The DVD Is Dying - Page 22 - AVS Forum
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post #631 of 1422 Old 09-04-2012, 03:24 PM
 
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Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

so why do you think physical media movies will die but not books?
dont make any sense.

When did I say physical media will die? You have to show me EXACTLY which post I said that in. . . good luck with that one!

Should I post for you the differnent dictionary descriptions for the words "die" and "dying?" Would it help you out to understand the difference?
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post #632 of 1422 Old 09-04-2012, 03:29 PM
 
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Originally Posted by Tulpa View Post

I think this might be another language misunderstanding thing. confused.gif
I posted about books because Lee brought up books. Ebooks are on the rise. But he'll still have print books to read.
That's all we've been saying about movies, too.

Ebooks cost money don't they?

My Library Card was free. I get to read all the new books and of course tons of older books for free.....NO CHARGE. Only costs me gas and wear and tear on my car but my closest library is less than 5 miles away.

EDIT:

Many of the books in my collection - even rare ones I found at garage sales, used book stores and when the library gets rid of it's extra copies.

My best find ever - at a Church selling used books - I bought Stuart Wood's very first book; CHIEFS . . . in mint condition for 50 cents. It's worth over $200.
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post #633 of 1422 Old 09-04-2012, 03:30 PM
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Tulpa don't worry, Im just enjoying all this.smile.gif It doesn't matter how bad my grammar is or how bad I interpret the comments, This is just fun biggrin.gif

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post #634 of 1422 Old 09-04-2012, 03:35 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

Why are people still buying REAL books and not just digital books?

LOL How many REAL book stores are still out there?

Ebooks sales have passed REAL books sales awhile ago....Go and read Tulpa post it says it all right there.
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post #635 of 1422 Old 09-04-2012, 03:36 PM
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well I have to go ,I have things to do.

I had a lot of fun on this thread.


Take care guys wink.gif

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post #636 of 1422 Old 09-04-2012, 03:37 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lee Stewart View Post

Ebooks cost money don't they?

Depends on the situation. This is a university library, so access is free to attending students, faculty, and staff. They can read at home without having to come to the actual building.

Or they can come in and use our computers, which is an increasing use of libraries in general. We rent out laptops, and are looking at renting out ereaders.

The advantage of an ebook with a proper license is remote access, easy updates to editions, and multiple users can read at the same time, rather than buying multiple copies (a big boon for classroom use, not to mention shelf space.)

And you can use your mobile phone. biggrin.gif

But we still have lots of print books, especially textbooks, because that's still a cash cow for publishers, who force professors to assign stuff. Textbook costs are actually getting out of hand, and some students can't afford them. We have a program to buy textbooks and have them available for short term loan for students who can't afford them. Very popular service.

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post #637 of 1422 Old 09-04-2012, 03:38 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Otter0911 View Post

LOL How many REAL book stores are still out there?
Ebooks sales have passed REAL books sales awhile ago....Go and read Tulpa post it says it all right there.

According to Harvard Business School - there is no stats for books sales:

http://asklib.library.hbs.edu/a.php?qid=173893

So how do you know Ebooks are outselling real books? Got some links I can look at?
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post #638 of 1422 Old 09-04-2012, 03:38 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lee Stewart View Post

Ebooks cost money don't they?
My Library Card was free. I get to read all the new books and of course tons of older books for free.....NO CHARGE. Only costs me gas and wear and tear on my car but my closest library is less than 5 miles away.
EDIT:
Many of the books in my collection - even rare ones I found at garage sales, used book stores and when the library gets rid of it's extra copies.
My best find ever - at a Church selling used books - I bought Stuart Wood's very first book; CHIEFS . . . in mint condition for 50 cents. It's worth over $200.

eek.gif swwweeettt
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post #639 of 1422 Old 09-04-2012, 03:39 PM
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Originally Posted by Lee Stewart View Post

According to Harvard Business School - there is no stats for books sales:
http://asklib.library.hbs.edu/a.php?qid=173893
So how do you know Ebooks are outselling real books? Got some links I can look at?

There was news stories awhile back on it....I will look
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post #640 of 1422 Old 09-04-2012, 03:43 PM
 
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Originally Posted by Tulpa View Post

Depends on the situation. This is a university library, so access is free to attending students, faculty, and staff. They can read at home without having to come to the actual building.
Or they can come in and use our computers, which is an increasing use of libraries in general.
The advantage of an ebook with a proper license is remote access, easy updates to editions, and multiple users can read at the same time, rather than buying multiple copies (a big boon for classroom use.)
And you can use your mobile phone. biggrin.gif

No restrictions on my library card other than the number of books I can get in one day (10). Just had to show a valid home address. I get to keep the books out for 3 weeks. 2 weeks for new books.

I can even look at the county library's inventory (all branches) online and have books shipped to my branch . . . free of charge.
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post #641 of 1422 Old 09-04-2012, 03:44 PM
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Heres a story from the UK...


Kindle ebook sales have overtaken Amazon print sales, says book seller

For every 100 hardback and paperback books it sells on its UK site, 114 ebooks are downloaded in 'reading renaissance'

http://www.guardian.co.uk/books/2012/aug/06/amazon-kindle-ebook-sales-overtake-print

I have read that it was true here in the US too... Amazon is now the largest book seller and I believe they announced that Kindle sales have past printed books here too...

Have to find that link
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post #642 of 1422 Old 09-04-2012, 03:51 PM
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Originally Posted by Lee Stewart View Post

No restrictions on my library card other than the number of books I can get in one day (10). Just had to show a valid home address. I get to keep the books out for 3 weeks. 2 weeks for new books.
I can even look at the county library's inventory (all branches) online and have books shipped to my branch . . . free of charge.

Yeah, LA public library does that, too. I think they may do it for DVDs, too, but I haven't looked into it (laziness.) I live one block from a branch, though, so I may see if they do. No Blu-rays, that I know of, though.

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post #643 of 1422 Old 09-04-2012, 03:55 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Otter0911 View Post

Heres a story from the UK...
Kindle ebook sales have overtaken Amazon print sales, says book seller
For every 100 hardback and paperback books it sells on its UK site, 114 ebooks are downloaded in 'reading renaissance'
http://www.guardian.co.uk/books/2012/aug/06/amazon-kindle-ebook-sales-overtake-print
I have read that it was true here in the US too... Amazon is now the largest book seller and I believe they announced that Kindle sales have past printed books here too...
Have to find that link

That's Amazon.

You will have to find a link that says ALL Ebook sales have surpassed ALL real book sales from ALL Ebook/real book retailers. I don't see how you could accomplish that according to that HBS article.
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post #644 of 1422 Old 09-04-2012, 03:55 PM
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Originally Posted by Lee Stewart View Post

When did I say physical media will die? You have to show me EXACTLY which post I said that in. . . good luck with that one!
Should I post for you the differnent dictionary descriptions for the words "die" and "dying?" Would it help you out to understand the difference?

sorry i must have confused you with someone else.
i thought you said physical media would disappear entirely in 3 years.
my bad.
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post #645 of 1422 Old 09-04-2012, 03:55 PM
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Originally Posted by Tulpa View Post

Yeah, LA public library does that, too. I think they may do it for DVDs, too, but I haven't looked into it (laziness.) I live one block from a branch, though, so I may see if they do. No Blu-rays, that I know of, though.

Its nice here in Michigan you can search the database for the whole state and have them send it to your local branch....books, dvds and cds smile.gif
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post #646 of 1422 Old 09-04-2012, 03:57 PM
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Originally Posted by Lee Stewart View Post

That's Amazon.
You will have to find a link that says ALL Ebook sales have surpassed ALL real book sales from ALL Ebook/real book retailers. I don't see how you could accomplish that according to that HBS article.

There is multi news stories from the UK I think I was wrong about the US though
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post #647 of 1422 Old 09-04-2012, 04:02 PM
 
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Originally Posted by Tulpa View Post

Yeah, LA public library does that, too. I think they may do it for DVDs, too, but I haven't looked into it (laziness.) I live one block from a branch, though, so I may see if they do. No Blu-rays, that I know of, though.

When I was living in Tamarac, FL . . my goodness what a great library system Broward County had. The Tamarac branch was the newest branch in the system. They had over 5000 DVDs for rent (free) and actually got new releases when they came out. It was 5 blocks from my home. I was there at least 3X a week EVERY week. They also had a large slection of used books that people donated - either $1, $2 or $3 depending on the publishing date (newer was more expensive).

When I was selling for Wurth Products, my favorite time killer between appointments was to go to the nearest library branch and look at their selection of new and used books or just read a magazine.
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post #648 of 1422 Old 09-04-2012, 04:07 PM
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When I was selling for Wurth Products, my favorite time killer between appointments was to go to the nearest library branch and look at their selection of new and used books or just read a magazine.

Yeah, we still keep popular magazines in print for that reason. We also have bestsellers on loan from various publishers. Some people just like to come in, chill, and read.

For serious study, though, most prefer the ebook. Here, at least.

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post #649 of 1422 Old 09-04-2012, 04:09 PM
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Now that we are on topic about streaming movies, what type of bit rates do various streaming companies use for standard and HD content.

The bit rates for streaming from Amazon are kind of pitiful!
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post #650 of 1422 Old 09-04-2012, 04:16 PM
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Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

Mr Lee Stewart - is 3d dying? LOL.



I'm still waiting for Hondo to come out in 3d video!
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post #651 of 1422 Old 09-04-2012, 04:33 PM
 
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sorry i must have confused you with someone else.
i thought you said physical media would disappear entirely in 3 years.
my bad.

OK smile.gif

You wanted me to take a stand right? I will give you my best guesstimate. . .

Physical Media will never be replaced (100%) by EST/VOD/SVOD. What many have proved here is that niche formats exist today. Hell - the best know niche format existed for over 20 years with just 1 to 2 million housholds having the equipment to play them . . . Laserdisc. And that was with only two companies producing them; Pioneer and Image Entertainment. (USA)

They say BD will be the last optical disc format. But that doesn't mean it will be the last Physical Media format. There will always be a segment of the market that wants to buy Physical Media. It may just generate $2 to $4 billion in sales per year - enough to keep Hollywood interested in supporting PM formats and for companies to maybe try to develop a new format that is revolutionary like DVD was over VHS with hopes that lightening may strike twice.

Hollywood today says that they believe UV will spur OD sales. You have to buy an OD to get the UV copy. That is the reason why UV was created. To try to stop the negative numbers that OD has been turning out every year since 2006. BD just hasn't done it nor does it look like it will. It's growth rate is slowing considerably - from 70% in 2009 to 68% in 2010 to 20% in 2011 (sales). Many feel it will be at 15% or less for 2012. For 2013, it may hit negative growth. DVD, the fastest selling consumer electronics product ever hit negative growth in sales only 9 years after it was released.
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post #652 of 1422 Old 09-04-2012, 04:39 PM
 
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Originally Posted by J_Palmer_Cass View Post

I'm still waiting for Hondo to come out in 3d video!

They are FINALLY releasing catalog 3D movies. This year we will see:

CREATURE FROM THE BLACK LAGOON
DIAL M FOR MURDER

And WB is promising the Vincent Price HOUSE OF WAX

From 1953 to 1990 there are maybe 100 3D movies that were made (decent quality and production). They have to start getting them released. The problem is the transfer cost - double what a regular movie costs to transfer due to the two 35mm film elements needed for 3D versus one for 2D.
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post #653 of 1422 Old 09-04-2012, 04:51 PM
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Originally Posted by Lee Stewart View Post

OK smile.gif
You wanted me to take a stand right? I will give you my best guesstimate. . .
Physical Media will never be replaced (100%) by EST/VOS/SVOD. What many have proved here is that niche formats exist today. Hell - the best know niche format existed for over 20 years with just 1 to 2 million housholds having the equipment to play them . . . Laserdisc. And that was with only two companies producing them; Pioneer and Image Entertainment. (USA)
They say BD will be the last optical disc format. But that doesn't mean it will be the last Physical Media format. There will always be a segment of the market that wants to buy Physical Media. It may just generate $2 to $4 billion in sales per year - enough to keep Hollywood interested in supporting PM formats and for companies to maybe try to develop a new format that is revolutionary like DVD was over VHS with hopes that lightening may strike twice.
Hollywood today says that they believe UV will spur OD sales. You have to buy an OD to get the UV copy. That is the reason why UV was created. To try to stop the negative numbers that OD has been turning out every year since 2006. BD just hasn't done it nor does it look like it will. It's growth rate is slowing considerably - from 70% in 2009 to 68% in 2010 to 20% in 2011 (sales). Many feel it will be at 15% or less for 2012. For 2013, it may hit negative growth. DVD, the fastest selling consumer electronics product ever hit negative growth in sales only 9 years after it was released.

lol.
i agree with everything you wrote.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lee Stewart View Post

They are FINALLY releasing catalog 3D movies. This year we will see:
CREATURE FROM THE BLACK LAGOON
DIAL M FOR MURDER
And WB is promising the Vincent Price HOUSE OF WAX
From 1953 to 1990 there are maybe 100 3D movies that were made (decent quality and production). They have to start getting them released. The problem is the transfer cost - double what a regular movie costs to transfer due to the two 35mm film elements needed for 3D versus one for 2D.

Creature From the Black Lagoon is the one Im most excited about. I have it preorderd from Amazon UK.

Also Avatar being released next month
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post #655 of 1422 Old 09-04-2012, 05:13 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lee Stewart View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by J_Palmer_Cass View Post

I'm still waiting for Hondo to come out in 3d video!

They are FINALLY releasing catalog 3D movies. This year we will see:

CREATURE FROM THE BLACK LAGOON
DIAL M FOR MURDER

And WB is promising the Vincent Price HOUSE OF WAX

From 1953 to 1990 there are maybe 100 3D movies that were made (decent quality and production). They have to start getting them released. The problem is the transfer cost - double what a regular movie costs to transfer due to the two 35mm film elements needed for 3D versus one for 2D.


Even though I have a 3D Bluray player and a 3D television, I think the creature is a good movie to stream into the depths of the black lagoon!


Creature in the Black Lagoon
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post #656 of 1422 Old 09-04-2012, 05:33 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tulpa View Post

Yeah, we still keep popular magazines in print for that reason. We also have bestsellers on loan from various publishers. Some people just like to come in, chill, and read.
For serious study, though, most prefer the ebook. Here, at least.

I believe 3-5Mbps but it depends on your connection speed (it could be higher or lower). Also keep in mind the bitrate is not variable for many of the streaming offerings like Netflix. It is fixed unlike Blu-Ray or DVD where many movies have peaks to account for scenes that require higher bitrate to reduce macro blocking. Not sure how Vudu works, they may be using variable bitrare and their HDX is certainly higher quality, but you pay a lot more. Factoring in the two day Redbox rental charge for a newer release you pay about double for worse quality.
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post #657 of 1422 Old 09-04-2012, 05:40 PM
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Not sure how Vudu works, they may be using variable bitrare and their HDX is certainly higher quality, but you pay a lot more. Factoring in the two day Redbox rental charge for a newer release you pay about double for worse quality.

Depends on the movie. Latest HDX releases are about $6, but they're on par with most VOD. Other movies can be a couple dollars cheaper.

You also get a 99¢ movie every day, varying in terms of how old it is (some are 50s, some are very recent.)

Redbox can be up to $2 for Blu-rays per day. That can be close to a VUDU movie, depending on what you're looking for. VUDU also has many $2 for two day deals. You can pick and choose, no one is forcing you to rent the $6 movies every time. And the selection creams Redbox six ways from Sunday, unless you're only after the newest release BDs at the absolute lowest rental price.

They're also a dollar cheaper for HD (720p), which still makes up a significant number of flat panels still out there in use. And another $1 cheaper for SD, which is what is available on PC viewing, another significant block of customers.


And I think you meant to quote someone else.

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post #658 of 1422 Old 09-04-2012, 05:41 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lee Stewart View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

sorry i must have confused you with someone else.
i thought you said physical media would disappear entirely in 3 years.
my bad.

OK smile.gif

You wanted me to take a stand right? I will give you my best guesstimate. . .

Physical Media will never be replaced (100%) by EST/VOD/SVOD. What many have proved here is that niche formats exist today. Hell - the best know niche format existed for over 20 years with just 1 to 2 million housholds having the equipment to play them . . . Laserdisc. And that was with only two companies producing them; Pioneer and Image Entertainment. (USA)

They say BD will be the last optical disc format. But that doesn't mean it will be the last Physical Media format. There will always be a segment of the market that wants to buy Physical Media. It may just generate $2 to $4 billion in sales per year - enough to keep Hollywood interested in supporting PM formats and for companies to maybe try to develop a new format that is revolutionary like DVD was over VHS with hopes that lightening may strike twice.

Hollywood today says that they believe UV will spur OD sales. You have to buy an OD to get the UV copy. That is the reason why UV was created. To try to stop the negative numbers that OD has been turning out every year since 2006. BD just hasn't done it nor does it look like it will. It's growth rate is slowing considerably - from 70% in 2009 to 68% in 2010 to 20% in 2011 (sales). Many feel it will be at 15% or less for 2012. For 2013, it may hit negative growth. DVD, the fastest selling consumer electronics product ever hit negative growth in sales only 9 years after it was released.


Optical media sales do drop off for common sense reasons.

For music new CDs I replaced some of my "classic" vinyl records, meaning the albums that I can still listen to. After that replacement was made, on a yearly basis I have not bought that many more contemporary CDs. A lot of other people did the same thing at the same time.

For video I went from nothing to BETA to VHS tapes. One way or the other I have upgraded most of my video tapes to DVD, and you can be sure that I will not "upgrade" my DVDs to Bluray. Most DVDs played back at 1080 25 or 60P look just fine on my 55" television. I am sure that a lot of peaople feel teh same way as I do.

I have no intention of buying the same movies in a different format ever again (with minor exceptions). I still have a few VHS tapes that need to be converted to DVD, but they never look as good as a DVD or a copy from cable. Still, I want to get my VHS tape selection down to zero this year.

The popularity of cable television has also cut into movie sales as well as rentals.

A kind of interesting factoid is that I only own one Bluray movie. That would be the movie Zulu.
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post #659 of 1422 Old 09-04-2012, 06:00 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tulpa View Post

Depends on the movie. Latest HDX releases are about $6, but they're on par with most VOD. Other movies can be a couple dollars cheaper.
You also get a 99¢ movie every day, varying in terms of how old it is (some are 50s, some are very recent.)
Redbox can be up to $2 for Blu-rays per day. That can be close to a VUDU movie, depending on what you're looking for. VUDU also has many $2 for two day deals. You can pick and choose, no one is forcing you to rent the $6 movies every time. And the selection creams Redbox six ways from Sunday, unless you're only after the newest release BDs at the absolute lowest rental price.
They're also a dollar cheaper for HD (720p), which still makes up a significant number of flat panels still out there in use. And another $1 cheaper for SD, which is what is available on PC viewing, another significant block of customers.
And I think you meant to quote someone else.

That is what Netflix Blu-Ray disc rental is for smile.gif

I supplement Netflix with Redbox as Redbox is easier to get new releases. With the number if movies we get every month my typical Blu-Ray rental from Netflix works out to be $1-2 per rental depending on how many movies we get that month. My account is on hold though because I have been scoring used Blu-Rays for around $3 per copy thanks to the huge Go Hastings sales the last few months on used movies.
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post #660 of 1422 Old 09-04-2012, 06:03 PM
 
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My 2nd favorite movie of all time is Blade Runner (1st is Lawrence of Arabia). There is a line in the movie that rings so true . . .

"The light that burns twice as bright, burns half as long"

In February of 1997, the HV market was totally dominated by VHS. LD was barely a footnote. 1996 EOY numbers for the HV market was approx $11B for VHS sales and rentals combined.

At the end of 2006, the HV market - due to the phenomenal success of DVD - had grown to a total of $24.1B. $16.6B in DVD sales, $7.5B in DVD rentals. 2006 was also the year that Hollywood stopped releasing movies on VHS.

At the end of 2011, just 5 years later, the total HV market for OD was $8.95B for OD sales and $5.67B for OD rentals - a total of $14.62B. The market had lost $9.48B in total revenue, most of it coming from sales ($7.65B). Of the $8.95B in OD sales, $6.7B was generated by DVD. The remaining $2.25B came from BD.

Is DVD dying? Doesn't the above prove that it is? But what we are not seeing is a "Chinese Money" game. It isn't a case of DVD revenue moving into another HV category on a $1 to $1 basis. Some has moved to the BD category. Total Digital Revenue (WITHOUT SVOD) for 2011 was $2.425B. I am in the camp that says SVOD should not be counted because they don't count HBO, Cinemax or Starz in the HV numbers and all of them are OTT (Over The Top) charges. You have to have a service before you can get them. Just like you have to have internet service before you can get Netflix or Amazon or Hulu. Netflix doesn't cost just $7.99. You have to add your IP cost, in my case: $50 a month.

The total without SVOD for 2011 is $17.045B. Oh . . BTW . . . for VOD . . . every single Wrestling PPV event is counted in that total. Not sure everyone knew that.

So where did all the missing money go? It went to other forms of entertainment like video games. Or people have replaced watching movies with other forms of entertainment like Twitter and other social networking apps.

It wouldn't surprise me in the least if 4 years from now, the end of 2015, the HV market sheds another $4.5B getting it back to where it was at the end of 1999 - $12.8B

"The light that burns twice as bright, burns half as long"
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