Originally Posted by slacker711
I am a bit skeptical of the date, but Samsung is clearly aiming to bring a foldable smartphone to market much faster than I would have thought possible two years ago. I doubt that this will be the completely flat folding device that we all imagine but it will be interesting to how much progress Samsung has made.
FWIW, I agree on rollable TV's. I cringe every time LGD mentions it.
My sources told me thin-film encapsulation and flexible displays should "tape out" this year, which indicates they have been mostly delayed. Samsung arriving next year is on track with what I've been hearing since 2014ish. One thing I would note is that Samsung is very likely going to roll out a small quantity of whatever they sell -- not unlike those pointless curved phones of a year ago or so -- and this isn't really the moment where the stuff hits mainstream either way.
But to make a lot, you have to make a few. If the "Galaxy Note Flex" or whatever is real, I'm excited to get my hands on one.
Originally Posted by wco81
I imagine the transformer mechanism would be a second display that pops out of the phone and unfurls, not the primary display that expands. Not sure how you'd have a partially rolled up display that would still funtion.
You'd use some pixels and not others. I actually expect a clamshell design to ultimately win here, not some nonsensical unfurling -- even though we've seen that in many videos/mockups. If the screen of a Galaxy Edge continued onto the back of the phone and that piece was a hinged panel that could come out 180 degrees and then "snap" into a rigid plane with the front... You'd be there.
The moving parts would be prone to damage or maybe the transforming mechanism just breaks over time.
Phones are designed to be replaced every 2 years. And many, many phones see screens or bezels break long before that. If I can come close to design my optimal mechanism in my head, someone with the appropriate design skills should achieve an excellent result.
And a larger display, even one that is rolled out, would consume more power so there's that.
Sure, when you use the extra pixels. In a phablet-sized phone, though, I don't see this as a dealbreaker at all. Places like Starbucks have wireless charging built into tables. Other stuff like that is coming.
Originally Posted by fafrd
I thought the same thing but you beat me to it
Something about great minds thinking alike!
Going flat-out including the 26K sheets per month of M2 and the 8K sheets per month of M1, only making 55" TVs (6 per sheet) and assuming a yield of 80%, LG will not quite be able to manufacture 2M OLED panels in 2016, meaning less than 1% of the TV market in 2016 in the best case (on more realistically 0.75% max if the 65" OLEDs are the least bit successful
Right, which any analyst of the display business should know. So anyone who says, "Already at 1%, expanding greatly next year" isn't an analyst of the display business.
Any new capacity LG decides to invest in early next year won't come online until mid-2017 best-case, so I agree with you, getting to 1.25% (meaning 2.5M OLEDs) in 2017 would indicate good solid progress...
Yes, and if that comes to pass I'd be increasingly bullish for continued trends because the next year's growth (2018) would be somewhat baked in at that point.
Measuring OLEDs share as a % of the overall TV market makes less sense in the early going than measuring it as a % of the premium large-screen TV market (55" and above).
I think you've been saying that segment is something like 10% of the overall TV market (so about 20M per year).
It's more like "all TVs 55" and up" is a 20M per year segment, premium or otherwise.
Measured to that standard, everything gets multiplied by 10X, meaning at 500,000 this year, OLED will be 2.5% of the premium-large-screen market; at 2M next year, OLED will be 10% of the premium-large-screen market in 2016; and they could be 12.5% of the premium-large-screen market by 2017.
Because a lot of those 55" and up TVs are not premium (and even if we expand the >=55" segment to 25M, which appears to be an exaggeration), let's say that premium is 2.5-5M. This is actually LG's challenge: 1.5M next year of a segment that might not even twice that in size? Not without (a) more OEMs (b) much lower pricing.
More importantly, assuming any new capacity LG brings online in 2017 will at least double if not triple LGs OLED capability, they could be on-track to ship 4M-6M OLEDs in 2018, meaning 20-30% of the premium-large-screen TV market by 2018. If LG OLED achieved that, that is probably the point of no return
Right, so that's the bull case. Get through the next valley of death and emerge with the ability to make 5M per year. Take 50% share of "premium", which covers maybe 1/2 your production. Take 10-15% of share of "non-premium", mostly from the high end.
If they do that -- which again entails much lower pricing -- I think the trend will continue. If they try and fail to get a huge chunk of premium next year -- bad product mix? bad pricing? -- then it gets much trickier to pull it back together.