough numbers.
There were no physics and mother nature in the way of 4K plasma TVs, continuously falling sales numbers and the emergence of OLED tech is what was in the way of 4K plasmas.


And like I said before you should think (even though it might prove to be mighty hard to think of OLED in such terms) of OLED as evolution of plasma. The catalyst in Emissive Displays has evolved from noble gases (plasma) to carbon-based electroluminescent matter (OLED), from gaseous to solid form, and other than that the idea behind them both has not changed much i.e. convert invisible light into visible light. The means are what have changed not the underlying principle... In fact, OLED TVs produced today are phosphor-based.

....

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post #11522 of 11538 Old Yesterday, 11:02 AM
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There were no physics and mother nature in the way of 4K plasma TVs,
Well, to be clear, technically yes there was if plasma were otherwise a healthy industry. There's a fundamental cell size limit below which power consumption does not sensibly scale. Like many ideas in technology, it fits neatly in the category titled "you could do it, but you wouldn't want to". But yes, what killed off plasma was plasma, not the 4K.
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post #11523 of 11538 Old Yesterday, 01:24 PM
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Originally Posted by tgm1024 View Post
Well, to be clear, technically yes there was if plasma were otherwise a healthy industry. There's a fundamental cell size limit below which power consumption does not sensibly scale. Like many ideas in technology, it fits neatly in the category titled "you could do it, but you wouldn't want to". But yes, what killed off plasma was plasma, not the 4K.
4K Plasma was a stillborn idea in a sense that the production of 4K plasma TVs would be as economical as muon catalyzed fusion, however and howbeit it wouldn't be as unreal as cold fusion were...


Also there were problems with sourcing parts for plasmas.

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post #11524 of 11538 Old Yesterday, 10:52 PM
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There's a fundamental cell size limit below which power consumption does not sensibly scale.
In other words, the same reason Intel abandoned Netbust?
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post #11525 of 11538 Old Today, 08:58 AM
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Yes, fair. Of course, 800K is a huge leap from 2014's total. It's not a done deal by any means. The OLED revolution, at best, will be an evolution.
Reset, please. OLED starts only in 2015, period. What was before was experimental preproduction. Now the deal is done, OLED will carve itself market share. Challenging LCD? Only if the technology of printing OLED displays like newsprint arrives. At least such technology is not a fantasy anymore and optimists say it may come even in 2015.
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post #11526 of 11538 Old Today, 10:47 AM
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Reset, please. OLED starts only in 2015, period. What was before was experimental preproduction. Now the deal is done, OLED will carve itself market share. Challenging LCD? Only if the technology of printing OLED displays like newsprint arrives. At least such technology is not a fantasy anymore and optimists say it may come even in 2015.
OLED (TV) may die in 2015, as well. By the looks of it OLED has gone through the terribly long and painful labor which came about on the heels of the rather natural death of its Emissive Display counterpart Plasma and it is still in a very precarious and unstable state.


The most important vital sign that should be closely monitored right now is the price new M2 OLEDs "street" at. I reckon that if the street price doesn't hit reasonable levels by H2 2015 then OLED might follow suit of its predecessors (CRT, Plasma and other stillborn techs, barring LCD of course).


P.S 2015 will make OLED or break it. The coming year is the year when all in the TV industry might change...

....

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post #11527 of 11538 Old Today, 11:22 AM
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Originally Posted by stas3098 View Post
OLED (TV) may die in 2015, as well. By the looks of it OLED has gone through the terribly long and painful labor which came about on the heels of the rather natural death of its Emissive Display counterpart Plasma and it is still in a very precarious and unstable state. The most important vital sign that should be closely monitored right now is the price new M2 OLEDs "street" at. I reckon that if the street price doesn't hit reasonable levels by H2 2015 then OLED might follow suit of its predecessors (CRT, Plasma and other stillborn techs, barring LCD of course). P.S 2015 will make OLED or break it. The coming year is the year when all in the TV industry might change...
OLED dying in 2015 is unlikely just because LG has not built the new plant to close it immediately. Pricing is of course absolutely critical and LG will do whatever it takes to sell all production. They must be prepared for long march to recuperate investment (profitability of TV business is low so there is nothing to talk about) and get a lead in this technology before Samsung potentially comes back with printed OLEDs.

Now the question is: What is the possible premium which OLED can carry over (high-end) LCD price? It is evident that if OLED and LCD prices would be equal people will select OLED. The game is how much can be added to the price for getting enough people buying the initial 800 000 sets? I am convinced LG is ready to set for such a price.
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In this, two weeks old, article LG states that they have formed a new dedicated OLED division.

LG also state that they are working hard to minimize burn-in effects, researchers were working to permanently solve the issue. LG said that already commercialized products don't have the problem What does that mean? Only new products have the burn-in problem? Or only non-commercial products have the burn-in problem? Or does it means that because they are afraid of burn-in related lawsuits they say that already commercialized products do not have the problem ? What are they trying to say?? Looks like they admit that their OLED TVs have burn-in issues from were i stand
http://www.cnet.com/news/lg-forms-ne...oled-division/
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post #11529 of 11538 Old Today, 12:12 PM
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Originally Posted by irkuck View Post
OLED dying in 2015 is unlikely just because LG has not built the new plant to close it immediately. Pricing is of course absolutely critical and LG will do whatever it takes to sell all production. They must be prepared for long march to recuperate investment (profitability of TV business is low so there is nothing to talk about) and get a lead in this technology before Samsung potentially comes back with printed OLEDs.

Now the question is: What is the possible premium which OLED can carry over (high-end) LCD price? It is evident that if OLED and LCD prices would be equal people will select OLED. The game is how much can be added to the price for getting enough people buying the initial 800 000 sets? I am convinced LG is ready to set for such a price.
Of course ,they won't shut down the fab in 2015 the production might even "seep" into 2017, but the thing is that OLED must be cheaper than (high-end) LCD (or equal to mid-range LCDs in price) to start gaining meaningful grounds needed to "justify" the continuation of (mass)production (the business LG is in) and if the projections don't look too good then you can expect the discontinuation of (mass)production as it happened with Plasma, CRT, GE kitchen appliances division etc.... as it will happen with Sony and Panasonic as soon as their contracts with their suppliers are up. For the moment they are trapped in the TV business, but as soon as the decision on whether or not to renew the supply contrasts comes about I'm pretty sure there's no chance in hell those contracts will ever get renewed. LG is also right now trapped in the OLED business until H1 2017 the time their last OLED supply contract is up and as far as I know most of their contracts are up for review in 2016 meaning 2015 will ultimately define whether or not any of these contracts will be renewed.


Like I said before no nobody is going to be making OLEDs if the game doesn't appear to be worth the candle.

....

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post #11530 of 11538 Old Today, 12:29 PM
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Read a blurb that LG will introduce a line of quantum dot TVs at CES.

So they're hedging their bets.
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post #11531 of 11538 Old Today, 12:43 PM
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All good points. If OLED cannot bring its price down relative to an LCD/LED display - - it will truly be a "niche" market. That doesn't sound very sustainable to me.

If I understand the Quantum Dot technology correctly, "the light emitting organic OLED molecules tend to degrade and are sensitive to humidity and oxidation. QD can support large, flexible displays but do not degrade."

QD/UHD/4K with OLED blacks and a 75" TV under $5K? We have a winner.....

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post #11532 of 11538 Old Today, 01:17 PM
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Quantum Dot (film) in its current incarnation does nothing for contrast ratio and will not get you "OLED blacks." All it will do is expand the color gamut capabilities (real useful with no content!). LCD is an insidious beast, as OLED is giving us the improvements in areas of PQ that are the most striking.
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post #11533 of 11538 Old Today, 01:28 PM
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Quantum Dot (film) in its current incarnation does nothing for contrast ratio and will not get you "OLED blacks." All it will do is expand the color gamut capabilities (real useful with no content!). LCD is an insidious beast, as OLED is giving us the improvements in areas of PQ that are the most striking.
O.K - so no improvement with QD in blacks and no real improvement until UHD/4K content.

If I can't afford an OLED TV in the size I want - 65" minimum, 75" preferred, what other alternatives do I have?

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Save up and/or work on boosting that credit score. The only LCD I can envision owning is a FALD with as many or more zones than a Sharp Elite (Vizio R...if it ever comes, or maybe something from Samsung in 2015?). Ancillary to that, waiting patiently might be a tact to follow as well. LG had the 65" streeting for $6250 before they encountered a manufacturing snag.

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Originally Posted by Ricoflashback View Post
O.K - so no improvement with QD in blacks and no real improvement until UHD/4K content.

If I can't afford an OLED TV in the size I want - 65" minimum, 75" preferred, what other alternatives do I have?
1/ (Q)LED 2/ front projection 3/ wait
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post #11536 of 11538 Old Today, 02:12 PM
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O.K - so no improvement with QD in blacks and no real improvement until UHD/4K content.

If I can't afford an OLED TV in the size I want - 65" minimum, 75" preferred, what other alternatives do I have?
Then you are screwed.


By 2017-18 if all goes according to plan we might see first photo-alignment LCDs coming out. Those will have a slight contrast bump maybe up to 6000 to 8000 and they are also supposed to have CRT/5K Retina iMac good viewing angles and other than that I can't see any improvements in LCDs coming in the foreseeable future.

....
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post #11537 of 11538 Old Today, 03:55 PM
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Originally Posted by Ricoflashback
O.K - so no improvement with QD in blacks and no real improvement until UHD/4K content.

If I can't afford an OLED TV in the size I want - 65" minimum, 75" preferred, what other alternatives do I have?


Then you are screwed.

Whoa, Cowboy...I wanna party with you! I thought my girlfriend only said that...

I was really looking forward to Plasma blacks without the buzz, heat & IR heartburn. And I have a credit score of 794 (LOL) but I do not want to mortgage the farm, so to speak, to get the OLED set I want. I'll keep the money, retire to Cozumel and buy a 55" OLED & spend the rest of the time studying the ga-zillion type of Tequilas out there.

I've been called a dreamer before. So here is my ideal setup - - 70" or 75" OLED for primary viewing and a 4K Projector for movies. I looked at my checking account and I'm gonna be a little light on making this happen. On the positive side, I do hold a Lotto ticket for this weekend.

Merry Xmas, Happy Hanukkah, Happy Kwanzaa & Happy New Year to everyone! (No, I am NOT running for public office.)
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post #11538 of 11538 Old Today, 06:06 PM
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Originally Posted by irkuck View Post
Reset, please. OLED starts only in 2015, period. What was before was experimental preproduction. Now the deal is done, OLED will carve itself market share. Challenging LCD? Only if the technology of printing OLED displays like newsprint arrives. At least such technology is not a fantasy anymore and optimists say it may come even in 2015.
Printable OLEDs may come in small quantities and small sizes in 2015. No one is going to even demonstrate a large-size printable OLED that is based on technology that will be usable for manufacturing.

The only printing tech close to mass production ready is from Kateeva of Silicon Valley. It is in the hands of one customer who is ostensibly gearing up to use it for flexible displays for some kind of mobile device.

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OLED dying in 2015 is unlikely just because LG has not built the new plant to close it immediately. Pricing is of course absolutely critical and LG will do whatever it takes to sell all production. They must be prepared for long march to recuperate investment (profitability of TV business is low so there is nothing to talk about) and get a lead in this technology before Samsung potentially comes back with printed OLEDs.
Again, in TV the first pilot line for TV is no sooner than deep into 2016, quite possibly later.
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Now the question is: What is the possible premium which OLED can carry over (high-end) LCD price? It is evident that if OLED and LCD prices would be equal people will select OLED. The game is how much can be added to the price for getting enough people buying the initial 800 000 sets? I am convinced LG is ready to set for such a price.
Quick math: The TV market is ~240M. Of that, the 55+ category is <40M. (Let's just go generous). Of that the premium segment is not more than 10%.

If we add in another generosity / error factor, that leaves us with a global market size for 55+ premium sets of 6M maximum.

Now, we are talking the whole premium segment here, which starts below $2000 and includes much larger sizes. For every dollar you price above the competition, you lose some sales. To sell 15% of the total in this segment -- while failing to compete in huge swaths of it (70s, 80s, sub $2000 premiums) -- you cannot possibly price even 30% above the competition. The correct number is likely at most 10%.

Realistically, if LG had price parity tomorrow, it would not capture anywhere near 50% share of the segment next year. There are critical reasons why:

1) LG cannot make more than 2 million TVs next year. And it cannot make 2 million in one year until full production is attained. So the maximum production is a constraint.

2) LG does not have the shelf space, marketing, brand, distribution to just wipe out the competition.

3) LG does not have an offering in the 70-plus category (unless it also reached sub $4000 at that size) that would be competitive.


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Of course ,they won't shut down the fab in 2015 the production might even "seep" into 2017, but the thing is that OLED must be cheaper than (high-end) LCD (or equal to mid-range LCDs in price) to start gaining meaningful grounds needed to "justify" the continuation of (mass)production (the business LG is in) and if the projections don't look too good then you can expect the discontinuation of (mass)production as it happened with Plasma, CRT, GE kitchen appliances division etc.... as it will happen with Sony and Panasonic as soon as their contracts with their suppliers are up. For the moment they are trapped in the TV business, but as soon as the decision on whether or not to renew the supply contrasts comes about I'm pretty sure there's no chance in hell those contracts will ever get renewed. LG is also right now trapped in the OLED business until H1 2017 the time their last OLED supply contract is up and as far as I know most of their contracts are up for review in 2016 meaning 2015 will ultimately define whether or not any of these contracts will be renewed.
This is a bleak assessment, but I agree with one part of it: To actually push volumes, the price needs to literally equal or eclipse the equivalent LCD it is trying to displace. Even "a little more" means relatively small share. Relatively small share means no long-term OLED business.

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All good points. If OLED cannot bring its price down relative to an LCD/LED display - - it will truly be a "niche" market. That doesn't sound very sustainable to me.
It isn't. Look back at those numbers above. You probably need OLED TV at 10% of the overall TV market for it feel comfortable. That's 25 million, perhaps within 5-7 years. That feels like an ecosystem that's sustainable. Maybe 15 million will do it. 1-2 million will certainly not.

There is no difference in HDMI cables. If you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working. (Oh, and plasma didn't die because of logistics problems, nor does OLED ship in big boxes because it comes from Korea.)
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