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post #1 of 537 Old 03-21-2007, 01:04 PM - Thread Starter
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Movies that grossed >$100 million (by distributor)

Underlined titles have either been released in a high-def format or have a specific release date.

A * means the title is from a neutral studio but is currently only available/scheduled on HD-DVD at this time

GREEN titles were once released on Blu-Ray but now only available on HD-DVD

2008 (13) - $125 million domestic box office required
Disney(Buena Vista) (2)NARNIA: Prince Caspian / WALL-E
Fox (1) Horton Hears a Who!
New Line (0)
Paramount (3)Iron Man / Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull/KUNG FU PANDA
Sony (1)Hancock
Warner (3)Sex and the City / Batman - The Dark Knight / Get Smart
Universal (3)The Incredible Hulk / WANTED / MAMMA MIA!

2007 (28)
Disney(Buena Vista) (5) - Wild Hogs / Pirates 3 - At Worlds End / Ratatouille / Enchanted / National Treasure
Fox (5) - Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer / Live Free or Die Hard / Simpsons Movie / Alvin & the Chipmunks / JUNO
New Line (2) - Hairspray / Rush Hour 3
Paramount (4) - Blades of Glory / Shrek the Third / Transformers / Bee Movie
Sony (3) - Ghost Rider / Spiderman 3 / SuperBad
Warner (4) - 300 / Ocean's 13 / HP5 - Order of the Phoenix / I Am Legend
Universal (5) - Knocked Up / Bourne Ultimatum / I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry / Evan Almighty / American Gangster

2006 (19)
Disney(Buena Vista) (2) - PotC2 / Cars
Fox (5) - Night at the Museum / X-Men: The Last Stand / Ice Age 2 / Borat / The Devil Wears Prada
Paramount (3) - Mission: Impossible III / Over the Hedge / Dreamgirls
Sony (5) - Click / The Da Vinci Code / Casino Royale / The Pursuit of Happyness / Talladega Nights
Warner (3) - Superman Returns / Happy Feet / The Departed
Universal (1) The Breakup

2005 (19)
Disney(Buena Vista) (3) - The Chronicles of Narnia / Chicken Little / The Pacifier
DreamWorks (1) - Madagascar
Fox (5) - Star Wars: Episode III / Mr. & Mrs. Smith / Fantastic Four / Robots / Walk the Line
New Line (1) - Wedding Crashers
Paramount (2) - War of the Worlds / Longest Yard
Sony (2) - Hitch / Fun with Dick and Jane
Warner (3) - Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire / Charlie and the Chocolate Factory */ Batman Begins*
Universal (2) - King Kong / 40 yr Old Virgin

Why is there NO perfect equipment, only compromises?
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post #2 of 537 Old 03-21-2007, 07:14 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rlsmith View Post

Good restatement.

Have you looked at the release schedule for the rest of the year? I looked a bit and the only potential blockbuster I saw this year for Universal is Evan Almighty. This film appears to have had a problematic and expensive production history but it should be big on disk regardless of what happens in the theatre.

Another one that will probably be big is "The Bourne Ultimatum".

--Darin

This is the AV Science Forum. Please don't be gullible and please do remember the saying, "Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me."
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post #3 of 537 Old 03-21-2007, 07:17 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SimpleTheater View Post

It looks like BluRay should be getting almost all of the recent blockbusters.

Movies that grossed >$100 million (by distributor)

2007 (3)
Buena Vista (1) - Wild Hogs
Sony (1) - Ghost Rider
Warner (1) - 300

2006 (19)
Buena Vista (2) - PotC2 / Cars
Fox (5) - Night at the Museum / X-Men: The Last Stand / Ice Age 2 / Borat / The Devil Wears Prada
Paramount (3) - Mission: Impossible III / Over the Hedge / Dreamgirls
Sony (5) - Click / The Da Vinci Code / Casino Royale / The Pursuit of Happyness / Talladega Nights
Universal (1) - The Breakup
Warner (3) - Superman Returns / Happy Feet / The Departed

2005 (19)
Buena Vista (3) - The Chronicles of Narnia / Chicken Little / The Pacifier
DreamWorks (1) - Madagascar
Fox (5) - Star Wars: Episode III / Mr. & Mrs. Smith / Fantastic Four / Robots / Walk the Line
New Line (1) - Wedding Crashers
Paramount (2) - War of the Worlds / Longest Yard
Sony (2) - Hitch / Fun with Dick and Jane
Universal (2) - King Kong / 40 yr Old Virgin
Warner (3) - Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire / Charlie and the Chocolate Factory / Batman Begins

Nice fact sheet....as everyone knows, it's the recent blockbuster movies that move titles, even though there are some catalog titles that can do well.

Oh, yeah, HD-DVD IS A DEAD MAN WALKING
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post #4 of 537 Old 03-22-2007, 06:00 AM - Thread Starter
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Originally Posted by MASrules View Post

This post is more important than any other arguement on this forum.

HD DVD is dead.

Thanks. From 2005 until today there are 41 blockbuster movies. Potentially (this assumes all go hi-def) HD-DVD could get 16 of those movies (39%), and BluRay could potentially get 38 (93%).

If 2007 goes as predicted there will be 20 movies grossing over $100 million. Universal will nab two of these spots with Bourne 3 and Evan Almighty. That will continue to give BluRay 90% of all blockbuster releases, and will keep HD-DVD in the 35% range.

But if Evan Almighty doesn't do well - and by well I mean make back the $350 million it has cost to make, I wonder if this will force Universal's hand to release on BluRay. Sure we're still small potatoes, but by releasing all their recent blockbusters they should sell around 500,000 copies on BluRay - and they'll make about $10 per disc. Sure $5 million in profit is not a huge incentive, but if they are close to losing money and are desperate for cash, they may go neutral. I'm curious if Evan Almighty's cost over-runs ends up dooming HD-DVD.

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post #5 of 537 Old 03-22-2007, 06:27 AM
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Yeah man! They should only make blockbuster movies dude! Just stop making dramas, comedies, horror movies, and suspense thrillers. Only make big budgeted blockbusters man! Woo yeah!!!!
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post #6 of 537 Old 03-22-2007, 06:28 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by darinp2 View Post

Another one that will probably be big is "The Bourne Ultimatum".

--Darin

I'd certainly say so. The Bourne series could be a reason why they re-did the Bond franchise.

Bourne Identity earned about $120 mil US
Bourne Supremacy increased to around $175 mil US

so Ultimatum could reach $200 mil US.
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post #7 of 537 Old 03-22-2007, 06:44 AM - Thread Starter
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Originally Posted by Mr. Cinema View Post

Yeah man! They should only make blockbuster movies dude! Just stop making dramas, comedies, horror movies, and suspense thrillers. Only make big budgeted blockbusters man! Woo yeah!!!!

No one is recommending only blockbusters. But when discussing the long-term viability of a product one must remember that small niche films do not sell a format. The fact that HD-DVD will get less than 40% of the blockbuster films, as opposed to BluRays >90%, is extremely important in deciding the winner of this format.

My favorite BluRay movie to date is Stranger Than Fiction and it only grossed $40 million at the box office. People, like myself, who love those types of movies (lots of character development and dialogue), will not be the one's who determine the format of the future. We are too small a minority.

Why is there NO perfect equipment, only compromises?
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post #8 of 537 Old 04-12-2007, 03:36 PM
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Very interesting numbers. I noted last year that I figured the winner would probably be based on what studios made the big blockbusters this year. (As did others.) As Casino Royale has shown, these movies can more discs than 40 average catalog titles. This is why Blu Ray's larger studio list is so valuable to it. The changes of a blockbuster being on Blu Ray are so much higher, as these numbers have shown.

I don't agree that HD DVD is dead, by any means, but it's been lagging behind. And, without more studio support, I don't see how it can pass Blu Ray.
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post #9 of 537 Old 04-12-2007, 03:47 PM
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Even when betamax got much smaller movie rental selection, that format took 10 years to die. The last 5 years were not pretty though as betamax owners generally got less and less movies from less and less rental stores, 3 years before the end, Betamax Hifi VCR costs half the price of the VHS HiFi, which forced VHS HiFi to reduce their price (to the joy of those who needed to buy a VHS HiFi VCR).

2 years before Rolling Stone's announcement that the war is over, the cheapest VCR was a betamax that was below $300 --- again forcing VHS to lower their prices.

A format war also creates a price war, and that's the positive side for us who don't depend on a pay cheque from either side.
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post #10 of 537 Old 04-12-2007, 04:35 PM
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Originally Posted by Neo1965 View Post

Even when betamax got much smaller movie rental selection, that format took 10 years to die. The last 5 years were not pretty though as betamax owners generally got less and less movies from less and less rental stores, 3 years before the end, Betamax Hifi VCR costs half the price of the VHS HiFi, which forced VHS HiFi to reduce their price (to the joy of those who needed to buy a VHS HiFi VCR).

2 years before Rolling Stone's announcement that the war is over, the cheapest VCR was a betamax that was below $300 --- again forcing VHS to lower their prices.

A format war also creates a price war, and that's the positive side for us who don't depend on a pay cheque from either side.


Interesting how HD-DVD is following that trend of lower prices, with less studio support.

Not that I care one way or the other, but it'll be interesting if it plays out in a similar fashion.

I wasn't really old enough to care back during Beta vs VHS. I think the one time I did care was I was over at my cousin's house and we all wanted to rent a movie. We went to the video store, and my aunt tried to explain to us why the movie we had picked out wouldn't work, (and since they had no Beta's of that video), we couldn't rent it.

59 Blu-rays and counting...
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post #11 of 537 Old 04-18-2007, 09:25 AM - Thread Starter
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Universal's top release for 2007, thus far, is Dead Silence with $16 million in revenue. That ranks #24 for movies released in 2007. If this is the best HD-DVD can give as exclusive content, it's going to be a rough year. If I was an HD-DVD owner I'd be counting the blessings for Paramount and Warner, not Universal.

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post #12 of 537 Old 04-18-2007, 02:15 PM
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Ouch...that's not good. However, that probably means Universal will have time work on releasing some of their better catalog titles.
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post #13 of 537 Old 04-18-2007, 03:47 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SimpleTheater View Post

Universal's top release for 2007, thus far, is Dead Silence with $16 million in revenue. That ranks #24 for movies released in 2007. If this is the best HD-DVD can give as exclusive content, it's going to be a rough year. If I was an HD-DVD owner I'd be counting the blessings for Paramount and Warner, not Universal.

Universal's Smokin' Aces (2007) grossed $35.6 million in the US and $54 million worldwide. My math has that as better than $16 million unless I'm missing something. The Hitcher also is higher at $16.4 million. And Hot Fuzz, which has already opened in the UK, has grossed £20,514,502 already (over $40 million in US dollars) and is the #1 film of the year in the UK so far. This action/comedy from the Shaun Of the Dead troop is also from Universal Studios and will be a major video release for the format, given the popularity of their first effort. It opens in the US on Friday.
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post #14 of 537 Old 04-19-2007, 05:37 AM - Thread Starter
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Originally Posted by Bob Black View Post

Universal's Smokin' Aces (2007) grossed $35.6 million in the US and $54 million worldwide.

Right you are. The Yahoo Box Office list only includes movies still in release and Smokin' Aces is no longer in theaters.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob Black View Post

The Hitcher also is higher at $16.4 million.

The Hitcher may be ahead by a few hundred thousand over Dead Silence, but that's not the point being made. Universal has no mega-hits for 2007
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob Black View Post

And Hot Fuzz, which has already opened in the UK, has grossed £20,514,502 already (over $40 million in US dollars) and is the #1 film of the year in the UK so far.

I don't care what a movie makes in the UK, France or India. The USA is where I live, so if HD-DVD prospers in Europe and dies here that's what I care about.

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Originally Posted by Bob Black View Post

This action/comedy from the Shaun Of the Dead troop is also from Universal Studios and will be a major video release for the format, given the popularity of their first effort. It opens in the US on Friday.

We'll see if it gets anywhere near the $100 million gross U.S. box office to make the list.

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post #15 of 537 Old 04-19-2007, 10:23 AM
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Originally Posted by SimpleTheater View Post

We'll see if it gets anywhere near the $100 million gross U.S. box office to make the list.

I doubt Hot Fuzz will make $100 million in the US market, but it will be a major release on video nonetheless.

Potential blockbusters for Universal Studios this year include Evan Almighty (June 22 - Steve Carell in the sequel to the 2003 blockbuster), The Bourne Ultimatum (Aug 3 - Matt Damon returns in this sequel to the $176 million 2003 Supremacy), I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Nancy (July 20 - Adam Sandler / Kevin James comedy), The Kingdom (Sept 28 - acclaimed political thriller with Jamie Foxx & Chris Cooper), American Gangster (Nov 2 - Ridley Scott directs Russell Crowe, Denzel Washington and Cuba Gooding, Jr), and Charlie Wilson's War (Dec 25 - Mike Nichols directs Tom Hanks, Julia Roberts, Philip Seymour Hoffman).

And there are some potential hits coming from Weinstein as well, also exclusive to HD-DVD. The Grindhouse, of course, but also 1408 (July 13) with John Cusack & Samuel L. Jackson, Last Legion (Aug 24), Rob Zombie's Halloween remake (Aug 31), and the Nanny Diaries (Sept 7).

If anything, 2007 looks like a very good year for Universal with several potential mega-hits. A little something for all tastes as well.
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post #16 of 537 Old 04-19-2007, 10:56 AM - Thread Starter
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Originally Posted by Bob Black View Post

I doubt Hot Fuzz will make $100 million in the US market, but it will be a major release on video nonetheless.

Potential blockbusters for Universal Studios this year include Evan Almighty (June 22 - Steve Carell in the sequel to the 2003 blockbuster), The Bourne Ultimatum (Aug 3 - Matt Damon returns in this sequel to the $176 million 2003 Supremacy), I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Nancy (July 20 - Adam Sandler / Kevin James comedy), The Kingdom (Sept 28 - acclaimed political thriller with Jamie Foxx & Chris Cooper), American Gangster (Nov 2 - Ridley Scott directs Russell Crowe, Denzel Washington and Cuba Gooding, Jr), and Charlie Wilson's War (Dec 25 - Mike Nichols directs Tom Hanks, Julia Roberts, Philip Seymour Hoffman).

And there are some potential hits coming from Weinstein as well, also exclusive to HD-DVD. The Grindhouse, of course, but also 1408 (July 13) with John Cusack & Samuel L. Jackson, Last Legion (Aug 24), Rob Zombie's Halloween remake (Aug 31), and the Nanny Diaries (Sept 7).

If anything, 2007 looks like a very good year for Universal with several potential mega-hits. A little something for all tastes as well.

I always like the Bourne series and if done well that should definitely blow past the $100 million mark. Evan Almighty has to do very, very well - rumors have put the cost over $350 million. If that movie is a flop, Universal as a studio might be cash poor for some time to come. In fact, I believe if Evan Almighty has a gross under $75 million, Universal will go neutral in 2008, if only to put a few million dollars into its accounts. Comedy's don't do well overseas, so Evan either makes its money in the USA or it doesn't.

I doubt the other movies get anywhere close to $100 million.

So, like 2006, Universal probably gets 2 movies that gross over $100 million, and once again Blu-Ray owners will not get those 2 titles. HD-DVD owners will probably suffer with another 10 to 12 blockbusters they won't be able to watch. It's just hard to see HD-DVD win this format war, regardless how cheap they sell players, when they aren't getting 50% of the blockbusters and Blu-Ray is getting 90%.

Why is there NO perfect equipment, only compromises?
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post #17 of 537 Old 04-19-2007, 12:20 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SimpleTheater View Post

I always like the Bourne series and if done well that should definitely blow past the $100 million mark. Evan Almighty has to do very, very well - rumors have put the cost over $350 million. If that movie is a flop, Universal as a studio might be cash poor for some time to come. In fact, I believe if Evan Almighty has a gross under $75 million, Universal will go neutral in 2008, if only to put a few million dollars into its accounts. Comedy's don't do well overseas, so Evan either makes its money in the USA or it doesn't.

I doubt the other movies get anywhere close to $100 million.

So, like 2006, Universal probably gets 2 movies that gross over $100 million, and once again Blu-Ray owners will not get those 2 titles. HD-DVD owners will probably suffer with another 10 to 12 blockbusters they won't be able to watch. It's just hard to see HD-DVD win this format war, regardless how cheap they sell players, when they aren't getting 50% of the blockbusters and Blu-Ray is getting 90%.

I would say you're trying too hard to be pessimistic regarding Universal's films this year. Bruce Almighty made over $240 million in the US alone (including an astounding $85 million in its opening weekend), and Evan Almighty will most certainly be a mega-hit regardless of the well-documented problems with its budget. Bourne is a no-brainer -- probably take in close to $200 million if the earlier 2 films in the series are any indication!

As for your assessment of the other films I listed, Chuck & Nancy could easily eclipse $100 million (not that it's my taste in films), and Ridley Scott's American Gangster & Mike Nichol's Charlie Wilson's War will both most likely reach the $100 million mark. Did you see the star power in both of these films? Not only summer blockbuster type films can attain boxoffice gold -- these 2 films are being released during the holiday period, and will likely be abuzz with Oscar talk. Just look at what The Departed did last year after opening in October, and that was with an R rating!

Regarding the 10 - 12 boxoffice hits you claim HD-DVD will suffer without this year, besides Spiderman, Pirates, Ratatouille (a cartoon) and possibly Live Free or Die Hard, what major films will be missing? 300, Ocean's Thirteen and Harry Potter are Warner, Paramount has Transformers, Dreamworks has Shrek The 3rd, New Line has Rush Hour 3...what am I missing? Wild Hogs, Ghostrider, Fantastic Four, The Simpsons Movie -- are you kidding me? Who really cares about such films on video? They're certainly not going to sway someone into buying into a new format.

Meanwhile, Universal has 2 can't-miss hits for the summer and virtually will OWN the Fall/Winter boxoffice between The Kingdom, American Gangster and Charlie Wilson's War! Check out this year's release schedule & find any competition for these star-studded pictures.

And, for the record, the importance of a film is not simply based on the boxoffice numbers. Ghost Rider has terrible reviews yet garnered over $100 million in ticket sales. It's success on home video is not a guarantee -- it's the type of film that will probably do decent in rentals but struggle in sales due to its poor reviews. Don't confuse $100 million boxoffice take as sure-fire home video success, because it doesn't always translate that way.
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post #18 of 537 Old 04-19-2007, 12:45 PM
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Sorry Bob, but you are overstating things in HD-DVD's favor once again.

Bourne and Evan will be hits and will sell well on disc.

The other movies you mention may have good casts, but have no hype and are not likely to be hits. You are really stretching on calling these films potential blockbusters.

Pirates 3, Ratatoulle, and Spiderman 3. These will be the biggest three movies at the box office this year. They will be the three highest selling discs this year (provided they are all released this year). These have great pedigree that have shown incredible disc sales. Pixar, Pirates, Spiderman. Universal has not had anything like these for years, and certainly don't have anything close on the horizon. Spiderman 3, Pirates 3, Ratatoulle. These films will gross more than all of the Universal movies you mentioned combined and will sell many more discs than the movies you mentioned combined.

I know that you are invested in HD-DVD and don't seem to be able to see the future without your red coloured glasses, but unless studios from the Blu side go neutral, the future is all Blu.

Day and date blockbusters is what will sell the most discs. The most, biggest, and best blockbusters will be almost completely Blu. And so will the future of HD movies.
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post #19 of 537 Old 04-19-2007, 01:08 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MASrules View Post

Sorry Bob, but you are overstating things in HD-DVD's favor once again.

Bourne and Evan will be hits and will sell well on disc.

The other movies you mention may have good casts, but have no hype and are not likely to be hits. You are really stretching on calling these films potential blockbusters.

Pirates 3, Ratatoulle, and Spiderman 3. These will be the biggest three movies at the box office this year. They will be the three highest selling discs this year (provided they are all released this year). These have great pedigree that have shown incredible disc sales. Pixar, Pirates, Spiderman. Universal has not had anything like these for years, and certainly don't have anything close on the horizon. Spiderman 3, Pirates 3, Ratatoulle. These films will gross more than all of the Universal movies you mentioned combined and will sell many more discs than the movies you mentioned combined.

I know that you are invested in HD-DVD and don't seem to be able to see the future without your red coloured glasses, but unless studios from the Blu side go neutral, the future is all Blu.

Day and date blockbusters is what will sell the most discs. The most, biggest, and best blockbusters will be almost completely Blu. And so will the future of HD movies.

Why would there be hype now about a film being released in November or December? The 2 films I mentioned WILL be the major hits for the holiday season and will most likely be nominated for several Academy Awards between them. And there are plenty of HT enthusiasts and film lovers that prefer excellent thrillers and award-winning dramas to summer action pictures -- simply look at the Departed from last year which took the top spot in DVD sales and rentals.

And there is good reason to believe that Shrek and / or Transformers will outperform Ratatouille and maybe even Pirates 3. Shrek 2 is currently the # 3 movie in US history behind only Titanic and Star Wars, so it could easily be the #1 movie of 2007. Spiderman will certainly be a major hit, and I never said it wouldn't. I am simply responding to a thread that claims Universal has no potential blockbusters in 2007, which is an outright fallacy.

And speaking of colored glasses, you might want to take your Blu-colored ones off for a change as well, as your format hasn't shown any signs of mass adoption, nor has it even been able to sell one million total discs after nearly a year on the market and 80% studio support!
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post #20 of 537 Old 04-19-2007, 01:20 PM
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I will admit that Shrek 3 has a chance to gross more than one or two of the three main Blu exclusive blockbusters for this summer, so that is a valid point.

Universal may have a few solid movies this year, but Fox, Disney and Sony will have more, even without counting pirates, pixar, or Spidey.

My point is that those three movies are on a different higher plane than any Universal movie. Astronomical box office numbers, but more importantly, high translation into disc sales. These movies will be enough to drive a format. Universal has nothing even close. Content has been king from day one, and these movies will be the main titles that will doom HD-DVD.

You mentioned hype. Pirates and Spiderman have basically been hyped for years before release and that is part of the reason why they will be super blockbusters. No Universal movie has any sort of hype for this year and my guess is many will fall short of your expectations ( and many will fall short of Universal's).

I admit I wear Blu-coloured glasses, but on this issue and in the format war in general, Blu coloured glasses are much closer to reality than Red-coloured ones are. As Blu continues to pull away those Red glasses are going to see things further and further from reality.
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post #21 of 537 Old 04-19-2007, 01:41 PM
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HA, you guys are funny. Good blockbusters coming from both formats. Spiderman,POTC 3,Bourne,Hot Fuzz, etc. etc.

It cracks me up to see you two try to diminish the movies of the "other" side, when you know damn well you will go see ALL of these movies.

You guys fight, while I watch them all on my PS3 and HDDVD

I'd love to get my hands on a Blu Monster's Ball.-LilStinky

Refering to a possible release of said movie on BD LOL
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post #22 of 537 Old 04-19-2007, 02:44 PM
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Originally Posted by Urza View Post

HA, you guys are funny. Good blockbusters coming from both formats. Spiderman,POTC 3,Bourne,Hot Fuzz, etc. etc.

It cracks me up to see you two try to diminish the movies of the "other" side, when you know damn well you will go see ALL of these movies.

You guys fight, while I watch them all on my PS3 and HDDVD

I am looking forward to seeing Hot Fuzz, and I love the Bourne series, but as far as blockbusters go they shouldn't even be mentioned in the same paragraph as Spiderman and PotC.
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post #23 of 537 Old 04-19-2007, 04:42 PM
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Originally Posted by Jiffylush View Post

I am looking forward to seeing Hot Fuzz, and I love the Bourne series, but as far as blockbusters go they shouldn't even be mentioned in the same paragraph as Spiderman and PotC.

I agree... and thats coming from a guy who's looking forward to the Bourne movie more than anything.
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post #24 of 537 Old 04-19-2007, 04:44 PM
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[quote=SimpleTheater]If 2007 goes as predicted there will be 20 movies grossing over $100 million. Universal will nab two of these spots with Bourne 3 and Evan Almighty. That will continue to give BluRay 90% of all blockbuster releases, and will keep HD-DVD in the 35% range.QUOTE]
Which movies are expected to go over the $100 mark???
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post #25 of 537 Old 04-20-2007, 06:37 AM - Thread Starter
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Originally Posted by shamus1099 View Post

Which movies are expected to go over the $100 mark???

For 2007 we already have four movies over $100 million.
Wild Hogs
Ghost Rider

300
Blades of Glory

I have little doubt the following movies break $100 million this year:
Bourne Ultimatum
Evan Almighty

Spiderman 3
Ratatouille
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer
Live Free or Die Hard
The Simpsons Movie

Shrek the Third
Ocean's Thirteen
Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix

These movies have a shot at $100 million, but it's all speculation. Plus a sleeper could always appear (e.g: My Big Fat Greek Wedding) :
Meet the Robinsons
National Treasure: Book of Secrets

I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry
American Gangster

Nancy Drew
Transformers
Rush Hour 3
The Heartbreak Kid
Bee Movie
Lions for Lambs

Why is there NO perfect equipment, only compromises?
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post #26 of 537 Old 04-20-2007, 06:59 AM - Thread Starter
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Originally Posted by Bob Black View Post

I would say you're trying too hard to be pessimistic regarding Universal's films this year. Bruce Almighty made over $240 million in the US alone (including an astounding $85 million in its opening weekend), and Evan Almighty will most certainly be a mega-hit regardless of the well-documented problems with its budget. Bourne is a no-brainer -- probably take in close to $200 million if the earlier 2 films in the series are any indication!

I'm not being pessimistic in the slightest. I expect both those movies to be huge hits. I did add that if Evan Almighty proves to be a flop, Universal is going to be in a cash crunch.
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As for your assessment of the other films I listed, Chuck & Nancy could easily eclipse $100 million (not that it's my taste in films), and Ridley Scott's American Gangster & Mike Nichol's Charlie Wilson's War will both most likely reach the $100 million mark.

I think you mean Chuck & Larry - and yes that has a shot at the $100 million mark. Charlie Wilson's War is so late in 2007, it's hard to see that hitting video until mid-2008 and definitely won't gross over $100 million until 2008.

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Regarding the 10 - 12 boxoffice hits you claim HD-DVD will suffer without this year, besides Spiderman, Pirates, Ratatouille (a cartoon) and possibly Live Free or Die Hard, what major films will be missing?
...
Wild Hogs, Ghostrider, Fantastic Four, The Simpsons Movie -- are you kidding me? Who really cares about such films on video? They're certainly not going to sway someone into buying into a new format.

While it's no guarantee that a blockbuster sells movies to the home market, you don't sell to the home video market without blockbusters. I always get a kick out of people who say "Who cares about blockbuster ...", it reminds me of Yogi Berra's great line "No one goes there anymore, it's too crowded."

These movies do matter - every mega hit matters, and if I said who wants to watch two comedy's on high-def (Chuck & Larry, Evan Almighty) I'd be as wrong as you saying who care's about the Fantastic Four and The Simpsons.

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Meanwhile, Universal has 2 can't-miss hits for the summer and virtually will OWN the Fall/Winter boxoffice between The Kingdom, American Gangster and Charlie Wilson's War!

The have a potential, but I could see all three of those movies struggle depending on the appetite for another gangster movie (American Gangster), overly political anti-American attitude about the CIA arming the Mujahedeen in Afghanistan (Charlie Wilson's War) and I doubt The Kingdom breaks $100 million. The whole idea of FBI agents going to the Middle East to investigate some murders is intriguing, but not mega-hit intriguing.

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And, for the record, the importance of a film is not simply based on the boxoffice numbers. Ghost Rider has terrible reviews yet garnered over $100 million in ticket sales. It's success on home video is not a guarantee -- it's the type of film that will probably do decent in rentals but struggle in sales due to its poor reviews. Don't confuse $100 million boxoffice take as sure-fire home video success, because it doesn't always translate that way.

Actually it doesn't ALWAYS translate that way, but historically the trend works that way.

Why is there NO perfect equipment, only compromises?
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post #27 of 537 Old 04-20-2007, 08:42 AM
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You guys crack me up. Both formats are the Laserdisc of the 21st century. Videophiles and movie buffs will decide the fate of the niche HD-DVD and Blu-Ray formats.
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post #28 of 537 Old 04-20-2007, 08:56 AM - Thread Starter
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You guys crack me up. Both formats are the Laserdisc of the 21st century. Videophiles and movie buffs will decide the fate of the niche HD-DVD and Blu-Ray formats.

Sorry Russ, but one of these formats is going to be the defacto storage format on computers. Hospitals, banks and insurance company's are fed up with the huge number of DVD's required for their optical scan systems. Both formats have triple layer support from the start, with the possibility of four layer support.

DVD's will soon die as a storage medium, the discs will get cheaper as will the re-writers and they will appear on mainstream computers from Dell, Apple, HP within 18-24 months.

Signs will go up in BestBuy and Circuit City that say "Want high def video to go along with your recent high def television?"

Studio's are tired at how easily their movies are copied, but can't ignore the giant DVD market yet. When parity is reached - about three years - they will begin hi-def only releases.

Sure hackers will break the system (already have) but the AACS is already releasing updates and instead of being broken once and forever (e.g. DVD) it will be a cat and mouse game.

Of course, early DVD adopters were told the same thing as I quoted you when compared to the all powerful VHS.

Why is there NO perfect equipment, only compromises?
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post #29 of 537 Old 04-20-2007, 10:14 AM
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What?!? You don't think Transformers is a lock for $100+ million?!?
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post #30 of 537 Old 04-24-2007, 05:17 AM - Thread Starter
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Originally Posted by Bob Black View Post

And Hot Fuzz, which has already opened in the UK, has grossed £20,514,502 already (over $40 million in US dollars) and is the #1 film of the year in the UK so far. This action/comedy from the Shaun Of the Dead troop is also from Universal Studios and will be a major video release for the format, given the popularity of their first effort. It opens in the US on Friday.

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I doubt Hot Fuzz will make $100 million in the US market, but it will be a major release on video nonetheless.

Well its official. With only $5.8 million in its opening weekend, Hot Fuzz is not going to be a major release title in the U.S.

Why is there NO perfect equipment, only compromises?
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