Timeline for HD-DVD? - AVS Forum
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post #1 of 44 Old 03-19-2001, 02:03 PM - Thread Starter
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As great as D-VHS looks, I think it only succeeds as a concept as a transition product, the only one that can currently support HD media. I think it's selling point is that of a recording device for HD programs and a TEMPORARY TRANSITION device for playback of prerecorded HD movies. I think the latter will be relegated to HD-DVD in the future. I don't think many people will give up the ability to skip scenes, not rewind, etc etc. Also DVd's are less clunky looking. All this leads to my main question. When is HD-DVD going to be available for release of HD versions of movies?
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post #2 of 44 Old 03-19-2001, 02:24 PM - Thread Starter
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On a follow up, if you look around, there seems to be a backlash against DVHS and subsequently HDTV. You hear things like, "I'll never buy one, it's too expensive, $10,000 for the TV, then $2000 for the DVHS player for the 2 people in America who own HDTVs, and who wants to give up the conveniance of DVDs" This is the main reason why I think HD-DVD will surpass D-VHS as the choice for prerecorded HD movies. It's more of a natural progression from regular DVD, infact the HD DVD players will play regular DVD too. And because it's more linear, it sheds a better light on HDTV. We won't have a SEPARATE system like laserdisc just for the selective world of HDTV. We'll have an enhanced DVD which is more accepted.
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post #3 of 44 Old 03-20-2001, 12:45 PM
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HD-DVD will be at least 2-5 years away unless they comeout with a new compression data system. If they do it might not be comaptible with existing DVD. The lasers that are in the existing dvd recordes CANNOT read more than 4 gigs. Considering that a movie in MPEG format is close to 50 Gigs. It will some time be fore you get a recordable dvd player let alone for the manufactuers to agree on a format. The good news is they have developed the blue laser for commercial use. But for consumer use it must be rate for 10,000 hours. This it the minimum rating for a consumer products ie. cd rom, cd, laserdisc and dvd players are only rated for 10,000 hours of use. If any of you were around for laserdisc, the blue lasers were talked about over 15 years ago, so it will be a long wait yet.

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post #4 of 44 Old 03-20-2001, 01:54 PM
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Andrew Lam:

I take exception to your calculations:

There are already DVD-ROMs with two layers yielding 8.5 GBytes per side or 17 GBytes per two-layer-per-side, two-sided disk. For a reference, try DVD-info. (I have at least one movie that takes advantage of the second recording layer, btw, and it plays just fine on my year+ old Pioneer DVD-ROM drive.)

ATSC HDTV data rate is 2.4 MBytes per second, or about 8.73 GBytes per hour. Much of that (from memory, greater than 30%) is Forward Error Correction for the noisy broadcast channel.

So, most movies can today could fit on a single DVD disk (two-sided), and achieve OTA HDTV quality.

Given that all recording technology, even optical, advances at least as fast as Moore's Law, 2 years sounds like the pessimistic side of the range.

So, why aren't there HDTV DVD's available today? My guess is that MPAA has something to do with it.

My $.02. Which may not be worth that much at current market rates.

-yogaman

[This message has been edited by yogaman (edited 03-20-2001).]
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post #5 of 44 Old 03-20-2001, 07:28 PM
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For the most part I do agree with your reasoning, as I am aware of how the dvd codex and format work. Don't get me wrong I would desperately want HD DVD. But just trying to inform the general public and their expectations. Just like supersonic flight. Why don't we have somethingelse than the old concord. It is not commercially viable. We can build stealth fighters and shuttles but their hasn't been anything new in over 25 years for supersonic commercial flights.

Second Moore Law do not apply to dvd development as you are dealing with mechanical parts, alignment etc.. not semiconductors. Why do you think it took over 15 years for an industrial blue laser. As for dual sided dvds. Do you want to wait for that hesitation (0.5 sec) for that layer change. Do you want to wait for your player to change disc (5 sec) or even for you to get up to change the disk. My 4 gig comment was for each layer.

What is the point of having a player that WON'T record OTA or DSS signal since the ATSC standard is 19.4 MBytes/sec for transmission. That is 10 times the 2.0 MBytes/sec for a perfect pre-recorded signal. You need at least 10MByte/sec for slightly better than S-VHS quality. Yes as always the MPAA has quite a say on this product. Remember what they did and said about prerecorded VHS tapes.

Maybe I am pestimistic but if it comes earlier that would be great. I would be there with you jumping up and down for joy but I want to be realistic and not be disappointed when two years comes by and it is not here yet. There are some people who will wait just because he heard a friend said hd-dvd will be out in six months. Hope you understand my viewpoint. And yes all products that we buy are transitional products. It is the timeline that you judge the transition. Holographic displays are next, and they are here. You just need two D-ILA projectors and a polarizer kit.


[This message has been edited by Andrew Lam (edited 03-20-2001).]

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post #6 of 44 Old 03-21-2001, 06:52 AM
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Quote:
<font face="Verdana, Arial" size="2">Originally posted by Andrew Lam:
What is the point of having a player that WON'T record OTA or DSS signal since the ATSC standard is 19.4 MBytes/sec for transmission. That is 10 times the 2.0 MBytes/sec for a perfect pre-recorded signal. You need at least 10MByte/sec for slightly better than S-VHS quality. Yes as always the MPAA has quite a say on this product. Remember what they did and said about prerecorded VHS tapes.
</font>
ATSC transmits 19.4 Megabits per second (Mbs), not Megabytes per-second (MBs) or approximately 2.5 Megabytes per second. With a good two or three pass encoding system, starting with 24 frame film-originated content, you can get high-quality HD (1920x1080/24P) at 12Mbs giving you a 2 hour movie in around 12GB -- something that will fit (although split on two layers and two sides on a disk today). Having said that, the current DVD standard is limited to playback at 10Mbs, which is still too slow.

According to Sony's CTO, HD-DVD should be here within the next 18 months to two years. Their initial player should cost around $1,200 just about the same price point as their first DVD player, and their content should be priced at about the same price as current content (they want you to replace your film library again).

He also expects them to release a consumer-priced HD camcorder in around the same time frame.

/carmi
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post #7 of 44 Old 03-21-2001, 12:11 PM
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does that mean that HDTV is dying the same death that Laser disk did? they will be a novelty for the obsessed only and be sold only on ebay??
hmmmmmmm.

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post #8 of 44 Old 03-21-2001, 12:20 PM - Thread Starter
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No, it doesn't, and for one reason. While it might be small and analagous to laserdisc now, the main difference between HDTV and laserdisc, is that the government didnt mandate that all non laserdisc players would be eventually shut off. Digital TV WILL prevail in america, because the government has mandated it. The analog bandwith stations have now must be returned or they'll be charged exorbitant rental charges. Therefore the transition will happen.
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post #9 of 44 Old 03-21-2001, 01:10 PM
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&gt; He also expects them to release a consumer-priced HD camcorder in around the same time frame [18 to 24 months].

Wow! Any links or articles on this? That would be very exciting news.
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post #10 of 44 Old 03-21-2001, 03:20 PM
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5 years is incredibly overoptimistic for HD-DVD, but not because of the technology. Several manufacturers have been demoing prototype HD-DVD players using blue laser technology for at least two years; these units have a capacity of about 25 GB per side, which translates to about 3 hrs of recording time - enough for the vast majority of movies, though it doesn't leave a lot of room for extras. There is also Fluorescent Multilayer (FMD) technology, which is about a year behind blue laser in development progress and promises over 140 GB per side.

The problem is the studios/MPAA. They are totally paranoid about copy protection, and would like nothing more than to see HDTV fail completely. There is no way they are going to agree to release titles on any new HD-DVD media until they are forced to, either by congress or by a total change in market dynamics. Neither is at all likely to happen for at least 10 years, IMHO.
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post #11 of 44 Old 03-21-2001, 09:45 PM - Thread Starter
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Agreed, it will be a laserdisc type product because HDTV itself is a laserdisc type product. Most people have no idea what it is or know anything about it. Those of who do, know a whole lot. I can guarantee that most people with HDTV's will buy this D-VHS because it'll be the only product to have hi def movies on it. BUT, like i said, hdtv is a laserdisc product anyway and so therefore the movie player for such a device is obviously relegated to the same status
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post #12 of 44 Old 03-22-2001, 07:58 AM
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The MPAA realizes that high resolution high capacity affordable home recording media is inevitable, if only because the technology will be driven by computer needs.

It is unlikely they will be able to permanently cripple or avoid this change.

They do however have the incentive and power to delay it for a few more years by incessant lobbying and the never ending copy control proposals and negotiations filibuster.

- Tom

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post #13 of 44 Old 03-22-2001, 04:53 PM
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Look everyone, progress has always been in the forward direction and HD is progress. Do you really think it isn't going to happen? Well it is. It just takes a while, that's all, and not even Hollywood can stop it for long.

It seems to me that everyone around here is totally obsessed with Hollywood movies. Look, when an appropriate HD DVD vehicle appears, there will be a new gold rush. I mean Broadway, opera, musical performers, documentaries, Independent movies shot on HD Cams--a million of these sorts of things. And when this starts to happen, do you really think Hollywood will remain sitting on the sidelines? I think not. They'll start small, releasing stuff they don't care about like "The Ninth Gate" and various oldies, etc., and then when people actually rush to buy them, they'll continue to put out more. Then they'll see that no one's stealing their stuff in bulk, that's it's going to happen safely and profitably just like ordinary DVD movies did. See? That's how it will happen. In a nutshell, when the technology appears, the software will be right behind. A ripple and then an avalanche.

Incidentally, the FMD system is quite advanced and looks like a good answer for HD DVD. It will likely start appearing on the market in a couple of years--probably as computer drives first.

Cheers. Don

[This message has been edited by M.Hat (edited 03-22-2001).]

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post #14 of 44 Old 03-22-2001, 05:44 PM
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I'm not sure that this is off thread or not, but has anyone considered that the HD DVD may not be the model that drives this? Consider the DirecTV TIVO unit hooked up with Blockbuster, and near VOD (downloadiing movies). This would be a bunch cheaper than stocking stores with inventory, be absolutly painless to distribute. Hollywood would feel secure, etc. Consider this in light of E* trying to buy Direct. This would free up and incredible amount of bandwidth for things like this.

Just a thought,

Mike


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post #15 of 44 Old 03-22-2001, 07:23 PM
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I think you're right, Mike, but that's further along down the road. HD DVDs are much closer and represent the next plateau, IMO.

Don.



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post #16 of 44 Old 03-22-2001, 07:56 PM
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Progress with blue-green lasers has been rapid in the last two years. This development has been the result of some breakthroughs in some particular semicondcutor materials, noteably GaN.

They can be purchased, see
http://WWW.POWERTECHNOLOGY.COM/LDINFO/DIOLIST.ASP

The lifetime approaches that of FP bulbs and will most likely increase with R&D. They may not be ready for FP yet, but DVD is another story.

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post #17 of 44 Old 03-22-2001, 09:41 PM
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Andrew Lam:

1. HDDs have beaten Moore's Law for seveal generations. They're electromechanical, please note. The blue laser problem was a semiconductor materials issue for one particular way to get the density up on some types of one recording method, i.e., optical media. I don't want to launch into an off-topic discussion of why Moore's Law works, but look at the overall results. (Barry Kelman gives examples.) Recording capacity increases at least as fast as the Moore's Law curve.

2. As majortom pointed out: 19.4 Mbps, not 19.4 MBps.

3. Playback-only was fine for DVD. Why not fine for HD-DVD?

majortom:

DVD standard is 10 mbps, but DVD-ROM drives do 6x or even 10x. So, playback speed of today's drives shouldn't be a factor. (And thanks for pointing out the MBps vs. Mbps error first.)

barry kelman:

Good summary of technology. Makes one salivate, no?

trbarry and barry kelman, regarding studios/MPAA:

I agree wholeheartedly. I think it's obscene that Matsushita and Sony own both the player manufacturers and the movie rights.

Nonetheless, Sony's new media and player format will doubtless be better suited for mass consumption of HD-DVDs. Just a pity that they'll force us to pay so much more than I think we should have to for the next generation.

If movie rights were easy to get and not very expensive, I'd be willing to bet that something like Video-CD, sort of near-HD (at least) on DVD, would already be available.

I've upped my ante to $.04, now, I guess.

-yogaman
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post #18 of 44 Old 03-23-2001, 05:57 PM
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Quote:
<font face="Verdana, Arial" size="2">Originally posted by Andrew Lam:
Yes as always the MPAA has quite a say on this product. Remember what they did and said about prerecorded VHS tapes.

[This message has been edited by Andrew Lam (edited 03-20-2001).]
</font>
When it comes to copy protection and bootlegging, the studios stand united with the MPAA. That does not extend to home video software. Yes, the MPAA doesn't like home video and really won't like HD-DVD's because it threatens their PRIMARY interest, the theatres.

But let's not forget who owns this material and who profits from it's sale. It's the studios. And where does the largest slice of their income come from, not ticket sales in these shoe box theatres, it's home video. Once HD-DVD becomes cost effective and a reasonable copy protection scheme is implemented, you will have HD-DVD's avaialble in your supermarket much like happened with DVD's.

The MPAA has no say in this, and if they try, they will be slapped down real quick by their finnancial supporters, the member studios.

What was the last writer's and SAG strikes over? What is the upcomming SAG and writers guild beef that will result in this summer's strike. It's home video windfall profit which they don't get to play in.

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post #19 of 44 Old 03-23-2001, 09:42 PM
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MHat,

I think it might be closer than you think. The Blockbuster / DirecTV Tivo deal has already been announced. There have already been a bunch of trials. Blockbuster is committed, (and has been for years), and Blockbuster is owned by Viacom, which also owns CBS. Time will tell though, cause I sure don't want to get in an argument over something as speculative as this. Will keep my fingers crossed.

Mike


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post #20 of 44 Old 03-24-2001, 02:57 PM
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Glimmie:

I agree with all the points you made, but I'd like to highlight a distinction you glossed over:

"But let's not forget who owns this material and who profits from it's sale. It's the studios."

Yes, the studios own the software (i.e., movies), but look who owns the studios: MCA Universal is owned by Matsushita, the parent of JVC and Panasonic, and Columbia Pictures is owned by Sony.

I think these megalithic hardware/software companies see the HD-DVD generation as an opportunity to sell both a new generation of hardware and a new generation of software. I think they are staging the introduction of the new format to occur after the profit margin on DVD players has fallen below what the hardware divisions find comfortable. I think they see a fine synergy between being able to introduce costly new hardware and promoting it by reselling higher-priced, new and improved versions of the same software (as well as new titles) in the new format.

To me, using domination of one market to protect another like this is a violation of anti-trust statutes. But I'm not a lawyer.

I wonder if others share my impressions.

-yogaman

[This message has been edited by yogaman (edited 03-24-2001).]
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post #21 of 44 Old 03-26-2001, 02:59 PM
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That's good, you take it even further. My point as that the MPAA has no power on it's own. It's merely a trade association. No different from the AMA or the BAR. Some people think the MPAA has the authority of the IRS! I mean they actaully think the MPAA can sue people like 16x9 for making a firewire port add-on to the DTC100. Get real!

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post #22 of 44 Old 03-26-2001, 03:58 PM
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Matsushita does not own Universal any longer and hasn't for a few years. Seagrams purchased Universal from Matsushita. Of course, now the new owners are no longer Seagrams, but Vivendi....


-> No longer looking for Hi-Vision LDs <-

(I buried that format finally)


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post #23 of 44 Old 03-26-2001, 05:00 PM
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<font face="Verdana, Arial" size="2">Originally posted by Glimmie:
I mean they actaully think the MPAA can sue people like 16x9 for making a firewire port add-on to the DTC100. Get real!</font>
How's this for reality: the MPAA can and will sue 16x9 if they are believed to pose a significant threat to MPAA doctrine and refuse to adhere. It is not necessarily a suit intended to be won in the courts. Rather, one that is intended to bleed the small business of capital to enforce the will of the large "association" by excessive litigation. It happens every day.


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[This message has been edited by Man E (edited 03-26-2001).]

HBO is guilty of Crimes Against Filmanity!

From Paragraph 44 of the 5th Report and Order: We note in this regard that broadcasters and networks have emphasized their commitment to high definition television.

Our
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post #24 of 44 Old 03-26-2001, 07:39 PM
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If it can't record HBO, et. al. in its first iteration, that is definitely the intent. I know that they were also thinking about a version to be used with the HDD200 (which I have). I'm sure that the minidish devices will probably go first though.

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[This message has been edited by Man E (edited 03-26-2001).]

HBO is guilty of Crimes Against Filmanity!

From Paragraph 44 of the 5th Report and Order: We note in this regard that broadcasters and networks have emphasized their commitment to high definition television.

Our
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post #25 of 44 Old 03-27-2001, 11:33 AM
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Quote:
<font face="Verdana, Arial" size="2">Originally posted by Man E:
How's this for reality: the MPAA can and will sue 16x9 if they are believed to pose a significant threat to MPAA doctrine and refuse to adhere. It is not necessarily a suit intended to be won in the courts. Rather, one that is intended to bleed the small business of capital to enforce the will of the large "association" by excessive litigation. It happens every day.

</font>
What MPAA doctrine? Do you think the MPAA has total say in all broadcast material. What about prime time TV, what about sports. Not all studios are members of the MPAA. What about the HBO made for TV movies, they don't fall into the MPAA catagory. Where do you get your information?

I work in this business and have for 15 years. I know the studios and all the other Hollywood BS.

As I see it there are only two legal recourses to stop 16x9.

1) If conditional access on the DTC100 is comprimised, then DirecTV would have a strong case. 16x9 has publically stated they are not doing that.

2) Modifications to the DTC100 void it's UL and FCC certifications. That could be enforced but to date those attempts are very weak. look at all the non UL and FCC approved computer hardware floating around.

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post #26 of 44 Old 03-27-2001, 02:29 PM
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<font face="Verdana, Arial" size="2">What doctrine?</font>
doctrine - the tenets of a literary or philisophical school or of a political or economic system
tenet - a principle or belief held by a person or a group

Quote:
<font face="Verdana, Arial" size="2">Where do you get your information?</font>
Webster's. Clearly, there exists a doctrine for the MPAA. They would otherwise have no justification for their existence or funding.

Quote:
<font face="Verdana, Arial" size="2">Do you think the MPAA has total say in all broadcast material. </font>
You have confused that which I have said with that which you would have liked me to have said so that you could attack my words. I know that I placed enough conditionals in my original statement so as to inform even the casual reader that action may or may not happen. Nowhere did I state that the MPAA rules all of anything. Fortunately, they do not. They are just a well-funded umbrella organization that presents a position that is clearly opposed to functionality of the nature that 16x9 is creating (and that the public desires). So the bullseye is painted on them. Truth is, were they not standing in the crosshairs, another entity likely would be. There is indeed no lack of scoundrals.

However, that is not the point. Regardless of extensive Hollywood careers, this is about how big business reacts when it believes its doctrine to be jeopardized in any way. The reaction varies in degree but is fairly consistent. You don't have to win in court, you just have to out last the little guy. It happens every day, and has been for much longer than 15 years. See it in a court near you.


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post #27 of 44 Old 03-27-2001, 03:00 PM
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Man E:

For what its worth, I agree with you. I think MPAA will be going after 16x9 for exactly the reasons you are talking about. Also, I hope we are both wrong. Who knows, maybe they will get very lucky and get a judge that doesn't tolerate this sort of thing. Very unlikely, but it could happen.

Mike


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post #28 of 44 Old 03-27-2001, 06:47 PM
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Man E:

You did not address my questions. You gave me a definition of a doctrine. You did not outline what was in the MPAA's alleged doctrine. You claim to get this information from the dictonary and therefore state every organization has one.

I work in this business and know how the MPAA operates. There has been way too much assumption and mis-information on this MPAA issue by people who don't know a thing about the motion picture and television industry.

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post #29 of 44 Old 03-28-2001, 06:01 AM
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Glimmie -

There does seem to be a general consensus on this forum that the MPAA and intellectual property owners in general do not want permanent high quality copies to exist. And that they take action to enforce this desire.

Of course the consensus may be wrong but I don't believe they are in this case.

- Tom


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post #30 of 44 Old 03-28-2001, 12:13 PM
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Quote:
<font face="Verdana, Arial" size="2">Originally posted by trbarry:
Glimmie -

There does seem to be a general consensus on this forum that the MPAA and intellectual property owners in general do not want permanent high quality copies to exist. And that they take action to enforce this desire.

Of course the consensus may be wrong but I don't believe they are in this case.

- Tom


</font>
Compare the member profiles with the "consensus". It is not a consensus, but an uninformed speculation . Yes, they MPAA does not want HDTV copies floating around. Would you as a studio executive? But not not wanting something and doing something about it are two different things. The only avenue the MPAA has is lobby power in congress. And killing home recording is not going to happen.


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