OLED TVs: Technology Advancements Thread - Page 405 - AVS | Home Theater Discussions And Reviews
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post #12121 of 12132 Old 05-21-2015, 01:21 PM
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Originally Posted by irkuck View Post
99 incher is: a) a statement: I, OLED, am the King - which brings tons of free media marketing,
I hear your words, read the entire post, but I believe this ^^^^ to be classic AVS myopia. I just cannot see how a 99 incher is going to bring any more free media than similar sizes have in the past for other technologies, nor can I see how the size of the display says anything about OLED being "the King".

Guess we'll have to agree to disagree, because your statements just seem like jump discontinuities to me.

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post #12122 of 12132 Old 05-21-2015, 03:19 PM
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Originally Posted by slacker711 View Post
So my benchmark for the roadmap would be the beginning of construction of an E5 fab with a capacity of at least 75000 substrates a month by next spring. That fab would begin ramping shipments sometime in the 2nd half of 2017 and would bring total unyielded OLED capacity to 7.8 million 55" units a year.
So by this logic and given that "ramping" isn't completion of all those and that 65s and up take away from the total not to mention yield... Our timetables aren't very off. You could imagine in this universe something above 6 million 55s in 2018, I can see exceeding 7 million finished goods all sizes in 2020 without straining (see above). My number (not a forecast) appears overcautious, which is good.
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Yes, that is as much as I think it is realistic to expect LGD to do. Further market share in that time period is going to have to come from Samsung. I doubt they do nothing as OLED's take over the vast majority of their high-end share.
Right.

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Originally Posted by ynotgoal View Post
Since you are focused on market share here is one of LG's first statements on OLED outselling LCD so having 50% market share. 10 years.
My focus on it is solely because I believe it's needed for viability, not because I believe in it for the sake of market share.
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LG Display said Tuesday it expects to sell 600,000 OLED TV panels this year and 1.5 million next year. The company also cited comments made at the press event by Ching W. Tang, a professor at the University of Rochester in New York and "the father of OLED." He said OLED displays will not become ubiquitous for another five to 10 years. At that point, Tang said, they could outpace LCDs in total shipments.
As fafrd notes, without 3rd party help, that's unrealistic at this point. [Laughs again at the mocking I took when I pointed out in 2012 OLED couldn't possibly take over from LCD by 2020.]
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As for, will they do it...

Yeo Sang-deog, the president of LG Display’s OLED division mentioned that OLED panel will become LG Display’s future cash cow and suggested that LG Display could be reorganized to focus on OLED business.
Let's hope, and not just for TV.

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This shouldnt take multiple years. If they sell anywhere near 600,000 units this year, they'll have a good idea about their ability to increase demand as the price decreases. They also should have a decent idea on whether they can bring 4K yields up to their 1080p counterparts.

Those are the two major factors that will make the decision for the next fab. Prove those out and they can begin building next spring.
I guess I need to see the pricing action that's selling all of this. At current prices, they can't sell anywhere near 600K TVs.

There is no difference in HDMI cables. If you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working. (Oh, and plasma didn't die because of logistics problems, nor does OLED ship in big boxes because it comes from Korea.)
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post #12123 of 12132 Old 05-21-2015, 04:02 PM
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Power and its distribution for a ~100inch screen is likely another source of cost that may not be considered thoroughly when thinking about how to carve up panels for the varying sizes. IOW a 100 inch screen isn't just going to be double the cost of a 65 inch one and the associated R&D that will go into that size/product line may get spread out amonst fewer panels (depending on how they choose to treat their accounting/pricing of course).

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post #12124 of 12132 Old 05-21-2015, 09:07 PM
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Originally Posted by mo949 View Post
Power and its distribution for a ~100inch screen is likely another source of cost that may not be considered thoroughly when thinking about how to carve up panels for the varying sizes. IOW a 100 inch screen isn't just going to be double the cost of a 55 inch one and the associated R&D that will go into that size/product line may get spread out amonst fewer panels (depending on how they choose to treat their accounting/pricing of course).
Double, no. Roughly 3X, yes.

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post #12125 of 12132 Old Yesterday, 04:46 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mo949 View Post
Power and its distribution for a ~100inch screen is likely another source of cost that may not be considered thoroughly when thinking about how to carve up panels for the varying sizes. IOW a 100 inch screen isn't just going to be double the cost of a 55 inch one and the associated R&D that will go into that size/product line may get spread out amonst fewer panels (depending on how they choose to treat their accounting/pricing of course).
Didn't Panasonic make a jumbo plasma once (100" or larger) but what they didn't count on was that it was too large to ship?

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post #12126 of 12132 Old Yesterday, 06:46 AM
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Originally Posted by rogo View Post
So by this logic and given that "ramping" isn't completion of all those and that 65s and up take away from the total not to mention yield... Our timetables aren't very off. You could imagine in this universe something above 6 million 55s in 2018, I can see exceeding 7 million finished goods all sizes in 2020 without straining (see above). My number (not a forecast) appears overcautious, which is good.
I think it will almost be binary in its outcome. If LGD does build the third fab with sufficient size to take over most of the high-end market, then I think you can count on more capacity coming on line by 2020 from Samsung and/or the Chinese. The WRGB patents are a barrier, but Samsung will either test the patents in court or get the Korean government to force LGD to license them. That's how you'll get the exponential growth in capacity.

If LGD doesnt build a third fab, then I'd make sure to get the 2017 model.
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post #12127 of 12132 Old Yesterday, 05:10 PM
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Didn't Panasonic make a jumbo plasma once (100" or larger) but what they didn't count on was that it was too large to ship?
Yes, they made a couple. The one I've gotten to view at a more affluent associates home was 103", but I'm pretty sure they had a few significantly larger than that....and then a jumbo one at a ballpark or something.
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post #12128 of 12132 Old Yesterday, 05:11 PM
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Originally Posted by fafrd View Post
Double, no. Roughly 3X, yes.
I meant to say 65inch screen. I've edited it.
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post #12129 of 12132 Old Yesterday, 06:27 PM
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Originally Posted by mo949 View Post
I meant to say 65inch screen. I've edited it.
A 99" OLED will be a bit over 1.5X the cost of a 65" OLED...

But since LG will almost certainly be manufacturing this 99" OLED on the M1 pilot line where 65" OLEDs are not manufactured, it is a somewhat moot discussion (while the comparison to cost for a 55" 1080p OLED is not...).
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post #12130 of 12132 Old Yesterday, 06:46 PM
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Originally Posted by slacker711 View Post
I think it will almost be binary in its outcome.
Yes.
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If LGD does build the third fab with sufficient size to take over most of the high-end market, then I think you can count on more capacity coming on line by 2020 from Samsung and/or the Chinese.
Yes.
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The WRGB patents are a barrier, but Samsung will either test the patents in court or get the Korean government to force LGD to license them. That's how you'll get the exponential growth in capacity.
Yes.
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If LGD doesnt build a third fab, then I'd make sure to get the 2017 model.
I will get one anyway if the price is right on a 77". If there's no 3rd fab, I'll buy a 65" in 2017 and hope it lasts 5 years until, well, something better comes along.

There is no difference in HDMI cables. If you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working. (Oh, and plasma didn't die because of logistics problems, nor does OLED ship in big boxes because it comes from Korea.)
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post #12131 of 12132 Old Today, 11:34 AM
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Would LGD accept payment from Samsung to have patent rights if the price was right? They could recoup a good chunk of change and use that to further invest in Oled. Would lg even consider such a proposal to avoid maybe the inevitable battle of lawsuits? Or does LGD want to remain sole source for oled panels and ramp up to be a supplier to manufactures?
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post #12132 of 12132 Old Today, 11:49 AM
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Originally Posted by Jason626 View Post
Would LGD accept payment from Samsung to have patent rights if the price was right? They could recoup a good chunk of change and use that to further invest in Oled. Would lg even consider such a proposal to avoid maybe the inevitable battle of lawsuits? Or does LGD want to remain sole source for oled panels and ramp up to be a supplier to manufactures?
'If the price was right' depends on whose perspective is being used to make that determination.

For $1, I doubt LG would be interested to license their patent rights to Samsung. For a price of 50% or more of what LG paid Kodak for those patents (which was in the range of $350M or perhaps even $650M), I suspect they would at least be willing to consider it
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