4K projectors under $3K - AVS Forum
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post #1 of 74 Old 11-22-2013, 05:30 PM - Thread Starter
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I am not buying a new projector until 4K projectors are under $3K.
Recently I changed my Panasonic PT AE3000 lamp. Then the Temperature warning light came on the screen more often and the unit turned off frequently. I panicked and started looking for a new 4K projectors or a new 4K 90 inch LCD. Nothing under $10K. Remembered the days of waiting for 1080P Panasonic AE 1000 while holding to an old 720P AE900.
Now trying to hold on AE3000 as much as possible. I cleaned the air filter and no more warning light. But now there is a center dark tint on blue polarizer. Most probably from too much heat.
Open Question: Based on your transition from Standard definition ->720->1080, How long will it take for this crazy prices to come down for 4K projectors? Will you switch to 90 inch LCD panel and end this lamp dimming, lamp changing, polarizer burning projection fiasco if the panels were around $3K? I saw a 90 inch Sharp around $6,000 and the salesmen at Magnolia said no one is buying it after seeing the 4K Samsung and Sony.
I would unplug my PJ and move my HT seats closer to a 90 inch panel if it was more affordable. Presently my screen is 10 feet diagonally.

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post #2 of 74 Old 11-22-2013, 07:46 PM
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Based on history, we have about 3 years I expect before we will see sub $3,000 4K native displays with HDMI 2.0. We may get surprised in two years, but I wouldn't expect it at CEDIA next year and TI seems to be really, really slow to take any advantage whatsoever in anything that might actually make their product stand out or leap ahead of the others, so I just wouldn't hold my breath.

Now, what we may see in the next few years is that lamps go through a significant technology jump. Historically, lamps have been a big cash cow for manufacturers. But, the reality was that you could buy a replacement lamp for under $100 all over the place. And, we have lamps that last for thousands of hours in our cars and cost a few bucks to replace. We have been getting scammed as far as I can tell. I think the proof of this is in the new Epson lamp in their 2030. While the projector itself seems to have more than a few flaws, the lamps don't seem to be getting panned. So, they now have a 5,000 hour rated lamp which costs $100 to replace. I have heard that Epson may also be coming out with a 10,000 hour lamp. Think about what that means for front projection. Bright, replaceable lamps, which last for years, and only costs $100 to have a new lamp shipped.

As for 80" or 90" flat panels... That sounds about right for my family room. I'd love to get the Sharp 90" for in there, but my home theater is 161" and that's over four times the size of a 80" display. I don't use it all the time, and it is special to be able to use it, and remains an impressive, encompassing, immersive experience. A lamp ever few years for me isn't a bad price to pay for that enjoyment.
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post #3 of 74 Old 11-22-2013, 08:49 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AV_Integrated View Post

Based on history, we have about 3 years I expect before we will see sub $3,000 4K native displays with HDMI 2.0. We may get surprised in two years, but I wouldn't expect it at CEDIA next year and TI seems to be really, really slow to take any advantage whatsoever in anything that might actually make their product stand out or leap ahead of the others, so I just wouldn't hold my breath.

Now, what we may see in the next few years is that lamps go through a significant technology jump. Historically, lamps have been a big cash cow for manufacturers. But, the reality was that you could buy a replacement lamp for under $100 all over the place. And, we have lamps that last for thousands of hours in our cars and cost a few bucks to replace. We have been getting scammed as far as I can tell. I think the proof of this is in the new Epson lamp in their 2030. While the projector itself seems to have more than a few flaws, the lamps don't seem to be getting panned. So, they now have a 5,000 hour rated lamp which costs $100 to replace. I have heard that Epson may also be coming out with a 10,000 hour lamp. Think about what that means for front projection. Bright, replaceable lamps, which last for years, and only costs $100 to have a new lamp shipped.

As for 80" or 90" flat panels... That sounds about right for my family room. I'd love to get the Sharp 90" for in there, but my home theater is 161" and that's over four times the size of a 80" display. I don't use it all the time, and it is special to be able to use it, and remains an impressive, encompassing, immersive experience. A lamp ever few years for me isn't a bad price to pay for that enjoyment.

I hear ya. I could never go to a panel in my theater because I have an 125" acoustic transparent screen set-up and I could never go back to an above or below screen center channel, not to mention identical LCR's at same height across the back of the screen. I'll always have AT front projection in my theater.

I set really close to my screen so 4K is definitely an interest. But even where I'm at now I can't see pixels which is about 12.5 ft from my head to the screen.

Now I am looking to upgrade projectors in the next couple years and the idea of a bulb lasting 5,000 to 10,000 hours is amazing it me. I'm gunna have to check that out. I've also considered LED pjs but I have not looked into them for awhile and last I checked it was hard to find a good performer in 2D and 3D that wasn't really expensive. 4K has my attention. It will have more once content is out and especially a 4K BD or the like. Than I'm all over it.

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post #4 of 74 Old 11-23-2013, 09:28 PM
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I wish I had a 4k projector to watch all my 4k movies.



I vote this thread -4 lol.
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post #5 of 74 Old 11-24-2013, 07:06 AM - Thread Starter
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The only people laughing are 4K owners who are enjoying their TVs and PJs now watching upconverted present materials, playing video games and watching 4K computer stills and videos. For example I am into photography and obviously I see a big difference when I compare still photos on 1080 and 4K TVs. Just take a USB Flash Drive with you to a store and see yourself. Make sure photos are in their high megapixel form. I hope not everyone is only watching 640×480 porn images on their monitors and TVs 24 hours a day.

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post #6 of 74 Old 11-24-2013, 10:17 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DrA View Post

The only people laughing are 4K owners who are enjoying their TVs and PJs now watching upconverted present materials, playing video games and watching 4K computer stills and videos. For example I am into photography and obviously I see a big difference when I compare still photos on 1080 and 4K TVs. Just take a USB Flash Drive with you to a store and see yourself. Make sure photos are in their high megapixel form. I hope not everyone is only watching 640×480 porn images on their monitors and TVs 24 hours a day.
I think 4k with J6P may not catch on due to their far viewing distance.
It seems most sit 2x or further from their screen, which negates the 4k improvement that can be seen.
Heck, most of them don't see a difference between DVD and blu-ray due to their far viewing distance.

I just hope 4k projectors and content survive at a price point that is affordable.

2014
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post #7 of 74 Old 11-24-2013, 11:24 AM
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Originally Posted by 42Plasmaman View Post

I think 4k with J6P may not catch on due to their far viewing distance.
You are incredibly wrong on this.

Not that your logic doesn't make sense...
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Originally Posted by 42Plasmaman View Post

It seems most sit 2x or further from their screen, which negates the 4k improvement that can be seen.
Heck, most of them don't see a difference between DVD and blu-ray due to their far viewing distance.
This has been the case for years that most people don't even see an improvement between a 480p display and a 1080p display, but that's got nothing to do with it. The request for higher resolution has long since trumped actual color accuracy, contrast, or other factors. It is the concept that has killed the CD, and is killing physical media altogether. People who swear by Netflix streaming '1080p' vs. what Blu-ray Disc offers. People DO care, but they don't care about what actually matters - the overall image on screen.

Any doubts? Just ask Pioneer.

Yes, UHD will take off. It will become a up-sell goal for a couple of years, then will become a consumer demand for years afterward. Whether it offers any benefit whatsoever to any person will be completely irrelevant. How many decades did we stick with NTSC and it was perfectly fine? Now we can't even get through a full decade of one format without the industry shifting.
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I just hope 4k projectors and content survive at a price point that is affordable.
No it won't. It won't survive because 8K then 10K and 16K and 32K will come along and people will laugh at you viewing 4K content on your 110" projection screen while they sit back and enjoy real quality with their 16K 40" screen they view from 23 feet away.

biggrin.gif And HDMI still won't carry 2-channel audio to zone 2 of your A/V receiver.

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post #8 of 74 Old 11-24-2013, 06:02 PM
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A lot of bitterness in that post.

It's just consumer electronics, not the Nuremberg Trials
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post #9 of 74 Old 11-25-2013, 03:58 AM
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Originally Posted by DrA View Post

The only people laughing are 4K owners who are enjoying their TVs and PJs now watching upconverted present materials, playing video games and watching 4K computer stills and videos. For example I am into photography and obviously I see a big difference when I compare still photos on 1080 and 4K TVs. Just take a USB Flash Drive with you to a store and see yourself. Make sure photos are in their high megapixel form. I hope not everyone is only watching 640×480 porn images on their monitors and TVs 24 hours a day.

I don't have a projector to look at still images.
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post #10 of 74 Old 11-25-2013, 05:44 AM
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I have sometimes tried to view my photos on 1080p (and 720p) projectors I have had and what I see is too soft to my eyes. For video, the jump leap from 1080p to 4K may not be as big as it is for still images. I am one of those who is waiting for 4k projectors to drop in to under $3000 so that I can afford one. Too bad, manufacturers are too slow in moving the resolution up (intentionally, in my opinion).

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post #11 of 74 Old 11-25-2013, 12:27 PM - Thread Starter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Verge2 View Post

I don't have a projector to look at still images.

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Originally Posted by raminolta View Post

I have sometimes tried to view my photos on 1080p (and 720p) projectors I have had and what I see is too soft to my eyes. For video, the jump leap from 1080p to 4K may not be as big as it is for still images. I am one of those who is waiting for 4k projectors to drop in to under $3000 so that I can afford one. Too bad, manufacturers are too slow in moving the resolution up (intentionally, in my opinion).

Yes intentionally to sell their overproduced 1080 junk this Holiday season and next.

I have my PC connected to my HT projector (HTPC) from day 1 and I use the PC more than Directv and PlayStation Bluray player connected to projector. When I show our vacation or weekend getaway pictures to friends we went with, they are amazed and request to see next pictures in HT instead of watching in the living room. New Cameras are 24 megapxels (6000x4000) and even with some post production cropping pictures are always well above 10 million pixels. Now we are still watching these pictures downscaled on 2K (1080x1920) TVs. So believe me: we badly need higher res 8 million pixel 4K (4,096 x 2160) monitors, Tvs and PJs.
Netflix was late to HD game and almost went to bankruptcy because they wanted to charge more for disc service on top of online subscription charge. Now they quickly have few 4K materials and planing 4K movies for 2014 No talk of extra charge.

(I sit 9 feet from 10 feet diagonal screen and don't see pixels probable because of Panasonic smooth screen technology.)

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post #12 of 74 Old 11-25-2013, 03:46 PM
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The other side of the coin is that as you go up in resolution, the requirements of your optics go up very quickly. We're already seeing all sorts of problems at just 1080P on projectors in the <$3k market due to poor optic quality, and it's extremely common in the <$1k camp.

So while the price of the panels in the projector might drop, I don't think optics costs have changed much over the past 10+ years that digital projectors have been gaining popularity.
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post #13 of 74 Old 11-26-2013, 05:27 AM
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I don't think you guys get it. I'm not so much mocking you because you look at photos on your projector, you are missing the point.

You represent about .0001% of the projector market which is tiny to begin with. It's almost absurd that you want companies to invest in a <3000 projector. That's a lot of capital for a minute market. Resolution isn't the top spec for many home theater enthusiasts.

Gonna be 3 or 4 years AFTER 4k content is standardized and available.
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post #14 of 74 Old 11-26-2013, 06:36 AM
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Originally Posted by Verge2 View Post

You represent about .0001% of the projector market which is tiny to begin with. It's almost absurd that you want companies to invest in a <3000 projector. That's a lot of capital for a minute market. Resolution isn't the top spec for many home theater enthusiasts.

Gonna be 3 or 4 years AFTER 4k content is standardized and available.
I would say that it isn't absurd for companies to invest in technologies which offer them a leg up on the competition as long as they can do so profitably.

A 4K projector isn't a reinvention of the wheel. It is a refinement of optics, a new processing chip, and a new imaging chip. This is the standard product of almost every single projector upgrade which occurs. JVC, Sony, Epson, Optoma, BenQ, etc. have been going through this process for years.

The key is that manufacturers want a hook to draw new customers in. For the past few years they banked on 3D, which didn't gain as much sales as the transition from 720p to 1080p delivered. So, they are falling back on proven marketing techniques. Higher resolution = more sales.

1080p displays predated 1080p content by years. YEARS! The early Mitsubishi displays which utilized wobulation didn't even accept a 1080p source because the chipsets didn't exist for it.

We already have 4K displays, with no serious content, so that won't be it.

Just the general drop in pricing that has traditionally been a part of front projection since 720p came to market followed by 1080p. The price drops have been pretty consistent. Sony and JVC out front, high dollar product to begin with, then DLP chips and LCD chips that follow-up and pricing which drops significantly when product offerings begin from Epson, Panasonic, Optoma, BenQ, and others.

I think 3 years is a pretty solid estimate of the sub $3,000 UHD projector.

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post #15 of 74 Old 11-26-2013, 12:12 PM
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This is my thinking about 4K projector prices

2011 -Sony 1000es at $25,000
2013 - Sony 500/600es at $15,000
2014 - JVC/Sony at $12,000
2015 - Different brands at $8000-$10,000
2016 - $5000 4K projectors
2017 - $3500 4k projectors
2018 - $2500-3000 4k projectors, then 8k hits the market
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post #16 of 74 Old 11-27-2013, 03:46 AM
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Blee is probably right.


1080p projectors were out, but they weren't in this forum until years after bluray.
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post #17 of 74 Old 11-27-2013, 04:02 AM - Thread Starter
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Originally Posted by blee0120 View Post

This is my thinking about 4K projector prices

2011 -Sony 1000es at $25,000
2013 - Sony 500/600es at $15,000
2014 - JVC/Sony at $12,000
2015 - Different brands at $8000-$10,000
2016 - $5000 4K projectors
2017 - $3500 4k projectors
2018 - $2500-3000 4k projectors, then 8k hits the market

With the inflation and and increased earnings $5000 in 2016 will be somehow affordable. We can only hope. Maybe this thread will be renamed under 4000 then? Plus there will be more affordable 80 to 90inch 4K panels putting some more pressure on projector prices. 80 inch Sharp is under $4K now. 2 years ago that was the price of 70inch when I got mine. 90 inch will be under $4K soon. Seiki 50" 4K is under $1K today. 65'' coming soon. Once Chinese figure out how to make cheap 100inch and larger I will roll up my PJ screen and put a largest panel behind it. Then I will wait for PJ prices to go down. In one word: Commodity.

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post #18 of 74 Old 11-27-2013, 04:46 AM - Thread Starter
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I would say that it isn't absurd for companies to invest in technologies which offer them a leg up on the competition as long as they can do so profitably.

A 4K projector isn't a reinvention of the wheel. It is a refinement of optics, a new processing chip, and a new imaging chip. This is the standard product of almost every single projector upgrade which occurs. JVC, Sony, Epson, Optoma, BenQ, etc. have been going through this process for years.

The key is that manufacturers want a hook to draw new customers in. For the past few years they banked on 3D, which didn't gain as much sales as the transition from 720p to 1080p delivered. So, they are falling back on proven marketing techniques. Higher resolution = more sales.

1080p displays predated 1080p content by years. YEARS! The early Mitsubishi displays which utilized wobulation didn't even accept a 1080p source because the chipsets didn't exist for it.

We already have 4K displays, with no serious content, so that won't be it.

Just the general drop in pricing that has traditionally been a part of front projection since 720p came to market followed by 1080p. The price drops have been pretty consistent. Sony and JVC out front, high dollar product to begin with, then DLP chips and LCD chips that follow-up and pricing which drops significantly when product offerings begin from Epson, Panasonic, Optoma, BenQ, and others.

I think 3 years is a pretty solid estimate of the sub $3,000 UHD projector.

Agree. I think transition to 4K will be easier because this time we have more established video streaming by Netflix, Amazon and Sony(via PS4, smart TVs etc) in place instead of difficult dvd to bluray transition to deal with.

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post #19 of 74 Old 11-27-2013, 05:30 AM
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Agree. I think transition to 4K will be easier because this time we have more established video streaming by Netflix, Amazon and Sony(via PS4, smart TVs etc) in place instead of difficult dvd to bluray transition to deal with.

There isn't any established 4k streaming and most will rather have disc
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post #20 of 74 Old 11-27-2013, 11:42 AM
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I see a big difference when I compare still photos on 1080 and 4K TVs. Just take a USB Flash Drive with you to a store and see yourself. Make sure photos are in their high megapixel form. I hope not everyone is only watching 640×480 porn images on their monitors and TVs 24 hours a day.
tDO6ls
I think all of here know there is a noticable improvement with a 4K display but viewing distance plays a big part.
I assume since you are viewing image stills for a PC monitor, you probably sit closer than 1x the screen distance so you can really see the difference.

As I pointed out, go to most peoples homes and they have their seats usually over 2x the screen size away from the TV, which really negates the benefit of 1080p.
These people also typically stick with DVD and streaming because they see no noticable improvement with blu-ray 1080p.

2014
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post #21 of 74 Old 11-27-2013, 08:19 PM
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Originally Posted by DrA View Post

With the inflation and and increased earnings $5000 in 2016 will be somehow affordable. We can only hope. Maybe this thread will be renamed under 4000 then? Plus there will be more affordable 80 to 90inch 4K panels putting some more pressure on projector prices. 80 inch Sharp is under $4K now. 2 years ago that was the price of 70inch when I got mine. 90 inch will be under $4K soon. Seiki 50" 4K is under $1K today. 65'' coming soon. Once Chinese figure out how to make cheap 100inch and larger I will roll up my PJ screen and put a largest panel behind it. Then I will wait for PJ prices to go down. In one word: Commodity.

Inflation isn't good, and your example isn't inflation.
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post #22 of 74 Old 11-27-2013, 10:46 PM - Thread Starter
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Inflation isn't good, and your example isn't inflation.

Inflation is not good by itself but in US it always results in proportional earning increases and some economists here in US want some inflation with increased wages. So in electronics context I was just hoping that increased earnings for us upgraders coupled with decreased TV prices because of China making it a commodity will be good. In the past few years we do not have wage increases because of no inflation but health care is increasing 15% annually. So people with a lot of health care costs are at disadvantage. Old people's retirement is not increasing because it is tied to inflation index but they are the ones that are paying more for increasingly more expensive drugs. For homeowners with fixed mortgage with increased wages every year it will be easier to make house payments because house payment is the biggest chunk of their expenses. Plus their house prices will go up so they are richer. It is so complicated that even experts in this field are divided. I am not an expert:)

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post #23 of 74 Old 11-28-2013, 07:17 AM
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There isn't any established 4k streaming and most will rather have disc
Unfortunately, I think your statement is inaccurate. I think most of us HERE would rather have the disc, but it seems that more and more people just want access through streaming. The new MP3 is the video stream. People are buying discs, but downloads continue to rise more and more.

I do expect that a Blu-ray 4K standard will emerge and that future players will support BD4K discs in much the same manner that BD3D discs and players just came to market and started being a standard. I mean, if you drop $3,000ish on a 4K projector, what's another 100 bucks for a 4K BD player so you can buy discs?

I had this exact same conversation when 1080p projectors first came to market, and people forget that a Panasonic 720p projector used to run over $2,000 a decade ago with no lens shift and minimal zoom range. Compare that to the AE8000. We will see sub $3,000 4K projectors in a few years. It is how sales will be maintained and it is an established trend. Anyone who argues it just needs to remember back to a few years ago and how much Blu-ray players cost when they were first released. Market competition will drive pricing down. It is not inherently more expensive to make optics better, but there will be some investments which will be necessary to make it all happen.

I'm looking forward to it all as it should coincide with when I finish my basement and perhaps have a dedicated home theater space.

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post #24 of 74 Old 11-28-2013, 07:28 AM
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Originally Posted by 42Plasmaman View Post

I think all of here know there is a noticable improvement with a 4K display but viewing distance plays a big part.
I assume since you are viewing image stills for a PC monitor, you probably sit closer than 1x the screen distance so you can really see the difference.

As I pointed out, go to most peoples homes and they have their seats usually over 2x the screen size away from the TV, which really negates the benefit of 1080p.
These people also typically stick with DVD and streaming because they see no noticeable improvement with blu-ray 1080p.

From my own experience, I would say for %95 of people, it's not about the noticeable improvement. It's about what other people buy. People want the thing that other people want and buy!

Most people I see around myself, don't care about quality. They didn't want DVD because it had higher quality than VHS. Many years ago, when I showed them the difference, they admitted the DVD image quality was better but, it didn't convince them to buy a DVD player. Time passed and people started buying DVD players. Then the same people I knew wanted to have a DVD player talking about its superior image quality. Same thing happened with 1080p tv's. At first people they didn't care about the impr0vement in image quality over SD materials until, everybody started talking about it and that it is better than SD. Then they also wanted it. I see a noticeable difference between blu-ray quality and streaming materials (even HD) because its compression rate is high). Besides, internet bandwidth still is not up to the download rate required by HD streaming materials (at least here in Canada). So jerking moves, occasional falling back to soft SD materials and degraded quality are frequent in online streaming. However, most people have opted for streaming over blu-ray disks (this time it is also about convenience).

For most people, it is the psychologinal hype and excitement that matters before the perceived improvement. People are buying higher and higher mp cameras not because they can see the difference in quality. Indeed, they haven't been able to see the difference on their 1280x1000 small laptop monitors while they notice the awful low light performance of high mp yet small sensor compact cameras and smart phones. Still what they want is higher mp even though they cannot see the difference.

People start buying 4k TV's and projectors once this psychological hype is created in the minds of consumers and that is one of the reasons, manufacturers are slowing down the transition from 2k to 4k until people are ready.

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post #25 of 74 Old 11-29-2013, 03:49 PM
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Originally Posted by AV_Integrated View Post

Unfortunately, I think your statement is inaccurate. I think most of us HERE would rather have the disc, but it seems that more and more people just want access through streaming. The new MP3 is the video stream. People are buying discs, but downloads continue to rise more and more.

I do expect that a Blu-ray 4K standard will emerge and that future players will support BD4K discs in much the same manner that BD3D discs and players just came to market and started being a standard. I mean, if you drop $3,000ish on a 4K projector, what's another 100 bucks for a 4K BD player so you can buy discs?

I will agree People will like to see streaming over disc, That's not Remotely Practical in America.. average bit rate for network and cable tv is 13 to 15Mbps.. While Blu ray movies are 24-30Mbps. So Broadcast Don't even have or wanna use the Bandwidth to give us quality Imagines.. And HD streaming 720p online is bit rate of 5mbps/8bit = 0.654MB x60sec=39MB per minute x 60 minutes so that's 2.3 gb per hour.. and 1080p is 6 to 12 mbps so i'll say 8mbps is 3.6 Gb per hour.. Now 4k Is suppose to have a blu ray bit rate of 40 Mbps.. According to Netflix 4k streaming will require a 15Mbps Connection.. that's 6.7 GB PER HOUR..

Now that we have the math out of the way, Lets talk about how impractical that is.. The average home has 7-8 mbps. So those folks are out.. 4G networks as of today all have limited Bandwidth caps either for total bandwidth or for tethering Verizon lte can hit 50 Mbps yet they have a monthly 10gb cap. for their highest Package. Comcast is now offering what up to 100 Mbps yet their still capping at 250 gb per month. 3.5 for 1080p even streaming 3 episodes at 1080 or 4 at 720p Will push you over the cap. Let known adding a few 4k movies.. smaller cable companies have 70-100gb caps.

You see why Streaming is gonna be an issue? Unless you have fios or have an internet company that is really relax about bandwidth streaming video ads up quickly.. I personally have a 35 Mbps connection and for me That's way to slow.. My isp has a peek time monthly cap of 250gb from 5pm - 1am.. Outside of that its all you can eat.. I'm a heavy downloader so i use close to 4 to 500 GB On a average month and 700-900 gb on a busy month. Now if i was forced to stream. I would be limited due to caps. and that's why 4k blu ray's will be people's number 1 choice by default.. maybe in 5 to 10 years when isp's finally reach China and japan with 1GPS nation wide unlimited will return.,. and we'll all stream freely
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post #26 of 74 Old 11-29-2013, 07:06 PM
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This is my thinking about 4K projector prices

2011 -Sony 1000es at $25,000
2013 - Sony 500/600es at $15,000
2014 - JVC/Sony at $12,000
2015 - Different brands at $8000-$10,000
2016 - $5000 4K projectors
2017 - $3500 4k projectors
2018 - $2500-3000 4k projectors, then 8k hits the market
This:
2004 - (3/15/2004) - Sony Qualia-004 - $27,000
2004 - (9/8/2004) - JVC DLA-HD2K-SYS - $16,000
2005 - (11/15/2005) - Sony VPL-VW100 - $9,000
2006 - (9/14/2006) - Optoma HD81 - $10,000 (DLP enters market)
2006 - (10/1/2006) - Sony VPL-VW50 - $3,499 (that's 2.5 years from $25,000 to about $3,000!!!)
2006 - (10/15/2006) - Mits. HC5000BL - $4,995
2006 - (11/10/2006) - Panasonic AE1000 - $6,000 (what was the real street price on this model?) - LCD enters game
2007 - Late 2007 saw a number of models come to market with an MSRP right about $3,000 including the InFocus IN81, Panasonic AE2000, Sanyo PLV-Z2000 ($2,500 MSRP!), and the Epson 1080UB

That's 3 years. Call it 3.5 years between the debut of the Sony Qualia 1080p projector at $25,000 and an introduction of sub $3,000 1080p projectors from other manufacturers.

Perhaps we are running a bit slower on this one than we were with 1080p, but projectors were late to the 1080p game IMO in 2004. Now, we are on par with other display manufacturers, but competition I believe will get fierce very quickly and we will see pricing drop substantially within just a few years. I wouldn't say 2018, but between 2015 and 2016 would be more accurate on this.

Keep in mind the release date for the Sony 1000es is listed as 2/11/2012, even if it was announced in 2011. So, we are pretty much on track with this to match up to what we saw from 1080p right now. In fact, we are really close to being on track with this. I'm betting we will see MSRP in the $3,000-$4,000 range by late 2015 and actual selling prices below $3,000 by Christmas 2015.

Two years. I would bet on it. biggrin.gif

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post #27 of 74 Old 11-29-2013, 07:26 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AV_Integrated View Post

This:
2004 - (3/15/2004) - Sony Qualia-004 - $27,000
2004 - (9/8/2004) - JVC DLA-HD2K-SYS - $16,000
2005 - (11/15/2005) - Sony VPL-VW100 - $9,000
2006 - (9/14/2006) - Optoma HD81 - $10,000 (DLP enters market)
2006 - (10/1/2006) - Sony VPL-VW50 - $3,499 (that's 2.5 years from $25,000 to about $3,000!!!)
2006 - (10/15/2006) - Mits. HC5000BL - $4,995
2006 - (11/10/2006) - Panasonic AE1000 - $6,000 (what was the real street price on this model?) - LCD enters game
2007 - Late 2007 saw a number of models come to market with an MSRP right about $3,000 including the InFocus IN81, Panasonic AE2000, Sanyo PLV-Z2000 ($2,500 MSRP!), and the Epson 1080UB

That's 3 years. Call it 3.5 years between the debut of the Sony Qualia 1080p projector at $25,000 and an introduction of sub $3,000 1080p projectors from other manufacturers.

Perhaps we are running a bit slower on this one than we were with 1080p, but projectors were late to the 1080p game IMO in 2004. Now, we are on par with other display manufacturers, but competition I believe will get fierce very quickly and we will see pricing drop substantially within just a few years. I wouldn't say 2018, but between 2015 and 2016 would be more accurate on this.

Keep in mind the release date for the Sony 1000es is listed as 2/11/2012, even if it was announced in 2011. So, we are pretty much on track with this to match up to what we saw from 1080p right now. In fact, we are really close to being on track with this. I'm betting we will see MSRP in the $3,000-$4,000 range by late 2015 and actual selling prices below $3,000 by Christmas 2015.

Two years. I would bet on it. biggrin.gif

Its been 2 years and 4k projectors have went from $25k-15K. I can see a $12k projector next year, maybe even $10K. That will be 3 years. So, you are saying early to mid 2015, they will drop from $10k-12k to under $3000? DLP hasn't even brought a 4k consumer projector to the market yet, and I doubt it will be under $10K when the first ones hit. I hope so, but I just don't see it. Unless they take a lot of shortcuts. Look at the LED projectors, all of them under $10K are just built cheap with bad PQ. 4K projectors need to have superior optics, brighter for bigger screens, and superior video processing. Look at a good 1080p projector like the Epsons 5010/5020/5030. They are around $2500 and has been that way for 3 years. Adding a better video processor, better optics, and brighter will not leave it at $3000 I think. I wish they could. I can see companies making cheap plastic or even cheap glass lens with weak video processing that takes a 4K input for under $3000. Who know how it will look with those shortcuts, and will a good 1080p projector still look better? You may be right.
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post #28 of 74 Old 11-29-2013, 08:02 PM
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I certainly won't talk about quality, but a big hold up in this entire endeavor is the 4K processing chips and the HDMI 2.0 chipset. Those two items are hurdles which are going to be addressed by major components manufacturers in the upcoming year as we see more and more LCD displays reach into the 4K market and we see a demand by all display manufacturers for good 4K native chipsets. Now, the processing will vary from manufacturer to manufacturer, but certainly, we will see those chip sets drop in price dramatically. Keep in mind 15 years ago a Faroudja line doubler was $25,000 by itself - no projector - and is surpassed in quality by what you find inside your typical $500 television today. Chip level image processing is big business and is hit incredibly hard by economies of scale, so when they start producing a good chip, the prices of that chip will fall to just a few dollars instead of thousands of dollars.

Yes, the optics SHOULD be made better, but certainly the optics around 1080p have been pretty well refined by most manufacturers. I'm not sure how much of a jump in cost there will be associated with that in turn for just a refinement. Always better optics will cost significantly more and JVC and Sony have been pretty good about holding their costs above others.

But, per my list above, and keeping mind that the Sony was not released in 2011, so we aren't really looking at 2 years, but about 1.5 years so far, we have tracked very close to 1080p. Also, if you want a 600ES for under $11K let me know. Really, we've dropped by over half in a year and a half, and things will accelerate downward to the $3,000 level shockingly quickly when DLP and LCD join the market. If DLP doesn't jump in quick but Epson releases a 4K LCD chip, then DLP will miss out on the sales associated and you better believe that Epson will be out fast with a 'cheap' 4K projector. They have a history of this, and they've performed well when they've jumped on the market with quality product. (ie: 1080UB setting the industry on edge)

We have 1080p projectors which perform remarkably well for under $1,000. Very good projectors right around $3,000. Spending a lot more, doesn't get you much more right now really.

So, with the hottest selling models being closer to $1,000 you better believe that to gain that mid-level share back at $3,000 the push by the industry will be for 4K at that price point very quickly.

I will say I am rarely wrong when it comes to these types of predictions and I've been following this market extremely closely for over a decade now.

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post #29 of 74 Old 11-29-2013, 09:05 PM
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While I've followed the market fairly closely for a few years, I think AV_I is about right and think we'll see decent 4K PJ's at the $3000 price point before 2015 is out. I wouldn't be surprised at a few sub-$10k models at CEDIA in 2014 and easily sub-$5K in 2015. For the 1080 to 4K comparison, we're at the equivalent of spring 2005 right now.

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post #30 of 74 Old 11-29-2013, 09:48 PM
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Sony 1000ES was shipped in December 2011, and I saw one in January 2012. The 500/600ES was shipped this month, so its been 2 years since consumer 4K projectors been available. I don't see them being under $3000 in 18 months. Can't wait to say I told you so smile.gif
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