OLED TVs: Technology Advancements Thread - Page 432 - AVS Forum | Home Theater Discussions And Reviews
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post #12931 of 12941 Old 02-09-2016, 05:00 AM
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Originally Posted by rogo View Post
1988 was the first LCD TV, it was 14 inches. It was awful but it was a TV. Pretty sure the first active-matrix laptop was also 1988 with the Macintosh Portable, which didn't even have a backlight and was monochrome. None of the stuff that came before.

According to this, 1989 was the first year 10-inch TFT LCD monitors existed: http://www.personal.kent.edu/~mgu/LCD/index.htm

I feel pretty good about arguing 1988 was the first real year of commercialization of LCD as we understand it today. I'm also comfortable with using the 2002 date as the analogue to what we are talking about with PDP and OLED. Referring to passive matrix laptops or worse laptops with some cash-register sized LCD display as comparable confusing things. By that logic, there was a digital camera with an OLED in 2000. And a monochrome plasma in 1983 with a full-color monitor-sized one in 1992.

If we're compared apples to apples, we should just ignore the 14-inch LCD TV milestone entirely and stick with 2002. The only reason I mentioned the 1988 TV was that it technically qualifies as "commercialization of a television." That's also analogous to the milestones I listed for PDP and OLED, even though it was a tiny LCD TV. The early laptop computers are not remotely similar in that regard.
So tvs are the baseline for mature lcd production?

Alright, that lcd was tiny, but what about the 1984 data general one?


Large backlit lcd that also did cga, machine that was comparable to desktops at the time, AND the lcd still works today!

Can you say that this isn't mature enough for mass production?
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post #12932 of 12941 Old 02-09-2016, 07:29 AM
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Originally Posted by Zellio2009 View Post
So tvs are the baseline for mature lcd production?

Alright, that lcd was tiny, but what about the 1984 data general one?



Large backlit lcd that also did cga, machine that was comparable to desktops at the time, AND the lcd still works today!

Can you say that this isn't mature enough for mass production?
AIUI, he was saying that we should set aside the passive matrix stuff because it's confusing. Like the display in that DG.

I so love it with this election when political commentators say "Well, we're clearly in uncharted territory here" because it's so obviously a failed attempt to code "We have no idea what we're doing." A political commentator is like a weatherman that always predicts "50/50 chance of rain."
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post #12933 of 12941 Old 02-09-2016, 03:17 PM
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Originally Posted by Zellio2009 View Post
So tvs are the baseline for mature lcd production?

Alright, that lcd was tiny, but what about the 1984 data general one?

Large backlit lcd that also did cga, machine that was comparable to desktops at the time, AND the lcd still works today!

Can you say that this isn't mature enough for mass production?
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AIUI, he was saying that we should set aside the passive matrix stuff because it's confusing. Like the display in that DG.
Also, it was monochrome.

I think the point should be clear: Nothing goes from "first device" to much of anything commercial is <15 years. It doesn't go from first device to a big TV in <30 years. We're barely at first device with anything that isn't LCD or OLED. We can safely rule out a new kind of TV anytime soon.

Also, read this if you never have: http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00...ie=UTF8&btkr=1

With HDMI cables, if you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working. Also, while anecdote is the "singular of data" your personal anecdote isn't data. When you conflate your anecdote with data and then decide someone else's anecdote isn't data, you earn a place on my ignore list.
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post #12934 of 12941 Old 02-10-2016, 08:41 PM
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Originally Posted by rogo View Post
Also, it was monochrome. .

Also, read this if you never have: http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00...ie=UTF8&btkr=1
2011...isn't that kind of, um, outdated?
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post #12935 of 12941 Old 02-10-2016, 11:36 PM
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2011...isn't that kind of, um, outdated?
The book is from 30 years earlier.

#kidstoday

With HDMI cables, if you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working. Also, while anecdote is the "singular of data" your personal anecdote isn't data. When you conflate your anecdote with data and then decide someone else's anecdote isn't data, you earn a place on my ignore list.
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post #12936 of 12941 Old 02-11-2016, 08:56 AM
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The Digitimes article I linked to earlier ended with this statement: "BOE will not be ready to produce OLED TVs in 2016, but it will deliver sample panels to TV makers in China - and will still consider whether to commit to a Gen-8.5 production fab."

So between Samsung and BOE, I think the other thing we are agreeing on is that by 2020, we will need to see at least 2-3 OLED TV panel manufacturers in the market to be certain OLED TV has passed the point of no return...
Another supplier is talking about orders from outside Korea for large size OLED. I would assume it is BOE. If they make orders in the next quarter or so they could be in the market in 2018.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3883...pt?part=single

Have you received orders or do you anticipate orders yet in the OLED market outside of Korea?

Yes, we did, mainly in the small-to-mid. But in 2016, we expect to see that also in the large displays.
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post #12937 of 12941 Old Today, 01:17 AM
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Forgive the naivety of my question but a thought crossed my mind about LG's 55" screens. Are there 2 factories, one making screens for the EF9500 and another for the 2016 range? I am assuming the 2015 screens are being phased out so could the EF9500 TVs being assembled this year be using the 2016 screens?
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post #12938 of 12941 Old Today, 11:14 AM
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Forgive the naivety of my question but a thought crossed my mind about LG's 55" screens. Are there 2 factories, one making screens for the EF9500 and another for the 2016 range? I am assuming the 2015 screens are being phased out so could the EF9500 TVs being assembled this year be using the 2016 screens?
Not right now from what we know. It seems that the older facility is still making the 1080p models and the newer facility is making everything 4K. That is likely going to change sometime in 2016 but no one has intel suggesting that has happened.

But remember that even within one facility it's possible to make multiple products. It's not like there is a single assembly line that performs every step for every TV.
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With HDMI cables, if you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working. Also, while anecdote is the "singular of data" your personal anecdote isn't data. When you conflate your anecdote with data and then decide someone else's anecdote isn't data, you earn a place on my ignore list.
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post #12939 of 12941 Old Today, 01:14 PM
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Originally Posted by rogo View Post
Not right now from what we know. It seems that the older facility is still making the 1080p models and the newer facility is making everything 4K. That is likely going to change sometime in 2016 but no one has intel suggesting that has happened.

But remember that even within one facility it's possible to make multiple products. It's not like there is a single assembly line that performs every step for every TV.
Thank you, rogo.
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post #12940 of 12941 Old Today, 01:26 PM
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Originally Posted by rogo View Post
Not right now from what we know. It seems that the older facility is still making the 1080p models and the newer facility is making everything 4K. That is likely going to change sometime in 2016 but no one has intel suggesting that has happened.

But remember that even within one facility it's possible to make multiple products. It's not like there is a single assembly line that performs every step for every TV.
It is still unclear to me whether M1 has been converted to full-sheet manufacturing or remains a half-sheet manufacturing facility.

It does seem clear that M1 remains limited to 55" 1080p OLEDs while all 4K WOLED production is coming off of M2 currently.

So the most likely scenario is that once LG decides to cease 1080p WOLED production, M1 will be converted to manufacting of 4K WOLEDs, most likely 55" (and limited to 55" if it remains a half-sheet facility).

That means M1 will probably go down for a period of 3-4 months at some point this year while it is converted to 4K WOLED production, and this down-time is probably one of the factors contributing to LGs reduced 2016 production forecast (1M OLED panels in 2016, down from 1.5M that had been forecasted for 2016 last year).

My guess is that once the C6 and B6 are up and running at full volume later this year, we'll probably see the end of 1080p WOLEDs and some additional capacity for 55C6 and 55B6 soon after. When the dust has cleared, I expect all of M1 to be devoted to 55" WOLED panel production for 55C6 and 55C6, all 65" WOLED demand for 65C6, 65B6, 65E6 and 65G6 to be coming off of M2, with remaining M2 production capacity being used for additional 55" panels (55C6, 55B6). To the extent that there is any actual number of 77G6s sold this year beyond prototype levels, these will also come off of M2.

Early indications are that the 65G6 panel employs the same 'anti-vignetting' (lightened edges) engineering fix as has been seen in December and beyond 65EF9500s, and this suggest that there are not going to be any significant yield improvements before 2017 OLEDs hit production at the end of this year. How much of a yield hit has resulted from the tighter QC and testing criteria LG has been forced to adopt is anyone's guess, but it is almost certainly the biggest contributor to the reduced 2016 production target and 10-15% additional yield loss to levels of 65-70% until the causes of Vignetting have been further addressed at the root level seem like a reasonable guess.

LG has stated that market demand forcing a change in the mix to 40% 65" OLEDs is the reason for the reduced 2016 production forecast, so we have a 2016 production target of 40% of 1M or 400,000 65" WOLEDs (all from M2).

If we take worst-case assumptions for M1, meaning a full 4 months out of production and yields of only 65%, that still means the 9000 sheets-per-month of capacity it has will result in production of 35K OLEDs per month or about 280K 55" OLEDs this year (over 8 months accounting for down time). [compared to production of over 43K 1080p OLEDs per month at 80% yield, or more than 500,000 55" 1080p OLEDs this year if LG thought they had that level of demand for the 55EG9100). So as many as 220K out of the 'lost' 500K of 2016 production could be attributed to M1 conversion.]

400,000 65" OLEDs coming off of M2 will require 11,111 unyilelded sheets a month or 17,000 sheets a month assuming worst-case reduced yields of 65%.

M2 has a capacity of 26,000 sheets a month, so that leaves a remaining 9000 sheets a month that can produce an additional 35,000 55" OLEDs per month at reduced yields of 65%, or 420K this year.

This adds up to:
400,000 65" OLEDs off of M2
420,000 55" OLEDs off of M2
280,000 55" OLEDs off of M1
1.1M OLEDs in 2016.

If LG actually want to produce any meaningful quantity of 77G6s this year at all, that will of course cut into this number. At 50% yield (which is optimistic ), production of 10K 77" WOLEDs will consume a total of 10K sheets off of M2, reducing 2016 production to 1.07M total...

Overall, I take LGs reduced 2016 production forecast as a sign that they have learned the lesson about 'under-commit and over-deliver .
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post #12941 of 12941 Old Today, 09:34 PM
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It is still unclear to me whether M1 has been converted to full-sheet manufacturing or remains a half-sheet manufacturing facility.

It does seem clear that M1 remains limited to 55" 1080p OLEDs while all 4K WOLED production is coming off of M2 currently.

So the most likely scenario is that once LG decides to cease 1080p WOLED production, M1 will be converted to manufacting of 4K WOLEDs, most likely 55" (and limited to 55" if it remains a half-sheet facility).

That means M1 will probably go down for a period of 3-4 months at some point this year while it is converted to 4K WOLED production, and this down-time is probably one of the factors contributing to LGs reduced 2016 production forecast (1M OLED panels in 2016, down from 1.5M that had been forecasted for 2016 last year).

My guess is that once the C6 and B6 are up and running at full volume later this year, we'll probably see the end of 1080p WOLEDs and some additional capacity for 55C6 and 55B6 soon after. When the dust has cleared, I expect all of M1 to be devoted to 55" WOLED panel production for 55C6 and 55C6, all 65" WOLED demand for 65C6, 65B6, 65E6 and 65G6 to be coming off of M2, with remaining M2 production capacity being used for additional 55" panels (55C6, 55B6). To the extent that there is any actual number of 77G6s sold this year beyond prototype levels, these will also come off of M2.

Early indications are that the 65G6 panel employs the same 'anti-vignetting' (lightened edges) engineering fix as has been seen in December and beyond 65EF9500s, and this suggest that there are not going to be any significant yield improvements before 2017 OLEDs hit production at the end of this year. How much of a yield hit has resulted from the tighter QC and testing criteria LG has been forced to adopt is anyone's guess, but it is almost certainly the biggest contributor to the reduced 2016 production target and 10-15% additional yield loss to levels of 65-70% until the causes of Vignetting have been further addressed at the root level seem like a reasonable guess.

LG has stated that market demand forcing a change in the mix to 40% 65" OLEDs is the reason for the reduced 2016 production forecast, so we have a 2016 production target of 40% of 1M or 400,000 65" WOLEDs (all from M2).

If we take worst-case assumptions for M1, meaning a full 4 months out of production and yields of only 65%, that still means the 9000 sheets-per-month of capacity it has will result in production of 35K OLEDs per month or about 280K 55" OLEDs this year (over 8 months accounting for down time). [compared to production of over 43K 1080p OLEDs per month at 80% yield, or more than 500,000 55" 1080p OLEDs this year if LG thought they had that level of demand for the 55EG9100). So as many as 220K out of the 'lost' 500K of 2016 production could be attributed to M1 conversion.]

400,000 65" OLEDs coming off of M2 will require 11,111 unyilelded sheets a month or 17,000 sheets a month assuming worst-case reduced yields of 65%.

M2 has a capacity of 26,000 sheets a month, so that leaves a remaining 9000 sheets a month that can produce an additional 35,000 55" OLEDs per month at reduced yields of 65%, or 420K this year.

This adds up to:
400,000 65" OLEDs off of M2
420,000 55" OLEDs off of M2
280,000 55" OLEDs off of M1
1.1M OLEDs in 2016.

If LG actually want to produce any meaningful quantity of 77G6s this year at all, that will of course cut into this number. At 50% yield (which is optimistic ), production of 10K 77" WOLEDs will consume a total of 10K sheets off of M2, reducing 2016 production to 1.07M total...

Overall, I take LGs reduced 2016 production forecast as a sign that they have learned the lesson about 'under-commit and over-deliver .

That's all fine and dandy for LG products but what about their supply of WOLED panels to their partners like Skyworth and Panasonic?

Will these guys be left out in the cold?
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