OLED TVs: Technology Advancements Thread - Page 415 - AVS Forum | Home Theater Discussions And Reviews
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Old 09-09-2015, 03:17 PM
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Originally Posted by JoeyBagadonuts View Post
I agree.... with one caveat. If 2016 proves to be successful in terms of OLED technology acceptance, then it's possible that Samsung could introduce sets in 2017 using LG panels... as a stop-gap until Samsung's own OLED panel production comes up to speed.
That would require a kiss-and-make-up session of Hurculean proportions (and probably requiring government intervention ).

Samsung knows exactly this market for OLED TVs is likely to develope (bracketed into 'expected' and 'fastest realistically possible'). They know there is absolutely no need to go rushing back in (despite the hopes and dreams of many here on the Forum ).

A flat Panasonic 65CZ950-class WOLED widely available for $3000 might be a threat to Samsung. Until the outlook for that on a 12-18 month horizon looks incredibly likely, I doubt that Samsung deviates from their current course and speed (meaning SUHD HDR and 'the curve' while dabbling in OLED TV R&D on the side ).
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Old 09-09-2015, 03:42 PM
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That would require a kiss-and-make-up session of Hurculean proportions (and probably requiring government intervention ).
Human sacrifice...dogs and cats living together.... mass hysteria!
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Old 09-09-2015, 06:49 PM
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I'm also confounded by 120% of "premium LCD pricing" as even being interesting. That will yield a bigger delta at retail (everything is marked up by percentages at every stage so if production is only 20% more expensive, that 20% if marked up at every stage of distribution).
Is there a quote where they actually say within 120% of "premium LCD pricing"?

I think it is worth waiting a month or so before evaluating their prospects for 2016 but based on pricing of the new models in Germany, I am optimistic. They are within 20% of Samsung's models today based on the pricing there.

http://www.mediamarkt.de/webapp/wcs/...eRef=7fYL9W3hh

55EG9209 3799 Euros vs. 55JS9090 (edge lit) 3199 Euros

65EG9609 5999 Euros vs. 65JS9509 (FALD) 5799 Euros vs. 65JS9090 (edge lit) 4999 Euros

We still need to see about pricing here in the US, but there seem to be hints of sub-$5000 pricing on the 65" flat unit fairly quickly.
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Old 09-09-2015, 08:15 PM
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Originally Posted by slacker711 View Post
Is there a quote where they actually say within 120% of "premium LCD pricing"?

I think it is worth waiting a month or so before evaluating their prospects for 2016 but based on pricing of the new models in Germany, I am optimistic. They are within 20% of Samsung's models today based on the pricing there.

http://www.mediamarkt.de/webapp/wcs/...eRef=7fYL9W3hh

55EG9209 3799 Euros vs. 55JS9090 (edge lit) 3199 Euros

65EG9609 5999 Euros vs. 65JS9509 (FALD) 5799 Euros vs. 65JS9090 (edge lit) 4999 Euros

We still need to see about pricing here in the US, but there seem to be hints of sub-$5000 pricing on the 65" flat unit fairly quickly.
By my math, those prices equate to premiums of 19% on the 55" and 16% on the 65"

Of course, based on some of the discounted prices on the JS9500 here in the U.S., there is a lot of room to take the gloves off and go significantly lower on the 65JS9500 (several folks claiming it can be found for $3000 ).
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Old 09-09-2015, 08:55 PM
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Of course, based on some of the discounted prices on the JS9500 here in the U.S., there is a lot of room to take the gloves off and go significantly lower on the 65JS9500 (several folks claiming it can be found for $3000 ).
If my reading of these threads is correct, going lower wont be enough. After all, the JS9500 series is curved. They might have to pay people $3000 just to haul them away .

It will be interesting to see if Samsung offers a FALD set next year. I doubt that they planned for those kinds of prices on their flagship set just six months after it came out.
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Old 09-09-2015, 09:03 PM
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If my reading of these threads is correct, going lower wont be enough. After all, the JS9500 series is curved. They might have to pay people $3000 just to haul them away .

It will be interesting to see if Samsung offers a FALD set next year. I doubt that they planned for those kinds of prices on their flagship set just six months after it came out.
We'll get the first-ever direct datapoint when LG offers the EG curved OLEDs and the EF flat OLEDs (hopefully at similar prices).

If the EF9500 vastly outsells the EG9600 in Q4 and early next year (at least here in the U.S.), what will be interesting is to see whether Samsung sticks to the curve for their highest-end flagship TVs or follows LGs lead and offers flat variants in 2016.

Samsung successfully killed the industry trend towards FALD backlights once several years ago. Between the emergence of HDR and the fact that virtually every TV maker is now offering FALD flagship TVs (excepting LG, who has WOLED/uber-FALD ), I'm going to be optimistic and hope that FALD at the high-end is now here to stay...
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Old 09-09-2015, 09:05 PM
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An interesting quote from a display insider.....

http://www.displaydaily.com/display-...for-lg-display

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Samsung's plan to make TV OLEDs using polysilicon transistors (rather than the amorphous silicon used by LCDs or the oxides used by LG in its OLED) was to allow a more complex pixel structure using up to seven transistors. LG uses just a single transistor according to a paper presented at last year's SID, and so has to do a lot of processing work off the panel and feed the compensation that it needs to apply for manufacturing and lifetime issues back into the panel through the driving scheme. (We heard at IFA from several directions that Panasonic's knowledge of display driving has been very helpful to LG, although it has also had input from other sources as well).
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Old 09-09-2015, 09:15 PM
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Samsung sticks with fald LCD until Samsung ship an oled on par with price of there fald or lg oled. I can't imagine a scenerio that Samsung wants two different techs to compete at high prices since selling top end tvs is already difficult enough. Oled will take over fald LCD then trickle down slowly as production of oled increases. Especially if rumorville is true for Samsung oled plans.
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Old 09-09-2015, 09:27 PM
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Originally Posted by slacker711 View Post
An interesting quote from a display insider.....

http://www.displaydaily.com/display-...for-lg-display
Thanks.

Not to beat a dead horse, but "compensation that it (LG) needs to apply for manufacturing and lifetime issues back into the panel through the driving scheme" requires a feedback loop.

And since lifetime issues are specifically mentioned, the feedback loop must be entirely in-panel (no external sensor needed, at least to compensate for 'lifetime issues') .
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Old 09-09-2015, 10:58 PM
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Is there a quote where they actually say within 120% of "premium LCD pricing"?
I just took that from the post above mine. And since it allowed a segue into a discussion of where pricing needs to actually be.

I wasn't judging that as a strategy I actually believed was the plan anyway.

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Old 09-12-2015, 04:18 PM
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Oled will be always be priced above LCD as long as the two co exist. Even if the cost to produce was the same.
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Old 09-12-2015, 04:33 PM
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Oled will be always be priced above LCD as long as the two co exist. Even if the cost to produce was the same.
As long as the picture quality of OLED is accepted by the general public as superior to LCD, you are correct.
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Old 09-12-2015, 11:14 PM
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I don't remember what page it was on, but I think it was in this thread that a while back we were talking about how much LG would really be able to judge demand for their product in the short run. My point then was that when your product is multiple times the price it would need to be to sell millions there is pretty limited information about how it will be accepted by the masses when you need to sell those millions.

However, with the latest pricing I've seen for some of these new LG units I think we are at a point where LG should start to get some much better data about whether committing investments for the future is worthwhile, at least on the demand side. And since these prices have hit just before the fourth quarter when a lot of TV purchases are made LG should have quite a bit of good information by the end of the year (and definitely by just after the Superbowl).

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Old 09-13-2015, 02:24 AM
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LG like Samsung and the rest have fillers from the bottom end to top of their TV range. I'm not sure there is a big concern on how well their top tier TVs sell ATM. Its a small part of the market. It's more a tech and spec race, these oleds are gonna be halo products and occupy that space till they iron out the costs to produce in mass. Then the OLED battle will really begin.
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Old 09-13-2015, 02:18 PM
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I don't remember what page it was on, but I think it was in this thread that a while back we were talking about how much LG would really be able to judge demand for their product in the short run. My point then was that when your product is multiple times the price it would need to be to sell millions there is pretty limited information about how it will be accepted by the masses when you need to sell those millions.

However, with the latest pricing I've seen for some of these new LG units I think we are at a point where LG should start to get some much better data about whether committing investments for the future is worthwhile, at least on the demand side. And since these prices have hit just before the fourth quarter when a lot of TV purchases are made LG should have quite a bit of good information by the end of the year (and definitely by just after the Superbowl).

Yes.

And they can't realistically bank on getting even 50% of any particular segment because, well, marketing, shelf space, spiffs, brand choice, et al. mean that not everyone will reflexively just buy the LG even if it hits price parity in a segment.

So they will need to probe in multiple price/size bands to figure out what it will take to, say, move 3 million units in 2017. If you think about the "top 5%" of the market including everything expensive in the 55, 65, 70+ bands, LG would need to sell 1 in 4 TVs in that band to reach such a number in 2017.

They will be non-competitive in many size-price segments even at that point. To achieve those numbers, they will have to be very competitive at some key points, especially when you consider just how few 65"+ TVs are even sold worldwide.

LG will spend the next year tweaking, adjusting, gearing, etc. for that movement. And why? Because they will max out current production if they reach next year's sales target. Just how much future production to bring online will depend on how many LCDs can be met head on with pricing. There is virtually no reason to even build 3 million TVs to sell above LCD pricing. It would be next to impossible to sell that many.

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Old 09-13-2015, 02:46 PM
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Yes.

And they can't realistically bank on getting even 50% of any particular segment because, well, marketing, shelf space, spiffs, brand choice, et al. mean that not everyone will reflexively just buy the LG even if it hits price parity in a segment.

So they will need to probe in multiple price/size bands to figure out what it will take to, say, move 3 million units in 2017. If you think about the "top 5%" of the market including everything expensive in the 55, 65, 70+ bands, LG would need to sell 1 in 4 TVs in that band to reach such a number in 2017.
I believe that means you are estimating about 12 million TVs in that 'expensive 55"+ segment, is that right? Meaning about 5% of the overall TV market (as you already stated ). Do you have a source for that estimate or is that your own swag?

Quote:
They will be non-competitive in many size-price segments even at that point. To achieve those numbers, they will have to be very competitive at some key points, especially when you consider just how few 65"+ TVs are even sold worldwide.
Any estimate for that number (TVs 65" and above)?

Quote:
LG will spend the next year tweaking, adjusting, gearing, etc. for that movement. And why? Because they will max out current production if they reach next year's sales target. Just how much future production to bring online will depend on how many LCDs can be met head on with pricing. There is virtually no reason to even build 3 million TVs to sell above LCD pricing. It would be next to impossible to sell that many.
So if we go with your estimate of 12 million Premium TVs 55" and above, starting now, LG will be pumping out between 1.5-2M OLEDs (depending on whether you include M1 or not, as well of the mix of 65" versus 55") on an annual basis, equating to 12% - 15% of that Premium TV segment.

That's a step up of more than 10X versus the market share LG has had up to now (and the reason I've called it an 'OLED Tsunami' that is hitting the market soon ), and we should get a pretty good read on LGs progress by Q2 next year (which is, not coincidentally, when LG will probably be making decisions about any next investments in increased OLED TV capacity).

The introductory pricing on the new models is encouraging to me that LG is making the required progress. Near-$5K pricing on the 65" is everything I was hoping for a year ago (when, in retrospect, LG was not ready). I'm expecting sub-$5K pricing before the end of this year and that, coupled with the Vignetting/uniformity issues being resolved and the EF9500 being one of the most future-proof TVs on the market today, will hopefully drive the increase in sales volume that LG needs to achieve in order to keep investing in their WOLED initiative...
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Old 09-13-2015, 05:12 PM
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Yes.

And they can't realistically bank on getting even 50% of any particular segment because, well, marketing, shelf space, spiffs, brand choice, et al. mean that not everyone will reflexively just buy the LG even if it hits price parity in a segment.
It wont just be LG.

Right now, LGD is selling their OLED panels to Panasonic and a variety of Chinese vendors. As OLED's gain share in the high-end, there is little reason to believe that other television vendors wont follow suit. The only real exception is Samsung.

I wouldnt be surprised to see a Sony OLED in 2016 and definitely in 2017.
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Old 09-13-2015, 05:21 PM
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It wont just be LG.

Right now, LGD is selling their OLED panels to Panasonic and a variety of Chinese vendors. As OLED's gain share in the high-end, there is little reason to believe that other television vendors wont follow suit. The only real exception is Samsung.

I wouldnt be surprised to see a Sony OLED in 2016 and definitely in 2017.
Me neither, but if they follow Panasonic's lead, they won't have any meaningful impact on OLED's market share for several years...
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Old 09-13-2015, 05:43 PM
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Me neither, but if they follow Panasonic's lead, they won't have any meaningful impact on OLED's market share for several years...
Panasonic is doing this for branding right now. I know that everybody here would love it if they offered the television for $6000 but it still wouldnt mean anything in terms of sales.

That will change in 2017. Most of the high-end LCD vendors will offer OLED's because they want to keep their high-end share intact.
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Old 09-13-2015, 10:38 PM
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That will change in 2017. Most of the high-end LCD vendors will offer OLED's because they want to keep their high-end share intact.
I think this is correct. But without production well in excess of 2017 levels, there is still a pretty significant cap on the market presence of OLED.

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Old 09-15-2015, 05:28 AM
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LG to reveal rollable 55" OLED TV to CES 2016

http://www.flatpanelshd.com/news.php...&id=1442296649

"Imagine a TV that is paper-thin and so flexible that it can fit inside a tube for transportation. LG intends to showcase a prototype of such a TV this January at CES 2016, company officials said to Korea Times."
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Old 09-15-2015, 09:30 AM
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Old 09-15-2015, 11:49 AM
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LG to reveal rollable 55" OLED TV to CES 2016

"Imagine a TV that is paper-thin and so flexible that it can fit inside a tube for transportation. LG intends to showcase a prototype of such a TV this January at CES 2016, company officials said to Korea Times."
Not a product and an entirely useless implementation as I'm sure many are now imagining, "How am I watching this thing and having it stand up normally?" But....

As an enabling technology, I find this very exciting. Whoever can mass produce a smartphone with a true foldable/extendable screen that goes from 5.5" --> 11" for example will usher in an amazing new era of portable devices that can do nearly everything.

That same logic applied to a laptop/big tablet-like form factor could allow for a 25" display at the desktop or as a dorm-room TV rapidly turning into something half as large for taking to class.

There are still massive industrial design issues not to mention the fact no one can mass produce screens like this, but it's pretty exciting to imagine what's coming next.

One thing that won't be coming: TVs that roll up. There is no use case for having to unfurl the TV just to watch it. There might be some tiny niche market where the aesthetic benefit of rolling the TV when not in use exists though the "canister" seems to destroy most of that. There are huge issues of reliable electrodes and connectors when a design like this is contemplated. And even though 10 people are likely to chime in with why this is great, likely none of you would pay a premium to solve a problem with "storing" your TV that you don't have.

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Originally Posted by Rudy1 View Post
This also seems exciting, however:

"Analysts currently predict that OLED models account for around 1% of TV shipments in the global TV market. It looks like that figure could be set to rise considerably in 2016."

Analysts don't predict that. OLED models will account for <.25% of TV shipments this year. They will not account for even 1% next year. So, no, the 1% figured cannot rise considerably.

Incidentally, if OLED hits 1.25% in 2017, it will be on track.

Please ignore articles that quote "analysts" without any citations or valid data.
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Old 09-15-2015, 12:17 PM
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I don't think there's that much demand for portable devices that transform to devices with larger displays.

Unless they can be made with no change in price.

People are willing to watch longer videos like TV shows or movies on phones. If they wanted a bigger display, there are cheap tables or of course TVs.

And it would make more sense to AirPlay or have pico projectors on phones than to make a rollable screen, which could be more prone to damage.
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Old 09-15-2015, 12:18 PM
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I am a bit skeptical of the date, but Samsung is clearly aiming to bring a foldable smartphone to market much faster than I would have thought possible two years ago. I doubt that this will be the completely flat folding device that we all imagine but it will be interesting to how much progress Samsung has made.

http://www.sammobile.com/2015/09/15/...ch-in-january/

FWIW, I agree on rollable TV's. I cringe every time LGD mentions it.
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Old 09-15-2015, 12:21 PM
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I don't think there's that much demand for portable devices that transform to devices with larger displays.

Unless they can be made with no change in price.
I imagine these will be top-end models like iPhone 6 Plus, Galaxy Note, etc. You'll pay a small premium for a "Transformers" screen.
Quote:
People are willing to watch longer videos like TV shows or movies on phones. If they wanted a bigger display, there are cheap tables or of course TVs.
Yes, but an agile display would be very compelling. I'm not going to carry two devices, but when I sit to watch video doubling the screen would be amazing. Charge me $100 for that, I'm in.
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And it would make more sense to AirPlay or have pico projectors on phones than to make a rollable screen, which could be more prone to damage.
Pico projectors need good display surfaces, AirPlay needs a receiving device and big screen. I want this for a meeting at Starbucks, watching a movie on a plane, playing a game with a friend, etc. And it should be easily damaged given the screen is inherently flexible. Likely the "extender" would be the part most prone to damage but things like the Surface kickstand make me optimistic well designed plastic parts can last as long as the device itself.

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Old 09-15-2015, 12:30 PM
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I imagine the transformer mechanism would be a second display that pops out of the phone and unfurls, not the primary display that expands. Not sure how you'd have a partially rolled up display that would still funtion.

Regardless, I imagine some kind of moving parts that extend to provide some kind of support for the display when it's unrolled, so the edges aren't flapping around.

The moving parts would be prone to damage or maybe the transforming mechanism just breaks over time.

And a larger display, even one that is rolled out, would consume more power so there's that.
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Old 09-15-2015, 12:33 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo
This also seems exciting, however:

"Analysts currently predict that OLED models account for around 1% of TV shipments in the global TV market. It looks like that figure could be set to rise considerably in 2016."

Analysts don't predict that. OLED models will account for <.25% of TV shipments this year. They will not account for even 1% next year. So, no, the 1% figured cannot rise considerably.

Incidentally, if OLED hits 1.25% in 2017, it will be on track.

Please ignore articles that quote "analysts" without any citations or valid data.
I thought the same thing but you beat me to it

If LG can actually ship 500,000 OLED screens in 2015, they will have had a banner year, but that number constitutes less than 0.25% of the total TV market (as you note).

Going flat-out including the 26K sheets per month of M2 and the 8K sheets per month of M1, only making 55" TVs (6 per sheet) and assuming a yield of 80%, LG will not quite be able to manufacture 2M OLED panels in 2016, meaning less than 1% of the TV market in 2016 in the best case (on more realistically 0.75% max if the 65" OLEDs are the least bit successful ).

Any new capacity LG decides to invest in early next year won't come online until mid-2017 best-case, so I agree with you, getting to 1.25% (meaning 2.5M OLEDs) in 2017 would indicate good solid progress...

Measuring OLEDs share as a % of the overall TV market makes less sense in the early going than measuring it as a % of the premium large-screen TV market (55" and above).

I think you've been saying that segment is something like 10% of the overall TV market (so about 20M per year).

Measured to that standard, everything gets multiplied by 10X, meaning at 500,000 this year, OLED will be 2.5% of the premium-large-screen market; at 2M next year, OLED will be 10% of the premium-large-screen market in 2016; and they could be 12.5% of the premium-large-screen market by 2017.

More importantly, assuming any new capacity LG brings online in 2017 will at least double if not triple LGs OLED capability, they could be on-track to ship 4M-6M OLEDs in 2018, meaning 20-30% of the premium-large-screen TV market by 2018. If LG OLED achieved that, that is probably the point of no return .
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Old 09-15-2015, 03:08 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by slacker711 View Post
I am a bit skeptical of the date, but Samsung is clearly aiming to bring a foldable smartphone to market much faster than I would have thought possible two years ago. I doubt that this will be the completely flat folding device that we all imagine but it will be interesting to how much progress Samsung has made.
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FWIW, I agree on rollable TV's. I cringe every time LGD mentions it.
My sources told me thin-film encapsulation and flexible displays should "tape out" this year, which indicates they have been mostly delayed. Samsung arriving next year is on track with what I've been hearing since 2014ish. One thing I would note is that Samsung is very likely going to roll out a small quantity of whatever they sell -- not unlike those pointless curved phones of a year ago or so -- and this isn't really the moment where the stuff hits mainstream either way.

But to make a lot, you have to make a few. If the "Galaxy Note Flex" or whatever is real, I'm excited to get my hands on one.

Quote:
Originally Posted by wco81 View Post
I imagine the transformer mechanism would be a second display that pops out of the phone and unfurls, not the primary display that expands. Not sure how you'd have a partially rolled up display that would still funtion.
You'd use some pixels and not others. I actually expect a clamshell design to ultimately win here, not some nonsensical unfurling -- even though we've seen that in many videos/mockups. If the screen of a Galaxy Edge continued onto the back of the phone and that piece was a hinged panel that could come out 180 degrees and then "snap" into a rigid plane with the front... You'd be there.
Quote:
The moving parts would be prone to damage or maybe the transforming mechanism just breaks over time.
Phones are designed to be replaced every 2 years. And many, many phones see screens or bezels break long before that. If I can come close to design my optimal mechanism in my head, someone with the appropriate design skills should achieve an excellent result.
Quote:
And a larger display, even one that is rolled out, would consume more power so there's that.
Sure, when you use the extra pixels. In a phablet-sized phone, though, I don't see this as a dealbreaker at all. Places like Starbucks have wireless charging built into tables. Other stuff like that is coming.

Quote:
Originally Posted by fafrd View Post
I thought the same thing but you beat me to it
Something about great minds thinking alike!
Quote:
Going flat-out including the 26K sheets per month of M2 and the 8K sheets per month of M1, only making 55" TVs (6 per sheet) and assuming a yield of 80%, LG will not quite be able to manufacture 2M OLED panels in 2016, meaning less than 1% of the TV market in 2016 in the best case (on more realistically 0.75% max if the 65" OLEDs are the least bit successful ).
Right, which any analyst of the display business should know. So anyone who says, "Already at 1%, expanding greatly next year" isn't an analyst of the display business.
Quote:
Any new capacity LG decides to invest in early next year won't come online until mid-2017 best-case, so I agree with you, getting to 1.25% (meaning 2.5M OLEDs) in 2017 would indicate good solid progress...
Yes, and if that comes to pass I'd be increasingly bullish for continued trends because the next year's growth (2018) would be somewhat baked in at that point.
Quote:
Measuring OLEDs share as a % of the overall TV market makes less sense in the early going than measuring it as a % of the premium large-screen TV market (55" and above).

I think you've been saying that segment is something like 10% of the overall TV market (so about 20M per year).
It's more like "all TVs 55" and up" is a 20M per year segment, premium or otherwise.
Quote:
Measured to that standard, everything gets multiplied by 10X, meaning at 500,000 this year, OLED will be 2.5% of the premium-large-screen market; at 2M next year, OLED will be 10% of the premium-large-screen market in 2016; and they could be 12.5% of the premium-large-screen market by 2017.
Because a lot of those 55" and up TVs are not premium (and even if we expand the >=55" segment to 25M, which appears to be an exaggeration), let's say that premium is 2.5-5M. This is actually LG's challenge: 1.5M next year of a segment that might not even twice that in size? Not without (a) more OEMs (b) much lower pricing.
Quote:
More importantly, assuming any new capacity LG brings online in 2017 will at least double if not triple LGs OLED capability, they could be on-track to ship 4M-6M OLEDs in 2018, meaning 20-30% of the premium-large-screen TV market by 2018. If LG OLED achieved that, that is probably the point of no return .
Right, so that's the bull case. Get through the next valley of death and emerge with the ability to make 5M per year. Take 50% share of "premium", which covers maybe 1/2 your production. Take 10-15% of share of "non-premium", mostly from the high end.

If they do that -- which again entails much lower pricing -- I think the trend will continue. If they try and fail to get a huge chunk of premium next year -- bad product mix? bad pricing? -- then it gets much trickier to pull it back together.

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And you may ask yourself am I right? Am I wrong?
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Old 09-15-2015, 03:26 PM
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@rogo : there's an excellent use for a rollable display. How else will they ship my 132" printed OLED to me?
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