Why Blu-Ray/HD-DVD will fail - AVS Forum | Home Theater Discussions And Reviews
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post #1 of 104 Old 10-14-2005, 02:26 PM - Thread Starter
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It looks like the next generation of video players will be available within six months. Does anyone get the feeling that it's going to fail miserably in the consumer market? Here's my feeling: it will slowly gain traction in the computer/backup marketplace, but it will fail to overtake DVDs as the medium of choice for recorded entertainment (for a long time, if ever). Why? Here are my reasons:

1) Public nonchalance. The public doesn't really seem to care about HDTV at this point. There's really no big clamor for it, and to my suprise most shows, even major broadcast shows like The Apprentice, aren't even shown in HDTV. Locally here in DC, we have only one news channel out of three that airs in HDTV, and they're still in last place! Now if people don't care about HDTV all that much, why are they going to care about high def DVD?

2) No set standard. Even if there was a huge demand, there's still the problem of HD-DVD vs. Blu Ray. Right now it looks like Blu-Ray is "winning" the content wars, but to the consumer, it's a matter of paying $500-$1000 for a potentially obsolete technology. Now if the broadcast flag gets passed and their 2 year old $5k plasma all of a sudden doesn't work anymore, that'll make matters even worse.

3) Crippling DRM. We know that DRM probably helped kill SACD and DVD-Audio. DVD content protection was good enough to "keep honest people honest," but the new scheme goes far beyond that. This BD+ thing especially is worrisome. What if you bought a first generation Apex Blu Ray player, which subsequently gets 'hacked' by the hacker community. Will second generation Blu Ray disks refuse to play on your machine? What about people who use Linux or other open source OS's? Are they going to be locked out from playing high def DVDs?

4) cost. Ok, maybe Blu-Ray can sneak in the back door using the PS3 to infiltrate homes, but who really used the PS2 for watching DVD movies? These things will cost a bundle when they come out. Compared with a $30 dvd player, will consumers really opt for a machine potentially THIRTY TIMES as expensive? The media itself, movies and tv compilations, will probably be around 1.5 to twice as expensive as DVD media. There might be a "good enough" factor here in favor of DVDs.
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post #2 of 104 Old 10-15-2005, 01:38 AM
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BR/HD disc of some sort will happen with success. But yes it will be slow to roll out like most other advances in A/V equipment and content. people don't "clamor" for news in hd as it is not entertainment. more and more content available will drive the hdtv and ramp up sales, this will be true of BR/HD also. I've got over 20 season passes in my hd tivo set for HD shows. And more and more sports are going HD too.
and the cost will be high for first/early adapters as always, but it will drop fast like it always does with tech. I paid $1000 for a VHS recorder in the late 70's, $700 for a standard Yamaha CD player in the 80's, $500 for a DVD player in the 90's, and $800 for a HD tivo dvr in Feb 2005. You can get a VHS/DVD combo for under $100 now and hell the hd tivo has dropped $500 in one year.

BR/HD or some other sort will do just fine, give it time since it is still months away from sale in the US.

HD HD HD I Need more HD, Yes I am a HD Addict :)
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post #3 of 104 Old 10-15-2005, 01:46 AM
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At this point in time any HDTV DVD format is goimg to near fail, it will be a hit with folks like us, but lets face it, how much of the market are we??

Joe sixpack already thinks DVD is HD when viewing it on his HDTV display, this is no joke

HD/Blu will not be big for another 6 to 8 years minimum

Current DVD is good enough for 90% of the world and even lots of folks like us

Over at the Home Theater Forum go read about it, lots of folks over there even say DVD is good enough for them

DVD sucks bad, too bad more folks(Joe six packs) don't realize this :)

-Gary
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post #4 of 104 Old 10-16-2005, 01:22 PM
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I feel no sense of urgency to go with either HD-DVD, or Blu-Ray.

I'm willing to watch the format battle unfold for up to several years, if need be, before making a purchase.
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post #5 of 104 Old 10-16-2005, 06:30 PM
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I bet they said similar things about airplanes and that new fangled horseless carriage as well. Don't forget that 64K of RAM is all anyone will ever need.

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post #6 of 104 Old 10-17-2005, 12:39 AM
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I doubt that any HD disc format will 'replace' DVDs, except perhaps in many years from now; there is nothing 'wrong' with the DVD format to 90% or more of the public. (Similar to the situation with CDs, only the percentage of satisfied customers may be more like 98%, including me.) HD disc players will much more likely be a 'niche format' the way Laser Discs were for almost two decades.

There may be a lesson here: 20 years after LV arrived, DVDs came along and caught the public's attention as Laser never did, and then DVDs (using all of the hard-won advances of the LD community) actually raised the public's standards for movie video quality-maybe the 'second version' of HD movie discs will become a mainstream product, ten years down the road. Perhaps the 'big breakthrough' of this second-generation HD disc format (DVD's breakthroughs were size and price) will be lack of crippling DRM... I can imagine telling my friends about my HD discs in a couple of years or so, and hearing them say "Yeah, the picture is nice, but everyone I know that tried them had a bunch of problems connecting the player or seeing half the movies they tried-I m not going to mess with it, but I know it's easy for you because you do all that tech stuff."

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post #7 of 104 Old 10-17-2005, 04:25 AM
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thats it Chris, folks are NOT going to tolerate all this DRM bull-****, I for one know that I won't stand for phone lines and all that other garbage that has been mentioned

I enjoy recording up to 2 HDTV movies every day, so I am not in a hurry to pick up these DRM riddled formats

lots of the folks that would be in line first day also are already recording HDTV content like me

I look forward to these upcoming formats as PC storage soultions only, at this point in time

-Gary
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post #8 of 104 Old 10-17-2005, 08:41 AM
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good initial post.

i see only a "hybrid disc" (dvd/hd-dvd or or dvd/brd) as something that could *possibly* allow either technology to get marginal traction in the retail marketplace.

DVD's are about movies & people watch them in living rooms, how many people actually use their computer drives to sit and watch movies- Bluray's Andy Parsons
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post #9 of 104 Old 10-17-2005, 09:31 AM
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Actually, I think it's the hybrid players/recorders that will succeed. In fact as a PC storage device it's impossible to find a DVD device that doesn't handle DVD+ and DVD- formats as well as all CD formats. Once combo drives that handles both HD-DVD, Blueray, AND all the DVD and CD formats comes out, then won't take long (probably less than a year) before they dominate the PC optical drive market.

Even so, I agree with the others who think that DRM is going to kill the format for movie distribution. There doesn't seem to be a pressing need to get the content in this format that's great enough to suffer through the headaches.

The general public will end up giving the entertainment industry a spanking by ignoring the products. Unfortunately, we all know that the studios will learn the wrong lesson from this, and probably end up blaming internet downloading for their bad business decisions.

-dwx

Quote:
Originally Posted by chinch
good initial post.

i see only a "hybrid disc" (dvd/hd-dvd or or dvd/brd) as something that could *possibly* allow either technology to get marginal traction in the retail marketplace.
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post #10 of 104 Old 10-17-2005, 10:30 AM
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While I agree that the HD DVD market is unlikely to make a signficent impact in the market for all the reasons mentioned already. I certainly feel that HD television will continue to grow in leaps and bounds. Most of the major networks are broadcasting many hours per night in HD and all NFL games along with a large number of college games are in HD. Baseball payoffs and the World Series along with NBA games and college basketball games are also becoming more prevalent. In other words, sports will drive the HDTV sales because men are the primary focus. As more and more households replace aging television sets, along with the mandated switch to digital broadcasting and with the drastically declining prices of HD sets, the choice will be a simple one for the majority of consumers. Also don't forget the powerful marketing strategies of the cable companies and satellite folks. They will use their HD equipment as a powerful sales tool. They already are.
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post #11 of 104 Old 10-17-2005, 10:45 AM
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How about MPEG-4 compression of HD on a standard 9 GB DVD?
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post #12 of 104 Old 10-17-2005, 11:02 AM
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Speaking for myself, current DVD's upsampled to 720P are perfectly adequate. Seeing as I paid only $60 CDN for an open box Sammy HD841, and am totally happy with it, then I cannot imagine spending the money for a HD DVD player. Well that is until they cost $150 or less. The other issue is of course having to buy a new library of DVD's. An idea I am truly repulsed by.
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post #13 of 104 Old 10-17-2005, 11:06 AM
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I think Blu-ray will be a successful profitable product. It will not be a mass market product like DVD but I don't believe that is required to be a success. Mercedes doesn't sell like Toyota but that doesn't mean Mercedes is not a success. The concerns about DRM won't hurt profitability and if usage as a result of DRM is not burdensome, consumers will accept it. The FUD regarding internet connections being required and other burdensome restrictions for users with HDCP compliant displays better not be part of the final product or it could be a bust.

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post #14 of 104 Old 10-17-2005, 11:10 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jmhm2003
Speaking for myself, current DVD's upsampled to 720P are perfectly adequate. Seeing as I paid only $60 CDN for an open box Sammy HD841, and am totally happy with it, then I cannot imagine spending the money for a HD DVD player. Well that is until they cost $150 or less. The other issue is of course having to buy a new library of DVD's. An idea I am truly repulsed by.
I can watch DVDs in that manner as well and have no intention to replace my DVDs but the difference between DVD and HDTV is huge so adequate is relative to each individual.

Chris
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post #15 of 104 Old 10-17-2005, 11:43 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by donotremove
Now if the broadcast flag gets passed and their 2 year old $5k plasma all of a sudden doesn't work anymore, that'll make matters even worse.
The implementation of the Broadcast Flag, if and when, will not render anybodie's TV obsolete. All it does is to prevent distribution on the internet. It may also have some control of copy management but it is not going to prevent HD from flowing over a component analog interface. Never was part of the plan.
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post #16 of 104 Old 10-17-2005, 12:26 PM
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I am glad these debates come up. I was planing and then not planning to purchase a new 3910. I wanted to upgrade and simplify my system.have only a/v receiver+ dvd that also plays SACD. but was some what concerned about the"new" tech... coming along... i'm now back in...
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post #17 of 104 Old 10-17-2005, 12:26 PM
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Both formats could indeed fail.

Greed has fueled both sides and they simply refuse to look at what the consumer "really" wants.

Somewhere I see a dark horse coming from nowhere and becoming significant. That may be IPTV if broadband continues on it's path of Fibre and ADSL2++ (50 and 24Mbps speeds)

Frankly Hollywood hasn't really kicked out that many hits that I'm willing to pay $15 + for
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post #18 of 104 Old 10-17-2005, 12:49 PM
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Hybrid discs are a MUST. But, isn't that going to increase the cost? So are the studios going to offer hybrid discs and standard discs like they do now with SACD/DVDA?

VHS was noisy. Cassettes had a hiss, LPs had a background issues. DVDs are clear, they just don't carry the same definition as HDDVD/Bluray. Is this going to be enough of an advantage to swing the market?

I bet no.

Apple.com/trailers have started putting out HD trailers. If you can stream a 1080i movie preview then how far off are we from buying HD movies through the Internet and watching them from your harddisk? Streaming to your display via firewire?

If the HDDVD market doesn't catch on for another 10 years, what else will be available to the consumer then?

Jerry
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post #19 of 104 Old 10-17-2005, 01:52 PM - Thread Starter
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I'm also beginning to think that the new video iPods might also hurt sales. We already know that people can easily back up their DVDs using readily available software on the internet. And we also know that the iPods will support h.264 and Mpeg4 video. Although technically illegal in the USA, this might be the "killer app" for the video iPod, just as ripping CDs was the killer app for the original.

In any case, I think it's hard to argue that CDs weren't replaced by technologically-superior SACDs or DVD-audio thanks in no small part to the fact that CDs have no DRM and can be ripped to mp3 players.

So too, DVDs can be easily ripped to video iPods. BD or HD-DVD can't do that.
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post #20 of 104 Old 10-17-2005, 02:10 PM - Thread Starter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by digibal235
Hybrid discs are a MUST. But, isn't that going to increase the cost? So are the studios going to offer hybrid discs and standard discs like they do now with SACD/DVDA?

VHS was noisy. Cassettes had a hiss, LPs had a background issues. DVDs are clear, they just don't carry the same definition as HDDVD/Bluray. Is this going to be enough of an advantage to swing the market?

I bet no.

Apple.com/trailers have started putting out HD trailers. If you can stream a 1080i movie preview then how far off are we from buying HD movies through the Internet and watching them from your harddisk? Streaming to your display via firewire?

If the HDDVD market doesn't catch on for another 10 years, what else will be available to the consumer then?
Remember that guy Larry Ellison, head of Oracle? Some years ago, he claimed that PCs would be dead, and that sub-$500 Network computers would take it's place. This was when PCs were in the $2k-$5k range. Sounds pretty dumb now huh? The problem was that people WANTED to own their own PCs. Likewise they will WANT to own their own movie disks. In order for streaming movies over the internet to work, people will need a way to easily transfer them and back them up. I just can't imagine people paying DVD prices for a movie that they'll only get to play once, or that they can "lose" due to a hard drive failure.

It's really hard to look 10 years into the future. What I hope by that time is a completely different 1080p (or maybe even higher!) HD DVD, without massively crippling DRM, will be the de facto standard. And it better not force internet connectivity to operate! Hell, maybe someone will have developed holographic technology by that time, and we'll all be drooling about upcoming 3D-DVD :-D.
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post #21 of 104 Old 10-17-2005, 02:17 PM
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I have a feeling something new is coming....
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post #22 of 104 Old 10-17-2005, 02:43 PM
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I'd like to compare it somewhat to the SACD vs DVD-A gongshow.

I'm an idiot and will buy the first gen of each HD-DVD and BR, just like I did with SACD and DVD-A. 2 years later I have a combo player. The problem is that there is no real content out there, which I partially attribute to the format war.

The other portion is that you need a very compitent system to show you the difference bw/ SACD and DVD-A. The same is true with HD-DVD and BR. The differences will be subtle with a low-end small display, like the current batch of DLP and LCD RPTV's. But, as larger 1080p displays come along, you'll find that more people can tell the major difference, just like I can with my 110" CRT PJ.

I cant wait but I realize that my bank account will hurt because of it.....

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post #23 of 104 Old 10-17-2005, 03:00 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by telemike
How about MPEG-4 compression of HD on a standard 9 GB DVD?
i actually do that now for HDTV recordings.

and after taking some very good quality HDTV recordings and transcoding them to xvid with bitrates in the 5000-6000 range, i can't tell a difference between source and original (other than the resolution, i resize to 720p since i have a plasma tv).

i'd buy a dual layer dvd with mpeg4 HD content before buying a 25gb disk with mpeg2 HD content, but maybe that's just me...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jimbo Moran
I bet they said similar things about airplanes and that new fangled horseless carriage as well. Don't forget that 64K of RAM is all anyone will ever need.
if henry ford would've sold the automobile with a stipulation that you could only drive it to the bank on tuesdays, the grocery store on thursdays, and never to church on sundays, and he'd sue anyone who did any of the above, you'd still have a horse and cart. he would've failed like DVD-A and SACD have failed (and how HD DVDs will also fail).
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post #24 of 104 Old 10-17-2005, 03:22 PM
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DVD had three key things going for it that made it the success that it was/is: 1) form factor/ease-of-use -- they were comfortable to those familiar w/ CDs and were easy to take care of. only thing folks had to 'get used to' were menu navigation and that you couldn't record on them initially; 2) obvious and significant qualitative superiority/benefits over the previous formats (i.e. VHS, and yes, LD); and 3) a combination of fast market pentration/ubiquity and the price benefits that entailed (i.e. it got really cheap to buy in really fast). Being able to play them in your computer, your set-top, your car, your laptop, etc. with minimum expense meant you had affordable liquid entertainment.

High definition discs will have to repeat all of the above with joe public or it will fail to have anything like the success of its SD predecessor. The only one that's a lock is #1.

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post #25 of 104 Old 10-17-2005, 03:23 PM
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From what I've heard the new formats will use h.264 compression. A 2hr 1080p movie will only fill about 10GB of space.
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post #26 of 104 Old 10-17-2005, 03:27 PM
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What influence do you all think the PS3 will have on spreading the format? I know I'll certainly pick up a PS3 in the first few weeks, and--unless I'm mistaken--I'll have a de facto Blu-Ray player right there. Anyone know if Sony is still planning to make the PS3 be able to play Blu-Ray movies? Last I heard they were...

The PS2 certainly cracked the DVD market wide open in Japan, and I'm sure Sony is banking on the PS3 doing someting similar for Blu-Ray.

If all works out, I'll certainly start buying Blu-Ray movies once they're available.
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post #27 of 104 Old 10-17-2005, 03:32 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by telemike
How about MPEG-4 compression of HD on a standard 9 GB DVD?
HD-DVD-9, part of the overall HD-DVD spec, is basically that: an ordinary red laser DVD-9 (dual layer) with the HD-DVD logical format applied (e.g., new video codecs, new audio codecs, AACS, iHD, etc.). Warner, who has been working closely with MSFT on VC-1 encoding of their titles, very much wanted HD-DVD-9 (red laser HD-DVD) to be there day one.

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post #28 of 104 Old 10-17-2005, 03:32 PM
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Quote:
if henry ford would've sold the automobile with a stipulation that you could only drive it to the bank on tuesdays, the grocery store on thursdays, and never to church on sundays, and he'd sue anyone who did any of the above, you'd still have a horse and cart. he would've failed like DVD-A and SACD have failed (and how HD DVDs will also fail).
Your comparison is faulty, BluRay is saying nothing of the kind. A better comparison would be that your new Ford is going to require gasoline and not hay to get you from point A to point B. Aslo it won't be able to find it's way home by itself if you become seperated. And yeah, all those old saddles you bought for your horses will not work with the new Ford either.

You will still be welcome to drive your horse and buggy but I'll be passing you in the dust with my new Ford BluRay. :)

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post #29 of 104 Old 10-17-2005, 06:07 PM
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If you own a 40'' and up and you see a blu-ray or HD DVD, trust me you will buy them.
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post #30 of 104 Old 10-18-2005, 01:25 AM
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Please take this Blu-ray vs. HD-DVD poll, if you're interested.

I looked for previous polls but couldn't find any. Even this thread didn't turn up when I searched this forum for "blu-ray."

"In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. But in practice, there is." - Yogi Berra
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