OLED TVs: Technology Advancements Thread - Page 403 - AVS Forum | Home Theater Discussions And Reviews

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post #12061 of 13441 Old 05-03-2015, 05:54 AM
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LG Display's 20F filing is out (equivalent to US 10K). All kinds of comments about OLED's being the future of the display industry.

It looks like the E4 (M2) fab did start its ramp in December. No details on when it restarted after the nitrogen leak.

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/da...914919d20f.htm

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We began production of OLED panels for televisions on our E3 production lines in January 2013 and commenced mass production of OLED panels for smartphones on our E2 production lines and OLED panels for televisions on our E4 production lines in December 2013 and December 2014, respectively.
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post #12062 of 13441 Old 05-03-2015, 02:15 PM
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Is there a sense of what their smartphone capacity is?

Also, do we know if anyone is using their smartphone panels in existing models and which models?

And you may ask yourself well how did I get here?
And you may ask yourself am I right? Am I wrong?
And you may say to yourself: What have I done?!
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post #12063 of 13441 Old 05-03-2015, 02:33 PM
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Originally Posted by fafrd View Post
Agree with everything you have written.

[snip]

The fact that you can purchase a 90" Sharp LCD from Costco for $6300 is interesting - there must be some demand for screens that size (which LG could dominate) and 100" screens (which LG could pioneer at little incremental investment) could be the next mainstream 'massive-size' TV on the horizon...
Listen, if LG wants to sell $6300 90" OLEDs, no one is going to object!

The market size at 90" is pretty small, however. At $30-40K, it's not even 1/10th as large.

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post #12064 of 13441 Old 05-03-2015, 04:06 PM
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Originally Posted by rogo View Post
Is there a sense of what their smartphone capacity is?

Also, do we know if anyone is using their smartphone panels in existing models and which models?
Their E2 fab (flexible small display OLED) capacity is pretty small. It is a Gen 4.5 fab with capacity for 14k substrates a month. That is enough for niche handsets like the Flex plus Apple's Watch capacity but not much else. The rumor is that they will start construction on a Gen 6 facility with capacity for another 15k this summer, but management has yet to confirm that.

A 15k Gen 6 fab could produce somewhere around 5 million 5" displays a month.
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post #12065 of 13441 Old 05-04-2015, 02:00 AM
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A 15k Gen 6 fab could produce somewhere around 5 million 5" displays a month.
Interesting. That's still not enough to be even meaningful toward an iPhone (it wouldn't cover a launch quarter!). I guess this makes me less sanguine the 2016 iPhone will go OLED as Samsung would (a) need a lot more capacity than I suspect it currently has and (b) would be close to a sole source.

I would still like to see Apple just build its own display fab, even if it has someone else operate/construct/manage it. Basically, a display version of the deal it tried to obtain (but failed) with TSMC. The likeliest partner would be LG. The cost actually seems low.

I'd recommend doing this as a twin-line 8G and supporting LG's TV business, but memory tells me that 8G fabs aren't especially great for making smartphone displays (too much cutting).

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post #12066 of 13441 Old 05-04-2015, 06:18 AM
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Originally Posted by rogo View Post
Interesting. That's still not enough to be even meaningful toward an iPhone (it wouldn't cover a launch quarter!). I guess this makes me less sanguine the 2016 iPhone will go OLED as Samsung would (a) need a lot more capacity than I suspect it currently has and (b) would be close to a sole source.
The interesting thing though is that if LG Display does build the Gen 6 fab, it is hard to see who would buy that kind of capacity besides Apple. The G4 is LG Electronic's flagship handset and if it sells 12 million units in the next year, it will be considered a big success for the company. Outside of Apple and Samsung, there just arent very many high-end units sold.

So either LG Display figures that all of the non-Samsung/Apple high-end vendors are going to start buying flexible OLED's from them or this fab would be used to supply Apple in some capacity.

Obviously, Apple would need quite a bit more capacity to actually change over the entire iPhone lineup in a single stroke. It is possible that Samsung could build a Gen 6 fab of sufficient size in the next 15 months, but they have yet to give details on the size of the fab that they have planned (just like LGD).
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post #12067 of 13441 Old 05-04-2015, 08:35 AM
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When it was time to upgrade my iPad 3, Apple lost me to Samsung primarily due to lack of an OLED display. They really should fund/build their own fab because really what are they sitting on their cash reserve for.

Admittedly I am atypical. The iPad's display is great to most people. Samsung could be playing up their OLED advantage more, but their lineup is not all OLED either and there is the awkward fact that they have no OLED TV.
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post #12068 of 13441 Old 05-04-2015, 10:30 AM
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Originally Posted by barth2k View Post
When it was time to upgrade my iPad 3, Apple lost me to Samsung primarily due to lack of an OLED display.
Yep, while I think the OLED's on Samsung's smartphones look great, the display on the Galaxy Tab S gives me a serious case of tech envy. I am in too deep with Apple's ecosystem to switch, but an iPad with an OLED display would be an awesome upgrade. The stats say that people are watching quite a bit of video on tablets now and that would allow an OLED to shine from both a quality and power consumption standpoint.

While I do believe that Apple will eventually start moving towards OLED, it is hard to say when and how they will do so. They are so big that you will need to see some huge fabs built to handle their demand.
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post #12069 of 13441 Old 05-04-2015, 10:40 AM
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Yep, while I think the OLED's on Samsung's smartphones look great, the display on the Galaxy Tab S gives me a serious case of tech envy. I am in too deep with Apple's ecosystem to switch, but an iPad with an OLED display would be an awesome upgrade. The stats say that people are watching quite a bit of video on tablets now and that would allow an OLED to shine from both a quality and power consumption standpoint.

While I do believe that Apple will eventually start moving towards OLED, it is hard to say when and how they will do so. They are so big that you will need to see some huge fabs built to handle their demand.
Freakshow enormous. Freakshow everything in fact.

Apple is such a difficult phenomenon to discuss. It's funny, because folks will have economic theories that in all truth are 100% correct......but they're forced to offer the caveat "er, this doesn't apply to Apple".

I have to say though, that my now aging (2+ years?) Note II OLED display *still* floors me when I watch a movie on it. Still. It's such a joy to watch. In fact it's such a nice phone, I'm afraid to upgrade to the 4.

I can't imagine how nice the Tab S must look.

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post #12070 of 13441 Old 05-04-2015, 01:38 PM
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I doubt anywhere near 2% of the world's tablets are being sold with OLEDs. Samsung has about 14% of the world's tablet sales and really there's no evidence even 1 in 10 of their sales are the OLED models.

So that doesn't seem like a vulnerability for Apple at all, not a strong area of interest for now.

The phone, on the other hand, has to be something they're looking at. Every bit of thinness and -- with certain content types at least -- power consumption matters there. And the image quality gap is small but definitely real.

So while I'd like an iPad OLED, I don't see that as likely without an 8G OLED line from someone.

It will clearly take at least two 6G lines to support the iPhone OLED.

And not soon enough.

And you may ask yourself well how did I get here?
And you may ask yourself am I right? Am I wrong?
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Originally Posted by tgm1024 View Post
Freakshow enormous. Freakshow everything in fact.

Apple is such a difficult phenomenon to discuss. It's funny, because folks will have economic theories that in all truth are 100% correct......but they're forced to offer the caveat "er, this doesn't apply to Apple".

I have to say though, that my now aging (2+ years?) Note II OLED display *still* floors me when I watch a movie on it. Still. It's such a joy to watch. In fact it's such a nice phone, I'm afraid to upgrade to the 4.

I can't imagine how nice the Tab S must look.
Tab s in the dark really close to your eyes = poor man's unaffordable oled tv.
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post #12072 of 13441 Old 05-07-2015, 02:03 PM
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Tab s in the dark really close to your eyes = poor man's unaffordable oled tv.
Also known as the Oculus Rift DK2.
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post #12073 of 13441 Old 05-07-2015, 10:01 PM
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Tab s in the dark really close to your eyes = poor man's unaffordable oled tv.
When I got a tab S watched several episodes of Netflix on it and marveled at the PQ. But that got old quickly. There's no substitute for size.
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post #12074 of 13441 Old 05-08-2015, 04:45 AM
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Does anyone have a spectral distribution chart for LG's OLED?
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post #12075 of 13441 Old 05-09-2015, 09:27 PM
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Just ran in to this: http://m.koreatimes.co.kr/phone/news/view.jsp?req_newsidx=176413

(More on LG's OLED Alliance and patent pooling)
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post #12076 of 13441 Old 05-10-2015, 02:58 AM
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I'm mostly just a lurker on this section but I can't help but marvel that OLED TV development seems to be so limited that a good deal of the discussion here turns to phone screens and light bulbs.

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post #12077 of 13441 Old 05-10-2015, 08:41 AM
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I'm mostly just a lurker on this section but I can't help but marvel that OLED TV development seems to be so limited that a good deal of the discussion here turns to phone screens and light bulbs.
This happens in many industries, quite a few in the tech sector itself. It's quite common for an incumbent to almost completely write-off any competing technology, even if the technology is in fact better and not pursuing said tech practically results in the company's death (kodak and blackberry are easy go-to examples).

I personally think that LG having a brand image that is commonly seen as not on level with the likes of Samsung partially has something to with it - to use a Formula 1 example, McLaren switched from Mercedes to Honda power units because they felt that it would not be possible to beat the Mercedes team at their own game (it is known however that a large part of LG's OLED investments is for differentiation against incoming Chinese-developed LCD panels).


One thing to point out however is that Japanese companies, when being an incumbant in an industry, are not particularly known for moving quickly to "meet the challenge" so to say - they will esentually follow the EA/Activision logic of product where they basically "milk" a product until it dries, except that it's less due to profit motive and more due reluctance and not wanting to "rock the boat" - an idea that is quite pervasive in Japan as a whole.

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post #12078 of 13441 Old 05-10-2015, 06:46 PM
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I'm mostly just a lurker on this section but I can't help but marvel that OLED TV development seems to be so limited that a good deal of the discussion here turns to phone screens and light bulbs.
Truly, I think the light-bulb discussion is a massive diversion because I see such a minimal overlap. The reason why it's interesting to talk about smartphones -- somewhat at least -- is that there is some technology crossover potential. Samsung tried -- and failed -- scale up its smartphone tech to TVs. LG will possibly use it's TV tech to build smartphone displays, which could make it a bigger OLED producer, which ultimately benefits its TV aspirations.

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post #12079 of 13441 Old 05-13-2015, 09:48 AM
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Greetings. Long time reader of the forums and long time shareholder in Universal Display. I am about ready to pull the trigger on an OLED TV and decided to join, get some guidance breaking it in, and provide a review. Our local Best Buy(outside St. Louis) just got the 4K 65" in, so I had my first comparison to the EC9300. It isn't a fair one since the 65" is in the dark Magnolia room and the 9300 is in the bright store, but I decided the 9300 is good enough for me(for now,lol).


Glad to be here, Cooters
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post #12080 of 13441 Old 05-13-2015, 02:33 PM
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UHD Blu Ray specs just finalized, gear+content coming still this year -> pressing need for 100"-class OLEDs.
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post #12081 of 13441 Old 05-13-2015, 03:37 PM
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Well great, they're going to fall into the same issue HD-DVD had - uninformed consumers trying to play Ultra HD Blu-rays in their normal Blu-ray player.
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post #12082 of 13441 Old 05-14-2015, 01:16 AM
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UHD Blu Ray specs just finalized, gear+content coming still this year -> pressing need for 100"-class OLEDs.
Market size for 100-inch TVs? Really freakin' small.

Market size for a 4K physical media format? Pretty darned small.

I suppose the former is smaller than the latter.

But I'm not honestly sure.

UHD BluRay is a niche format on its best day... or the next SACD....
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Originally Posted by rogo View Post
Market size for 100-inch TVs? Really freakin' small. Market size for a 4K physical media format? Pretty darned small. I suppose the former is smaller than the latter. But I'm not honestly sure. UHD BluRay is a niche format on its best day... or the next SACD....
Hopefully you can reach the depth of my logic. I am not saying: you proudly owners of 40" 4K TVs you now get your well deserved UHD 4K BluRays. The UHDBR makes sense only for the viewing distance in the range of ~2PH which in the living room means 100"+ class display. The combination of 100"OLED+UHDBR will be indeed an exclusive niche product for massaging retina with 100 Mb/s of sweet 4K pixels. Crowds below the 100" may live happily with their 10Mb/s 4K netflixes. But the 100"/100 Mb/s category is for the audiovisual aristocracy.
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post #12084 of 13441 Old 05-14-2015, 06:19 PM
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Market size for a 4K physical media format? Pretty darned small.
Is it any smaller than the market for 4K streaming? I think most people serious about 4K/UHD would rather have physical media.
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post #12085 of 13441 Old 05-14-2015, 06:42 PM
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Is it any smaller than the market for 4K streaming? I think most people serious about 4K/UHD would rather have physical media.
Actually, what I would like is the ability to stream 4K video into a 1080p OLED that downsamples the 2160p stream down to 1080p 4:4:4.

It pisses me off that my 55EC9300 can only stream the HD versions on Amazon and Netflix - the 4K versions were noticably superior ('Bluray quality').
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post #12086 of 13441 Old 05-15-2015, 06:21 AM
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Actually, what I would like is the ability to stream 4K video into a 1080p OLED that downsamples the 2160p stream down to 1080p 4:4:4.
Absolutely! And (AYK) I've been saying this for years now.


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It pisses me off that my 55EC9300 can only stream the HD versions on Amazon and Netflix - the 4K versions were noticably superior ('Bluray quality').
It would require an intermediary of some kind (probably an HTPC) that knows how to "pretend" to be connected to a 4K display, either simply in some kind of configuration or if absolutely necessary, some kind of slight of hand at the OS level. It's not clear to me that "smart BDP's" (even super sophisticated ones like the Oppo) would be able to get around this issue though due to licensing.

@#$%.

The other alternative would be a "fakeout box" (<----my term) that sits between your TV and the sourcing device. It would report itself as a 4K display and then send 2K/4:4:4 to the TV.

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post #12087 of 13441 Old 05-15-2015, 09:55 AM
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Is it any smaller than the market for 4K streaming? I think most people serious about 4K/UHD would rather have physical media.
The number of people who are interested but not especially serious will outstrip the number of people who are serious rather rapidly.

Plus, 4K aficionados today are entirely existing in a streaming/broadcast/self-created/hard drive market. They are living with 4K already and making do with what exists.

Sure, some will spend big for the slightly better universe to come. But that's almost definitionally a subset of the former group.

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post #12088 of 13441 Old 05-15-2015, 10:02 AM
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Absolutely! And (AYK) I've been saying this for years now.




It would require an intermediary of some kind (probably an HTPC) that knows how to "pretend" to be connected to a 4K display, either simply in some kind of configuration or if absolutely necessary, some kind of slight of hand at the OS level. It's not clear to me that "smart BDP's" (even super sophisticated ones like the Oppo) would be able to get around this issue though due to licensing.

@#$%.

The other alternative would be a "fakeout box" (<----my term) that sits between your TV and the sourcing device. It would report itself as a 4K display and then send 2K/4:4:4 to the TV.
Sounds like a candidate for a crowd-finding project - if you ever see or hear of anything to that effect, please let me know...
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post #12089 of 13441 Old 05-15-2015, 10:55 AM
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[QUOTE=rogo;34209242]Market size for 100-inch TVs? Really freakin' small.



At the cost of a 100" OLED, I guess that market would be right up there alongside, owners of Leer jets and Lamborghini Veneno Roadsters.


If the price would ever drop to Sam's Club prices then everyone will have one parked in their living room regardless of whether they can't tell the difference between 4K or standard def, but they'll be able to brag to their friends , hey I got a 100" 4K/UHD tv.
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post #12090 of 13441 Old 05-16-2015, 10:48 AM
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At the cost of a 100" OLED, I guess that market would be right up there alongside, owners of Leer jets and Lamborghini Veneno Roadsters. If the price would ever drop to Sam's Club prices then everyone will have one parked in their living room regardless of whether they can't tell the difference between 4K or standard def, but they'll be able to brag to their friends , hey I got a 100" 4K/UHD tv.
The cost of 100"+ OLEDs does not have to be mythical. Take 55" OLED, a 110" OLED is equivalent to 4x55" on a glass sheet. So the asymptotic limit price for the 110" is four times the 55". Then one has to add lower yield of the 110", plus more complicated assembly plus logistics. I see as the maximum price of 110"=8x55" and real price somewhere in between. This is within the limits of high-end enthusiasts especially if the price downtrend would follow the 55" price trend.

Regarding the market size of 4K BluRay it will obviously be miniature comparing to the crowds sucking cheapy 4K from the Internet nipples. But it will definitely be popular among the segment of videophiles and movie enthusiasts caring about quality. Now we are coming to a curious combination: the segment buying 4K BluRays will know very well that 100"+ OLED is needed for optimal experience. Having genuine superb UHD content will create demand for such displays. In particular I see high-end projectors being eliminated from home theater installations if such displays arrive. BTW, even at the introduction the UHD Blu-Ray players will cost only 2-3x of HD players and content have the same price. One can thus expect the UHD players merging with the HD very quickly and there will be only UHD players after some time.
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