Originally Posted by rogo
Rogo Realist is so much better than Debbie Downer!
Well, Rogo the Realist it is then
Yeah, I don't think ROW has this hidden premium 55" market that's just waiting for a product from LG to fill a niche than even Samsung -- with scores of TV models -- can't place a product in. This makes me decidedly less than sanguine about delivering 1+ million 55-inch 4K sets next year unless the pricing is pretty much "Wow!"
Well, if there is not a significant market in the ROW for premium 55" TVs selling for $2500, I think LG is going to be in trouble next year.
I like when things play out as what I know tells me they would. So yeah, I do like that number. I wonder about how much volume they can squeeze out at it, as I say just above. That doesn't mean I don't believe the volume is substantial -- I'm sure it's quite substantial -- but if you think, "LG can sell 1 million TVs like that" I'm skeptical. That's 0.5% of all the TVs sold in the world. For one SKU* to do that (1) from LG (2) with what I suspect is fundamentally limited distribution based on price at $2500 (3) at the very, very top end of a category (4) in a size that's unlikely to attract top-end buyers in North America... It feels like a stretch.
* Going flat and curved or offering multiple designs of the same basic TV doesn't change the fact it's inherently one SKU.
What is your view on the rumored sales volume of 80K OLED TVs sold by LG in Q2 of this year? That would have to be almost all 55" (mainly 1080p with perhaps a sliver of 4K) at prices of $2500 (and some dipping closer to $2000, at least here in the US).
On an annual basis, that would amount to over 300,000, which would still be just a fraction of the 1.5M LG says they are aiming at (and have the installed capacity for) in 2016.
If this is going to go anywhere, I think we are going to see prices in the $2500 for 55" and $4000 for 65" by this holiday season (which sets the stage for pricing approaching the $2000 level for 55" and $3000-3500 level for 65" in 2016). That kind of aggressive cost/volume curve, coupled with an actual 77" OLED at prices undercutting the Sony 75X940C would start to have the feel of an initiative that might actually start breaking out into (premium TV) mass-market levels...
Anything less than that feels like another year of cautiously testing the waters...
Yeah, that's ugly. I'd bet though the top end 55s are already SKUs that sell on the order of 100K units. I'm not sure protecting share there matters so long as there is product. And I'm skeptical Samsung doesn't have a price umbrella they can sneak under to allow them to go to $2000.
But this is a legitimate concern for them, I concur.
Samsung's low TV profitability is a reflection of their significant marketing investments while needing to compete with the Vizio's of the world (at least here in the U.S., at least until Vizio's IPO
But Samsung knows how to use their muscle, and if either LGs OLED I itiative or Vizio/Dolby's Vision/HDR initiative shows any signs of gaining momentum, you can bet your booties on a strong response from Samsung (meaning lower pricing in an attempt to keep the OLED wind out of LG's sails and/or the HDR wind out of Vizio's sails (or maybe better, sales