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post #2011 of 11415 Old 03-22-2011, 10:14 PM
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That was never my intention. You believed their word. Honestly misled like WMD is not lying but nonetheless untrue.

Neither are the samsung exec lying per se. Like I said it is perfectly valid excuse. But they have their own constraints. Life is not so simple and straight forward.

Anyway sidetrack on this issue here's a snippet out yesterday... so which exec is "lying"?:

SEOUL, March 22 (Yonhap) -- LG Display Co. recently requested that Samsung Electronics Co. confirm news reports that one of its senior executives publicly insulted LG engineers, sources said Tuesday, raising worries that intensifying market competition between the two South Korean electronics rivals might develop into a court battle.

The move comes after Kim Hyun-suk, vice president of Samsung's digital media business, reportedly derided LG engineers by using a swear word during a meeting with reporters on March 8. The remark was made as he explained to reporters the differences in the 3-D TV technologies of the two rival companies.

"It is true that we sent the letter (to confirm the incident)," an LG Display official said. "Though we are competing with each other over 3-D TV technology standards, there are business ethics and manners that we have to observe."

Samsung and LG Electronics Inc, the world's No. 1 and No. 2 flat-panel TV makers, have been engaged in a war of words over whose 3-D TV technology is more advanced. LG Display supplies display panels to LG Electronics.

The battle flared up further after LG Electronics unveiled a new 3-D TV lineup last month using the film-type patterned retarder technology, claiming that its TVs are more advanced than those made by Samsung.

In an unusually harsh rhetoric, Samsung recently lashed out at its smaller rival for launching "dishonest" marketing campaigns about their 3-D TV technologies.

LG Display said the company sent the letter to Samsung in order to confirm the situation, adding that if the report of the alleged remark turns out to be true, the company might consider taking legal action against the Samsung executive for damaging the reputation of its engineers.

"If it is true that an executive member of such a respected global company insulted a rival company's workers, it is disappointing and also unacceptable," the LG official added.

Meanwhile, a Samsung official confirmed that Kim made an "inappropriate" remark, saying that he expressed regret for it. The official said that Samsung plans to keep as low of a profile as possible, fearing that a protracted fight between the world's leading TV manufacturers might tarnish its corporate image in the global market.
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post #2012 of 11415 Old 03-23-2011, 05:50 AM
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Originally Posted by specuvestor View Post

The fact that they jumped generations straight to 8G should indicate somewhat about their strategy. They do not think OLED is competitive in the highly commoditised 11-30" PC space. However the corollary is also true that it will be competitive in the TV space for the perceived value in PQ and aesthetic improvements, especially in the premium space as rogo indicated, even if it may very well never be cheaper than LCD TV.

But just as it is possible to ship 10m >60" TV ie 5% market eventually, IMHO it is also likely that 10m OLED TV is not far fetch. Which is also why I don't think there is no room for plasma to exist in the next 10 years. The assumption of winner takes all is probably incorrect in the medium term.

PS on Apple using LCD, it is not a question of whether it thinks LCD with retina resolution is superior. It is a question of whether it has a choice in the first place.

I'm reasonably sure that 60-inch+ TVs will eventually comprise somewhere between 3 and 10% of the market. As for 10 million OLED TVs, perhaps by decade's end. Maybe five years? Sooner than that? Not a chance.

Re: Apple. If they wanted a 4-5 inch OLED display for an iPhone, it would likely exist. One thing that drives markets is people stepping up to buy the product. The volumes Apple pushes would allow manufacturers to justify the investment in production. I will agree that no one on earth could make enough 10" OLEDs for the iPad at this time. If you are saying that Apple couldn't have gotten enough screens for iPhones that were OLED, then I can say the only possible reason is that no one could make them.

Until Galaxy S, Samsung itself could not have outbid Apple for displays from Samsung as they'd have nothing to put them in. And, again, if Apple told LG they wanted 100 million 4-5" OLEDs 2 years from now for iPhone, they could back that up with a pre-payment. Call me when someone else can do that.

There is no difference in HDMI cables. If you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working. (Oh, and plasma didn't die because of logistics problems, nor does OLED ship in big boxes because it comes from Korea.)
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post #2013 of 11415 Old 03-23-2011, 06:00 AM
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JMO, but I dont think that the relevant question is whether OLED's will be cheaper than LCD's, but rather whether they can at least approach LCD prices. ....

You are putting the cart before the horse. Of course LCD's will outsell OLED's during that time period. The first thing we need to see is shifts in capex spending.

So the topic is about OLED in the context of televisions. Just because Asian media can say they will "leapfrog from 32 to 55 inch" doesn't mean I have to buy it.

There is no such precedent really. No one has been able to produce a remotely affordable OLED over 7 inches. We know that drive voltages are a serious issue as screen size ramps and that in any fab, the production costs of larger displays cut from the same motherglass are higher unless yields are very very high. I have no idea what the yield is for the 7-inch displays, but I'm going to guess it's not near the LCD yield. I'm also going to guess that issues with scaling to larger sizes are pushing down yields at, say, LG, even more than the normal yield depression you get from bigger cuts.

I don't see a chance in hell of a 55-inch OLED TV shipping at any price next year and I see the chance as very small for a high-priced one to ship in 2013. I base this on the fact that even a 15-inch will be a bridge too far in 2011 (the LG will exist, be hard to find, cost an astronomical sum, and, oh, be hard to find). I base the future predictions not on some high-minded cap ex numbers, which are driven almost 100% by mobile phones and tablets, but on the utter lack of historical precedent. Thing being made in tiny sizes doesn't suddenly become thing made in giant sizes when the history of said thing has been its very slow ramp up from even tinier sizes (the first full color OLED in a practical CE device was used on a digital camera I'm fairly sure).

I'm curious what dates spec would put on the various TV sizes.

There is no difference in HDMI cables. If you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working. (Oh, and plasma didn't die because of logistics problems, nor does OLED ship in big boxes because it comes from Korea.)
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post #2014 of 11415 Old 03-23-2011, 06:09 AM
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Do you think we'll see 32" OLED TV next Christmas, probably $5000? That's as precise as I can get agree we won't see 55" next year but no one's saying that either. It will have to wait for 8G, if ever.

I have to disagree on Apple getting supplies. LG either couldn't make them on handsets for reasons unknown to me, or they are incoherent in their strategy. I think it is the latter and they are really clueless after all these years and make sense they will always be second fiddle.

Samsung wouldn't sell any OLED to Apple just as it stopped selling to HTC after a short while because galaxy S were selling so well! At least I see Sammy being coherent in strategy. To be honest, even if apple gave prepayment they won't get OLED from Sammy. Capacity doesn't appear overnight even if you have the dough, which sammy is not lacking either. They are as much on a collision course as Apple with Google, despite Sammy as Apple's foundry.

NB strategically if you were Sammy what would you do if you control 90% of a market that differentiates your product? That's what Bill Gates did in Microsoft. Comparatively Balmer is a joke and belongs to LG's league.
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post #2015 of 11415 Old 03-23-2011, 01:48 PM
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My point about Samsung and Apple is that Apple could've made the deal 2 years ago. At that point, Galaxy S was probably not even a sketch in product design. The guys who sell displays would've taken the billions 2 years ago, not waited for Samsung to maybe produce a competitive phone.

Similarly, if Apple showed up on LG's doorstep tomorrow with $5 billion toward 10" OLED displays for the 2012 iPad, I believe it could happen. But Apple from what I can detect sees no strategic advantage in OLED. Most people consider the Retina Display the best phone display on the market (and even experts who do side by side testing find it "one of the best"). Apple is doubtless more interested in a Retina Display iPad than in OLED per se. Of course, if/when Apple goes OLED, they will tell us they more or less invented it.

There is no difference in HDMI cables. If you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working. (Oh, and plasma didn't die because of logistics problems, nor does OLED ship in big boxes because it comes from Korea.)
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post #2016 of 11415 Old 03-23-2011, 04:23 PM
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I base the future predictions not on some high-minded cap ex numbers, which are driven almost 100% by mobile phones and tablets,

I am not sure what you mean by "high-minded". Following the historical precedents makes sense to me right up until you start seeing dollars spent to upend that historical model.

We still dont have an official announcement of a Gen 8 fab, but if we do get one, you can be sure that they arent building it with 7" tablets in mind. That size fab only makes sense for television sized displays.

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post #2017 of 11415 Old 03-23-2011, 05:50 PM
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FWIW it is rumored that Apple asked CMI to develop OLED which made me excited about this sleepy stock. Unfortunately I had to relearn AGAIN the importance of TIMING.

And I totally agree Apple would be able to publicise OLED as if they invented it, just like IPS or gorilla glass
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post #2018 of 11415 Old 03-23-2011, 06:32 PM
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So what percent of today's TV market is held by 60"+ TVs?

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post #2019 of 11415 Old 03-23-2011, 11:53 PM
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should be around 1% or 2mio new sales annual (not installed base) including RPTV
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post #2020 of 11415 Old 03-24-2011, 05:14 PM
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I'm surprised. I thought it was more common. I have a 61" JVC RPTV and would find it difficult to go any smaller.

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post #2021 of 11415 Old 03-24-2011, 10:38 PM
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Think probably 5-10% if 50"+. This stat is hard to come by as large display in the industry is defined as anything >10"

But RPTV is 0.1% as in 4Q10
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post #2022 of 11415 Old 03-25-2011, 04:40 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by slacker711 View Post

I am not sure what you mean by "high-minded". Following the historical precedents makes sense to me right up until you start seeing dollars spent to upend that historical model.

We still dont have an official announcement of a Gen 8 fab, but if we do get one, you can be sure that they arent building it with 7" tablets in mind. That size fab only makes sense for television sized displays.

First of all, 7" tablets are going to seem like a curiosity compared to the volumes of 10" tablets sold. Apple is the dominant tablet maker and doesn't currently even offer a 7" model. Samsung and Motorola are both coming out with 10" models.

Second of all, there is absolutely no reason why a giant fab doesn't make sense to make 10" panels. Cycle times on fabs and fabbing equipment are improved through the use of larger substrates regardless of the ultimate number of panels those are cut into . Imagine a machine that takes the glass in and "processes" it. The machine can be built large enough to handle larger substrates, but due to tolerances, the need for precision, etc. it can only hold one piece of glass at a time.

It doesn't much matter whether you are making 5" screens or 85" screens, you want the piece of glad place into said "processing machine" to be as large as possible. They make 32" panels on giant LCD fabs, which by your logic would "make no sense".

I'm not saying that Samsung isn't gearing up to make OLED TVs. But I sure am skeptical that they are. They haven't done so to date. They are dominant in LCD and ridiculously strong in plasma. They need a third TV technology like Jay Leno needs another car. Let's use Specuvestor's prediction as the one that intrigues me for the moment:

2012, Christmas, $5000, 32-inch OLED TV

I'm betting against; I think he's betting on for.

I hope he's correct.

(note: either way, an OLED TV that should interest any of us here is 2+ years away -- minimum.)

There is no difference in HDMI cables. If you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working. (Oh, and plasma didn't die because of logistics problems, nor does OLED ship in big boxes because it comes from Korea.)
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post #2023 of 11415 Old 03-25-2011, 06:50 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo View Post

Second of all, there is absolutely no reason why a giant fab doesn't make sense to make 10" panels. Cycle times on fabs and fabbing equipment are improved through the use of larger substrates regardless of the ultimate number of panels those are cut into . Imagine a machine that takes the glass in and "processes" it. The machine can be built large enough to handle larger substrates, but due to tolerances, the need for precision, etc. it can only hold one piece of glass at a time.

It doesn't much matter whether you are making 5" screens or 85" screens, you want the piece of glad place into said "processing machine" to be as large as possible. They make 32" panels on giant LCD fabs, which by your logic would "make no sense".

Yes, but the efficiency gains of using larger sizes of glass go way down when you are building smaller than optimal displays. It becomes much harder to justify the increased capex and that is particularly true for a Gen 8 OLED fab since it will require new processes and will likely have much lower yields than the Gen 4 and Gen 5.5 fabs.

Here is a table from Samsung illustrating that point for the Gen 5.5 plant.



Considering the move to new processes, and thus lower yields, a Gen 8 fab used for mobile displays would likely have higher per unit costs than those produced at a Gen 4 and Gen 5.5.

FWIW, I have been on record for quite a while saying that we'll see a sub-$5000 32" TV in 2012. I actually think there is a decent chance we'll get well below that price point. If I'm wrong, I'll be here to take my lumps.

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post #2024 of 11415 Old 03-25-2011, 06:53 AM
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Originally Posted by rogo View Post

2012, Christmas, $5000, 32-inch OLED TV

I'm betting against; I think he's betting on for.

LG 30"+ should drop this year. When LG laid out future OLED plans in 2009 and claimed(outlandishly) they would have have comparable to LCD priced OLEDs in 2015, they also announced a 30"+ in 2010, which they obviously failed to deliver on. Slips at the beginning compound near on longer term plans.

But the price rumors I saw for the LG 31" was £6000 (> $9000 USD).

I think $5000 USD 32" for 2012 might be a close one, so you need to define terms of any bet precisely. Does 31" count? Which currency/country delivered?
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post #2025 of 11415 Old 03-25-2011, 10:00 AM
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Guidryp, to clarify, $5000 USD MSRP. And, yes, I'll give Spec the inch to allow for the LG.

By the way, I don't believe that LG will be available for purchase in the U.S. if it ships this year in Korea. I do believe the $9000 price.

Again, I don't really want to be right.

There is no difference in HDMI cables. If you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working. (Oh, and plasma didn't die because of logistics problems, nor does OLED ship in big boxes because it comes from Korea.)
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post #2026 of 11415 Old 03-25-2011, 10:24 AM
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Yeah, I don't think there is high chance of 31"+ $5000 USD shipping in the USA by the the end of 2012, unless it is a black friday sale.
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post #2027 of 11415 Old 03-25-2011, 11:42 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by slacker711 View Post

Yes, but the efficiency gains of using larger sizes of glass go way down when you are building smaller than optimal displays. It becomes much harder to justify the increased capex and that is particularly true for a Gen 8 OLED fab since it will require new processes and will likely have much lower yields than the Gen 4 and Gen 5.5 fabs.

Here is a table from Samsung illustrating that point for the Gen 5.5 plant.

Considering the move to new processes, and thus lower yields, a Gen 8 fab used for mobile displays would likely have higher per unit costs than those produced at a Gen 4 and Gen 5.5.

yes the maths for slacker is right, in particular higher depreciation and motherglass cost. In addition your selling price ASP for smaller size is also much lower ie lower price and higher cost is double whammy.
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Originally Posted by specuvestor View Post

8G is not profitable for 32" mainly due to glass and manufacturing cost plus non cash depreciation for the fab. Cost is not linear per m2 as motherglass size increases. We know this because LGD tried making 32" with their 7.5G plant in 2006 just to fill up capacity.

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post #2028 of 11415 Old 03-25-2011, 11:45 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo View Post

Guidryp, to clarify, $5000 USD MSRP. And, yes, I'll give Spec the inch to allow for the LG.

By the way, I don't believe that LG will be available for purchase in the U.S. if it ships this year in Korea. I do believe the $9000 price.

Again, I don't really want to be right.

It's ok. I'm in the business of approximately right than absolutely wrong

I don't trust LG in innovation implementation.
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post #2029 of 11415 Old 03-27-2011, 02:16 PM
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http://www.physorg.com/news/2011-03-...-believed.html

Greater quantum efficiency of blue OLEDs. Now up to 10% QY.
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post #2030 of 11415 Old 04-12-2011, 09:02 AM
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http://www.oled-info.com/sony-pvm-1741-pvm-2541

The PVM-1741 and PVM-2541 are professional OLED monitors aimed towards TV, advertising and movie productions. These monitors use the same 16.5" and 24.5" OLED panels used in the higher-end BVM-E170/BVM-E250. Both monitors offer Full-HD (1080p) support, 89-degrees viewing angle, 10-bit drivers and a 1W mono speaker. Inputs include two 3G-SDI, HDMI, composite and Ethernet.



Both monitors will be released in Q2 2011 in Japan. The PVM-1741 will cost ¥417,900 ($4,900) and the PVM-2541 will cost ¥627,900 ($7,400). That's much cheaper then the BVM monitors (which cost $15,000 and $30,000).
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post #2031 of 11415 Old 04-12-2011, 09:35 AM
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Next flat-screens arriving

Another noticeable thing in this year’s NAB is that organic LED or OLED screens ― which are the next-generation flat-screen technology after the conventional plasma and the industry’s current mainstream of LCD screens ― are becoming more affordable.

OLED screens have clearer images than LCD ones, however, cost still matters. The screens are currently being used for smaller high-end devices such as handsets.

Although the top TV maker Samsung is developing OLED televisions for first-mover advantage, it’s expected that the market for advanced and premium TVs is still 7 years away, according to market watchers and analysts.

Sony, which already commercialized 11-inch OLED TV and the prototype of its 27-inch OLED set, has released 17-inch and 25-inch OLED monitors for professional use.

``It’s been crucial to open the market. 3D images require clearer viewing and we will do more starting from professional use,’’ said Yang Woo-jin, general manager for the Planning and Marketing Division.

But Yang declined to unveil the name of its new customers for OLED monitors, though the monitors are expected to be shipped just right after NAB.

``This year will see more 3D films and programs by film makers and broadcasters, which means 3D-capable equipment is more than crucial. That’s a new but very attractive market,’’ said another participant at the show.

``Chances are that Sony could strengthen its lead in 3D-equipment for professional use because of lower costs and improved functionality.’’
http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news...129_84988.html
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post #2032 of 11415 Old 04-12-2011, 04:59 PM
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"Although the top TV maker Samsung is developing OLED televisions for first-mover advantage, it’s expected that the market for advanced and premium TVs is still 7 years away, according to market watchers and analysts."

And that says it all. Thanks for the links, good stuff.

There is no difference in HDMI cables. If you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working. (Oh, and plasma didn't die because of logistics problems, nor does OLED ship in big boxes because it comes from Korea.)
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post #2033 of 11415 Old 04-12-2011, 05:06 PM
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The PVM-1741 will cost ¥417,900 ($4,900) and the PVM-2541 will cost ¥627,900 ($7,400). That's much cheaper then the BVM monitors (which cost $15,000 and $30,000).

Personally, I think this says quite a bit. A 25" non-consumer OLED that is likely produced on a tiny experimental line will be available for $7400 in Q2.

The prediction for sub-$5000 30" OLED's by the end of 2012 is looking safer all the time.

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post #2034 of 11415 Old 04-12-2011, 09:41 PM
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Korea launch, any increase in resolution will be good news, in preparation of tablet launch:

"SEC will launch Galaxy S2 on Apr. 25th instead of June to preempt Apple's iPhone 5 launch in 3Q11.

Specs:
- 4.3" Super AMOLED panel.
- 1.2GHz dual-core CPU
- 8.7mm thin
- HSPA+, 2X faster N/W than 3G
- High-speed Bluetooth 3.0+HS
- Gingerbread Android OS 2.3
- 8 Megapixel camera
- 16/32GB available
- W900,000 (US$820) or W200,000 (US$180) with 2-year plan"
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post #2035 of 11415 Old 04-13-2011, 12:04 AM
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Quote:
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Personally, I think this says quite a bit. A 25" non-consumer OLED that is likely produced on a tiny experimental line will be available for $7400 in Q2.

The prediction for sub-$5000 30" OLED's by the end of 2012 is looking safer all the time.
The Sony broadcast unit has an 89-degree viewing angle? That sounds awful for an emissive display. Do they mean 178 degree?

Regardless, I'm glad you think the prediction is safe. Call me when someone ships a model that meets the criteria and I can buy it from Best Buy.

There is no difference in HDMI cables. If you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working. (Oh, and plasma didn't die because of logistics problems, nor does OLED ship in big boxes because it comes from Korea.)
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post #2036 of 11415 Old 04-13-2011, 12:06 AM
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Originally Posted by specuvestor View Post
Korea launch, any increase in resolution will be good news, in preparation of tablet launch:

"SEC will launch Galaxy S2 on Apr. 25th instead of June to preempt Apple's iPhone 5 launch in 3Q11.

Specs:
- 4.3" Super AMOLED panel.
How many pixels do you think the phone will have?

There is no difference in HDMI cables. If you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working. (Oh, and plasma didn't die because of logistics problems, nor does OLED ship in big boxes because it comes from Korea.)
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post #2037 of 11415 Old 04-13-2011, 01:25 AM
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I have no info on this, but I hope SVGA 800X600 will be good step and closer to retina display, 1280X720 on the tablet will be ideal

PS Nokia new OLED phone X7 is disappointingly just 360 x 640, though probably correlated with their 680Mhz ARM.
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post #2038 of 11415 Old 04-13-2011, 06:52 AM
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The Galaxy s2 has a 800x480 display. My understanding is that Samsung wont be able to match the iPhone pixel density while using their current manufacturing process (shadow mask with vacuum deposition). They are limited to something like 250ppi.

If the Gen 8 rumors are true, both LG and Samsung likely have a new process in mind. The shadow mask is unlikely to be able to scale to those substrate sizes.

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post #2039 of 11415 Old 04-13-2011, 07:24 AM
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800 x 480 would be the same as the original galaxy s and shouldn't be too hopeful on the OLED tablet resolution then
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post #2040 of 11415 Old 04-13-2011, 09:04 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by specuvestor View Post

800 x 480 would be the same as the original galaxy s and shouldn't be too hopeful on the OLED tablet resolution then

They increased the number of pixels on the Galaxy S2 by getting rid of the pentile display, but that still doesnt get them to iPhone 4 quality. If the rumors are true, LG would be able to achieve a "retina" display using their WRGB scheme in their rumored Gen 8 fab....but that is still a long way off.

As for tablets, the Xoom has a 1280x800 10" display and that translates to around 160ppi. Samsung should be able to achieve that using their current manufacturing process. The hold up to OLED tablets is going to be capacity and perhaps yields on the Gen 5.5 fab.

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Reply OLED Technology and Flat Panels General

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Led Hdtv , Lcd Hdtv , Plasma Hdtv , Oled Tv , Lg , Samsung

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