Originally Posted by tgm1024
I know you're speaking in aggregates, and not strictly list pricing, but what I find encouraging is that the amazon
price went from $9000 to $6000 in 5 months. 33% couldn't possibly be repeatable every 5 months of course, .....but it certainly gives me significant pause to wonder what it'd be like if it did.
price = list * (0.66 ^ (months / 5))
....sort of gets my attention.
I'm inclined to dismiss that kind of trend without seeing it repeatedly, including on newly announced models.
Originally Posted by sytech
These prices are pretty much meaningless without knowing cost. LG could sell them for $1000 each if they wanted to take greater than the $500 per unit loss they are currently taking. All this is clearance pricing anyway. The real clues is in the pricing of the 4K 55EF9500 at $5K and 65EF9500 at $7K. Still about 3X higher than where they need to be. The one piece of good news is the 8.5 billion dollar investment in OLED that LG is making. Though it is hard to determine how much of that is for the large format market. OLED is going to remain niche much longer than expected as WHF LCD continues to drop to levels it can not match. Once the price the 4K 55" OLED is at $1500 and 65" at $2500, then we know they have cracked the yield problems and it finally has a chance at the mass consumer market.
Right, those are very intriguing numbers Sytech: $1500/$2500. And those are 2017-18 at the absolute soonest
, I think it's safe to assume. In fact, they would require the next-gen fab to be online because I think we can make a strong case that LG sells out of M1/M2 production at somewhat
higher prices (notably: cracking $3500 on the 65" moves it into interesting territory, $3000 into much more interesting territory. On the 55", a real 4K for $2500 is mildly intriguing, at $2000 it's more intriguing.)
The $1500/$2500 benchmarks start to allow LG to think about selling millions of OLED TVs. It's somewhat probable that $1000/$2000 starts them thinking about many millions... The challenge, of course, is that everyone else isn't going to just concede market share. And there are very legitimate questions as to OLED TV will ever reach the levels LCD is at today. You can buy a 60" for well under $1000 at retail. I doubt LG has a price target like $800/60" anywhere on the road map. I am skeptical they intend to deliver a 65" at $1500 in the foreseeable future either -- which would allow LG to at least be price competitive with retail 70" TVs.
Most of the $8.5B is going to mobile. I think it's correct (per slacker) that LG and Apple already have a deal for an iPhone that is like 2017's model to use OLED. There exists some fairly small possibility that something happens there in 2016.
The TV stuff, even if we assume 125% growth off of next year's mythic 1.5M would be sub 8M units in 2018. At that point, growth will definitionally slow because building fab capacity becomes a constraint. LG seems incapable of selling even 10% of the world's TVs with OLED in 2020. But a much larger share of the 55" and up market is plausible and an even larger share of the premium market is plausible.
From there, much will depend on whether OLED really does get cheaper to produce (please, everyone, spare me the "no backlight = cheaper" facile argument here) and how quickly others can produce them. LG has a huge lead, but the development of the ecosystem that will let them get past 10M annually will help all competitors. That's just the way things work. And if printing ever becomes viable, it's actually a chance for competitors to leapfrog the pioneer.