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Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Clovis, California
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UHD 4K content will consume just 50% more bandwidth than Blu-ray, based on content storage requirements I have seen.
Let's just suppose you are right and they start broadcasting in 4k. Let's assume they increase bandwidth needs by the same amount. Currently HD on full ATSC standards is 19.3mbit, IIRC. That would put 4K content at just a hair under 30mbit. To personally consume over 100 mbit, I would have to simultaneously watch or record 4 games in full 4K. I cannot even do that in HD right now.
To scale that up, you are expecting that maybe 4 members of the family all want to simultaneously watch 4 different programs and none of those programs are going to overlap and all are available in 4K and being aired at the same time. More of a problem than how I will get a 300mbps connection will be where the hell am I going to be able to put up sixteen 4K displays in my home.
If we "need" that much bandwidth in the future, I suspect it will largely be caused by inefficient coding. Look at the growth curve and try to see how eventually we don't need more. Increasing 10x in 10 years. Do that 3 times and we are 1000x faster in 30 years. 1,000,000 times faster in 60 years. As of January 1 of this year, there were about 16,640 Bluray movies that have been released in the US, including "adult" titles. That means in 60 years we could download every single Bu-ray title released over the first 12 years of its existence but in 4K UHD with lossless Atmos audio in less than 9 seconds.
I believe we are already in the area of diminishing returns on Internet speeds for those already at the top end of the connection speed. The bigger benefit for society will not be moving me from 100mbit to 1 or 10gbps, but getting the entire world (including rural locations) up to the 100mbit speed we have in certain locations.