OLED TVs: Technology Advancements Thread - Page 405 - AVS | Home Theater Discussions And Reviews
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post #12121 of 12141 Unread 05-21-2015, 01:21 PM
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Originally Posted by irkuck View Post
99 incher is: a) a statement: I, OLED, am the King - which brings tons of free media marketing,
I hear your words, read the entire post, but I believe this ^^^^ to be classic AVS myopia. I just cannot see how a 99 incher is going to bring any more free media than similar sizes have in the past for other technologies, nor can I see how the size of the display says anything about OLED being "the King".

Guess we'll have to agree to disagree, because your statements just seem like jump discontinuities to me.

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post #12122 of 12141 Unread 05-21-2015, 03:19 PM
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Originally Posted by slacker711 View Post
So my benchmark for the roadmap would be the beginning of construction of an E5 fab with a capacity of at least 75000 substrates a month by next spring. That fab would begin ramping shipments sometime in the 2nd half of 2017 and would bring total unyielded OLED capacity to 7.8 million 55" units a year.
So by this logic and given that "ramping" isn't completion of all those and that 65s and up take away from the total not to mention yield... Our timetables aren't very off. You could imagine in this universe something above 6 million 55s in 2018, I can see exceeding 7 million finished goods all sizes in 2020 without straining (see above). My number (not a forecast) appears overcautious, which is good.
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Yes, that is as much as I think it is realistic to expect LGD to do. Further market share in that time period is going to have to come from Samsung. I doubt they do nothing as OLED's take over the vast majority of their high-end share.
Right.

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Originally Posted by ynotgoal View Post
Since you are focused on market share here is one of LG's first statements on OLED outselling LCD so having 50% market share. 10 years.
My focus on it is solely because I believe it's needed for viability, not because I believe in it for the sake of market share.
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LG Display said Tuesday it expects to sell 600,000 OLED TV panels this year and 1.5 million next year. The company also cited comments made at the press event by Ching W. Tang, a professor at the University of Rochester in New York and "the father of OLED." He said OLED displays will not become ubiquitous for another five to 10 years. At that point, Tang said, they could outpace LCDs in total shipments.
As fafrd notes, without 3rd party help, that's unrealistic at this point. [Laughs again at the mocking I took when I pointed out in 2012 OLED couldn't possibly take over from LCD by 2020.]
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As for, will they do it...

Yeo Sang-deog, the president of LG Display’s OLED division mentioned that OLED panel will become LG Display’s future cash cow and suggested that LG Display could be reorganized to focus on OLED business.
Let's hope, and not just for TV.

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This shouldnt take multiple years. If they sell anywhere near 600,000 units this year, they'll have a good idea about their ability to increase demand as the price decreases. They also should have a decent idea on whether they can bring 4K yields up to their 1080p counterparts.

Those are the two major factors that will make the decision for the next fab. Prove those out and they can begin building next spring.
I guess I need to see the pricing action that's selling all of this. At current prices, they can't sell anywhere near 600K TVs.

There is no difference in HDMI cables. If you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working. (Oh, and plasma didn't die because of logistics problems, nor does OLED ship in big boxes because it comes from Korea.)
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post #12123 of 12141 Unread 05-21-2015, 04:02 PM
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Power and its distribution for a ~100inch screen is likely another source of cost that may not be considered thoroughly when thinking about how to carve up panels for the varying sizes. IOW a 100 inch screen isn't just going to be double the cost of a 65 inch one and the associated R&D that will go into that size/product line may get spread out amonst fewer panels (depending on how they choose to treat their accounting/pricing of course).

Last edited by mo949; 05-22-2015 at 05:11 PM.
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post #12124 of 12141 Unread 05-21-2015, 09:07 PM
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Originally Posted by mo949 View Post
Power and its distribution for a ~100inch screen is likely another source of cost that may not be considered thoroughly when thinking about how to carve up panels for the varying sizes. IOW a 100 inch screen isn't just going to be double the cost of a 55 inch one and the associated R&D that will go into that size/product line may get spread out amonst fewer panels (depending on how they choose to treat their accounting/pricing of course).
Double, no. Roughly 3X, yes.

Last edited by fafrd; 05-22-2015 at 11:28 AM.
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post #12125 of 12141 Unread 05-22-2015, 04:46 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mo949 View Post
Power and its distribution for a ~100inch screen is likely another source of cost that may not be considered thoroughly when thinking about how to carve up panels for the varying sizes. IOW a 100 inch screen isn't just going to be double the cost of a 55 inch one and the associated R&D that will go into that size/product line may get spread out amonst fewer panels (depending on how they choose to treat their accounting/pricing of course).
Didn't Panasonic make a jumbo plasma once (100" or larger) but what they didn't count on was that it was too large to ship?

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post #12126 of 12141 Unread 05-22-2015, 06:46 AM
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Originally Posted by rogo View Post
So by this logic and given that "ramping" isn't completion of all those and that 65s and up take away from the total not to mention yield... Our timetables aren't very off. You could imagine in this universe something above 6 million 55s in 2018, I can see exceeding 7 million finished goods all sizes in 2020 without straining (see above). My number (not a forecast) appears overcautious, which is good.
I think it will almost be binary in its outcome. If LGD does build the third fab with sufficient size to take over most of the high-end market, then I think you can count on more capacity coming on line by 2020 from Samsung and/or the Chinese. The WRGB patents are a barrier, but Samsung will either test the patents in court or get the Korean government to force LGD to license them. That's how you'll get the exponential growth in capacity.

If LGD doesnt build a third fab, then I'd make sure to get the 2017 model.
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post #12127 of 12141 Unread 05-22-2015, 05:10 PM
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Originally Posted by JimP View Post
Didn't Panasonic make a jumbo plasma once (100" or larger) but what they didn't count on was that it was too large to ship?
Yes, they made a couple. The one I've gotten to view at a more affluent associates home was 103", but I'm pretty sure they had a few significantly larger than that....and then a jumbo one at a ballpark or something.
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post #12128 of 12141 Unread 05-22-2015, 05:11 PM
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Originally Posted by fafrd View Post
Double, no. Roughly 3X, yes.
I meant to say 65inch screen. I've edited it.
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post #12129 of 12141 Unread 05-22-2015, 06:27 PM
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Originally Posted by mo949 View Post
I meant to say 65inch screen. I've edited it.
A 99" OLED will be a bit over 1.5X the cost of a 65" OLED...

But since LG will almost certainly be manufacturing this 99" OLED on the M1 pilot line where 65" OLEDs are not manufactured, it is a somewhat moot discussion (while the comparison to cost for a 55" 1080p OLED is not...).
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post #12130 of 12141 Unread 05-22-2015, 06:46 PM
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Originally Posted by slacker711 View Post
I think it will almost be binary in its outcome.
Yes.
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If LGD does build the third fab with sufficient size to take over most of the high-end market, then I think you can count on more capacity coming on line by 2020 from Samsung and/or the Chinese.
Yes.
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The WRGB patents are a barrier, but Samsung will either test the patents in court or get the Korean government to force LGD to license them. That's how you'll get the exponential growth in capacity.
Yes.
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If LGD doesnt build a third fab, then I'd make sure to get the 2017 model.
I will get one anyway if the price is right on a 77". If there's no 3rd fab, I'll buy a 65" in 2017 and hope it lasts 5 years until, well, something better comes along.

There is no difference in HDMI cables. If you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working. (Oh, and plasma didn't die because of logistics problems, nor does OLED ship in big boxes because it comes from Korea.)
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post #12131 of 12141 Unread 05-23-2015, 11:34 AM
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Would LGD accept payment from Samsung to have patent rights if the price was right? They could recoup a good chunk of change and use that to further invest in Oled. Would lg even consider such a proposal to avoid maybe the inevitable battle of lawsuits? Or does LGD want to remain sole source for oled panels and ramp up to be a supplier to manufactures?
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post #12132 of 12141 Unread 05-23-2015, 11:49 AM
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Originally Posted by Jason626 View Post
Would LGD accept payment from Samsung to have patent rights if the price was right? They could recoup a good chunk of change and use that to further invest in Oled. Would lg even consider such a proposal to avoid maybe the inevitable battle of lawsuits? Or does LGD want to remain sole source for oled panels and ramp up to be a supplier to manufactures?
'If the price was right' depends on whose perspective is being used to make that determination.

For $1, I doubt LG would be interested to license their patent rights to Samsung. For a price of 50% or more of what LG paid Kodak for those patents (which was in the range of $350M or perhaps even $650M), I suspect they would at least be willing to consider it
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post #12133 of 12141 Unread 05-24-2015, 04:42 AM
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Originally Posted by tgm1024 View Post
I hear your words, read the entire post, but I believe this ^^^^ to be classic AVS myopia. I just cannot see how a 99 incher is going to bring any more free media than similar sizes have in the past for other technologies, nor can I see how the size of the display says anything about OLED being "the King". Guess we'll have to agree to disagree, because your statements just seem like jump discontinuities to me.
You simply don't see the depth of my preaching. Take example of current Samsung LCD top JS9500 series with the 88" flagship for over $20K . It packs a lot of goodies: FALD, QDF, HDR and has blessing reviews.
This 88" is Samsung strategic response to OLED but it is evident that the LG 99" OLED will put it in the backseat (and, yes, I got now the eureka moment why the 99" is just 99" - see the 88" ? ). OLED will be
the King and Samsung will try to repair the damage by launching genuine 100"+ sets.

What is working on the side of 99" OLED is the coming UHDBR, this will be ultimate experience whose only missing piece is the price. But it is not crazy to think the 99" OLED could match the price of the 88" LCD next year.

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Originally Posted by rogo View Post
I will get one anyway if the price is right on a 77". If there's no 3rd fab, I'll buy a 65" in 2017 and hope it lasts 5 years until, well, something better comes along.
2017 will be the year of real 4K: Display size matched to the living room viewing distance for optimal transfer of the UHDBR pixels to the retina. Prepare for buying 99"+ O'LED then .
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post #12134 of 12141 Unread 05-24-2015, 06:20 PM
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Originally Posted by slacker711 View Post
LG Display held a press conference in Korea showcasing OLED's as their next gen display technology.

http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20150519000867

https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/new...33_179191.html

- They reiterated their sales goal of 600,000 units this year and 1.5 million units next year.

- They plan to expand production to 120,000 to 130,000 units in the third quarter.

- They plan to release a 99" OLED within the year.

- They showed off a 55" OLED that was .97mm thick and weighs 1.9kg. You can hang it on the wall using magnets.

- Talked about OLED's hitting an 80% yield. They have used that figure before but the question is whether they have hit that kind of number for 4K units.
I just read through both articles and found no reference to a 99" OLED - where did you see that?

Perhaps I just answered my own question: http://www.oled-info.com/lg-display-...-oled-tv-panel

"Finally, LG revealed plans to release a large 99" TV within the year."

Last edited by fafrd; 05-24-2015 at 07:19 PM.
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LG investing some portion of $6.3B in the expansion of M2 to a full 26,000 substrates this month: http://www.oled-info.com/digitimes-s...tly-lower-2014

Also this, which I had not seen before: http://www.oled-info.com/displaysear...illion-revenue

According to DisplaySearch, actual OLED TV sales to dare are as follows:

FY 2013 4500 (mainly in Q4)
Q1 2014 4600
Q2 2014 13,500
Q3 2014 16,900
Q4 2014 42,400
Q1 2015 50,000

Whether this is accurate or not, LG needs another 2-2.5X increase in quarterly volume this quarter if they want ant hope of reaching their target of 600,000 OLED TVs this year (if they have only sold a total of 100,000 in 2015 by mid-year, the 600K target is pretty much out of reach for this year).
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Let's just assume it's out of reach. 250K in Q2/Q3 seems impossible. 300K in Q4 seems impossible. It seems impossible.

But they will ramp. And with the expansion, capacity should be more than 350K per quarter in an all 55s world, right? So things are moving....

There is no difference in HDMI cables. If you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working. (Oh, and plasma didn't die because of logistics problems, nor does OLED ship in big boxes because it comes from Korea.)
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post #12137 of 12141 Unread Yesterday, 05:31 PM
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Let's just assume it's out of reach. 250K in Q2/Q3 seems impossible. 300K in Q4 seems impossible. It seems impossible.

But they will ramp. And with the expansion, capacity should be more than 350K per quarter in an all 55s world, right? So things are moving....
Yes, with the commit to expand the current phase-I M2 capacity of 6000 sheets per month to the full 26,000 sheets per month by Q3 (which translates to the beginning of Q4 and hopefully ends up meaning by early 2016), things are definitely moving.

In an all 55" world, the increase in M2 capacity translates into an additional 85-95K 55" 4K OLEDs per month (depending on whether you want to use a yield of 70% or 80%) from the Phase-I level of 25-30K they have in place today.

At full 26,000 sheet-per-month capacity, M2 is able to put out 1.5M 55" 4K OLEDs in a year all by itself without accounting for any continuation of 55" 1080p OLEDs (or 99" 4K OLEDs ;-) coming off of M1.

So taking the DisplaySeatch estimate of 50K OLEDs sold in Q1 2015, LG should be Ina position to deliver a10X increase in volume in Q1 2016, which is about as aggressive of a capacity ramp as is reasonably for a new technology in an established market...
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The 55-inch OLED TV panel is only 0.97 mm thick and sticks to the wall with magnets. LG Display also plans to introduce a 99-inch OLED panel later this year, according to Yonhap News.

1mm OLED TV panel

Earlier today, LG Display showcased the latest development in OLED technology. The highlight of the show was a 55-inch “wallpaper” OLED panel that is only 0.97 millimeters thick. The existing OLED panel in LG’s 55-inch TV is 4.3 mm thick.

The OLED panel is so thin and so light (1.9 kilograms) that it can stick to the wall only by using a magnetic mat. LG did not comment on its plans for commercialization of the panel.

Wish there was more info about this event, looks like a lot of interesting oled tech on display







What is the edge slice, bezel-less set?
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post #12139 of 12141 Unread Today, 10:53 AM
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A 99" OLED will be a bit over 1.5X the cost of a 65" OLED...
I wish they would manufacture a ((" OLED TV I would replace my projector

Hopefully they will also include



The benefits of a Dolby Vision TV, at a glance

April 14, 2015 Dolby Vision
We’ve written a number of posts about the technology behind Dolby Vision™ and the imaging experts who are helping to create it. But when it comes time to buy a TV, what you really care about is what you’ll see on the screen and why we believe that image will be better than other TVs you could buy.
That’s why we’ve put together the infographic below. It shows at a glance the advantages Dolby Vision TVs will have over TVs that use conventional imaging technologies: vastly improved contrast, with much brighter highlights and profound darks that still show details, combined with a far wider color gamut than conventional TVs.
One other advantage: Only Dolby Vision televisions will be able to show Dolby Vision content in its full glory. As content creators start to produce their content in Dolby Vision, we’ll see movies and television shows that have a dynamic range and depth of detail and color that reflects what you see in real life. To see that content as the filmmaker intended, you’ll need a Dolby Vision enabled TV.
This week, VIZIO announced the VIZIO Reference Series 65-inch and 120-inch Ultra HD Full-Array LED Smart TVs, which feature Dolby Vision technology. In addition, VUDU, Walmart’s video-on-demand service, confirmed that it will distribute 4K, Ultra HD Dolby Vision titles from Warner Bros., including Edge of Tomorrow, The Lego Movie and Into the Storm.
(Click on the infographic below to see it at full size. Depending on your browser, you may need to click twice.)
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post #12140 of 12141 Unread Today, 03:17 PM
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I wish they would manufacture a ((" OLED TV I would replace my projector

Hopefully they will also include



The benefits of a Dolby Vision TV, at a glance

April 14, 2015 Dolby Vision
We’ve written a number of posts about the technology behind Dolby Vision™ and the imaging experts who are helping to create it. But when it comes time to buy a TV, what you really care about is what you’ll see on the screen and why we believe that image will be better than other TVs you could buy.
That’s why we’ve put together the infographic below. It shows at a glance the advantages Dolby Vision TVs will have over TVs that use conventional imaging technologies: vastly improved contrast, with much brighter highlights and profound darks that still show details, combined with a far wider color gamut than conventional TVs.
One other advantage: Only Dolby Vision televisions will be able to show Dolby Vision content in its full glory. As content creators start to produce their content in Dolby Vision, we’ll see movies and television shows that have a dynamic range and depth of detail and color that reflects what you see in real life. To see that content as the filmmaker intended, you’ll need a Dolby Vision enabled TV.
This week, VIZIO announced the VIZIO Reference Series 65-inch and 120-inch Ultra HD Full-Array LED Smart TVs, which feature Dolby Vision technology. In addition, VUDU, Walmart’s video-on-demand service, confirmed that it will distribute 4K, Ultra HD Dolby Vision titles from Warner Bros., including Edge of Tomorrow, The Lego Movie and Into the Storm.
(Click on the infographic below to see it at full size. Depending on your browser, you may need to click twice.)
That looks like a pro-Vizio site. Someone tries to make us believe that we are talking here about the Dolby Vizio Vision Dolby has its own Sharp FALD to demonstate Dolby Vision so why bring up the Vizio Reference Series?? btw The Vizio Reference Series was announced in januari 2014. Recently Vizio announced that it will be in the stores by october 2015, currently it is vaporware..
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post #12141 of 12141 Unread Today, 05:32 PM
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That looks like a pro-Vizio site. Someone tries to make us believe that we are talking here about the Dolby Vizio Vision Dolby has its own Sharp FALD to demonstate Dolby Vision so why bring up the Vizio Reference Series?? btw The Vizio Reference Series was announced in januari 2014. Recently Vizio announced that it will be in the stores by october 2015, currently it is vaporware..
Where did you see that announcement?
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