Originally Posted by slacker711
My guess is that Apple has been developing both LCD and OLED versions of both sizes and that is throwing off the supply chain rumors. The ability of Samsung to ramp up their new OLED capacity quickly will determine which course they follow. Right now, I think the likeliest scenario is that the Plus gets an OLED next year but there is still a possibility they make a complete move to OLED if Samsung moves quickly enough. I would be surprised if they launch two LCD models and an extra OLED model next fall.
I tend to think this is right, too. They also seem to have Sharp/JDI/LG all trying to get capacity ramped up for OLED, but none of that seems real for 2017.
The same is true for the Z9D. LCD's continue to push the envelope in terms of performance but it comes with quite a penalty in terms of cost.
For Sony's TV, yes, For Apple's LCDs? I doubt it.
Once Apple moves to OLED's, there really wont be much left in terms of LTPS LCD R&D. We are long way from that though in televisions. Samsung's decision to pursue quantum dots is going to slow the progress of OLED's.
Yep, likely giving the Chinese time to catch up and remove Samsung from the TV market down the road, the way Samsung pushed most others out.
How are you defining laptops?
If it is Windows 10/Mac OS machines only, then I agree. OTOH, from a display market perspective, tablets with keyboards and chromebooks are going to still going to require quite a bit of surface area (though at lower ASP's). I assume you arent projecting a future where kids are writing their papers on smartphones.
So yes, I meant Win 10/MacOS on "laptops". I agree the other stuff isn't going away, but I think people continue to overstate the importance of Chromebooks. As of last year, they'd made it a "breathtaking" 3% of laptop sales. There is scant evidence they are crossing over into any new niches. They are nearly all cheap machines. No OLED volume exists there anytime soon, if ever.
Higher-end tablets (Samsung, Apple) will certainly see OLED and certainly can justify the higher BOM (n.b. I know Samsung already sells OLED tablets). This will, ironically, lead to the "laptop replacement" technology being almost entirely OLED while the laptop itself withers away having barely transitioned.
I see this as an OLED opportunity as tablets using nearly 4x the glass of smartphones. I don't see gamers being excited about it, however.
Originally Posted by irkuck
Which makes the case of switching to OLED less important on the priority list for the iPhone 8. That will happen only if the OLED price is just little higher than the high-end LCD. I don't know it that may happen next year. OLED has found its clear niches on the extreme ends: ultrasmall displays for wearables and high-end TVs.
I suspect Apple will end up paying less per screen for OLED than it pays for its current LCDs. There are better scale economies to be had and OLED keeps moving down the learning curve.
Originally Posted by ynotgoal
According to NPD, a global market research company, for 65 inch TVs above $3,000, OLED TVs now have almost a 50% market share, and for 55 inch TVs above $2,000, OLED TVs now have more than a 60% market share.
I wonder if this isn't incredibly damning for just how small those markets are -- a drum I've beaten here for years.
If LG has about half the markets for $2000+ TVs (and really that's a fair result from those numbers) with just 1 million units this year (will it be that many?). That means the entire high end TV market is still below 1% of all TV sales. For all the success LG has achieved thus far, that's a teardrop in the Pacific. It certainly appears the the 55-inch model needs to get to $1000 for LG to achieve its volume goals for the 2018 10G fab and that the 65 needs to get to $2000.
Even at those numbers, you are still looking at LCD with 85% of the market (or more).
It is unquestionably the Best Performing TV that we have ever tested or watched… In terms of picture quality the LG OLED TV is Visually Indistinguishable from Perfect. Even in terms of the exacting and precise Lab Measurements it is close to ideal, and it breaks many TV Display Performance Records.
This was before LG's price cuts this week.
And that's the silver living. For years, we accepted that a high-end 65-inch was $3000 and up. You could get a decent one for $1000 less from Panasonic or Samsung at times.
Looking ahead, a high-end 65-inch will be $2000 or less. It will be better than the $3000 set was from 2010-2014. In every way, I'd argue (yes, you motion-handling nitpickers would disagree perhaps).
Anyone want to bet on when the 65-inch OLED is $1000? Likely before 2025.