The DVD Is Dying - Page 7 - AVS Forum
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post #181 of 1422 Old 09-01-2012, 08:57 AM - Thread Starter
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Originally Posted by ack_bk View Post

Ah yes another optical disc is dead article.. Been seeing these every year for the past 5 years or so. Let's look at the numbers...
Last year revenue for home video spending per the DEG breaks down roughly to the following:
$14.5B for optical disc rental and sell-through for digital
$3.4B for digital (includes streaming, VOD, sell-through, etc)
With the bulk of the digital revenue coming from rental (VOD, streaming, etc). Anyone see that optical disc is dead here? Buehler? At the current pace digital is growing it is going to be a long time, and some form of physical media may be here to stay.
As far as quality and options goes, let me know when digital can meet what optical disc does now (PQ, AQ, special features, subtitles, etc). And really let me know when it actually builds on what Blu-Ray does. I mean exceeds the quality. Otherwise, optical disc is the way to go for price and performance. I readily buy brand new Blu-Ray movies for $7-10 frequently and used ones on average of about $3 during sales. I sometimes splurge and pay over $20 for a movie but it is few and far between. And that price often includes a Blu-Ray, a DVD, and a digital copy...
As for rentals, Redbox and Netflix offer Blu-Ray rental at great pricing. Better quality for a cheaper price? I will take it.
As for digital, there has been improvement along the way. Vudu HDX actually looks and sounds pretty good, but it is very pricey to rent from and Blu-Ray still offers better overall PQ and AQ for a much cheaper rental price.
I actually thought about this a lot this year and decided to continue to build my Blu-Ray library as I don't see digital matching or exceeding Blu-Ray qualiity anytime soon. For many of these movies this may be the best they look and sound, and have special features in my lifetime.
Ultraviolet shows promise but still lacks support from Disney and, more importantly, Apple, and the service is still fragmented and difficult to navigate.
I just don't see any scenario where optical disc is dead in less than 5 years. 10 years? Maybe, but that is probably a stretch too.
Oh, and one more thing. Per Nielsenscan only 2% of viewing in the home in 2011 is done via the Internet.... 2% folks...
http://www.internetvideoarchive.com/IVA/blog/all-categories/research/2012/05/15/tv-viewing-habits-according-to-nielsen

See post #40 on page 2.
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post #182 of 1422 Old 09-01-2012, 09:10 AM
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Originally Posted by benes View Post

Anyone who has used Netflix knows what it would be like to have instant access to every tv show and movie you want on any device you want.
Every? You must have far different tastes in entertainment than me. I can't count the number of times I've tried to look up something on Netflix, only to be informed it was only available on DVD (older Netflix) or not appear on my search at all (newer).

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post #183 of 1422 Old 09-01-2012, 09:28 AM
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Originally Posted by benes View Post

I'm not even talking about streaming per se. I'm talking about OWNING physical copies of movies. Its completely pointless.
I could probably name hundreds, if not thousands of titles that are/were never made available on newer formats and some that were never available on any for-purchase format. That is one reason I still have VHS tapes and DVDs, although in the former case, I've been slowly going through my collection and converting it to digital format.

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post #184 of 1422 Old 09-01-2012, 09:47 AM
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Originally Posted by Lee Stewart View Post

Hate to sound like a broken record, but . . . it will not be YEARS. It is coming soon. As early as next year due to the new codec H.265.
Lee, I think you are being overly optimistic. Codecs don't magically "take over", despite any so-called superiority. That is/was the case with h.264 and will also be the case with h.265.

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post #185 of 1422 Old 09-01-2012, 10:11 AM
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Originally Posted by Lee Stewart View Post

In a blind test do you really believe you could tell the difference?

Anyone know if Dolby Digital Plus is throwing out sub 20hz bass? The past few years have seen an explosion of relatively inexpensive subwoofers that can extend well below 20hz and we are seeing more and more sub 20hz content.

I have always wondered this. My sub, with room gain can play relatively flat to 16hz from the seating position (measured).
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post #186 of 1422 Old 09-01-2012, 10:25 AM
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Originally Posted by rliebherr View Post

See post #40 on page 2.

I don't fully trust those PWC estimates. A couple of reasons and the DEG data supports this. Netflix is the big driver for streaming revenue and it is simply not growing fast enough to make up for the lost optical disc revenue. Did you know that optical disc customers are more profitable for Netflix than a streaming customer?

As for digital movie sales, if you look at DEG numbers, growth is alread slowing. I know people will point to lack of a digital sales delivery system (I guess it is UV), but UV is definitely not a sure thing without Apple and Disney and even then I find the service to be fragmented and cumbersome to use, and I am sure many others do to.

Look at the huge explosion of iTunes video capable devices (iPad, iPhone, Macs, Windows devices, AppleTV) and this has not resulted in large growth over the past 3 years for digital sales. DEG reported digital sales up just 8% 2010 to 2011 even after adding all those millions of devices! Growth is slowing year over year for digital too. The bulk of digital revenue comes from steaming and VOD which is bad news for studios if consumers continue to shift from buying to cheap rentals.

The PWC numbers seem way to generous. We would need to start seeing massive growth for digital sales for this to happen. I guess we will see end of year this year, but Netfli numbers have been lackluster this year and UV, I doubt, is going to add much this year. Perhaps iTunes will see massive growth but that has not been the case in previous years for home video revenue.
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post #187 of 1422 Old 09-01-2012, 10:32 AM
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I wonder what the costs are for the production of the optical disc and their distribution compared to storing/serving up that movie digitally....wonder where the magic $ point is for the original content owner? Also wonder what the history has been of compensation to those participating in profits for optical format vs digital....

the cost of production and distribution is fractions of a dollar. The cost is mainly studio profit and dealer markup. The problem here is dealer mark-up I think. It would be extremely easy to sell movies internet direct, and it would be cheaper for the consumer and more profitable for the studios.

And when the ISP rates for broadband content start to cost you to download? The cost of production and distribution is how much, though, optical disc as compared to digitial? Fraction of a dollar is meaningless 99/100 is a fraction of a dollar just as 1/100 is. Is there a different compensation scale one format to the other going back to the people who had a piece of the original movie (theater revenue, disc revenue and streaming revenue I would think are all differently based but I'm not sure).

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post #188 of 1422 Old 09-01-2012, 10:41 AM
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Originally Posted by cctvtech View Post

Lee, I think you are being overly optimistic. Codecs don't magically "take over", despite any so-called superiority. That is/was the case with h.264 and will also be the case with h.265.

Well there is also no guarantee that studios will use new codecs for anything more than a space save and will continue to give you subpar PQ/AQ to what Blu-Ray gives you today.
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post #189 of 1422 Old 09-01-2012, 10:59 AM
 
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Originally Posted by cctvtech View Post

Lee, I think you are being overly optimistic. Codecs don't magically "take over", despite any so-called superiority. That is/was the case with h.264 and will also be the case with h.265.

Really? Then you have missed the fact that MPEG2 has been replaced by MPEG4 when it comes to HD content. Hey - you snooze, you lose.
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post #190 of 1422 Old 09-01-2012, 11:08 AM
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Originally Posted by cctvtech View Post

Every? You must have far different tastes in entertainment than me. I can't count the number of times I've tried to look up something on Netflix, only to be informed it was only available on DVD (older Netflix) or not appear on my search at all (newer).

Exactly. With the loss of Starz, one could argue that Netflix content quality has decreasd, not increased as they added more subscribers.

Truth be told, Warner has been very clear on what type of content Netflix streaming will have. Mostly the stuff that Warner cannot monetize through other channels such as certain TV shows and lower tiered movies.

Very few tent pole titles or major new releases are available on Netflix for streaming, at least that was my experience prior to dropping them. And Netflix just lost exclusive rights to stream Epix (Paramount, Lions Gate, MGM) titles that they have enjoyed for the last two years. This opens the door to competitors to get a better streaming deal (right now it is a 90 day delay for Redbox to stream Epix content). If say Amazon ponies up and gets rights to stream for the first 90 days of release Netflix users may switch..
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post #191 of 1422 Old 09-01-2012, 11:15 AM
 
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Originally Posted by ack_bk View Post

Anyone know if Dolby Digital Plus is throwing out sub 20hz bass? The past few years have seen an explosion of relatively inexpensive subwoofers that can extend well below 20hz and we are seeing more and more sub 20hz content.
I have always wondered this. My sub, with room gain can play relatively flat to 16hz from the seating position (measured).

Name me movies that were mixed with below 20Hz bass. Remember - the lossless audio comes directly from the studio master.
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post #192 of 1422 Old 09-01-2012, 11:23 AM
 
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Exactly. With the loss of Starz, one could argue that Netflix content quality has decreasd, not increased as they added more subscribers.

Key word . . . added

So the selection and quality of the content is not affecting their ability to add streaming subs.
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Truth be told, Warner has been very clear on what type of content Netflix streaming will have. Mostly the stuff that Warner cannot monetize through other channels such as certain TV shows and lower tiered movies.

That's one studio. What about the others? Majors and minors.
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Very few tent pole titles or major new releases are available on Netflix for streaming, at least that was my experience prior to dropping them. And Netflix just lost exclusive rights to stream Epix (Paramount, Lions Gate, MGM) titles that they have enjoyed for the last two years. This opens the door to competitors to get a better streaming deal (right now it is a 90 day delay for Redbox to stream Epix content). If say Amazon ponies up and gets rights to stream for the first 90 days of release Netflix users may switch..

LOL - we have been hearing about the "Amazon Threat" for quite some time now and you know what? It hasn't happened. They have been buying the same kind of content Netflix buys. . . old TV shows.

Anyone who thinks they are going to get new movies for $8 a movie is out of touch with reality. You can't even get HBO or Starz (at least you can't in ABQ, NM) for $8 a month.

Hey Ack - try finding an all-you-can-eat resturant that serves steak and lobster for $2.99 per person. Good luck!
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post #193 of 1422 Old 09-01-2012, 11:26 AM
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Originally Posted by benes View Post

I already paid again for the DVD and the Blu-ray so why would this be any different? I really don't re-watch movies anymore unless they are available in better quality. It took me a while but I've realized there is no point in "owning" anything anymore. There is always something better around the corner.
And the bandwidth issues are only a bump in the road. We are in the middle of a messy transition that will take a few years to iron out. Lets not forget that the internet is not that old.
And lets also not forget that all this talk of streaming is nothing new. People were predicting this in the 90s back when we were on dial-up and had never even heard of the word broadband. It seemed inconceivable then but not so much now.
We used to get books, computer software, and music on physical media too but no one on this forum thinks twice about downloading them now. But when it comes to movies we still want pieces of plastic. We should worry about the quality of the content itself not the medium it comes on. The only thing that's been holding back high quality movie downloads is the bandwidth and that situation is changing rapidly. Though it might get worse before it gets better...

When I see many people that are doing good to get 3Mb broadband and areas of the country that can only get Dialup I wonder how anybody can think Streaming is going to replace Physical media.

I just answered a post today on a tech forum from a member that bought a used movie and did not realize that since it was a BluRay it wouldn't read in his DVD player or computer drive. They never heard of BluRay and thought it was a type of DVD.

I still see posts on a video forum from members looking to make the file size smaller on their video files. Typical comments, I don't care about the quality I just want to make the file smaller. How do I do it, OH BTW can you suggest a one click wonder to do it in batch mode.

This is the great majority of the people out there and what they know. When they have to replace that old blurry SDTV they'll buy based on cheapest price. Last week that was a local Supermarket 32" HDTV @ $199.99

Anybody think they'll care about a 4K display? Sorry to burst anybodies bubble here, The majority as I see it aren't buying the latest and greatest 1080p 3D 60" or 72" HDTV. They are buying cheap.

Cheers
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post #194 of 1422 Old 09-01-2012, 11:27 AM
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Originally Posted by Lee Stewart View Post

Name me movies that were mixed with below 20Hz bass. Remember - the lossless audio comes directly from the studio master.

168 pages smile.gif.

Enjoy
http://www.avsforum.com/t/1333462/the-new-master-list-of-bass-in-movies-with-frequency-charts

Black Hawk down was my favorite. 7hz content that I was able to hear in a home theater that could play down to 5hz. Crazy stuff and you can really feel the sub 20hz content.
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post #195 of 1422 Old 09-01-2012, 11:39 AM - Thread Starter
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When I see many people that are doing good to get 3Mb broadband and areas of the country that can only get Dialup I wonder how anybody can think Streaming is going to replace Physical media.
I just answered a post today on a tech forum from a member that bought a used movie and did not realize that since it was a BluRay it wouldn't read in his DVD player or computer drive. They never heard of BluRay and thought it was a type of DVD.
I still see posts on a video forum from members looking to make the file size smaller on their video files. Typical comments, I don't care about the quality I just want to make the file smaller. How do I do it, OH BTW can you suggest a one click wonder to do it in batch mode.
This is the great majority of the people out there and what they know. When they have to replace that old blurry SDTV they'll buy based on cheapest price. Last week that was a local Supermarket 32" HDTV @ $199.99
Anybody think they'll care about a 4K display? Sorry to burst anybodies bubble here, The majority as I see it aren't buying the latest and greatest 1080p 3D 60" or 72" HDTV. They are buying cheap.
Cheers
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I think you inadvertently argued against yourself there.
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post #196 of 1422 Old 09-01-2012, 11:51 AM
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Originally Posted by Lee Stewart View Post

In a blind test do you really believe you could tell the difference?
A blind test of EXACTLY WHAT?
If you are saying lossy vs. lossless, yeah, I can tell the difference on my equipment.

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post #197 of 1422 Old 09-01-2012, 11:54 AM
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DVD's been dead to me for a while, but BluRay, no way in hell! I will take BluRay any day over streaming. ANY DAY! Streaming is prone to quality drops, and usually DOES NOT even have a 5.1 soundtrack, let alone DTS MA 7.1!!! None of this would be a problem if instead of streaming, they would just let us PRE-DOWNLOAD the entire copy protected movie to watch ahead of time! Then there would be NO quality issue.

But the mass market is so stupid, they probably don't even notice that their "HD Streaming Movies" are in Stereo and don't even have half the quality of BluRay.

It's really a pet peeve of mine.
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post #198 of 1422 Old 09-01-2012, 12:00 PM
 
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A blind test of EXACTLY WHAT?
If you are saying lossy vs. lossless, yeah, I can tell the difference on my equipment.

Cough< BS >Cough rolleyes.gif
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post #199 of 1422 Old 09-01-2012, 12:02 PM
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If and when I can stream a movie and have it be indistinguishable from the best available (to the consumer) physical version and not worry about hitting bandwidth caps, then I will embrace streaming as my primary means of media consumption. As it stands, I only use it for non-critical viewing.

As to the 'you can't tell the difference' arguments, I have yet to hear a lossy track on my primary system that sounds indistinguishable from the lossless version. In many cases, I have had movies that defaulted to a lossy track and I could almost immediately hear that something was wrong. In fact we just rented Hunger Games (on disk) and during the opening sequence the sound was so poor I had to stop the disk and go in to the track selection, only to find no lossless track was on the rental disk. I understand and agree that in theory a properly done lossless version should be indistinguishable, but they must be adding additional sonic compression to the non-lossy tracks or else they are throwing away too much data.
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post #200 of 1422 Old 09-01-2012, 12:03 PM
 
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Originally Posted by Flavius View Post

DVD's been dead to me for a while, but BluRay, no way in hell! I will take BluRay any day over streaming. ANY DAY! Streaming is prone to quality drops, and usually DOES NOT even have a 5.1 soundtrack, let alone DTS MA 7.1!!! None of this would be a problem if instead of streaming, they would just let us PRE-DOWNLOAD the entire copy protected movie to watch ahead of time! Then there would be NO quality issue.
But the mass market is so stupid, they probably don't even notice that their "HD Streaming Movies" are in Stereo and don't even have half the quality of BluRay.
It's really a pet peeve of mine.

Why should they care? Most are watching their HD Streaming on 42" HDTVs sitting 12 feet from them using the TV's speakers.

I see many here are having difficulty seperating the niche Home Theater market from the majority Mass Market.
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post #201 of 1422 Old 09-01-2012, 12:14 PM
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Cough< BS >Cough rolleyes.gif
You really need a beer if you think some people can't hear the difference between lossy and lossless.
Now that I think about....make it 3.rolleyes.gif

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post #202 of 1422 Old 09-01-2012, 12:17 PM
 
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You really need a beer if you think some people can't hear the difference between lossy and lossless.
Now that I think about....make it 3.rolleyes.gif

Funny - that claim has been made by many. Yet when they were put into a blind test - they all failed. Right here at AVS. So boast all you want - many do that on the internet. tongue.gif
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post #203 of 1422 Old 09-01-2012, 12:24 PM
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All streaming is is charge out the a$$ for poor quality--that's what satellite TV does.

If I ruled the video universe compression would be against the law.

I'd rather have quality than a bunch of stations and I'd rather have quality in terms of a movie over lessor quality even if the film is brand new!

It always kills me when you hear the industry lickers around here always justifying lessor quality so someone can make money.

Democracy is for the birds and dictatorship by providers is for the birds!

The federal government should MAKE people have great quality video whether they like it or not!
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post #204 of 1422 Old 09-01-2012, 12:25 PM
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Originally Posted by Flavius View Post

But the mass market is so stupid, they probably don't even notice that their "HD Streaming Movies" are in Stereo and don't even have half the quality of BluRay.
It's really a pet peeve of mine.

One could argue they're not so stupid. As Lee points out, most have a smaller TV and use the speakers in it. Not everyone wants to spring for a surround sound setup, let alone a full blown HT.

Why would they need anything higher than the current HD and stereo streams? Yeah, blu-ray might have a touch better picture, but lossless audio would be a waste, and they may like the convenience of getting the stream immediately rather than schlepping to the nearest Redbox (which doesn't carry all blu-rays) or waiting for it to come in the mail.

We all have our priorities. Don't assume yours is the same as everyone else's. Be glad blu-ray is here at all for you.

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post #205 of 1422 Old 09-01-2012, 12:27 PM
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The federal government should MAKE people have great quality video whether they like it or not!

Easy there, Stalin. tongue.gif

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post #206 of 1422 Old 09-01-2012, 01:07 PM
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Be glad blu-ray is here at all for you.

Now who's talking like Stalin? rolleyes.gif
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post #207 of 1422 Old 09-01-2012, 01:27 PM
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Now who's talking like Stalin? rolleyes.gif

Not me. I'm talking about free market principles. The fact that we have a market for both streaming and disc niches is a wonder of democracy and a choice the companies have made to address both. They could just as easily have said screw you and just concentrated on streaming, seeing as blu-ray certainly isn't taking the mass market by storm.

You're the one who said "the mass market is so stupid." Trying to make decisions for the "stupid masses" is a Stalinist principle. Or a Saparmurat Niyazov principle if you want a more contemporary example.

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All streaming is is charge out the a$$ for poor quality--that's what satellite TV does.
If I ruled the video universe compression would be against the law.
I'd rather have quality than a bunch of stations and I'd rather have quality in terms of a movie over lessor quality even if the film is brand new!
It always kills me when you hear the industry lickers around here always justifying lessor quality so someone can make money.
Democracy is for the birds and dictatorship by providers is for the birds!
The federal government should MAKE people have great quality video whether they like it or not!

fa·nat·ic

noun

1. a person with an extreme and uncritical enthusiasm or zeal, as in religion or politics.
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post #209 of 1422 Old 09-01-2012, 01:34 PM
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post #210 of 1422 Old 09-01-2012, 01:42 PM
 
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