Quote:
Originally Posted by
mcnarus
The 0% case can just as easily be explained by transposing the two versions in his mind and simply not re-checking. That is, say he listens to A and B and notes their differences. He then goes through the five randomized samples and does notice a difference each time... but consistently presses B when he meant A and vice versa because he transposed which version was which. That's not being a moron, that's just being mildly forgetful.
If he did it once, yeah. But 5 times in a row? Come on.
You don't do if five times in a row -- you transpose A and B once and then use that transposition during the test. That's an extremely common thing to do. I was just doing hinge mortises the other day where I started out knowing that I had to set my jig for hinges but somehow early on switched that around in my head and instead set the jig for strike plates. I repeated this for all the hinges and it wasn't until I was done that I realized I had transposed the settings in my first step.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
mcnarus
I maintain that neither 0% nor 100% can be easily explained by either good or bad guessing, since a 3% chance is too slim to use any kind of guessing as a pat answer.
It's not a pat answer. It's a proper statistical inference. Black swans happen. Trying to rationalize them away is bad statistics. That's what you're guilty of here.
Possible, but unlikely. It's FAR more possible that he really did detect a difference of some sort consistently and just transposed his choices.
Really? What's the probability? We know the probability of bad guessing, and it's non-zero. You're just pulling a probability out of your nether reaches here.
Well, I guess we understand probability in different ways. I was always decent at math but I can't claim any high degrees specializing on that. If you have a mathematics degree, then I'd like to know what elementary error I'm making.
Because this does look elementary to me -- something you'd cover in Probability 101 in any college or advanced high school. A 3% chance means "unlikely" and "unlikely" means that even though, yes, black swans happen, any random swan is probably NOT black. If you're a betting man and the odds are only 3% that you're right, then your best bet is to fold.
Put one more way -- if I only have a 3% chance of consistently guessing a series of answers and I do consistently get the answers, then it's a fool's bet to say that I guessed -- probability theory says that I am far more likely to have known the answers than just guessed them.