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post #14041 of 14069 Old 07-21-2017, 06:07 PM
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Originally Posted by ynotgoal View Post
Thanks for posting the link. The specs for Cynora's blue TADF have a long way to go to meet the color and lifetime requirements for a commercial display so for now any talk of inclusion in a commercial TV is just speculation by a company looking to raise funds and make an IPO. Universal Display had phosphorescent OLEDs with these specs 3 years ago and Kyulux has TADF emitters with as good or better specs.

Regarding top emission, LG ordered pilot equipment for a test for the P10 facility. They are supposed to be able to make a decision on whether they can use top emission for P10 by the end of the year. So the first possibility of that being applied to a commercial LG TV is end of 2019, probably for a 2020 model.

Top emission would be a big deal. It would probably mean twice the amount of light output per input voltage which allows for several possibilities. In the article they talk about extending the life of the materials likely by reducing the voltage and thus lower power consumption. That approach might make it possible for a phosphorescent or a better TADF blue than is available now. Or they could just make the displays brighter. Top emission is also likely required for 8K resolution. So if the top emission pilot test works the 2020 models will be a really significant upgrade. There will be upgrades for 2018 but I have no idea what they will be.

Remember to use google translate...
http://www.kinews.net/news/articleVi...l?idxno=109092
Among them possibly a return of 3D (if it survives that long, I know, a loooong shot ).

In any case, it seems as though top-emission is LGs ace-in-the-hole for the brightness wars with Samsung QLED...

For 2018, there were some rumored composition changes for wider color gamut and/or increased brightness - we'll see if any of that materializes in a few months, but it is starting to look like LG is going to be pretty conservative, riding the 8.5G manufacturing processes they have established, until 10.5G in P10 is ready for production in a few years...

Far a 65" display at least, I would give up 8K for 4K supporting 3D in a heartbeat .
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post #14042 of 14069 Old 07-21-2017, 06:14 PM
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Is 3D even part of the UHD Blu Ray spec?

I thought it was dropped?
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post #14043 of 14069 Old 07-21-2017, 08:18 PM
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Originally Posted by ynotgoal View Post
Thanks for posting the link. The specs for Cynora's blue TADF have a long way to go to meet the color and lifetime requirements for a commercial display so for now any talk of inclusion in a commercial TV is just speculation by a company looking to raise funds and make an IPO. Universal Display had phosphorescent OLEDs with these specs 3 years ago and Kyulux has TADF emitters with as good or better specs.

Regarding top emission, LG ordered pilot equipment for a test for the P10 facility. They are supposed to be able to make a decision on whether they can use top emission for P10 by the end of the year. So the first possibility of that being applied to a commercial LG TV is end of 2019, probably for a 2020 model.

Top emission would be a big deal. It would probably mean twice the amount of light output per input voltage which allows for several possibilities. In the article they talk about extending the life of the materials likely by reducing the voltage and thus lower power consumption. That approach might make it possible for a phosphorescent or a better TADF blue than is available now. Or they could just make the displays brighter. Top emission is also likely required for 8K resolution. So if the top emission pilot test works the 2020 models will be a really significant upgrade. There will be upgrades for 2018 but I have no idea what they will be.

Remember to use google translate...
http://www.kinews.net/news/articleVi...l?idxno=109092
Finally managed to get Google translate working - you're right, they seem to be primarily concerned that the bottom-emitting technology of today will be incapable of delivering 8K tomorrow (2019) so they want to bring up top-emittibg technology by then.

And it sounds as though they intend to use through-OLED vias to get there (meaty conductors on TFT layer punching through WOLED layer electrically to energize pooly-conducting (thin) cathode conductor on glass.

I love how the article uses images of RGB OLED even though LG is based on WOLED...

Sounds as though we're in line for small incremental improvements until 2020...
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post #14044 of 14069 Old 07-21-2017, 08:27 PM
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Originally Posted by fafrd View Post
Among them possibly a return of 3D (if it survives that long, I know, a loooong shot ).

In any case, it seems as though top-emission is LGs ace-in-the-hole for the brightness wars with Samsung QLED...

For 2018, there were some rumored composition changes for wider color gamut and/or increased brightness - we'll see if any of that materializes in a few months, but it is starting to look like LG is going to be pretty conservative, riding the 8.5G manufacturing processes they have established, until 10.5G in P10 is ready for production in a few years...

Far a 65" display at least, I would give up 8K for 4K supporting 3D in a heartbeat .
Just found this thread from Silicon Investor (appears you were a contributor ) suggesting that top emmission may be incompatible with 3D polorizers: http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readm...msgid=30524539
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post #14045 of 14069 Old 07-22-2017, 02:26 AM
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3D is not coming back.

No UHD content is being produced in 3D for consumers.

As for LG and OLED, I've long been skeptical of blue breakthroughs for the reasons ynotgoal outlined. We will know when it changes because someone will announce a set of performance characteristics that are inline with TV lifespans: tens of thousands of hours.

The top-emission stuff is fascinating because it's been clearly a roadmap issue for sometime. The putative Sony/Panasonic pseudo-joint venture was definitely headed that way. It is a huge deal and would be great to see by 2019. It will be seen by 2021-22 with some sort of certainty.

LG seems to have no intent at all to move away from WOLED. Clearly P10 is going to represent a half-decade or more investment in "making more OLEDs the way we do now". While things like bottom emission vs. top are radical changes, they are less radical than "we're going to stop vapor depositing the OLED material in a stack and instead start patterning it all".

I admit I have no real take on 8K except the belief that someday we will buy 8K. It seems unlikely to be anytime soon. It seems unlikely to offer anything discernible.

I'm much more interested in LG getting better at fill factor vs. today's abysmal pixel-to-panel ratio. Do we see top emission as part of that?
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post #14046 of 14069 Old 07-22-2017, 10:17 AM
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Originally Posted by fafrd View Post
top emmission may be incompatible with 3D polorizers
A polarizer probably wouldn't be needed with top emission. As others have said 3D is not coming back.

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Originally Posted by rogo View Post
I'm much more interested in LG getting better at fill factor vs. today's abysmal pixel-to-panel ratio. Do we see top emission as part of that?
Yes, definitely.
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post #14047 of 14069 Old 07-22-2017, 08:37 PM
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Does anyone have any idea if LG will make a RADICAL decision to release a 43" oled tv in 2018? They would not need to use any untested technology, just go smaller.

Retail costs for a 55" 4k oled is around 2k, 2.5k for the 2017 versions. So would it be such a stretch to see a 43" 4k oled tv released next year for around 1000 dollars?

Too low?


I keep asking because I have graduated from the small monitor club, and basically use a 43" sony 4k tv to tide me over while I am waiting for oled to get cheaper and smaller. At 43 inches, not ONLY will an lg oled be able to better break into the small tv console gaming market for less cost sensitive families and their spoiled brat kids.. the near HOLY GRAIL of computer monitors will finally be upon us.


4k @ 43" is similar ppi to a 1440p 27" monitor, it's a GREAT size for having more screen real estate, more immersive gaming, full vision video like youtube for desktop distance viewing... it is literally the perfect size, but so far, lg is not even thinking about this size and market.

At a thousand dollars, lg would OWN the high end monitor market for everyone that did not want to go that large. And if they added the following enhancements...

-sub 20ms input lag for gaming
-hdmi 2.1 / displayport 1.4x (whatever this next version is going to be called https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DisplayPort#Next_version that increases bandwidth to match thunderbolt 3 - that will probably give enough headroom for 120Hz with HDR)
-120Hz variable refresh display to enhance desktop and console gaming (next xbox)


I was in best buy today, and walked past the oleds and stopped... the display is so beautiful, and that beauty is being completely denied for pc gaming unless someone strapped a too large 55" display to a tower, and even then, we would be nice to have higher refresh rates and variable refresh rates and connectors that had enough bandwidth to drive that with no problems and lower input lag... and we can have all that !!!!!! We can if only LG would THINK about trying to cater to that BLACK HOLE in the market. I just spent 700 dollars on this sony tv last year, and would HAPPILY spend another thousand next year if LG let me. Will they let me? And if not, when?

Does anyone know anyone from lg? Seriously, can someone talk to them and ask them, BEG them, PLEAD with them to look at this segment?
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post #14048 of 14069 Old 07-23-2017, 12:01 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ynotgoal View Post
Thanks for posting the link. The specs for Cynora's blue TADF have a long way to go to meet the color and lifetime requirements for a commercial display so for now any talk of inclusion in a commercial TV is just speculation by a company looking to raise funds and make an IPO. Universal Display had phosphorescent OLEDs with these specs 3 years ago and Kyulux has TADF emitters with as good or better specs.

Regarding top emission, LG ordered pilot equipment for a test for the P10 facility. They are supposed to be able to make a decision on whether they can use top emission for P10 by the end of the year. So the first possibility of that being applied to a commercial LG TV is end of 2019, probably for a 2020 model.

Top emission would be a big deal. It would probably mean twice the amount of light output per input voltage which allows for several possibilities. In the article they talk about extending the life of the materials likely by reducing the voltage and thus lower power consumption. That approach might make it possible for a phosphorescent or a better TADF blue than is available now. Or they could just make the displays brighter. Top emission is also likely required for 8K resolution. So if the top emission pilot test works the 2020 models will be a really significant upgrade. There will be upgrades for 2018 but I have no idea what they will be.

Remember to use google translate...
http://www.kinews.net/news/articleVi...l?idxno=109092
Thinking over this some more, it's a pretty major change to the manufacturing process to achieve top-emission and it's going to require punching-through the WOLED layer (which is not required with bottom-emission).

Do we have any idea how LG is planning to get a conducting layer through the WOLED layers? Can the WOLED layers be easily etched?

Up to now, one of the big advantages LG's WOLED architecture has had for large-screen format has been the avoidance of any patterning of the OLED layers. Even though patterning for a conducting layer through a WOLED layer should be easier than patterning of OLED layers themselves (ie: for RGB OLED), it's still a big change in process.

An further insight as to how LG plans to approach this and what risks may be involved would be interesting...
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post #14049 of 14069 Old 07-23-2017, 12:21 PM
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A polarizer probably wouldn't be needed with top emission. As others have said 3D is not coming back.
Was a pllarizer required for bottom-emission?

At any rate, while I accept that 3D will never be coming back in the way it was originally envisioned, as long as new 3D Blurays are being issued it is premature to call the format dead...

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Yes, definitely.
On fill-factor, I'm not sure I understand.

I believe what Rogo is most unhappy with is the large inter-subpixel gaps in current WOLED technology, and I believe these are primarily driven by the need to prevent subpixel light bleed.

Going from bottom to top emission may reduce the amound of light dispersion somewhat and so may allow for sone reduction of those inter-subpixel gaps, but I believe gaps of some size will still be needed.

To be honest, while I also objected to the noticable inter-pixel gaps on the 1080p WOLEDs (EC9300), since the move to 4K resolution, they are a non-issue to me (invisible, at least on a 65" screen).

If I understand correctly, the primary benefit to top-emission is transmittance through a thin transparant cathode later rather than transmittance through a multi-later transpaent-as-possible TFT layer. The % of light that makes it through the thin transparent cathode layer should be greater than the % that makes it through the multi-layer TFT layer (so either brightness is increased or power consumption can be decreased).

There may also be some improvement to the minor remaining off-axis color-shift of WOLED.
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post #14050 of 14069 Old 07-24-2017, 12:33 AM
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[quote=Sammael;54468169]Does anyone have any idea if LG will make a RADICAL decision to release a 43" oled tv in 2018? They would not need to use any untested technology, just go smaller.

Retail costs for a 55" 4k oled is around 2k, 2.5k for the 2017 versions. So would it be such a stretch to see a 43" 4k oled tv released next year for around 1000 dollars?

Too low?......

.......

Maybe this is EXTREME! Like I wrote in a previous post it would be enough to have on market a 49-50" OLED which is as big as old 43" plasma! I think lots of plasma enthusiasts would be more than happy to make the switch!
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post #14051 of 14069 Old 07-24-2017, 09:33 AM
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At any rate, while I accept that 3D will never be coming back in the way it was originally envisioned, as long as new 3D Blurays are being issued it is premature to call the format dead...
Accept that everything is being "product-ized" around 4K. 3D BluRay is not 4K.

Accept also that even BluRay player penetration is falling at this point through "decommissioning" of BluRay players with no replacements.

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To be honest, while I also objected to the noticable inter-pixel gaps on the 1080p WOLEDs (EC9300), since the move to 4K resolution, they are a non-issue to me (invisible, at least on a 65" screen).

...


If I understand correctly, the primary benefit to top-emission is transmittance through a thin transparant cathode later rather than transmittance through a multi-later transpaent-as-possible TFT layer. The % of light that makes it through the thin transparent cathode layer should be greater than the % that makes it through the multi-layer TFT layer (so either brightness is increased or power consumption can be decreased).

There may also be some improvement to the minor remaining off-axis color-shift of WOLED.
The whole problem with the low fill factor isn't the visible grid (I'm not of those people, seeing a grid no human has the visual perception to perceive). The whole problem is everywhere there isn't pixel, there's no light. The OLED would be much brighter, and with higher dynamic range, if you could emit over a greater portion of the surface. No, power isn't free (though close enough here) and no this isn't an order of magnitude difference, but the more area we're looking at that "lights up" the better.

And so yes, if top emission delivers on the promise of higher brightness or lower power consumption and could offer us smaller interpixel spacing which could allow more brightness or lower power consumption -- we have multiple vectors to either improve lifetime (drive things less hard) or improve light output.

That's why it's important and interesting to discuss these things somewhat in tandem. (Again, I asked a question about fill factor as I'm not an expert in whether top emission allows it to be improved... just noting we are all heading in the same direction about improvements.)

PS -- While I believe that top emission is a big deal generally, too, I wouldn't urge anyone to wait for an innovation that may/may not come with the 2020 models. That's so far away, could easily be delayed or scrapped, etc. etc. Would you wait till 2022 for an innovation? Not likely. Of course, if you have a great TV right now that might serve you till 2022 and keep you happy, fine, you can muse about when in the future to make a change.

There's a saying about "everything in moderation". If only it was applied to well, you know...
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post #14052 of 14069 Old 07-25-2017, 05:57 AM
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In addition to the earning results, LGD detailed its investment path for OLEDs, as was decided in a recent board meeting. First of all, LGD decided to build a 10.5-Gen (2940x3370 mm) OLED line in its upcoming P10 fab in Paju. LGD will make an up-front investment of KRW2.8 trillion ($2.5 billion USD). The whole fab will require more investments but LGD says it is taking a prudent approach - it will only begin mass production of OLED TVs after stabilizing the technology for these extra large size substrates.
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In addition to these investments, LGD decided to establish a 8.5-Gen (2200x2500) OLED line in Guangzhou, China, to make OLED TV panels. This fab will be a joint-venture with a local company (that LGD did not disclose) and LGD will hold a 70% share. The total cost for this fab will be KRW2.6 trillion ($2.3 billion USD). LGD wants to be closer to the Chinese market, which is the largest TV market in the world - and this is the first time a Korean company plans to produce OLEDs outside of Korea.
https://www.oled-info.com/lgd-announ...line-guangzhou
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post #14053 of 14069 Old 07-25-2017, 09:33 AM
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What happened to 9.5-gen?
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post #14054 of 14069 Old 07-26-2017, 02:34 AM
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As noted by expert site, the 10.5-Gen line will make possíble significant expansion of OLED into the 80"-100" display segment and even beyond.
How long the process from the investment decision to mass manufacturing takes?

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post #14055 of 14069 Old 07-27-2017, 04:27 AM
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Some points of interest from LG Display earnings. Some of the following is from various articles in Korean.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/409...pt?part=single

- LGD is going to add 60k of Gen 8.5 OLED capacity in China. This capacity will come on-line in the first half of 2019.

- They had 34k of Gen 8.5 capacity at the beginning of this year and are adding another 26k right now. There is no additional capacity coming on-line in 2018. If demand comes in ahead of supply they will consider using multi-modal glass (cut 3 65" and 2" 55" substrates from one sheet).

- They are going to be careful to prove out their Gen 10.5 P10 fab ahead of OLED mass production. It sounds like they will work on backplane uniformity and yields beginning in 2019 before beginning OLED mass production in 2020. They will prove out the production using LCD's. However, they were adamant that this was simply to prove out production and that any sales will simply be opportunistic. The first phase of Gen 10.5 fab is 30k substrates.

- They expect 10% of their revenue to be OLED in 2017 shifting to 40% in 2020.

- Total OLED TV volume is expected to be 2.5 million in 2018 and over 6 million in 2020.

FWIW, between mobile OLED and OLED TV's, they are increasing their capex pace by about 2/3's. They said they might need debt to finance the various projects. This is the simple issue with LGD being the only OLED TV supplier. They simply arent big enough to fund a continuous doubling of capacity each year.
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post #14056 of 14069 Old 07-27-2017, 11:16 AM
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Seems probable they can raise $1-4B just from Apple (debt, equity, whatever). That would be dedicated to mobile sizes in theory, but it's like the old guns and butter argument: it's money they won't need from elsewhere.

It's really noteworthy how much the TV forecasts have slowed, basically the timetables have shifted out and to the right by what now amounts to 5+ years since the original "launch" but is still 2-3 years since the more general promise of continuation with OLED TVs / expansion / etc.

Consider that 6 million TVs (with LG as the sole supplier more or less) means that <3% of TV sales globally will be OLED in 2020. The market share for OLED isn't even remotely threatening where PDP / plasma was in its heyday when that segment closed in on 10%. It seems likely OLED won't hit 10% of TV sales until the middle of next decade.

It's fair to note OLED has some remarkable achievements nevertheless.

1) It will have a ~90% share of the high end smartphone market by this time next year. It will have a non-zero presence in the sub $200 smartphone market, but will be dominated by LCD there through the end of the decade.

2) It will have a ~50% of the high-end TV market by 2020-21 even with a paltry 3% of the total market. I can sort of "prove" this mathematically by simply defining "high end" at LG's lowest price point for OLED TVs. But to give you a sense of what I mean, there are probably on the order of 5% of global TV sales at $1500 or above, less than 15M. LG should own half that segment with just its OLEDs by 2020. (Incidentally, if I'm wrong and that segment is larger -- color me skeptical, but I don't have recent data to check -- LG will still dominate >$2000 even on those putative 6M sold.

To wrap up this summary, OLED has mostly come less far than nearly every optimistic projection made about it. It has also come much farther than it would have without the strong investments by Samsung (mobile) and LG (TV).

[Personal note: I'm gonna own the OLED iPhone. I have an Android phone with an OLED I use as an "iPod Touch" and owned an old early OLED HTC phone so it won't be my first OLED phone, but I'm excited. I'm also going to continue with buying new TVs every 6 years in 2018 and get a paper-thin LG to mount on my new wall at my new place. It will replace my 2012 plasma, which replaced my 2006 plasma, which replaced my 2000 LCD.]
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post #14057 of 14069 Old 07-27-2017, 11:27 AM
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Some points of interest from LG Display earnings. Some of the following is from various articles in Korean.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/409...pt?part=single

- LGD is going to add 60k of Gen 8.5 OLED capacity in China. This capacity will come on-line in the first half of 2019.

- They had 34k of Gen 8.5 capacity at the beginning of this year and are adding another 26k right now. There is no additional capacity coming on-line in 2018. If demand comes in ahead of supply they will consider using multi-modal glass (cut 3 65" and 2" 55" substrates from one sheet).

- They are going to be careful to prove out their Gen 10.5 P10 fab ahead of OLED mass production. It sounds like they will work on backplane uniformity and yields beginning in 2019 before beginning OLED mass production in 2020. They will prove out the production using LCD's. However, they were adamant that this was simply to prove out production and that any sales will simply be opportunistic. The first phase of Gen 10.5 fab is 30k substrates.

- They expect 10% of their revenue to be OLED in 2017 shifting to 40% in 2020.

- Total OLED TV volume is expected to be 2.5 million in 2018 and over 6 million in 2020.

FWIW, between mobile OLED and OLED TV's, they are increasing their capex pace by about 2/3's. They said they might need debt to finance the various projects. This is the simple issue with LGD being the only OLED TV supplier. They simply arent big enough to fund a continuous doubling of capacity each year.
If we assume equal volumes of 55" and 65" panels produced, 60K sheets per month equates to 96K of each panel size (assuming 80% yield). With MMG, they can increase that to 123K of each panel size, so a 28% increase.

And 2018 looks like a ~2.3M year without MMG Technology and as much as a ~2.6Mu year if they get it into production by mid-year.

I also found these two tidbits interesting:

"So from now on to about 15 to 18 months going forward, we will be placing equipment orders and setting up the equipment. After which, for around 6 to 12 months, we will need time for testing."

Meaning 21-30 months before we see any OLED TV production out of P10 (meaning May 2019 - February 2020).

And: "As you know, as we operated 8.5 generation OLED, we had to go through significant amount of trial and errors. There were a lot of challenges, including issues relating to oxide uniformity and also stabilizing the deposition process for OLED. So there were many issues that we had to deal with and which we overcame. Thanks to which, we were able to attain a stable mass production. And as you would recall, at the very onset for 8.5 generation, we began with a half-cut glass. But after going through 3 years of different trial and errors, we were able to increase and enhance even the mass production yield for the mother glass. And also, on top of that, in terms of the oxide uniformity issue for 8.5 gen, we had to haggle with this issue for around 4 to 5 years. So if you compare this to 10.5 generation, the mother glass size is actually 2x bigger. Hence, it truly requires an extensive experience in order to bring about a stable mass production for this generation of product. So what we are saying is that we are being very preemptive and making such advanced preparations for a successful mass production of 10.5G in the future."

Trying to learn from their experience to cut the period of 'haggling' down to 2-3 years from 4-5 years sounds like a prudent plan .
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post #14058 of 14069 Old 07-27-2017, 12:10 PM
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Originally Posted by rogo View Post
Seems probable they can raise $1-4B just from Apple (debt, equity, whatever). That would be dedicated to mobile sizes in theory, but it's like the old guns and butter argument: it's money they won't need from elsewhere.

It's really noteworthy how much the TV forecasts have slowed, basically the timetables have shifted out and to the right by what now amounts to 5+ years since the original "launch" but is still 2-3 years since the more general promise of continuation with OLED TVs / expansion / etc.

Consider that 6 million TVs (with LG as the sole supplier more or less) means that <3% of TV sales globally will be OLED in 2020. [b]The market share for OLED isn't even remotely threatening where PDP / plasma was in its heyday when that segment closed in on 10%. [/BIt seems likely OLED won't hit 10% of TV sales until the middle of next decade.
But that was 10% taken from Prehistoric CRT, right? Before the LCD juggernaught can on the scene and drove CRT out of town (followed by PDP ).

OLED-versus-LED/LCD is less of a transformational shift that the move to flat-screen from tube TV (conincident with the move to dgital from analog, to HD from 480i, to DVD from VHS...).

If OLED can dominate the premium TV segment, that feels like exactly the right place to be for the next decade or so...

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It's fair to note OLED has some remarkable achievements nevertheless.

1) It will have a ~90% share of the high end smartphone market by this time next year. It will have a non-zero presence in the sub $200 smartphone market, but will be dominated by LCD there through the end of the decade.

2) It will have a ~50% of the high-end TV market by 2020-21 even with a paltry 3% of the total market. I can sort of "prove" this mathematically by simply defining "high end" at LG's lowest price point for OLED TVs. But to give you a sense of what I mean, there are probably on the order of 5% of global TV sales at $1500 or above, less than 15M. LG should own half that segment with just its OLEDs by 2020. (Incidentally, if I'm wrong and that segment is larger -- color me skeptical, but I don't have recent data to check -- LG will still dominate >$2000 even on those putative 6M sold.
Right, so let's take that 5% / 10-15M $1500+ segment as the market WOLED TV should focus on until it needs further segments for growth. Adding up existing 60,000 sheet capacity, new 60,000 sheet China capacity, and initial 30,000 2Xsubstrate/month capacity from P10, LG will still only be selling about half of this total segement by 2021/2022 (~7.5Mu).

My point is that just with 55" and 65" (and eventually 75") WOLED TVs, LG has enough to keep themselves busy (and profitable) on the premium segment for quite a while.

The first signal that they are starting to think about breaking out into the broader market will be the introduction of smaller screen sizes.

4x2 production of 49" screens is very efficient on 8.5G but the pixels would be smaller than anything LG has produced in WOLED, so the 55" FHD WOLED LG just introduced may be a first gentle probe to understand whether there is demand for FHD at smaller screen sizes. (But on the other hand, pixel size for a 98" 8K WOLED is identical those of a 4K 38" WOLED ).


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To wrap up this summary, OLED has mostly come less far than nearly every optimistic projection made about it. It has also come much farther than it would have without the strong investments by Samsung (mobile) and LG (TV).
I got involved late in the game, so I've probably missed many of those early forecasts. Obviously a WOLED TV market supported by only a single manufacturer is going to grow less quickly than one supported by two, so forecasts from the Samsung & LG OLED TV ERA were overly optimistic the moment Samsung pulled out.

LG has a prudent production plan that increases capacity by 1/3 to 1/2 per year for the next 4-5 years and they will be in a much stronger posituon once that plan has been executed.

And I'm holding out hope that LG decides to master the switch to top-emission before P10 is in production (partly because I don't think I can wait until 2021 to buy my next WOLED TV ).
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post #14059 of 14069 Old 07-27-2017, 01:28 PM
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https://www.oled-info.com/dscc-oled-...6-billion-2021

"OLED TV shipments will reach 6.5 million in 2021 (rising at a CAGR of 49% from 2016 to 2021)."

Pretty mch in line with LG's current prodction plans (which can lead one to ask, which came first, the chicken or the egg? ).
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post #14060 of 14069 Old 07-27-2017, 02:08 PM
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Sounds like 2020 would be a good year for current owners to consider buying again (not me, I will probably be buried with this 3D-capable 77").
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post #14061 of 14069 Old 07-27-2017, 02:15 PM
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What happened to all the Chinese manufacturers jumping in?
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post #14062 of 14069 Old 07-27-2017, 02:21 PM
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In the 'two-steps-forward/one-step-back' department, the reports of burn-in on WOLED are starting to raise concern.

The poll I started indicates that about 10% of WOLED owners are developing burn-in: WOLED burn-in poll

A new member just posted about his parents developing burn-in with use that sounds pretty average/typical for non-videophiles: OLED screen burn: with photos

We only have a total of 8 WOLEDs with burn-in reported so far, so this should not be blown out of proportion, but it's looking increasingly likely that current-generation WOLED technology may not be suited for continuous watching of TV channels with constant logos/banners present (at least if they are yellow, orange, or red) and possibly also heavy gaming with constant HUDs (at least in yellow, orange, or red).

For any videophile willing to put up with the care-and-feeding requirements of plasma (and even for anyone primarily watching high-quality streaming and Bluray content), this is a non-issue, but for average consumers who want to watch as much as they want of whatever they want, without a care in the world, it's looking increasingly likely that LG still has some progress to make (possibly tied to their development of top-emission ).
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post #14063 of 14069 Old 07-27-2017, 02:29 PM
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Yeah but people are suppose to upgrade every couple of years, so no biggie.
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On the 65" G6 (and the EF9500) before it, football games were watched quite extensively (i.e. all day) during said football season(s). Fortunately, as I recall, the color scheme for the static graphics wasn't any hue of red. That coupled with the commercial breaks may have saved me from any trouble, if there is an inherent flaw across all 2016 models. I don't intend to test those waters given what I paid.
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post #14065 of 14069 Old 07-27-2017, 02:38 PM
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Originally Posted by wco81 View Post
Yeah but people are suppose to upgrade every couple of years, so no biggie.
'You get one chance to make a first impression' and given the history plasma had in this department, if LG WOLEDs truly show signs of burn-in from non-abusive use, Samsung is going to ride that Achilles-heel for all it is worth...

Vignette was a very visible issue that impacted picture quality but who's 'fix' was readily apparent to consumers so LG recovered nicely once they introduced improved panels.

If WOLED develops a reputation of suffering from burn-in like plasma, that would be a much more serious weakness to recover from and even after LG has introduced changes to address the problem, the market could take years to recover (possibly even never).
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post #14066 of 14069 Old 07-27-2017, 02:48 PM
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Originally Posted by video_analysis View Post
On the 65" G6 (and the EF9500) before it, football games were watched quite extensively (i.e. all day) during said football season(s). Fortunately, as I recall, the color scheme for the static graphics wasn't any hue of red. That coupled with the commercial breaks may have saved me from any trouble, if there is an inherent flaw across all 2016 models. I don't intend to test those waters given what I paid.
I'm not seeing anything either, and my kids game for hours on end day-after-day, especially during the summer.

The reports that are most consistent (and concerning) involve repeated watching of the same TV channel day-after-day (2-4 hours per day 7 days a week). The post I linked to a few posts back mentioned that his parents viewing habits even caused IR on a Vizio LED/LCD, so this is really long-term repeated viewing of the same channels with yellow/orange/red static components (logos, banners). Even ''all-dy' throughout football season' is far less hours per month/year (and also probably less static).

But the fact that 8 WOLEDs owned by AVSers (or their parents ) have signs of burn-in out of 72 total (so far) shoud be of concern to any WOLED-TV fan...
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post #14067 of 14069 Old 07-27-2017, 02:53 PM
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Originally Posted by fafrd View Post
In the 'two-steps-forward/one-step-back' department, the reports of burn-in on WOLED are starting to raise concern.
Assuming burn-in is a real phenomenon, it would be interesting to know if burn-in was less likely after some break-in period.
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post #14068 of 14069 Old 07-27-2017, 03:08 PM
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Originally Posted by JasonHa View Post
Assuming burn-in is a real phenomenon, it would be interesting to know if burn-in was less likely after some break-in period.
The thread I linked to above is dedicated to tha subject, so I suggest we take more detailed discussion to that thread and stop polluting the OLED Technology thread...

Current view is that break-in does not make much difference but OLED Light might. Another Survey here on AVS indicated that all but one case of burn-in occurred on WOLED with OLED Light set at 80 or higher while no WOLEDs with brightness set 60 or lower suffered burn-in. (The two WOLEDs with OLED Light at 70 went 50/50).

This latest report was with OLED Light at 60, so that is the first report that even with OLED Light that low, burn-in is possible given enough repeated viewing.

It seems to be a very long-term effect only caused by constant viewing of the same static image components over many months, and at least one possible theory is that the 'pixel-refresh' technology runs out of headroom once threshold shift it too extreme...

As a point of reference, 2-hours per day 7-days a week amounts to over 60 hours per month or 720 hours per year of the same static image components.

Today's WOLED technology may just not be well-suited to those who watch the same TV or cable channels day-in, day-out... (which infortunately, is a larger number of people than you might think, even if such viewers represent the '1%' among AVSers ).
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All this sounds LCD agony in high-end segment will start in 2020. Interesting question now is if iLED will show up and take some bites of OLED until this time.
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