Originally Posted by SimpleTheater
I always like the Bourne series and if done well that should definitely blow past the $100 million mark. Evan Almighty has to do very, very well - rumors have put the cost over $350 million. If that movie is a flop, Universal as a studio might be cash poor for some time to come. In fact, I believe if Evan Almighty has a gross under $75 million, Universal will go neutral in 2008, if only to put a few million dollars into its accounts. Comedy's don't do well overseas, so Evan either makes its money in the USA or it doesn't.
I doubt the other movies get anywhere close to $100 million.
So, like 2006, Universal probably gets 2 movies that gross over $100 million, and once again Blu-Ray owners will not get those 2 titles. HD-DVD owners will probably suffer with another 10 to 12 blockbusters they won't be able to watch. It's just hard to see HD-DVD win this format war, regardless how cheap they sell players, when they aren't getting 50% of the blockbusters and Blu-Ray is getting 90%.
I would say you're trying too hard to be pessimistic regarding Universal's films this year. Bruce Almighty
made over $240 million in the US alone (including an astounding $85 million in its opening weekend), and Evan Almighty
will most certainly be a mega-hit regardless of the well-documented problems with its budget. Bourne
is a no-brainer -- probably take in close to $200 million if the earlier 2 films in the series are any indication!
As for your assessment of the other films I listed, Chuck & Nancy
could easily eclipse $100 million (not that it's my taste in films), and Ridley Scott's American Gangster
& Mike Nichol's Charlie Wilson's War
will both most likely reach the $100 million mark. Did you see the star power in both of these films? Not only summer blockbuster type films can attain boxoffice gold -- these 2 films are being released during the holiday period, and will likely be abuzz with Oscar talk. Just look at what The Departed
did last year after opening in October, and that was with an R rating!
Regarding the 10 - 12 boxoffice hits you claim HD-DVD will suffer without this year, besides Spiderman, Pirates, Ratatouille (a cartoon) and possibly Live Free or Die Hard, what major films will be missing? 300, Ocean's Thirteen and Harry Potter are Warner, Paramount has Transformers, Dreamworks has Shrek The 3rd, New Line has Rush Hour 3...what am I missing? Wild Hogs, Ghostrider, Fantastic Four, The Simpsons Movie -- are you kidding me? Who really cares about such films on video? They're certainly not going to sway someone into buying into a new format.
Meanwhile, Universal has 2 can't-miss hits for the summer and virtually will OWN the Fall/Winter boxoffice between The Kingdom, American Gangster and Charlie Wilson's War! Check out this year's release schedule & find any competition for these star-studded pictures.
And, for the record, the importance of a film is not simply based on the boxoffice numbers. Ghost Rider has terrible reviews yet garnered over $100 million in ticket sales. It's success on home video is not a guarantee -- it's the type of film that will probably do decent in rentals but struggle in sales due to its poor reviews. Don't confuse $100 million boxoffice take as sure-fire home video success, because it doesn't always translate that way.