Is the End of Physical Media Inevitable? - Page 16 - AVS Forum
View Poll Results: Is the End of Physical Media Inevitable?
Yes, physical media will quickly disappear altogether 23 2.16%
Yes, physical media will slowly disappear altogether 198 18.63%
No, new physical formats will continue to be developed 371 34.90%
No, but physical media will become a niche market for enthusiasts 471 44.31%
Voters: 1063. You may not vote on this poll

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post #451 of 920 Old 04-23-2013, 05:50 AM
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"600~700 movies" taking a lot of storage room? Let me help those who are not fully informed about movie ripping. I have a lot (1,000+) of high definition movies, some in 720p and some in 1080p quality, with most having DTS digital surround sound. When I rip a blueray, I use H.264 with the highest quality settings for both audio and video. Anyone would be hard pressed to tell the difference between the original Blue Disc and the ripped version. My rips are generally in the 15-20GB range, with a few larger than that.

My collection uses several 2TB and 3TB hard drives, plus the same for backup. I've got an HTPC running XBMC (Frodo, v12.1) that plays back everything, nearly regardless of video format. With (4) drives plus and SSD in the HTPC, all high-def movies are in the same mid-tower case. Who needs/wants DVD's that takes up lots of room, are much less organized/searchable and can get physically damaged? With massive 2TB+ portable drives, backup is fairly quick, and everything fits in a shoebox.

I haven't used DVDs for movie playback in a few years, and I'm not regretting it at all.
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post #452 of 920 Old 04-23-2013, 05:50 AM
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Well, speaking for audio only, I've had and really enjoyed and loved all of vinyl, casette, CD and drive-based media players. The thing about CDs that I really like is the tangible "album concept" ... you pay for an artist (both the musicians and the package designers/graphic artist etc). The concept of well-designed "album" with tracks more-or-less thought out in some logical order seems to be disappearing. I have ripped much of my modest CD collection (as wav) and organized on a HD for either USB connection to my receiver or for DLNA streaming over WiFi to my receiver. This works extremely well for CD audio bandwidths (16bit/44kHz) over WiFi or ~ 1.4Mbitr/sec. However I STILL find using my CD player a more pleasing and intuitive experience. Personally I find the best solution is a Blu-ray disc player that also supports HD audio and video by both attached USB drives and also DLNA streaming (e.g. OPPO Digital players).
But then there is the whole area of smartphones and virtual access to your audio tracks and of course the audio quality, virtually organizing your tracks. So much of it boils down to your personal taste in these areas. We would also like to think that in 20 years our vast collections of audio/video will be "playable" without having to spend countless hours migrating to whatever the technology of that decade is.
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post #453 of 920 Old 04-23-2013, 06:15 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LarZman View Post

"600~700 movies" taking a lot of storage room? Let me help those who are not fully informed about movie ripping. I have a lot (1,000+) of high definition movies, some in 720p and some in 1080p quality, with most having DTS digital surround sound. When I rip a blueray, I use H.264 with the highest quality settings for both audio and video. Anyone would be hard pressed to tell the difference between the original Blue Disc and the ripped version. My rips are generally in the 15-20GB range, with a few larger than that.
I'm coming from another direction. I've been a TiVo owner for over a dozen years, and now that Turner Movie Classics is doing HD telecine and restorations of classic films and broadcasting them in ATSC HD, I've been filling up gigabyte drives with movies, documentaries and other content that I want to hold on to. I've been making RAID arrays for years, but now I'm dumping the big server hardware for much more compact NAS appliances. I recently upgraded my first one from 4x1TB to 4x2TB, and added a second with 4x3TB, giving me ~15TB of online LAN storage.

I just don't buy many movies. Never have. When I bought my first BluRay disc, there was no software to rip it with. Maybe one day I'll rip the handful of BluRay discs that I own. Since they're already H.264 encoded, that's done for me. smile.gif

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I've got an HTPC running XBMC (Frodo, v12.1) that plays back everything, nearly regardless of video format.
For me, even rigging up a PC to do home movies is too much work. Fortunately for me I have a TV that has a DLNA client built-in, and NAS appliances (and a Linux box) with DLNA servers. Not ideal, but a minimum of effort to do.

It's interesting that just yesterday I was discussing the very same topic on another video forum.

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post #454 of 920 Old 04-23-2013, 06:27 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutron77 View Post

Well, speaking for audio only, I've had and really enjoyed and loved all of vinyl, casette, CD and drive-based media players. The thing about CDs that I really like is the tangible "album concept" ... you pay for an artist (both the musicians and the package designers/graphic artist etc). The concept of well-designed "album" with tracks more-or-less thought out in some logical order seems to be disappearing.
I'm guessing that you grew up in the 70s like me. biggrin.gif The slim spike in the time line where album-oriented music was king. Before it was "45s" (cheap 7 inch phono disks), and after it's the MP3 single. Of course there's the fact that so many "LP" style albums are made up of one good tune and a bunch of filler. If it's good enough, I'll buy the CD and rip it to my music playing system. If not I'll buy the 99¢ MP3.

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I have ripped much of my modest CD collection (as wav) and organized on a HD for either USB connection to my receiver or for DLNA streaming over WiFi to my receiver. This works extremely well for CD audio bandwidths (16bit/44kHz) over WiFi or ~ 1.4Mbitr/sec. However I STILL find using my CD player a more pleasing and intuitive experience.
I used to transcribe my records to Compact Cassette to make "mix tapes", so to me the ability to pick and choose from my entire music collection is a dream come true.

Not to get too technical, but using Wi-Fi as a distribution medium pretty much negates any quality improvements you get from ripping your music from CD first. The spinning disc is a poor time base, but sending packets over a crowded radio band induces jitter many orders of magnitude greater. For music listening, a cable (copper or optical) still can't be beat.
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post #455 of 920 Old 04-23-2013, 06:35 AM
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I agree that media streaming video services such as Netflix should allow you to download all content to your hard drive and watch it anywhere as long as you pay each month's flat fee. And they need to not have just limited rights or limited time in which you can view a movie or TV series, rather it should be always available to watch,

Until that happens physical media will still be here, because people want reliable ways to watch what they want when they want, not when the movie studios deem it or taketh' away from you.mad.gif
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post #456 of 920 Old 04-23-2013, 07:10 AM
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Originally Posted by Nebiroth View Post

I agree with an earlier poster: what is really driving this is a massive push from the content providers. Whilst they were always happy with the revenues from "home video" (i.e., that sold on permanent physical media, such as VHS, DVD and BluRay) they were never happy with the result.

With a physical copy, once you have bought it, it is yours to do with as you wish. You can watch it as often as you like, on any player you like - and you can even resell it if you don't want it any more. With DVD and BluRay, the international market became very important.

DVD was always designed as a single-world market: the idea was, you would be able to buy a disc from anywhere and play it on any player, anywhere in the world. Region coding was really a late addition, which is why it is so weak and easy to defeat, because the content providers wanted to protect things like cinema revenues: they were afraid that the viewers would start to break their monopoly of control. So for example, a movie fan here in England would not need to wait for the six months between a Star Wars movie to go to cinemas in the US and England: they could instead buy the movie on DVD and import it.

This gives insight into just how control is always on the agenda.

With streaming (and downloading, although slightly less so), the world actually takes a step backward towards the state we had before: it is, essentially, subscription television.

You never actually own the content; it is, instead, only available at the whim of the content provider. They can pull it any time they like. You like that old 1960's TV show? Wanna watch an episode? Whoops: your streaming service only had time-limited rights, which have no lapsed, or not enough people were watching, so they pulled it. So you're out of luck; unless someone else carries it. It's like being back decades where you watched a show and if you liked it, you waited to see if the broadcaster repeated it.

And, thanks to "geolocking" there will be no more importing shows that got a release in another terrtory, but not your own. Most streaming services analyse things like IP addresses, to make sure you're in a "permitted area". Lots of them also insist that your billing address is inside the domestic area too.

There are lots of shows on Amazon.com's streaming service: living in England, I can't watch them, because they're geolocked. There are ways around this, but they're complicated and expensive.

So welcome to the world of streaming: the world where content providers have absolute control, and where you pay every time you want to watch that favourite episode of Star Trek..at least, until the rights lapse and it's no longer there.

They like it because control is firmly back with them and it does away with all the costs of producing, transporting etc associated with physical media. It's a win-win: for them.

I like owning something on DVD. I don't like the idea of being a suppliant to a digital deity. Moreover, I'm not mobile-obssessed (in fact I find it incomprehensible why anyone would ever want to watch a movie made in glorious high-definition crushed down a narrow internet tube to be squinted at on a tiny screen)

I've no objection to the concept of home servers, where you place your content on a centralised store - you get all the convenience of easy, instant access on all your own devices. But that's not what streaming services is all about. And the push is most definitely towards streaming, not downloading. Downloading is exactly the same as buying a DVD - but without owning a shiny disc. The concept of ownership is the same (although dowload services tend to be geolocked too)

Probably the best post in this thread so far. A lot of people championing "streaming" are referring to their own home network storage systems.... something that won't be possible once the content providers get their way and content is only distributed digitally with heavy handed DRM, no local copies, device authentication, etc.
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post #457 of 920 Old 04-23-2013, 07:12 AM
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They may discontinue production of DVD/Blu-Ray's but I think a newer type of media is on it's way which may be similar to the present media. Netflix, Vudu...etc. are great but unless cable companies improve the bandwidth and we the consumers are able to receive the quality of the A/V to it's fullest advantage like true 5.1-.2, 6.1-.2, 7.1-.2 and so on, the production of disc media will still be around for many years to come. With our shaky A/V market, one can't be guranteed that the digital storage content; (cloud storage), from Netflix, Vudu, Hulu...etc. will still be around as time goes on. Now you can purchase a digital download that will be stored in those companies vaults. But what happens if that company either goes bankrupt or is bought out, you may lose all your digital recordings or may not. Though having a physical copy in your hands will definitely produce the highest level of A/V. Though, Blu-Rays are getting close to the 20 year mark and who knows how long they will last for your personal storage since DVD's and Blu-Ray's use some type of chemical liquid within the platters. Who actually knows how long you may have before that liquid either dries-up, dissolves or alters the content of you A/V. Only time will tell.

As a consumer and heavy collector of DVD's and Blu-Ray's and now leaning towards Blu-Ray's, I find that these online video services are cheap and a great way to view older movies and newer ones as they are released. And then after viewing them, decide which movies you want to add to your collection and purchase them physically. However I do feel purchasing the extra features like 5.1, 6.1 or 7.1 audio is a waste of time and money as you will not be able to get the truest sound as you would from a physical copy.

Anyway, as life changes and as we get older, so will media and how we view and listen to it will also change.

Peace to all. wink.gif
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post #458 of 920 Old 04-23-2013, 07:19 AM
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The first prototype blu-ray players were released in Japan in 2003 with most markets not seeing hardware and software till much later than that. Blu-ray technology is, at most, 10 years old, not 20.

Interesting story right now on Engadget about how iTunes, Amazon VOD and Twitter are down for some users.

Imagine when your ability to watch the movies you paid for is determined by if the companies servers are operating. Might put a crimp in movie night in your home theater.
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post #459 of 920 Old 04-23-2013, 07:43 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kesawi View Post

I switched from physical media 12 months ago and don't believe I would ever go back. The only reason I would use physical media would be to acquire something that I couldn't obtain purely digitally through another channel. Broadband growth is continuous, 20 years ago it took several minutes to download a high resolution jpeg, now it takes several minutes to download a HD TV show, it won't be long before UHD can be downloaded in a few minutes.

Do you really mean download or are you actually referring to streaming?

If you are referring to streaming, believe me, your delight will fade when the streaming series pulls that TV show you love and it effectively disappears.

It seems to me that there is a generation upcoming that very naively thinks that streamed shows and movies are fixed for all eternity. This belief makes it easy to see why they don't see a need for physical media and in fact view streaming as faster and more convenient.

It's a bit like most people don't have their own electrical generators because utility supplied electricity is ubiquitous and (more or less) never fails.

What streaming fans don't realise, however, is their thrall-like status. They are not the content owners - though they feel they are - they are really simply content suppliants.

Noun 1. suppliant - one praying humbly for something; "a suppliant for her favors"
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post #460 of 920 Old 04-23-2013, 07:44 AM
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Vinyl was supposed to "die" as well.
Physical media should always be an option, because of the superior performance and special features normally not found on the streaming services. Plus, with a lot of us with higher performance systems, it is nice to be able to hold things in our hands, rather than have to rely on a computer or network for our entertainment...especially at the current data speeds.
I personally am not inclined to reboot a computer to finish watching a movie or listen to a piece of music.
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post #461 of 920 Old 04-23-2013, 07:56 AM
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Originally Posted by LarZman View Post

"600~700 movies" taking a lot of storage room? Let me help those who are not fully informed about movie ripping. I have a lot (1,000+) of high definition movies, some in 720p and some in 1080p quality, with most having DTS digital surround sound. When I rip a blueray, I use H.264 with the highest quality settings for both audio and video. Anyone would be hard pressed to tell the difference between the original Blue Disc and the ripped version. My rips are generally in the 15-20GB range, with a few larger than that.

My collection uses several 2TB and 3TB hard drives, plus the same for backup. I've got an HTPC running XBMC (Frodo, v12.1) that plays back everything, nearly regardless of video format. With (4) drives plus and SSD in the HTPC, all high-def movies are in the same mid-tower case. Who needs/wants DVD's that takes up lots of room, are much less organized/searchable and can get physically damaged? With massive 2TB+ portable drives, backup is fairly quick, and everything fits in a shoebox.

I haven't used DVDs for movie playback in a few years, and I'm not regretting it at all.

True, in it's way: but Home Theatre Computers are still very much for the enthusiast. Most households have not the expertise to build a suitable machine (or to buy one, for considerably more expense) let alone begin to tackle the problems of properly setting up and managing XBMC and then ripping and compressing a BluRay collection.

Who wants DVD's? Well, my friend, for one thing you did: because that's how you got your movies in the first place. On physical media.

In fact, I would say that without physical media your whole setup would not exist.

Most of the digital services are not downloading, but streaming. Your setup relies on your owning the content, and with a streaming service you never do. The studios aren't about to allow true downloading to home servers like yout setup, not without massive DRM anyway, because it would make it trivially easy to copy your download to all of your friends.

You haven't abandoned physical media at all. You just replaced optical discs with hard-drives. You still have physical ownership.

With streaming - and that's where the world is going - you just don;t own the content. At all.
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post #462 of 920 Old 04-23-2013, 08:13 AM
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Accurate predictions about what will happen in the future when no time frame is given are simply not possible. Will physical media disappear in a year? No? In 100 years? Maybe. Not likely, though. At worst it will become a niche market, just as vinyl albums and SACDs are today. But I suspect there will always be those of us who like real stuff, stuff we can see and hold and that we can access regardless of what's happening at some server farm or if the Internet goes down.

A couple of things to remember:

- Not everyone even has access to the Internet. Many who do don't have access to anywhere near the kind of speed needed to stream high quality video. I have a cousin who used to live in a house that was so far off the road the cable company wouldn't even talk to him about running cable out to the house. They wouldn't even give him a price. The only option he had was satellite.

Many don't have the most reliable Internet service. I have Verizon's supposedly state-of-the-art fiber option FIOS system but its reliability has been disappointing. I have no interest in being in the middle of a streaming movie and having my Internet go down. We also don't have the most reliable power around here. Long outages are rare, but blips that cause stuff like a cable modem or my FIOS box to go down are more common. Of course, those also turn off my A/V components, but resuming a movie in my player is much simpler than resuming a streaming video.

- For me, at this time the quality isn't there. I have a very nice 7.1 audio system and I want the best source material available for it. Issues like this may well be resolved at some point in the future, but after all the years people have been predicting the death of the CD other people are still buying CDs for a variety of reasons including the fact that CD-quality music downloads are still a niche product.
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post #463 of 920 Old 04-23-2013, 08:21 AM
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Full disclosure: I work with the content companies directly, and often with their in-home distribution divisions (the folks who make, package and sell physical media).

In the shortest possible terms - yes, physical media will die out as a distribution mechanism, however it is going to take a long time (15 years-ish) and it is directly contingent on the cost of bandwidth dropping and caps on bandwidth going up or away, as well as the ability to get the UltraViolet CFF working globally. Additionally, the industry on the whole is going to need to work out a global pricing model and figure out how to conform rights models to a globally applicable framework, a reality that is both necessary and ugly (and some suggest, impossible).

Here's how I see this playing out:

Phase 1: The Hybrid Years (2013-2016) Consumers increasingly abandon physical media as services like Netflix, Vudu, Amazon and LoveFilm provide increasingly large collections of great content and being "offline" becomes the exception for most people. LTE network build-outs accelerate the growth of streaming. Electronic Sell Through becomes an increasing part of a shrinking business of selling content, until eventually, it is the dominant form of media sell through. To most people, the only compelling selling point for owning media is that it plays offline. For a tiny minority of people, picture and sound quality are the important reasons to own media (in physical form).

Cable TV Companies enter the sell-through market and make their set-top boxes a better media center with the ability to store and share files locally using the device formerly known as a DVR as an in-home EST warehouse (For example, copy shows to your iPad from your DVR for offline consumption - stuff like this is in-market now, but not widely used).

"Disc to Digital" schemes grow, Apple launches a "Movie Match" service for DVDs and BRD (just like Vudu) but it is not connected to UltraViolet and includes all Disney titles, unlike everyone else. Apple's home media device (formerly Apple TV) regains storage via an internal 500GB+ SSD, stores the kid's movies that they play endlessly, and streams everything else, storing a local copy of all streamed shows for possible "rent to own" capability (and filling out the full resolution of the title). The device might ship pre-loaded with your purchased movies and definitely has the ability to synch with your iTunes account and all iDevices.

Phase 2: The Manufacturing On Demand years (2016-2020) Discs are still made and distributed to stores, however, their decline continues until there is a point where mass-market retailers are forced to implement a "manufacturing on demand" model where a physical copy of a title is burned and packaged in the photo lab of Wal Mart and Target. When you buy a title, if you want a physical copy, you'll need to go to the store for one or buy an authorized "in-home" system from Samsung, Sony or whatever. You'll likely pay extra for the ISO that makes a "physical copy" possibleif you buy EST. Game consoles abandon disc players. You can still buy home disc players, but there are fewer choices and eventually, availability of players is via online shopping only or a few stores scattered in various cities globally. Like CRT manufacturing, eventually, the capability to design and build disc players is found in only two factories in Hangzu and one in Taipei.

Phase 3: The Nigel Years (2020+). There's always some guy named Nigel somewhere who is the foremost expert on some arcane topic like bat guano or technology like telegraph keys. By now, physical media is an arcane area of interest only to 100 to 300 thousand Nigel types globally. Like mechanical typewriters, there is a community of passionate advocates for physical media, exchanging ideas and swapping increasingly rare hardware to maintain access to their physical media collections. Niche companies spring up to service this market (think Vinyl records ecosystem today) but it remains a bit of an oddfellows club. Discs continue to exist, but like wax cylinders and 4-track reel-to-reel and cassettes and CD's the machinery to read the media grows increasingly rare until eventually it is simply gone.

This is my own opinion of the path, based on working as a consultant to the business for the last few years.
I could be wrong. Your mileage may vary. Ask your doctor before reading my post. The internet has been known to cause digestive difficulties and flatulence and toxic shock. Don't drink soap. Etc....
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post #464 of 920 Old 04-23-2013, 08:35 AM
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You really think we're going to go from a thriving $16B disc business and millions of households with crappy substandard internet to the "Nigel period" in just 7 years? Even in the mid 90's when I worked in a retail electronics store there were plenty of people buying tape decks and those had been "dead" for five or more years.
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post #465 of 920 Old 04-23-2013, 08:36 AM
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On one hand, streaming is the Holy Grail of content control for the studios, with streaming they can cut at least a couple of middle men out of the distribution path, squelch the majority of black market activity (assuming they can block capturing of streamed content) and control pricing, so they will absolutely push the growth of streaming and the death of physical media. On the other hand, until the studios are able to provide true HD streamed content, I mean Blu Ray or 4K level, and the broadband service providers can provide sufficient bandwidth to reliably get the stream into our homes, there will be a market for HD media. I have Netflix streaming now, and the picture quality of the HD content is passable, but for the best viewing experience I go rent a Blu Ray or watch one from my collection.
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post #466 of 920 Old 04-23-2013, 08:39 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LarZman View Post

I have a lot (1,000+) of high definition movies, some in 720p and some in 1080p quality

With all due respect, I don't consider 720p true high definition and I wouldn't buy physical media at that resolution if they made it as long as 1080p is available.
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with most having DTS digital surround sound.

Which is not lossless.
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When I rip a blueray, I use H.264 with the highest quality settings for both audio and video. Anyone would be hard pressed to tell the difference between the original Blue Disc and the ripped version.

I have a nice audio system, not the best by any means, but a good bit better than average. My surrounds, for example are flat ±2 dB from 40 Hz - 22kHz and every speaker is powered with its own 200 watt monoblock amp. I want the best quality source I can get. I'm happy that you're happy with compressed audio, but I have no interest in compromising either the video I watch or its audio simply for the sake of convenience, not even a little bit. That's just a tradeoff I'm not willing to make regardless of the space it would take up on a hard drive.
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My collection uses several 2TB and 3TB hard drives, plus the same for backup. I've got an HTPC running XBMC (Frodo, v12.1) that plays back everything, nearly regardless of video format. With (4) drives plus and SSD in the HTPC, all high-def movies are in the same mid-tower case. Who needs/wants DVD's that takes up lots of room, are much less organized/searchable and can get physically damaged? With massive 2TB+ portable drives, backup is fairly quick, and everything fits in a shoebox.

My sense is that people who go this route are either geeks or people with lots of money who are willing to spend some of it on expensive commercial plug-and-play systems installed by their high end audio dealer. This is a very niche market. Nothing against geeks, mind you. What you say here sounds exactly like something I'd expect my son to say, but not his wife, or any of my neighbors, or anyone else I've personally known. You guys are out there, but you do not represent the masses.
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post #467 of 920 Old 04-23-2013, 08:39 AM
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Yes.
The iphone is less than 7 years old. Consumers adopt and abandon technology quickly.
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post #468 of 920 Old 04-23-2013, 08:40 AM
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"plenty of people buying tape decks and those had been "dead" for five or more years."

The death of the players comes long after the death of the physical media the players use. Try to buy music on cassette. But I can still buy a cassette player.
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post #469 of 920 Old 04-23-2013, 08:42 AM
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and the medium with the greatest physical longevity is .... microfiche!
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post #470 of 920 Old 04-23-2013, 08:52 AM
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Originally Posted by jonwpdx View Post

...until the studios are able to provide true HD streamed content, I mean Blu Ray or 4K level, and the broadband service providers can provide sufficient bandwidth to reliably get the stream into our homes, there will be a market for HD media. I have Netflix streaming now, and the picture quality of the HD content is passable, but for the best viewing experience I go rent a Blu Ray or watch one from my collection.

Again, insider's perspective here - follow the money.

Very few people actually care about quality. It's been noted that most people can't tell an SD picture from an HD picture. Think of all the TV screen you see with squish/stretch images in public venues. The real issue isn't even picture quality, it's access vs. ownership. Here's the harsh truth, learned from many, many contextual inquiries into mass-market consumer behaviors. Excepting kids titles, movies are a single-use product, like a kleenex. Most people collected movies not to watch them over and over, but because access to movies used to require a trip to the video rental place, and as that need declines, it's just easier to click "play now" on a streaming service and be done with it.

This is a direct extension of a much larger trend in the marketplace, which is a decline in the "ownership" economy. Perhaps the best example of this is Zip Car - a service that eliminates the need for people to own a car. But less people own homes, pets, cars and TV's these days - and this is a trend that is accelerating. Collections of media are the antithesis of this ethos and I think that the decline in the purchase of physical media is simply an ancillary effect of this larger trend. Venture beat calls it "disownership" and they have a neat article on it:

Excerpt:
"Consumer attitudes and behaviors surrounding renting, borrowing, and leasing items, versus ownership, are shifting around the country, according to a study conducted by Sunrun and Harris Interactive. The survey of 2,252 adults found that 52% of Americans have chosen to rent, borrow, or lease items instead of buy them in the past two years. Twenty-four percent of Americans are more likely to engage in disownership now than five years ago, and 49% plan to “disown” traditionally-owned items in the next two years.
“These results show we’ve entered an age in which Americans recognize they can get more value by owning less,” said Sunrun cofounder and CEO Lynn Jurich. “At the same time, smart companies are creating innovative business models that offer consumers more flexible choices for accessing the things they want and need. Disownership represents a major cultural shift in consumer behavior- a shift that benefits our wallets, our planet and our communities.”

Read more at http://venturebeat.com/2013/04/03/disownership-is-the-new-normal-the-rise-of-the-shared-economy-infographic/#yxYPyIsqJycmx8AC.99
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post #471 of 920 Old 04-23-2013, 08:52 AM
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Based on the premise that the corporations (who control content rights) will pursue any strategy that is most profitable -- I do see the dissemination of physical media as a phenomena they would love to attack. There's only one problem.

From what I see now, most people choose their path first (Blue-Ray, stream or premium cable) and then purchase content based upon their technology preferences.

Based upon the ideal of an un-compressed, seamless streaming technology (which is yet to exist), companies will still have to merchandise their products in a way people want to BUY or RENT them, which is a much simpler task when there is a physical package from a consumer standpoint.

I know downloading is at everyone's fingertips now, but I don't believe that's whats in store for high rez video.

I believe that some form of streaming will co-exist with some form of physical software in the future.


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post #472 of 920 Old 04-23-2013, 09:07 AM
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Originally Posted by boblinds View Post

The content providers will push and push and push streaming and downloadable media until physical media has been eradicated. Then they can completely control the dissemination of their content to ensure that you can't own it and can access it only in those contexts they deem acceptable, profitable, and convenient...for THEM. This issue has nothing to do with technology or quality. It's all about the studios and producers controlling their IP and, ultimately, charging for every viewing.
if this was the goal then why are all studios backing download to own? why are they selling media? They dont have to yet they do. Ive been in many many meetings and conferences with studio heads and ive never heard this mentioned. sounds like conspiracy theory to me.
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post #473 of 920 Old 04-23-2013, 09:11 AM
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Originally Posted by Beatleman1968 View Post

Based on the premise that the corporations (who control content rights) will pursue any strategy that is most profitable -- I do see the dissemination of physical media as a phenomena they would love to attack. There's only one problem.

From what I see now, most people choose their path first (Blue-Ray, stream or premium cable) and then purchase content based upon their technology preferences.

Based upon the ideal of an un-compressed, seamless streaming technology (which is yet to exist), companies will still have to merchandise their products in a way people want to BUY or RENT them, which is a much simpler task when there is a physical package from a consumer standpoint.

I know downloading is at everyone's fingertips now, but I don't believe that's whats in store for high rez video.

I believe that some form of streaming will co-exist with some form of physical software in the future.


Harry

Quote:
Originally Posted by Martin Focazio View Post

Again, insider's perspective here - follow the money.

Very few people actually care about quality. It's been noted that most people can't tell an SD picture from an HD picture. Think of all the TV screen you see with squish/stretch images in public venues. The real issue isn't even picture quality, it's access vs. ownership. Here's the harsh truth, learned from many, many contextual inquiries into mass-market consumer behaviors. Excepting kids titles, movies are a single-use product, like a kleenex. Most people collected movies not to watch them over and over, but because access to movies used to require a trip to the video rental place, and as that need declines, it's just easier to click "play now" on a streaming service and be done with it.

This is a direct extension of a much larger trend in the marketplace, which is a decline in the "ownership" economy. Perhaps the best example of this is Zip Car - a service that eliminates the need for people to own a car. But less people own homes, pets, cars and TV's these days - and this is a trend that is accelerating. Collections of media are the antithesis of this ethos and I think that the decline in the purchase of physical media is simply an ancillary effect of this larger trend. Venture beat calls it "disownership" and they have a neat article on it:

Excerpt:
"Consumer attitudes and behaviors surrounding renting, borrowing, and leasing items, versus ownership, are shifting around the country, according to a study conducted by Sunrun and Harris Interactive. The survey of 2,252 adults found that 52% of Americans have chosen to rent, borrow, or lease items instead of buy them in the past two years. Twenty-four percent of Americans are more likely to engage in disownership now than five years ago, and 49% plan to “disown” traditionally-owned items in the next two years.
“These results show we’ve entered an age in which Americans recognize they can get more value by owning less,” said Sunrun cofounder and CEO Lynn Jurich. “At the same time, smart companies are creating innovative business models that offer consumers more flexible choices for accessing the things they want and need. Disownership represents a major cultural shift in consumer behavior- a shift that benefits our wallets, our planet and our communities.”

Read more at http://venturebeat.com/2013/04/03/disownership-is-the-new-normal-the-rise-of-the-shared-economy-infographic/#yxYPyIsqJycmx8AC.99
This is also because. of the current economy. Zip cars are not the norm though. interesting that home sales are now surging again this spring.
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post #474 of 920 Old 04-23-2013, 09:16 AM
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If phonorecords can stage a comeback, physical movie media in whatever form will, too. I see DVD, BD, and 4K movies on huge flash drives a-coming.

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post #475 of 920 Old 04-23-2013, 09:19 AM
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Originally Posted by Beatleman1968 View Post


I know downloading is at everyone's fingertips now, but I don't believe that's whats in store for high rez video.

I believe that some form of streaming will co-exist with some form of physical software in the future.


Harry

That's the "rent-to-own" model that is still developing. At this time, streaming buffers are highly limited to (ineffectively) prevent copying of streamed content. However, that may change and you may see some kind of clever progressive file builder come to market.
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post #476 of 920 Old 04-23-2013, 09:20 AM
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This is also because. of the current economy. Zip cars are not the norm though. interesting that home sales are now surging again this spring.

Something can't be a trend and the norm at the same time. Zipcars are a trend. Online delivery of entertainment is a trend. Eventually, popular trends become the norm. In cities, Zipcars are the norm. In rural settings, Zipcars make no sense at all—but the overall trend will be in Zipcars favor, because for each vehicle added their fleet, fifteen private vehicles come off the road. 

 

*as a Zipcar user I should mention that convenience is a large part of the appeal. Never having to worry about cleaning or maintenance. Being able to choose the right vehicle for the job. Only rarely having to deal with a car that has less than 1/4 tank of gas.

 

It's just a guess, but someday in the future, self-driving cars might bring the Zipcar model to more rural areas, because the car comes to the customer.

 

---------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Home sales had to experience a rebound. There was pent-up demand, as well as a surge of investment into developing under priced properties.

 

When it comes to digital media, ownership matters a lot more to me for music than it does with movies. Most of the time, I watch a movie once and I'm done with it. No movie gets replayed dozens of times, the way albums do.


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post #477 of 920 Old 04-23-2013, 09:29 AM
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I feel that physical media will eventually disapear but not until all of those of us that own physical media die. There is something about going to the CD cabinet to select an album to listen to. There is much to do about the tactile qualities of handling the physical media and being that much closer to the artist. I am also this way with books. I tried an electronic reader but it just does not feel like a book and the experience is lessoned reading this way.
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Let me be clear: It is very much in my own financial interest to sustain the sell-though market. The clients I work with pay us based on sell-through of media, and I can assure you - it's a huge business, no doubt, but all of the growth - not some of it ALL of it - for in-home is coming from streaming services. Without exception. And, while I can't say much more, it's clear that 2013-2014 is going to really change the math on in-home distribution so it favors streaming even more.

And, for the most part, the niche of the videophile market will be a good and profitable but very small business, and I do think that bandwidth (which has nice margins) will come down in price in the USA in the next 5 years. In short - if you want 4K movies - and are willing to pay more for them - there will definitely be a download-to-own model out there, most likely the studios themselves via UltraViolet CFF.

I just don't see the cost/benefit models of disc making and distribution in the current model as being sustainable much longer. Yes, it's a 16Bln dollar business with good margins, but there's a whole lot of costs built-in to that model that can turn into gross revenue if the distribution shifts from physical to digital. Basically, a shift to a volume business of digital distribution with lower margins than disc (but higher margins than streaming rental) will, ultimately, be a good business, it's just the mayhem of virtualization of the supply chain that's going to make videophile quality media distribution secondary for a few years.
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post #479 of 920 Old 04-23-2013, 09:41 AM
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Originally Posted by TowerGrove View Post

if this was the goal then why are all studios backing download to own? why are they selling media? They dont have to yet they do. Ive been in many many meetings and conferences with studio heads and ive never heard this mentioned. sounds like conspiracy theory to me.

Here's why.

A streaming VOD rental generates $0.20 to $1.20 in revenue to the studio.

A Download to Own priced at $14.99 (which seems to be the price they are settling on) generates $10-12 revenue.
The margins on download to own are so good it's almost comical - far better than disc. So if you're going to sustain an ownership model, and you can keep the business from going off the cliff with a higher-margin product that helps make the ride down softer, by all means, pursue that.
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post #480 of 920 Old 04-23-2013, 09:43 AM
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I feel that physical media will eventually disapear but not until all of those of us that own physical media die. There is something about going to the CD cabinet to select an album to listen to. There is much to do about the tactile qualities of handling the physical media and being that much closer to the artist. I am also this way with books. I tried an electronic reader but it just does not feel like a book and the experience is lessoned reading this way.

Using the internet to interact with an artist and also watch/listen/read all sorts or related material brings me a lot closer than a CD case and booklet. I guess there are some artists who still do the limited release thing on disc, but for the most part CD packaging is coming out of a factory—I don't get that feeling of "connection" like I used to.

 

I bought one CD this year (and probably 20 albums off of iTunes) and I have no idea where the disc or the case went because I ripped it immediately. 


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